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Many friends of mine are pretty deep in the slough of despond. I occasionally plead with them to make their predictions of catastrophe less hopeless and categorical, but with less success than I wish. I respect their points of view but have decided to look elsewhere for advice, and so have turned to a different set of friendsthose sitting on my bookshelves.

Some of these friends have been with me for more than half a century; and they get wiser and more insightful with age. One of the first I turned to is only slightly older than I am: Motivation and Personality, by the academic psychologist Abraham Maslow. The book has a family history: Maslow summered at a lake in Maine in a cabin near one owned by my grandfather, a self-made shoe-factory owner who came to the United States with only the benefit of a grade-school education.

The story goes that Maslow was complaining about his inability to finish writing his magnum opus while surrounded by the clamor of kids and holiday-makers. After a couple of days of this, Sam Cohen turned to him, told him that writing was a job like any other, and that he had set aside an office for him in his factory, and then he ordered (rather than invited) him to go there and finish the book. Maslow did, and I have the authors inscription on the title page to prove it.

Read: A mindset for the Trump era

Maslow thought that psychology had focused excessively on the pathological; he was interested instead in what made for psychological healtha deeper and truer objective, to my mind, than the contemporary quest for happiness, which tends to be ephemeral and occasionally inappropriate to our circumstances.

Here are two relevant bits:

Since for healthy people, the unknown is not frightening, they do not have to spend any time laying the ghost, whistling past the cemetery or otherwise protecting themselves against imagined dangers. They do not neglect the unknown, or deny it, or run away from it, or try to make believe it is really known, nor do they organize, dichotomize, or rubricize it prematurely.

And then this:

They can take the frailties and sins, weaknesses, and evils of human nature in the same unquestioning spirit with which one accepts the characteristics of nature. One does not complain about water because it is wet, or about rocks because they are hard, or about trees because they are green. As the child looks out upon the world with wide, uncritical, undemanding, innocent eyes, simply noting and observing what is the case, without either arguing the matter or demanding that it be otherwise, so does the self-actualizing person tend to look upon human nature in himself and others.

This is, as Maslow says, the stoic style, and one to which a person should aspire in a world where norms are flouted, wild things are done and wilder said, and perils real and imagined loom before us. Maslows healthy individual has little inclination to spluttering outrage, which does not mean ignoring unpleasant realities. Just the reverse, in fact.

Having settled into that frame of mind, what about the matter of predicting Trump-administration policies? Another even older friend, George Orwell, speaks to that one.

Political predictions are usually wrong. But even when one makes a correct one, to discover why one was right can be very illuminating. In general, one is only right when either wish or fear coincides with reality.

This, I suspect, is going to be a particular problem in dealing with the world of Donald Trump. Neither widely shared hopes (that he will ignore Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr., for example, and be more or less normal in most respects) nor fears (that hes going to do whatever he wants, including crazier things yet) will be useful guides. But, being human, we will make judgments constantly distorted by both emotions. Orwell has a solution:

To see what is in front of ones nose needs a constant struggle. One thing that helps toward it is to keep a diary, or, at any rate, to keep some kind of record of ones opinions about important events. Otherwise, when some particularly absurd belief is exploded by events, one may simply forget that one ever held it.

Useful advice from a man who confessed that most of his own predictions during World War II were wrong, although, as I know from experience, his remedy can be a painful corrective.

On what basis, then, should one attempt to predict Trumpian policy? A downright ancient friend comes to the rescue on this one:

Begin the morning by saying to thyself, I shall meet with the busybody, the ungrateful, arrogant, deceitful, envious, unsocial.

This, from Marcus Aurelius, the last good Roman emperor and a thoughtful Stoic philosopher, is not a bad beginning in looking at an administration that will have a few barbarians in it. He continues:

Whatever man you meet, say to yourself at once: what are the principles this man entertains about human goods and ills? For if he has certain principles about pleasure and pain and the sources of these, about honour and dishonour, about death and life, it will not seem surprising or strange to me if he acts in certain ways.

So much of the contemporary speculation about the administration depends on the distinctive personality of the president-elect and some of his more outr advisers and confidantes. But simply ranting about them does not help one understand what is going on.

One of the troubles with the anti-Trump camp is the tendency simply to demonize. Some demonic characters may roam about the administration, but we would be better off trying to figure out what makes Trump tick. In particular, that phrase about honor and dishonor is worth pondering. For a man in his eighth decade with remarkable political success to his credit, who has just survived two assassination attempts, honor in Marcus Aureliuss sense is probably something beyond owning the libs. More likely, Trump is looking to record enduring accomplishments, including a peace deal in Ukraine. Figuring out what he would like those to be, and in what way, is probably the best method of figuring out how to influence him, to the extent that anyone can.

Jonathan Chait: The bizarre normalcy of Trump 2.0

Let us say that we get better at training our judgments and anticipating what the administration will do and why. There may still be plenty of things to brood aboutthe possibilities of tariff wars, betrayals of allies, mass deportations, attempts to prosecute deep-state denizens, and more. Even if Trump himself may be considerably less destructive than some fear, the MAGA movement will be out there: acolytes looking for opportunities to exit NATO, ban abortion entirely, make getting vaccines through Medicare impossible, sabotage the institutions that guarantee free and fair elections, or simply grift and corrupt their way through ambassadorships and other high government offices.

For that, something more spiritual is indicated, and I find it in the Library of America edition of one of the previous centurys deep thinkers, Reinhold Niebuhr.

God, give us grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things that should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other.

Serenity will be something we will need in the years ahead. If you ask me, a well-stocked library will be of more help getting there than tranquilizers, wide-eyed staring at ones mobile phone, or scrambling to find out if an Irish ancestor qualifies you for a European Union passport.

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Entertainment

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs trial judge dismisses juror after five weeks of evidence – over ‘concerns about his candour’

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Sean 'Diddy' Combs trial judge dismisses juror after five weeks of evidence - over 'concerns about his candour'

A juror has been dismissed from the Sean “Diddy” Combs sex-trafficking trial after hearing five weeks of evidence.

Judge Arun Subramanian said he had “concerns” about the jury member’s “candour” and made the decision after it emerged the man – Juror 6 – had given inconsistent answers about where he lives.

This could indicate he potentially had an agenda, that he wanted to be on the panel hearing the Combs trial for a purpose, the judge said, and there was nothing the juror could say that would “put the genie back in the bottle”.

Diddy trial: Day 24 – as it happened

Sean "Diddy" Combs hugs his lawyer Nicole Westmoreland as he enters the courtroom during his sex trafficking trial
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Combs hugged one of his lawyers as he arrived in the courtroom. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg

Questions over whether the juror, a black male, resided in New York or across the Hudson River in the state of New Jersey first arose at the end of last week – but defence lawyers argued dismissing him would disrupt the diversity of the jury.

However, the judge rejected this argument ahead of the start of Monday’s court session, excusing the juror and replacing him with one of the alternates, a white male.

A review of the juror’s answers to questions about his residency during jury selection, along with his subsequent responses to similar questions, revealed “clear inconsistencies”, the judge said.

“Taking these all together, the record raised serious concerns as to the juror’s candour and whether he shaded answers to get on and stay on the jury,” Judge Subramanian said.

Leaving the juror on the panel could threaten the integrity of the judicial process, he added.

“The court should not, indeed cannot, let race factor into the decision of what happens. Here, the answer is clear. Juror number six is excused,” Judge Subramanian said.

The charges against ‘Diddy’

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs is charged with one count of racketeering conspiracy, two charges of sex-trafficking, and two charges of transportation to engage in prostitution.

He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has strenuously denied all allegations of sexual abuse. The hip-hop mogul’s defence team has described him as “a complicated man” but say the case is not.

They have conceded Combs could be violent and that jurors might not condone his proclivity for “kinky sex”. However, they argue this was a consensual “swingers” lifestyle and was not illegal.

Special agent and paralegal testify

Following the juror’s dismissal, the sixth week of the trial began – with testimony from a paralegal specialist and a special agent, who both gave evidence as summary witnesses.

This means they were not involved in the criminal investigation into Combs, but were tasked with reviewing some evidence, including charts, phone records and data. In court, the aim is to provide context to the testimony heard so far and how it relates to the charges against the hip-hop mogul.

During paralegal specialist Ananya Sankar’s testimony, the court heard about texts appearing to reference “freak offs” – sexual encounters with male escorts which former girlfriends Cassie Ventura and “Jane”, two of three alleged victims to give evidence during the trial, both say Combs forced them into.

Cassie was in an on-off relationship with Combs from 2007 to 2018, while Jane – a pseudonym – dated him on and off from the beginning of 2021 to his arrest in September 2024.

Casandra "Cassie" Ventura cries on the stand during redirect during Sean "Diddy" Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New York, U.S., May 16, 2025 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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Cassie Ventura gave evidence against Combs during the first week of the trial in May. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg

Chicken soup and $4,000 cash

In messages from March 2016, Combs’s then chief of staff Kristina Khorram appeared to ask an assistant to set a hotel room up, with items requested including Gatorade, water and chicken noodle soup. “He wants you to go right away now please,” a message said.

In another text, Khorram asked workers to fetch $4,000 in cash and to ensure a male escort was given access to the hotel room, the court heard.

The court also heard about messages sent around the time of the bombshell civil lawsuit filed against Combs by Cassie in November 2023 – which was settled within 24 hours for a then undisclosed sum, revealed to be $20m during the trial.

By this time, Combs was seeing Jane. According to an audio file of a conversation, Jane told Combs after finding out about Cassie’s lawsuit: “I don’t know what I’m feeling… this is so word for word, it is crazy and it just feels sick to my stomach.”

On 28 November 2023, about two weeks later, Jane told Combs she felt he exploited her with their “dark and humiliating lifestyle”.

The following month, the court heard Jane said in a message to Khorram: “He said he would expose me and send videos to my baby daddy… I am traumatised by my time with him.”

Sean "Diddy" Combs, winner of the global icon award, poses in the press toom at the MTV Video Music Awards on Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023, at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)
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Diddy at the MTV Video Music Awards in 2023. Pic: Evan Agostini/ Invision/ AP

Jane said she would not normally involve Khorram in such matters, but told her she needed help as Combs was having one of his “evil-ass psychotic bipolar” episodes.

Jane told Khorram that she was heavily drugged in the tapes.

Although it was not clear exactly what she was referencing, a message sent to Combs by Khorram around the time of the lawsuit seemed to show some friction between the pair.

“If you cannot be honest with me this doesn’t work,” she told him, according to the messages. Combs “keeping things” to himself put them in the “situation we are all in right now”, she added.

Towards the end of the court day, videos entered into evidence under seal were played by the prosecution. This means the jury and lawyers could see and hear what was happening, but members of the public in court could not.

Read more:
Everything you need to know about the trial
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
What we learned from Cassie’s testimony

Prosecutors have said they expect to conclude their case later this week. After this, Combs’s defence team will begin theirs.

Last week, Kanye West turned up at the court in Manhattan, New York, to support the rapper, spending about 40 minutes in the building watching proceedings on a monitor in an overflow room.

Combs’s mother, Janice Combs, and several of his children have also consistently shown up throughout the hearing.

Diddy denies charges of sex-trafficking, transportation to engage in prostitution and racketeering conspiracy.

The trial continues.

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Politics

Flawed data used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’, Baroness Casey finds

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Flawed data used repeatedly to dismiss claims about 'Asian grooming gangs', Baroness Casey finds

Flawed data has been used repeatedly to dismiss claims about “Asian grooming gangs”, Baroness Louise Casey has said in a new report, as she called for a new national inquiry.

The government has accepted her recommendations to introduce compulsory collection of ethnicity and nationality data for all suspects in grooming cases, and for a review of police records to launch new criminal investigations into historical child sexual exploitation cases.

Politics latest: Yvette Cooper reveals details of grooming gangs report

Baroness Louise Casey answering question from the London Assembly police and crime committee at City Hall in east London. Pic: PA
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Baroness Louise Casey carried out the review. Pic: PA

The crossbench peer has produced an audit of sexual abuse carried out by grooming gangs in England and Wales, after she was asked by the prime minister to review new and existing data, including the ethnicity and demographics of these gangs.

In her report, she has warned authorities that children need to be seen “as children” and called for a tightening of the laws around the age of consent so that any penetrative sexual activity with a child under 16 is classified as rape. This is “to reduce uncertainty which adults can exploit to avoid or reduce the punishments that should be imposed for their crimes”, she added.

Baroness Casey said: “Despite the age of consent being 16, we have found too many examples of child sexual exploitation criminal cases being dropped or downgraded from rape to lesser charges where a 13 to 15-year-old had been ‘in love with’ or ‘had consented to’ sex with the perpetrator.”

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Grooming gangs victim speaks out

The peer has called for a nationwide probe into the exploitation of children by gangs of men.

She has not recommended another over-arching inquiry of the kind conducted by Professor Alexis Jay, and suggests the national probe should be time-limited.

The national inquiry will direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the inquiry’s “purpose is to challenge what the audit describes as continued denial, resistance and legal wrangling among local agencies”.

On the issue of ethnicity, Baroness Casey said police data was not sufficient to draw conclusions as it had been “shied away from”, and is still not recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators.

‘Flawed data’

However, having examined local data in three police force areas, she found “disproportionate numbers of men from Asian ethnic backgrounds amongst suspects for group-based child sexual exploitation, as well as in the significant number of perpetrators of Asian ethnicity identified in local reviews and high-profile child sexual exploitation prosecutions across the country, to at least warrant further examination”.

She added: “Despite reviews, reports and inquiries raising questions about men from Asian or Pakistani backgrounds grooming and sexually exploiting young white girls, the system has consistently failed to fully acknowledge this or collect accurate data so it can be examined effectively.

“Instead, flawed data is used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’ as sensationalised, biased or untrue.

“This does a disservice to victims and indeed all law-abiding people in Asian communities and plays into the hands of those who want to exploit it to sow division.”

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Read more:
Officials tried to cover up grooming scandal, says Cummings

Why many victims welcome national inquiry into grooming gangs
Grooming gangs scandal timeline

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From January: Grooming gangs: What happened?

The baroness hit out at the failure of policing data and intelligence for having multiple systems which do not communicate with each other.

She also criticised “an ambivalent attitude to adolescent girls both in society and in the culture of many organisations”, too often judging them as adults.

‘Deep-rooted failure’

Responding to Baroness Casey’s review, Ms Yvette Cooper told the House of Commons: “The findings of her audit are damning.

“At its heart, she identifies a deep-rooted failure to treat children as children. A continued failure to protect children and teenage girls from rape, from exploitation, and serious violence.

She added: “Baroness Casey found ‘blindness, ignorance, prejudice, defensiveness and even good but misdirected intentions’ all played a part in this collective failure.”

Ms Cooper said she will take immediate action on all 12 recommendations from the report, adding: “We cannot afford more wasted years repeating the same mistakes or shouting at each other across this House rather than delivering real change.”

Yvette Cooper makes a statement in the House of Commons, London, on Baroness Casey's findings on grooming gangs.
Pic: PA
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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper responded to the report. Pic: PA

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “After months of pressure, the prime minister has finally accepted our calls for a full statutory national inquiry into the grooming gangs.

“We must remember that this is not a victory for politicians, especially the ones like the home secretary, who had to be dragged to this position, or the prime minister. This is a victory for the survivors who have been calling for this for years.”

Ms Badenoch added: “The prime minister’s handling of this scandal is an extraordinary failure of leadership. His judgement has once again been found wanting.

“Since he became prime minister, he and the home secretary dismissed calls for an inquiry because they did not want to cause a stir.

“They accused those of us demanding justice for the victims of this scandal as, and I quote, ‘jumping on a far right bandwagon’, a claim the prime minister’s official spokesman restated this weekend – shameful.”

The government has promised new laws to protect children and support victims so they “stop being blamed for the crimes committed against them”.

It is also launching new police operations and a new national inquiry to direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.

There will also be new ethnicity data and research “so we face up to the facts on exploitation and abuse,” the home secretary said.

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US

Suspect in killing of US politician went to homes of other lawmakers in same night, officials say

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Suspect in killing of US politician went to homes of other lawmakers in same night, officials say

A man accused of killing a US politician and her husband went to the homes of other lawmakers that night, intending to kill them, officials said. 

Vance Boelter, 57, meticulously planned his attacks, carrying out surveillance missions, taking notes on the properties and people he targeted and disguising himself as a police officer, according to Minnesota’s acting US attorney Joseph Thompson.

Read more: Shooting suspect captured after two-day manhunt

Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer and shone a torch in the face of some of his victims to disguise his identity.

The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.
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The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.

“It is no exaggeration to say that his crimes are the stuff of nightmare,” said Mr Thompson.

Boelter, 57, allegedly shot and wounded Senator John Hoffman, a Democrat, and his wife, Yvette, in their Minneapolis home in the early hours of Saturday morning.

John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Senator John Hoffman
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John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Senator John Hoffman


He then travelled to the home of another state lawmaker but she and her family were on holiday, so they didn’t answer the door, said Mr Thompson.

More on Minneapolis

Video showed that Boelter rang the doorbell at around 2.24am on Friday but left when the family didn’t respond.

Vance Boelter.
Pic: Hennepin County Sheriff's Office/Reuters
Image:
Vance Boelter. Pic: Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office/Reuters

He then drove to the home of an unnamed state senator, but after the Hoffmans’ adult daughter called emergency services to say her parents had been shot, a police officer was dispatched to conduct a wellness check.

That officer saw Boelter’s car parked up the street but thought he was another officer, said Mr Thompson.

Boelter had reportedly altered his car to make it look more like a police car.

He then left and drove to the home of lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark Hortman, according to an FBI affidavit.

Read more:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned

Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
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Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram

Local police officers, also conducting a check, arrived to see Boelter fatally shoot Mark Hortman through the open door of the home, according to the document.

Melissa Hortman was found dead inside.

Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening after a huge manhunt in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.

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He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Mr Hoffman and his wife.

Before his arrest, the father of five texted his family group chat saying: “Dad went to war last night … I don’t wanna say more because I don’t wanna implicate anybody,” according to the affidavit.

His wife got another text that said: “Words are not gonna explain how sorry I am for this situation… there’s gonna be some people coming to the house armed and trigger-happy and I don’t want you guys around,” the document said.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside his vehicle.

A Minnesota official said politicians who had been outspoken in favour of abortion rights were on the list.

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