How to Navigate the Era of Trump

Published

6 months ago

December 18, 2024

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Many friends of mine are pretty deep in the slough of despond. I occasionally plead with them to make their predictions of catastrophe less hopeless and categorical, but with less success than I wish. I respect their points of view but have decided to look elsewhere for advice, and so have turned to a different set of friendsthose sitting on my bookshelves.

Some of these friends have been with me for more than half a century; and they get wiser and more insightful with age. One of the first I turned to is only slightly older than I am: Motivation and Personality, by the academic psychologist Abraham Maslow. The book has a family history: Maslow summered at a lake in Maine in a cabin near one owned by my grandfather, a self-made shoe-factory owner who came to the United States with only the benefit of a grade-school education.

The story goes that Maslow was complaining about his inability to finish writing his magnum opus while surrounded by the clamor of kids and holiday-makers. After a couple of days of this, Sam Cohen turned to him, told him that writing was a job like any other, and that he had set aside an office for him in his factory, and then he ordered (rather than invited) him to go there and finish the book. Maslow did, and I have the authors inscription on the title page to prove it.

Read: A mindset for the Trump era

Maslow thought that psychology had focused excessively on the pathological; he was interested instead in what made for psychological healtha deeper and truer objective, to my mind, than the contemporary quest for happiness, which tends to be ephemeral and occasionally inappropriate to our circumstances.

Here are two relevant bits:

Since for healthy people, the unknown is not frightening, they do not have to spend any time laying the ghost, whistling past the cemetery or otherwise protecting themselves against imagined dangers. They do not neglect the unknown, or deny it, or run away from it, or try to make believe it is really known, nor do they organize, dichotomize, or rubricize it prematurely.

And then this:

They can take the frailties and sins, weaknesses, and evils of human nature in the same unquestioning spirit with which one accepts the characteristics of nature. One does not complain about water because it is wet, or about rocks because they are hard, or about trees because they are green. As the child looks out upon the world with wide, uncritical, undemanding, innocent eyes, simply noting and observing what is the case, without either arguing the matter or demanding that it be otherwise, so does the self-actualizing person tend to look upon human nature in himself and others.

This is, as Maslow says, the stoic style, and one to which a person should aspire in a world where norms are flouted, wild things are done and wilder said, and perils real and imagined loom before us. Maslows healthy individual has little inclination to spluttering outrage, which does not mean ignoring unpleasant realities. Just the reverse, in fact.

Having settled into that frame of mind, what about the matter of predicting Trump-administration policies? Another even older friend, George Orwell, speaks to that one.

Political predictions are usually wrong. But even when one makes a correct one, to discover why one was right can be very illuminating. In general, one is only right when either wish or fear coincides with reality.

This, I suspect, is going to be a particular problem in dealing with the world of Donald Trump. Neither widely shared hopes (that he will ignore Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr., for example, and be more or less normal in most respects) nor fears (that hes going to do whatever he wants, including crazier things yet) will be useful guides. But, being human, we will make judgments constantly distorted by both emotions. Orwell has a solution:

To see what is in front of ones nose needs a constant struggle. One thing that helps toward it is to keep a diary, or, at any rate, to keep some kind of record of ones opinions about important events. Otherwise, when some particularly absurd belief is exploded by events, one may simply forget that one ever held it.

Useful advice from a man who confessed that most of his own predictions during World War II were wrong, although, as I know from experience, his remedy can be a painful corrective.

On what basis, then, should one attempt to predict Trumpian policy? A downright ancient friend comes to the rescue on this one:

Begin the morning by saying to thyself, I shall meet with the busybody, the ungrateful, arrogant, deceitful, envious, unsocial.

This, from Marcus Aurelius, the last good Roman emperor and a thoughtful Stoic philosopher, is not a bad beginning in looking at an administration that will have a few barbarians in it. He continues:

Whatever man you meet, say to yourself at once: what are the principles this man entertains about human goods and ills? For if he has certain principles about pleasure and pain and the sources of these, about honour and dishonour, about death and life, it will not seem surprising or strange to me if he acts in certain ways.

So much of the contemporary speculation about the administration depends on the distinctive personality of the president-elect and some of his more outr advisers and confidantes. But simply ranting about them does not help one understand what is going on.

One of the troubles with the anti-Trump camp is the tendency simply to demonize. Some demonic characters may roam about the administration, but we would be better off trying to figure out what makes Trump tick. In particular, that phrase about honor and dishonor is worth pondering. For a man in his eighth decade with remarkable political success to his credit, who has just survived two assassination attempts, honor in Marcus Aureliuss sense is probably something beyond owning the libs. More likely, Trump is looking to record enduring accomplishments, including a peace deal in Ukraine. Figuring out what he would like those to be, and in what way, is probably the best method of figuring out how to influence him, to the extent that anyone can.

Jonathan Chait: The bizarre normalcy of Trump 2.0

Let us say that we get better at training our judgments and anticipating what the administration will do and why. There may still be plenty of things to brood aboutthe possibilities of tariff wars, betrayals of allies, mass deportations, attempts to prosecute deep-state denizens, and more. Even if Trump himself may be considerably less destructive than some fear, the MAGA movement will be out there: acolytes looking for opportunities to exit NATO, ban abortion entirely, make getting vaccines through Medicare impossible, sabotage the institutions that guarantee free and fair elections, or simply grift and corrupt their way through ambassadorships and other high government offices.

For that, something more spiritual is indicated, and I find it in the Library of America edition of one of the previous centurys deep thinkers, Reinhold Niebuhr.

God, give us grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things that should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other.

Serenity will be something we will need in the years ahead. If you ask me, a well-stocked library will be of more help getting there than tranquilizers, wide-eyed staring at ones mobile phone, or scrambling to find out if an Irish ancestor qualifies you for a European Union passport.

Politics

Welfare concessions ‘common sense’, says PM – as he defends U-turn

Published

11 mins ago

June 27, 2025

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Welfare concessions 'common sense', says PM - as he defends U-turn

Sir Keir Starmer said changes to his welfare bill “strike the right balance” after making concessions to his backbench MPs.

The prime minister described the U-turn as “common sense” and said it means “we can now get on with the job”.

Politics Live: Starmer defends U-turn

Sir Keir faced a significant rebellion over plans to cut sickness and disability benefits as part of a package he said would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, he stood by his position that the welfare system needs reform as “it doesn’t work, and it traps people”.

He added: “We need to get it right. That’s why we’ve been talking to colleagues and having a constructive discussion.

“We’ve now arrived at a package that delivers on the principles with some adjustments, and that’s the right reform, and I’m really pleased now that we’re able to take this forward.

“For me, getting that package adjusted in that way is the right thing to do, it means it’s the right balance, it’s common sense that we can now get on with it.”

The concessions include exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications.

Analysis: Welfare bill U-turn a humiliating blow for Starmer

More money will also be front-loaded into helping people find jobs, though it is not clear how much beyond the £1bn already announced.

The changes came after 127 Labour MPs signed an amendment calling for the cuts to be delayed and consulted on with disabled people.

Rebels feared the reforms wouldn’t actually help people find work while pushing thousands of disabled people and children into poverty, as per the government’s own impact assessment.

The discontent threatened to derail the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill when it comes before the Commons for a vote on Tuesday, on the week that marks a year of Starmer in government.

Asked what he would do about a “hole” in the public finances that the changes are said to leave, Sir Keir said the funding will be set out in the autumn budget “in the usual way”.

The concessions on PIP alone will protect an estimated 370,000 people currently receiving the allowance who were set to lose out following reassessment.

Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have both suggested that the changes could reduce savings intended in the original package by up to £3bn.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also under pressure to find money to pay for the U-turn on cuts to winter fuel, which followed a drubbing at the local elections in May.

Asked about the series of U-turns, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall earlier said: “Sometimes there’s strength in listening.

“I really believe that to be the case, that you end up in the right position when you talk to all of those with knowledge and experience and actually, if you want decisions to be the right ones and to last for generations to come, I believe that’s how you make the right changes.”

However, she would not guarantee the bill will pass next week.

Some 83 Labour MPs would need to rebel for the government to be defeated.

Last night Dame Meg Hillier, one of the leading rebel voices, hailed the concessions as “massive changes” to protect vulnerable people and involve disabled people in the design of future reforms.

However, not all the rebels have been satisfied with the changes, with several suggesting they would create a “two-tier system”. Sky News is aware of at least 20 MPs who currently intend to still vote against. Many others are undecided.

The concessions came after Downing Street publicly stuck to its guns while engaging in a frantic ring-around to get rebels onside, which further angered MPs.

Many have called for a reset in relations with Downing Street, as the fallout from the rebellion threatens to cause lasting damage.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch criticised the U-turn, saying the government’s failure to make “minor savings” on welfare showed they were unable to deal with major issues.

US

US Supreme Court curbs injunctions that blocked Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship plan

Published

11 mins ago

June 27, 2025

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US Supreme Court curbs injunctions that blocked Donald Trump's birthright citizenship plan

Donald Trump’s administration will be allowed to take steps to implement its proposal to end automatic birthright citizenship in the US following a decision by the Supreme Court.

Under the current rules, nearly anyone born on US territory has automatic citizenship rights – commonly known as “birthright citizenship”.

But in January, on his first day back in the White House, Trump signed an executive order aimed at ending that right.

A series of lawsuits followed, with district courts issuing nationwide injunctions aiming to block the order from taking effect.

The Supreme Court on Friday voted 6-3 to allow the Trump administration to narrow the scope of nationwide injunctions imposed by judges so that they apply only to states, groups and individuals that sued.

This means the birthright citizenship proposal can likely move forward at least in part in the states that challenged it, as well as those that did not.

The US president responded with a post on Truth Social by welcoming the ruling as a “giant win”.

At a news conference at the White House, he said: “In recent months, we’ve seen a handful of radical left judges effectively try to overrule the rightful powers of the president… to dictate the law for the entire nation… this was a colossal abuse of power.”

He went on to suggest the current birthright was being abused and had originally been designed for a different era, to give the descendants of slaves the right to citizenship.

“It wasn’t meant for people trying to scam the system and come into the country on a vacation. It was meant for the babies of slaves. Hundreds of thousands of people are pouring into our country under birthright citizenship,” he said.

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In a wide-ranging news conference, he also said he would consider bombing Iran again if they continued their nuclear programme and expects the country to open itself to international inspections.

He also said he was preparing fresh trade tariffs for several countries and had secured mineral rights in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is signing a peace deal with Rwanda at the White House to end years of fighting.

Friday’s Supreme Court decision was focused on cases filed in Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington state.

The policy remains blocked for now in one additional state, New Hampshire, as a result of a separate lawsuit that is not before the Supreme Court.

Mr Trump’s plan has the backing of 21 other states.

Friday’s ruling was decided on a 6-3 vote following a divide on ideological lines, with conservatives in the majority and liberals in dissent.

Mr Trump previously helped shape the makeup of the court with the appointment of three judges, ensuring a 6-3 conservative majority, though past rulings have still not always gone in his favour.

It has long been widely accepted, including by legal scholars on the left and right in the US, that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment confers automatic citizenship to almost anyone born in the United States.

Mr Trump wants that restricted to only those with at least one parent who is a US citizen or permanent resident.

Friday’s ruling does not examine the legal merits of the policy, but only whether judges had the authority to put it on hold across the entire country.

As a result of the ruling, the proposal can potentially move forward nationwide, although individuals could still file their own lawsuits at the state level.

Those currently challenging the policy could also still reinstate injunctions which are less broad in scope.

The US president and his allies have been harshly critical of judges who have blocked aspects of his agenda, although it is not a new phenomenon for courts to impose nationwide injunctions.

His administration has battled against judges who have issued nationwide injunctions in response to a bold and aggressive use of executive power to implement a controversial agenda, including ramping up deportations, downsizing federal agencies, targeting law firms and universities and firing thousands of federal employees.

US

Man kicks customs dog at Washington Dulles International Airport, say authorities

Published

11 mins ago

June 27, 2025

admin

Man kicks customs dog at Washington Dulles International Airport, say authorities

An Egyptian man has admitted federal charges after kicking a customs dog at a US airport, authorities say.

Hamad Ramadan Bayoumy Aly Marie, 70, pleaded guilty to “harming animals used in law enforcement” during an appearance in the US District Court of eastern Virginia on Wednesday.

Five-year-old male beagle Freddie allegedly detected more than 100lbs (45kg) of undeclared agricultural products in Marie’s luggage after he arrived at Washington Dulles International Airport from Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday.

When Freddie’s handler started questioning the passenger, he kicked the 25lb (11kg) animal so hard that it was lifted off the ground, according to US Customs and Border Protection.

A veterinarian determined that Freddie suffered contusions to his right rib area as a result of being kicked.

Marie was placed in handcuffs by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers, who found 55lbs (24.9kg) of beef meat, 44lbs (20kg) of rice, 15lbs (6.8kg) of eggplant, cucumbers and bellpeppers, 2lbs (0.9kg) of corn seeds, and 1lb (0.5kg) of herbs in his luggage, according to authorities.

All agricultural products were seized as they are prohibited, to prevent the introduction of harmful plant pests and foreign animal diseases from entering the country.

“Being caught deliberately smuggling well over 100lbs of undeclared and prohibited agricultural products does not give one permission to violently assault a defenceless Customs and Border Protection beagle,” said Christine Waugh, the CBP’s director for the area port of Washington DC.

“We rely heavily on our K9 partners and Freddie was just doing his job.

“Any malicious attack on one of us is an attack on all of us, and CBP will continue to work with our investigating and prosecuting partners to deal swift and severe justice to perpetrators.”

Marie was credited with time served after being taken into custody on Tuesday and was ordered to pay the veterinarian’s fee of $840 (£612) for Freddie’s treatment, a court filing shows.

He was also told to immediately report to CBP for removal from the US, and he left the country on a flight to Egypt at 12.30pm local time on Thursday.