How to Navigate the Era of Trump

Published

6 months ago

December 18, 2024

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Many friends of mine are pretty deep in the slough of despond. I occasionally plead with them to make their predictions of catastrophe less hopeless and categorical, but with less success than I wish. I respect their points of view but have decided to look elsewhere for advice, and so have turned to a different set of friendsthose sitting on my bookshelves.

Some of these friends have been with me for more than half a century; and they get wiser and more insightful with age. One of the first I turned to is only slightly older than I am: Motivation and Personality, by the academic psychologist Abraham Maslow. The book has a family history: Maslow summered at a lake in Maine in a cabin near one owned by my grandfather, a self-made shoe-factory owner who came to the United States with only the benefit of a grade-school education.

The story goes that Maslow was complaining about his inability to finish writing his magnum opus while surrounded by the clamor of kids and holiday-makers. After a couple of days of this, Sam Cohen turned to him, told him that writing was a job like any other, and that he had set aside an office for him in his factory, and then he ordered (rather than invited) him to go there and finish the book. Maslow did, and I have the authors inscription on the title page to prove it.

Read: A mindset for the Trump era

Maslow thought that psychology had focused excessively on the pathological; he was interested instead in what made for psychological healtha deeper and truer objective, to my mind, than the contemporary quest for happiness, which tends to be ephemeral and occasionally inappropriate to our circumstances.

Here are two relevant bits:

Since for healthy people, the unknown is not frightening, they do not have to spend any time laying the ghost, whistling past the cemetery or otherwise protecting themselves against imagined dangers. They do not neglect the unknown, or deny it, or run away from it, or try to make believe it is really known, nor do they organize, dichotomize, or rubricize it prematurely.

And then this:

They can take the frailties and sins, weaknesses, and evils of human nature in the same unquestioning spirit with which one accepts the characteristics of nature. One does not complain about water because it is wet, or about rocks because they are hard, or about trees because they are green. As the child looks out upon the world with wide, uncritical, undemanding, innocent eyes, simply noting and observing what is the case, without either arguing the matter or demanding that it be otherwise, so does the self-actualizing person tend to look upon human nature in himself and others.

This is, as Maslow says, the stoic style, and one to which a person should aspire in a world where norms are flouted, wild things are done and wilder said, and perils real and imagined loom before us. Maslows healthy individual has little inclination to spluttering outrage, which does not mean ignoring unpleasant realities. Just the reverse, in fact.

Having settled into that frame of mind, what about the matter of predicting Trump-administration policies? Another even older friend, George Orwell, speaks to that one.

Political predictions are usually wrong. But even when one makes a correct one, to discover why one was right can be very illuminating. In general, one is only right when either wish or fear coincides with reality.

This, I suspect, is going to be a particular problem in dealing with the world of Donald Trump. Neither widely shared hopes (that he will ignore Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr., for example, and be more or less normal in most respects) nor fears (that hes going to do whatever he wants, including crazier things yet) will be useful guides. But, being human, we will make judgments constantly distorted by both emotions. Orwell has a solution:

To see what is in front of ones nose needs a constant struggle. One thing that helps toward it is to keep a diary, or, at any rate, to keep some kind of record of ones opinions about important events. Otherwise, when some particularly absurd belief is exploded by events, one may simply forget that one ever held it.

Useful advice from a man who confessed that most of his own predictions during World War II were wrong, although, as I know from experience, his remedy can be a painful corrective.

On what basis, then, should one attempt to predict Trumpian policy? A downright ancient friend comes to the rescue on this one:

Begin the morning by saying to thyself, I shall meet with the busybody, the ungrateful, arrogant, deceitful, envious, unsocial.

This, from Marcus Aurelius, the last good Roman emperor and a thoughtful Stoic philosopher, is not a bad beginning in looking at an administration that will have a few barbarians in it. He continues:

Whatever man you meet, say to yourself at once: what are the principles this man entertains about human goods and ills? For if he has certain principles about pleasure and pain and the sources of these, about honour and dishonour, about death and life, it will not seem surprising or strange to me if he acts in certain ways.

So much of the contemporary speculation about the administration depends on the distinctive personality of the president-elect and some of his more outr advisers and confidantes. But simply ranting about them does not help one understand what is going on.

One of the troubles with the anti-Trump camp is the tendency simply to demonize. Some demonic characters may roam about the administration, but we would be better off trying to figure out what makes Trump tick. In particular, that phrase about honor and dishonor is worth pondering. For a man in his eighth decade with remarkable political success to his credit, who has just survived two assassination attempts, honor in Marcus Aureliuss sense is probably something beyond owning the libs. More likely, Trump is looking to record enduring accomplishments, including a peace deal in Ukraine. Figuring out what he would like those to be, and in what way, is probably the best method of figuring out how to influence him, to the extent that anyone can.

Jonathan Chait: The bizarre normalcy of Trump 2.0

Let us say that we get better at training our judgments and anticipating what the administration will do and why. There may still be plenty of things to brood aboutthe possibilities of tariff wars, betrayals of allies, mass deportations, attempts to prosecute deep-state denizens, and more. Even if Trump himself may be considerably less destructive than some fear, the MAGA movement will be out there: acolytes looking for opportunities to exit NATO, ban abortion entirely, make getting vaccines through Medicare impossible, sabotage the institutions that guarantee free and fair elections, or simply grift and corrupt their way through ambassadorships and other high government offices.

For that, something more spiritual is indicated, and I find it in the Library of America edition of one of the previous centurys deep thinkers, Reinhold Niebuhr.

God, give us grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things that should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other.

Serenity will be something we will need in the years ahead. If you ask me, a well-stocked library will be of more help getting there than tranquilizers, wide-eyed staring at ones mobile phone, or scrambling to find out if an Irish ancestor qualifies you for a European Union passport.

Business

Farming: Cost of rural crime in Wales at its highest in more than a decade

Published

6 mins ago

June 16, 2025

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Farming: Cost of rural crime in Wales at its highest in more than a decade

The cost of rural crime in Wales is at its highest in more than a decade, a new report has revealed.

Last year, rural crime cost an estimated £2.8m in Wales, according to insurance provider NFU Mutual.

That’s an 18% increase on the previous year, with Wales the only UK nation to have seen a rise.

For farmers like Caryl Davies, that makes their work harder.

The 21-year-old farms on a beef and sheep farm in Pembrokeshire.

She told Sky News that having the quad bike stolen from her family farm last August had made them feel “really unsafe at home”.

The fact it happened in such a rural area was a “really big shock” for Ms Davies and her family.

“We’d rely on the bike day in day out, to look after our cows and sheep, and it’s had a really negative impact on us,” she said.

The cost of replacing a bike exactly like theirs would be “close to £10,000”.

“They’re a really expensive piece of kit, but you can’t be without them, especially in these rural areas where we’ve got the mountain and maybe places that aren’t very accessible,” she added.

“The bike is totally crucial for our day-to-day running of the farm.”

The incident was caught on camera in the calving shed, but the Davies family have since invested in an enhanced CCTV system. That comes at an additional cost.

“For some farmers, this is spare money that we haven’t really got,” Ms Davies added.

“Farming is hard enough as it is, without people stealing your things and having to spend this extra money on making your home farm safe.”

The total cost of rural crime across the UK has fallen since 2023 – down from £52.8m to £44.1m.

Quad bike and All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) remained the top target for thieves during the past year, NFU Mutual’s figures show.

James Bourne farms in Pontypool, Torfaen, and claims to have had over 200 sheep stolen from common land adjoining his farm over a four-year period.

The 32-year-old told Sky News that losing sheep from his herd was a “big hit” on his business as well as the young family he is trying to support.

“The way agriculture is at the moment anyway, we’re struggling to make ends meet, and any profit that is in it is obviously being taken from me,” he said.

“So I really need to try and find out and get to the bottom of where they’re going because obviously it’s an ongoing issue.”

Andrew Chalk, from NFU Mutual, told Sky News that while there had been a “significant drop” across the UK, there were “worrying signs”.

“In Wales, especially, rural crime’s gone up which just shows that organised criminals are looking for ways to target the countryside again and again,” he said.

“What we’ve found increasingly is that organised criminals are targeting certain areas of the countryside, so they’re hitting multiple farms in one night.

“They’re raiding them, they’re moving away to another area and then hitting multiple farms there. So it is hugely concerning.”

Mr Chalk said NFU Mutual had also heard reports of criminals using drones and other equipment to “look at the lay of the land”.

“What it does show is that organised criminals are always going to find new ways to target rural crime and that’s why we need to be on top of it and to work together to actually disrupt them,” he added.

Police forces in Wales say they are aware of the “significant impact” that rural crimes have on those affected.

A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said the force had acquired new technology to help combat rural crime, including “advanced DNA asset-marking kits” and hopes to “empower farmers with effective tools and advice”.

The spokesperson acknowledged the difficulty of patrolling the entire police force area, “given the huge area” it has to cover, and thanked rural communities for their “continuing vigilance and for reporting any suspicious activity”.

Temporary Chief Superintendent Jason White, from Gwent Police, said the force would be “increasing resources” within the rural crime team throughout this financial year and urged anyone in a rural area who believes they have been a victim of crime to get in touch.

US

Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

Published

6 mins ago

June 16, 2025

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

A man has been taken into custody two days after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in Minnesota, law enforcement officials have said.

Authorities had urged the public not to approach Vance Boelter, 57, who they warned could be armed, and who was reportedly posing as a police officer.

A massive manhunt was launched on Saturday after Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at their home in Minneapolis in what Minnesota governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Police said the same gunman that killed the Hortmans had earlier shot and wounded Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, at their home nine miles away.

Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.

He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Hoffman and his wife.

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside the vehicle.

‘We are both incredibly lucky to be alive’

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Yvette Hoffman added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

UK

Career spy Blaise Metreweli to become first woman to head MI6

Published

6 mins ago

June 16, 2025

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Career spy Blaise Metreweli to become first woman to head MI6

Career spy Blaise Metreweli will become the first woman to head MI6 in a “historic appointment”, the prime minister has announced.

She will take over from Sir Richard Moore as the 18th Chief, also known as “C”, when he steps down in the autumn.

“The historic appointment of Blaise Metreweli comes at a time when the work of our intelligence services has never been more vital,” Sir Keir Starmer said in a statement released on Sunday night.

“The United Kingdom is facing threats on an unprecedented scale – be it aggressors who send their spy ships to our waters or hackers whose sophisticated cyber plots seek to disrupt our public services.”

Of the other main spy agencies, GCHQ is also under female command for the first time.

Anne Keast-Butler took on the role in 2023, while MI5 has previously twice been led by a woman.

Until now, a female spy chief had only headed MI6 – also known as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) – in the James Bond movies.

Dame Judi Dench held the fictional role – called “M” in the films instead of “C” – between 1995 and 2015.

Ms Metreweli currently serves as “Q”, one of four director generals inside MI6.

The position – also made famous by the James Bond films, with the fictional “Q” producing an array of spy gadgets – means she is responsible for technology and innovation.

Ms Metreweli, a Cambridge graduate, joined MI6 in 1999.

Unlike the outgoing chief, who spent some of his service as a regular diplomat in the foreign office, including as ambassador to Turkey, she has spent her entire career as an intelligence officer.

Much of that time was dedicated to operational roles in the Middle East and Europe.

Ms Metreweli, who is highly regarded by colleagues, also worked as a director at MI5.

In a statement, she said she was “proud and honoured to be asked to lead my service”.

“MI6 plays a vital role – with MI5 and GCHQ – in keeping the British people safe and promoting UK interests overseas,” she said.

“I look forward to continuing that work alongside the brave officers and agents of MI6 and our many international partners.”

Sir Richard said: “Blaise is a highly accomplished intelligence officer and leader, and one of our foremost thinkers on technology. I am excited to welcome her as the first female head of MI6.”