Spending calculator: Which prices are rising and falling fastest?
Inflation has risen for the second month in a row to 2.6% in November.
Today’s percentage is above the Bank of England’s 2% target and marks an increase from October, when inflation climbed to 2.3% after three months of decline.
This is due to the higher cost of clothing, petrol and diesel, compared to last year, the ONS said.
But how does all of this affect the cost of groceries, clothing and leisure activities? Use our calculator to find out.
Which prices are increasing fastest?
Olive oil was the item with the largest price increase, with prices for 500ml to one litre rising from £7.22 to £9.21, an increase of 28%.
Olive oil has consistently had high price increases and experts have put that price rise down primarily to poor olive yields due to last year’s heatwaves in southern Europe.
However, they expect a significantly better harvest in the 2024-25 season, thanks to significant rainfall in Spain. The harvest could be double the size of last year’s, which may lead to lower prices in the coming months.
With Christmas fast approaching, many festive staples are seeing price increases, with carrots and potatoes up by nearly a fifth. On the drinks front, a 70cl bottle of cream liqueur has risen by 4%, but there’s good news for Champagne lovers with a bottle now costing 0.5% less.
Food and drink products are responsible for seven of the 10 biggest increases since last year.
Of non-food items, hair gel increased the most, by a fifth from £3.33 to £4.11.
Top five price rises:
• Olive oil (500ml-1litre): up 28%, £7.22 to £9.21
• Iceberg lettuce (each): up 24%, 80p to 99p
• Hair gel (150-200ml): up 23%, £3.33 to £4.11
• Hand rolling tobacco pack (30g): up 22%, £20.46 to £24.97
• Plums (per kg): up 20%, £2.91 to £3.48
Overall, 50 of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year.
Crumpet lovers have reason to celebrate-prices for a pack of 6-9 crumpets have dropped by 8%, along with some dairy-free spread to top them with.
Overall, 142 out of the 444 products in our database are cheaper than they were 12 months ago.
Top food price decreases:
• Pulses (390-420g): down 12%, 76p to 67p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 9%, £18.87 to £17.20
• Canned tomatoes (390-400g): down 8%, 72p to 66p
• Dairy free spread/margarine (450-500g): down 8%, £2.17 to £1.99
• Crumpets (pack of 6-9): down 8%, £1.00 to 92p
Of non-supermarket items, kerosene has been the biggest price faller – by a more than a fifth.
What is the effect of long-term inflation?
The price changes described above compare the cost of items to where they were a year ago.
However, inflation has now been at high levels for an extended period of time.
The war in Ukraine, COVID, Brexit, and other supply chain pressures have all contributed to spiralling costs in recent years.
Inflation reached a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
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While the headline inflation figure has come down markedly, any amount of inflation means that prices are still rising, and building on already inflated costs.
We’ve compared the costs of shopping items with what they were three years ago to see what the cumulative impact of inflation has been.
The biggest price rise for groceries over that time has been for olive oil (500ml to one litre), which has increased nearly two-and-a-half times (146%), from £3.74 to £9.21 in the past three years.
Iceberg lettuce is up by four-fifths, with one costing 99p now compared with 54p in October 2021.
Use our calculator to see how much prices in your shopping basket have risen in total since three years ago.
Who is worst affected?
Richard Lim, chief executive of Retail Economics, says: “It’s the least affluent households that are going to see much higher rates of inflation as they spend more of their income on food and energy.”
We’ll continue to update our spending calculator over the coming months so you can see how you’ll be affected.
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Methodology
The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.
The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.
Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.
Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.
We will be updating these figures each month while the cost of living crisis continues.
During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.
Data journalists: Daniel Dunford, Amy Borrett, Ben van der Merwe, Joely Santa Cruz and Saywah Mahmood
Interactive: Ganesh Rao
Design: Phoebe Rowe, Brian Gillingham
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump has attempted to negotiate a potential TikTok sale on live television, in what was supposed to be an announcement about investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
The US president was holding a news conference about a $500bn (£405bn) investment in AI infrastructure in the country, but was questioned about a range of topics.
At one point he attempted to negotiate the sale of TikTok with Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who is said to be worth more than $204bn (£165bn).
President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
Mr Trump also had to defend some of his actions just one day into his second term.
When the topic of TikTok was raised, Mr Trump said he was “open” to his close friend Elon Musk buying the app, adding: “I would be, if he wanted to buy it. I’d like Larry [Ellison] to buy it too.”
He continued: “I have the right to make a deal, the deal I’m thinking about, Larry let’s negotiate in front of the media.
“The deal I think is this. I’ve met with the owners of TikTok, the big owners, it’s worthless if it doesn’t get a permit… with a permit it’s worth like a trillion dollars.
“What I’m thinking of saying to someone is buy it and give half to the US, half, and we’ll give you a permit… the US will be the ultimate partner and the US will make it very worthwhile for them.”
“Sounds like a good deal to me Mr President,” Oracle co-founder Mr Ellison said, when asked by the president about the offer.
During the press conference, Mr Trump also said he received a “very nice letter” from the outgoing Joe Biden.
“It was a little bit of an inspirational type letter, joy, do a good job, important, very important the job is, I think it was a nice letter, I think I should let people see it… I appreciated the letter,” he said.
Capitol riot pardons
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Trump addresses Capitol riot pardons
As part of a blitz of executive orders Mr Trump signed on Monday, he issued pardons for more than 1,500 people involved in the Capitol riot – including the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders.
When asked how he justified pardoning convicted violent rioters, some of whom attacked police, he said: “I am the friend of police more than any president that has been in this office.
“They’ve been given a pardon, I thought their sentences were ridiculous and excessive.”
When further questioned over the words of his vice president JD Vance, who said no violent rioters would be pardoned, Mr Trump claimed they had “served years in jail and murderers don’t even go to jail in this country”.
Tariff countdown
Across the campaign trail, Mr Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of using tariffs against other countries.
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But for the first time, he gave a date for potentially bringing them in.
He vowed to hit the European Union (EU) with tariffs and said his administration was discussing imposing an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China from 1 February because, he claimed, fentanyl was being sent from China to Mexico and Canada, then on to the US.
Read more:
Will Trump be crypto’s most powerful supporter?
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OpenAI’s Sam Altman speaks alongside Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
“The European Union is very, very bad to us, so they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way… you’re going to get fairness,” he said.
The Treasury borrowed more than expected last month to record the highest December sum for four years, official figures have shown, with higher debt interest payments adding to the bill.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a net borrowing figure for December of £17.8bn when a sum just above £14bn had been expected by economists.
It left public sector net borrowing £10.1bn up on the same month last year and £8.9bn higher than at the same point in the last financial year but still within the range expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Borrowing is on the up amid a budget-led drive for public sector investment, but the ONS data showed an £8.3bn debt interest bill – the third-highest December total on record.
Money latest: UK mortgage rules could be about to change
The report said that higher bill was mainly explained by shifts in the rate of inflation linked to the borrowing.
A £1.7bn payment for the repurchase of military dwellings added to the total December figure.
The data was revealed as Chancellor Rachel Reeves attends the World Economic Forum in Davos for a series of meetings with global business leaders in a bid to showcase the UK.
There is a chill, however, around the UK’s immediate economic prospects with investors recently piling pressure on her stewardship of the public finances by demanding higher risk premiums to hold UK government debt in the form of bonds, known as gilts.
Read more:
UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century
Reeves to meet US financiers in Davos
Wage growth and jobless rate rising
Long-term borrowing costs hit highs not seen since 1998 earlier this month, with the 30-year UK gilt yield still above 5%.
It ticked up by eight basis points in the wake of the ONS report being released.
The first six months in charge of the public finances have proved a baptism of fire for the chancellor, who promised during the election campaign to make economic growth her top priority.
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‘We need to grow our economy’
But she and the prime minister have been subsequently accused of shattering confidence through warnings of a “tough” budget ahead due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.
It was measured at £22bn and her fiscal statement on 30 October put business mainly on the hook for £40bn of tax increases announced.
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How the UK ranks as an investment destination
The economy is estimated to have largely flatlined during the second half of last year, with major employers warning that investment, jobs and pay growth ahead are under threat to help offset the impact of the additional costs due from April when tax hikes, including from employer national insurance contributions, take effect.
They have also stated that higher prices for consumers will also form part of the mix.
Employment figures released on Tuesday suggested that firms were already taking action.
Data from HM Revenue & Customs showed the number of payrolled employees was estimated to have fallen by 47,000 during the 12 months to December – the biggest drop since November 2020.
Economists see economic growth being supported this year by public sector investment announced in the budget.
The big question mark is over the contribution from the private sector.
Jessica Barnaby, deputy director for public sector finances at the ONS, said: “At almost £18bn, borrowing last month was the third highest in any December on record.
“Compared with December 2023, spending on public services, benefits, debt interest and capital transfers were all up, while an increase in tax receipts was partially offset by a reduction in national insurance contributions, following the rate cuts earlier in 2024.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said of the data: “Economic stability is vital for our number one mission of delivering growth, that’s why our fiscal rules are non-negotiable and why we will have an iron grip on the public finances.
“Through our spending review we will interrogate every line of government spending for the first time in 17 years. We’ll root out waste to ensure every penny of taxpayer’s money is spent productively and helps deliver our Plan for Change.”
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