Is Rachel Reeves playing fast and loose with inflation?
Rachel Reeves has repeatedly told us that Labour will not play “fast and loose” with the public finances but is the government playing fast and loose with inflation?
At 2.6%, the inflation rate is nowhere near the double-digit highs we saw in 2022 but it is still above target and is likely to stay above target because of decisions made by the government.
In her October budget, the chancellor unveiled a big increase in public spending, which will boost demand in the economy, as well as a slew of tax rises on businesses that are likely to be passed on to customers.
In response, economists revised up their inflation forecasts, meaning the headline rate will stay above target for longer. Some city analysts are now predicting the index will hit 3.1% in April.
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Again, this is a world away from where we were, but it is worth bearing in mind that we are still reeling from the events of the past few years.
While the inflation rate has come down, the price level is still high – prices have not come down.
In fact, they are more than 20% higher than they were in 2021.
Wages have been rising but not by enough. On average they are lower, in real terms, than they were in 2021.
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Chancellor reacts to inflation rise
The government may be confident that inflation won’t get out of control but, if it does, we have less space to absorb price increases because we are poorer this time round.
The forecasts say inflation will fall back to target, but if the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that inflation can be temperamental and stubborn, quickly moving against us.
What about interest rates?
The headline rate has already climbed above the Bank of England‘s most recent projections.
This means that interest rates will also come down more slowly than initially thought. The Bank is likely to hold rates at 4.75% on Thursday.
Above-target inflation and wage growth mean the Bank’s monetary policy committee will likely take a cautious approach.
Considering the economy is flatlining at best and could really do with a boost, it’s a dismal trade-off.
Sir Keir Starmer says he has full confidence in Rachel Reeves after questions were raised about inaccuracies in her CV and her use of expenses in a previous job.
The chancellor has been accused by former employees of being involved in an “expenses scandal” while working at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) from 2006 to 2009, according to the BBC.
She has also been accused of saying she worked for the Bank of England for longer than she did.
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The prime minister said the chancellor can be trusted and has no concerns about her conduct, Number 10 said.
Ms Reeves’ spokesperson said she was “not aware of an investigation, nor was she interviewed”. Her lawyer has denied the allegations.
One ex-colleague said she nearly got sacked after an investigation into three senior managers accused of “signing off each other’s expenses”.
This included spending hundreds of pounds on handbags, perfume, earrings and wine for colleagues, including one gift for her boss.
A whistleblower said there was also concern about her spending on taxis and on a Christmas party.
In a Facebook group of former HBOS employees seen by the BBC, several people referred to Ms Reeves being investigated over her expenses spending.
Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir’s official spokesman said it was “correct” the prime minister has “no concerns whatsoever” about the chancellor’s conduct and has confidence in her.
He also said: “I can’t speak to her time prior to government.
“The PM works hand in hand and has full faith in the chancellor.”
Sir Keir later said she has “dealt with any issues that arise” from questions about her career before becoming an MP.
Reeves lawyers deny wrongdoing
A spokesperson for Ms Reeves said: “Rachel is proud of the work she did at HBOS and the teams that she led, it is 16 years since she left the bank and the first time she was made aware of these claims was when approached by journalists.
“She was not aware of an investigation nor was she interviewed, and she did not face any disciplinary action on this or any other matters. All expenses were submitted and signed off in the proper way.
“Several former colleagues from her time at the bank, including HBOS’ former HR business partner, have corroborated this account.
“Rachel left HBOS in 2009 on good terms.”
Ms Reeves’s lawyer while she was leaving HBOS denied she had done anything wrong, saying she left HBOS with a “standard-style agreement” after a “mutually agreed exit was made during the bank’s restructure”.
David Sorensen, a managing partner at Morrish Solicitors, added: “My clear understanding at the time was that my client, who was in a senior role, left on good terms when HBOS plc was acquired in 2009, as evidenced by the payments made to her, the retention of her company car and other benefits for a six-month period, and a favourable reference.
“Absolutely no allegations of wrongdoing or misconduct were mentioned by the HBOS HR team during this process.”
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LinkedIn dates questioned
Questions have also been raised about Ms Reeves’ online CV, as her LinkedIn profile said she stayed at the Bank of England nine months longer than she actually did, the BBC has reported.
She has publicly said she spent a decade there, but her LinkedIn profile claimed she worked at the bank from September 2000 to December 2006.
However, she is understood to have left by March 2006, when she started working at HBOS.
That means she spent five and a half years at the bank, including nearly a year studying.
Ms Reeves’ spokesman, in a comment given to the BBC, said the dates on her LinkedIn were inaccurate and blamed an administrative error by her team.
They said the chancellor had not seen it before it was published.
The chancellor’s LinkedIn profile has now been updated to reflect she left the bank in March 2006.
Ms Reeves has repeatedly said she spent 10 years at the Bank of England, citing her time as an economist there as why she can be trusted with the UK’s finances.
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