US rate cut will not be matched by Bank of England
The US central bank has announced an interest rate cut, just hours before the Bank of England is tipped to refrain from following suit.
The Federal Reserve cut its main funding rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 4.25%-4.5%, as markets had expected, but signalled that future reductions would happen more slowly.
A resurgence in the pace of inflation is a big worry, with the prospect of new trade tariffs under Donald Trump from 20 January also risking a leap in the pace of US price growth in the New Year as imported goods would cost more.
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Data on Tuesday showed resilient consumer spending among other reasons for Fed policymakers to be wary of inflation ahead.
The Federal Open Markets Committee expected two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations had been for four just weeks ago, in line with the Fed’s September guidance.
Fed chair Jay Powell told reporters solid growth, improved employment and progress in the battle against inflation meant the central bank was in a “good place”.
But he acknowledged that “policy uncertainty” relating to the incoming Trump administration was a concern for the inflation outlook among some of the committee’s membership.
Fed chair Jay Powell is seen taking reporters’ questions File pic: Federal Reserve
“We just don’t know very much at all about the actual policies, so it’s very premature to try and make any conclusion”, he added.
Government bond yields, which reflect perceived future interest rate paths, ticked upwards.
The dollar found support, gaining 0.5% against both the pound and euro, while major US stock markets retreated.
The Fed’s rate decision was announced just hours before the Bank of England gives its own rate verdict.
No cut is expected while financial markets are expecting a similar message on the possible interest rate path ahead.
UK yields – the effective cost of servicing government debt – have moved sharply higher this month, with the gap between British and German 10-year bond yields rising to its highest level in 34 years earlier on Wednesday.
It reflects the diverging interest rate outlooks for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, which has been cutting rates consistently to boost the euro area’s economy.
The UK’s problem is that the paces for both wage and price growth have accelerated.
At the same time, economic growth has stalled.
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Businesses react to shrinking economy
The scenario presents the Bank with a particular challenge.
Its governor Andrew Bailey has admitted that the budget’s effect on businesses is casting the biggest question mark over the future rate path.
Worries include the extent to which firms seek to recover costs from tax hikes and minimum pay rises in the form of price rises.
On the other hand, the pressure on wage growth could be eased if firms carry out their threat to limit pay growth as a result of the budget burden.
As it stands, UK borrowing costs look set to be higher for longer, hampering the economy as they are designed to do but also driving up the government’s bill to service its debts.
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Chancellor reacts to inflation rise
While the Bank is widely expected to hold off on a cut on Thursday, financial market forecasts for a reduction in February, seen as nailed on just weeks ago, are now running at just 50% in the wake of the latest wage and inflation data.
Just two rate cuts are priced in for 2025 currently.
What the Bank has to say about the price pressures it is currently seeing will be closely scrutinised.
Commenting on the US outlook Matthew Morgan, head of fixed income at Jupiter Asset Management, said: “As it stands, the market expects only two further cuts in the whole of 2025. This is perhaps not surprising given consumer spending, policy uncertainty (particularly around tariffs) and jobs looking in decent health.
“However, we think we are likely to see [US] rate cut expectations increase next year as growth softens. The labour market is clearly cooling, inflation is softening, and Europe and China are a drag on global growth.
“Given the high inflation of the Biden presidency was very unpopular with the public, we think Trump will be wary of overdoing inflationary policies, like tariffs. Together with potential government spending cuts in the US, next year could well see positive conditions for the performance of government bonds.”
Donald Trump has attempted to negotiate a potential TikTok sale on live television, in what was supposed to be an announcement about investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
The US president was holding a news conference about a $500bn (£405bn) investment in AI infrastructure in the country, but was questioned about a range of topics.
At one point he attempted to negotiate the sale of TikTok with Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who is said to be worth more than $204bn (£165bn).
President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
Mr Trump also had to defend some of his actions just one day into his second term.
When the topic of TikTok was raised, Mr Trump said he was “open” to his close friend Elon Musk buying the app, adding: “I would be, if he wanted to buy it. I’d like Larry [Ellison] to buy it too.”
He continued: “I have the right to make a deal, the deal I’m thinking about, Larry let’s negotiate in front of the media.
“The deal I think is this. I’ve met with the owners of TikTok, the big owners, it’s worthless if it doesn’t get a permit… with a permit it’s worth like a trillion dollars.
“What I’m thinking of saying to someone is buy it and give half to the US, half, and we’ll give you a permit… the US will be the ultimate partner and the US will make it very worthwhile for them.”
“Sounds like a good deal to me Mr President,” Oracle co-founder Mr Ellison said, when asked by the president about the offer.
During the press conference, Mr Trump also said he received a “very nice letter” from the outgoing Joe Biden.
“It was a little bit of an inspirational type letter, joy, do a good job, important, very important the job is, I think it was a nice letter, I think I should let people see it… I appreciated the letter,” he said.
Capitol riot pardons
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Trump addresses Capitol riot pardons
As part of a blitz of executive orders Mr Trump signed on Monday, he issued pardons for more than 1,500 people involved in the Capitol riot – including the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders.
When asked how he justified pardoning convicted violent rioters, some of whom attacked police, he said: “I am the friend of police more than any president that has been in this office.
“They’ve been given a pardon, I thought their sentences were ridiculous and excessive.”
When further questioned over the words of his vice president JD Vance, who said no violent rioters would be pardoned, Mr Trump claimed they had “served years in jail and murderers don’t even go to jail in this country”.
Tariff countdown
Across the campaign trail, Mr Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of using tariffs against other countries.
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But for the first time, he gave a date for potentially bringing them in.
He vowed to hit the European Union (EU) with tariffs and said his administration was discussing imposing an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China from 1 February because, he claimed, fentanyl was being sent from China to Mexico and Canada, then on to the US.
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OpenAI’s Sam Altman speaks alongside Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
“The European Union is very, very bad to us, so they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way… you’re going to get fairness,” he said.
The Treasury borrowed more than expected last month to record the highest December sum for four years, official figures have shown, with higher debt interest payments adding to the bill.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a net borrowing figure for December of £17.8bn when a sum just above £14bn had been expected by economists.
It left public sector net borrowing £10.1bn up on the same month last year and £8.9bn higher than at the same point in the last financial year but still within the range expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Borrowing is on the up amid a budget-led drive for public sector investment, but the ONS data showed an £8.3bn debt interest bill – the third-highest December total on record.
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The report said that higher bill was mainly explained by shifts in the rate of inflation linked to the borrowing.
A £1.7bn payment for the repurchase of military dwellings added to the total December figure.
The data was revealed as Chancellor Rachel Reeves attends the World Economic Forum in Davos for a series of meetings with global business leaders in a bid to showcase the UK.
There is a chill, however, around the UK’s immediate economic prospects with investors recently piling pressure on her stewardship of the public finances by demanding higher risk premiums to hold UK government debt in the form of bonds, known as gilts.
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Wage growth and jobless rate rising
Long-term borrowing costs hit highs not seen since 1998 earlier this month, with the 30-year UK gilt yield still above 5%.
It ticked up by eight basis points in the wake of the ONS report being released.
The first six months in charge of the public finances have proved a baptism of fire for the chancellor, who promised during the election campaign to make economic growth her top priority.
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‘We need to grow our economy’
But she and the prime minister have been subsequently accused of shattering confidence through warnings of a “tough” budget ahead due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.
It was measured at £22bn and her fiscal statement on 30 October put business mainly on the hook for £40bn of tax increases announced.
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How the UK ranks as an investment destination
The economy is estimated to have largely flatlined during the second half of last year, with major employers warning that investment, jobs and pay growth ahead are under threat to help offset the impact of the additional costs due from April when tax hikes, including from employer national insurance contributions, take effect.
They have also stated that higher prices for consumers will also form part of the mix.
Employment figures released on Tuesday suggested that firms were already taking action.
Data from HM Revenue & Customs showed the number of payrolled employees was estimated to have fallen by 47,000 during the 12 months to December – the biggest drop since November 2020.
Economists see economic growth being supported this year by public sector investment announced in the budget.
The big question mark is over the contribution from the private sector.
Jessica Barnaby, deputy director for public sector finances at the ONS, said: “At almost £18bn, borrowing last month was the third highest in any December on record.
“Compared with December 2023, spending on public services, benefits, debt interest and capital transfers were all up, while an increase in tax receipts was partially offset by a reduction in national insurance contributions, following the rate cuts earlier in 2024.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said of the data: “Economic stability is vital for our number one mission of delivering growth, that’s why our fiscal rules are non-negotiable and why we will have an iron grip on the public finances.
“Through our spending review we will interrogate every line of government spending for the first time in 17 years. We’ll root out waste to ensure every penny of taxpayer’s money is spent productively and helps deliver our Plan for Change.”
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