U.S. President-elect Donald Trump smiles at the crowd during the National Guard Association of the United States’ 146th General Conference & Exhibition at Huntington Place Convention Center on Aug. 26, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan.
Emily Elconin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The fate of President Joe Biden’s landmark climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, is in the hands of the incoming Republican-controlled White House, Senate and House of Representatives.
At the White House level, President-elect Donald Trump has already nominated three people to posts in his administration who are likely to be key to the future of the IRA, if they are confirmed by the Senate: hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, oilfield services company Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy, and at the Interior Department, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Any full repeal of the IRA would have to be passed by both chambers of Congress, where Republican lawmakers so far have been reluctant to completely discredit the law’s benefits. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told CNBC in September that he would use “a scalpel and not a sledgehammer” on the IRA.
There’s a good reason for this approach: As of late October, roughly three quarters of the clean energy investments that have been made with IRA funds benefitted congressional districts that backed Trump in the 2020 presidential election, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the clean energy think tank Rhodium Group.
President Joe Biden signs The Inflation Reduction Act with (left to right) Sen. Joe Manchin, D-WV; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY; House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-SC; Rep. Frank Pallone, D-NJ; and Rep. Kathy Catsor, D-FL, at the White House on Aug. 16, 2022.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
But what future Trump Cabinet members would do is also “pretty profoundly important” to the future of the massive legislation, said Tanuj Deora, a former director for clean energy at the Biden administration’s Office of the Federal Chief Sustainability Officer. The agencies hold considerable power over the interpretation and implementation of the IRA’s programs and incentives, like tax credits and business loans.
Renewable energy tax credits are likely safe
A priority for Republicans going into 2025 is extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Trump is looking to extend the tax cuts within his first 100 days in office next year.
This extension would cost $4.6 trillion over the 10-year budget window, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
“In addition, Trump promised another seven to eight trillion in tax breaks during the last few weeks of the [presidential] campaign,” said Keith Martin, co-head of projects at the law and lobbying firm Norton Rose Fulbright.
The money for all this has to come from somewhere, however, and experts say provisions of the IRA are the most likely candidates for potential cost-savings. In an interview with the Financial Times last October, Bessent called the IRA “the Doomsday machine for the deficit,” suggesting that Trump could dismantle it to cut spending.
Among them, the renewable energy tax credits, especially those for carbon capture technologies, domestic manufacturing and the green economy job transition are well-liked by Republicans, Martin said, and likely to be safe from any potential repeal efforts.
But the current phase-out dates for the IRA tax credits are likely to be accelerated, experts predict, and the Trump transition team is already in talks to completely dismantle a $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles.
Scott Bessent, who U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated to lead the U.S. Treasury Department, walks towards the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), on the day U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will ring the opening bell at NYSE to celebrate being named Time magazine’s ‘Person of the Year’, in New York City, New York, U.S., December 12, 2024.
Adam Gray | Reuters
Most of the final rules governing implementation of the IRA tax credits have either been finalized or are expected to be by the end of the year.
But there is still considerable fear that the remaining money could be rescinded, frozen or “awarded in ways that are aligned with a shift in priorities” in a new administration, said Julie McNamara, deputy policy director of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“Theoretically, a future Treasury could reverse course on interpretation and implementation, but that would take a long time and would need to be justifiable and defensible if challenged in the courts,” she added.
Business loan programs are in trouble
The more immediate concern, experts say, is the future of the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO), which provides financing for green projects. While Wright has yet to voice an opinion on the LPO, several Republicans have called for scaling it back or doing away with it altogether.
As of November, private companies were seeking more than $300 billion in funding applications from the LPO. Beneficiaries of the loan program have included Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is co-heading Trump’s outside advisory council, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
The Inflation Reduction Act expanded the LPO’s lending authority and eligibility requirements for projects.
“I think that a lot of the private sector is very concerned about the loan program,” said Claire Broido-Johnson, co-founder and president of Sunrock Distributed Generation, a financier and developer of commercial-scale solar projects. “Everybody’s trying to slam as many projects as they possibly can into this process before the administration changes.”
Liberty Oilfield Services CEO Chris Wright at Liberty January 17, 2018.
Andy Cross | Denver Post | Getty Images
An ‘all-of-the-above’ energy strategy
With the boom in AI data centers, domestic manufacturing and electrification, the U.S. is facing “a significant challenge in meeting a growing demand for energy,” said Frank Macchiarola, chief policy officer of the American Clean Power Association, which represents renewable energy interests in Washington.
This demand can only be met by an “all-of-the-above” energy policy, Martin says, especially if Trump is planning to reduce energy prices by 50% within his first year, as he promised.
Trump’s potential Cabinet officials in the energy space are consistent with that message, according to both Macchiarola and Deora.
“Burgum has a pretty clear track record in being supportive of all kinds of energy investment and given the very real need for more energy infrastructure of all types, it seems hard to imagine that somebody of his background and his business competence and his governance competence would try to suppress any reasonable technology from being deployed as quickly as possible,” Deora said.
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump greets Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum at a rally, in advance of the New Hampshire primary election in Laconia, New Hampshire, U.S. January 22, 2024.
Mike Segar | Reuters
North Dakota is one of the leading states in wind energy, utilizing the source for more than one-third of the state’s electricity.
As for Wright, although he has denied the existence of a climate crisis, he worked in the solar industry as well as oil and gas, according to Trump’s statement announcing his nomination.
“He’s not necessarily against any technology, he’s just going to be for certain technologies,” Deora said.
Ultimately, an all-of-the-above approach to energy would effectively defeat the purpose of climate policy, even though it might sound reassuring to sectors that would be negatively impacted by a targeted attack on renewables.
“Climate change isn’t about how many solar panels we put up. Climate change is how much carbon dioxide and methane that we do not admit,” said Deora.
“The concern isn’t about whether we keep business and keep solar developers happy. This is really about, are we going to produce more fossil fuels?”
More than $14 billion in US renewable and EV investments and 10,000 new jobs have been scrapped or put on hold since January, according to a new analysis from E2 and the Clean Economy Tracker. The reason: growing fears that the Republican-majority Congress will pull the plug on federal clean energy tax credits.
In April alone, companies backed out of $4.5 billion in battery, EV, and wind projects right before the House passed a sweeping tax and spending bill that would gut the federal tax incentives fueling the clean energy boom. E2 also found another $1.5 billion in previously unreported project cancellations from earlier in the year.
Now, with the Senate preparing to take up the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” E2 says over 10,000 clean energy jobs have already vanished.
“If the tax plan passed by the House last week becomes law, expect to see construction and investments stopping in states across the country as more projects and jobs are cancelled,” said Michael Timberlake, E2’s communications director. “Businesses are now counting on Congress to come to its senses and stop this costly attack on an industry that is essential to meeting America’s growing energy demand and that’s driving unprecedented economic growth in every part of the country.”
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Ironically, it’s Republican-led congressional districts – the biggest beneficiaries of the Biden administration’s clean energy tax credits passed in 2022 – that are feeling the most pain. So far, more than $12 billion in investments and over 13,000 jobs have been canceled in GOP districts.
Through April, 61% of all clean energy projects, 72% of jobs, and 82% of investments have been in Republican districts.
Despite the rising number of cancellations, some companies are still forging ahead. In April, businesses announced nearly $500 million in new clean energy investments across six states. That includes a $400 million expansion by Corning in Michigan to make solar wafers, which is expected to create at least 400 jobs, and a $9.3 million investment from a Canadian solar equipment company in North Carolina.
If completed, the seven projects announced last month could create nearly 3,000 permanent jobs.
To date, E2 has tracked 390 major clean energy projects across 42 states and Puerto Rico since the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022. In total, companies plan to invest $132 billion and hire 123,000 permanent workers.
But the report warns that momentum could grind to a halt if the House tax plan becomes law. Since the clean energy tax credits were signed into law, 45 announced projects have been canceled, downsized, or closed entirely, wiping out nearly 20,000 jobs and $16.7 billion in investments.
What’s more, Trump’s Department of Energy announced today that it was killing more than $3.7 billion in funding for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and decarbonization initiatives. Eighteen out of 24 projects were awarded through DOE’s Industrial Demonstrations Program (IDP), which was made law in the Inflation Reduction Act. It aimed to strengthen the economic competitiveness of US manufacturers in global markets demanding lower carbon emissions, while supporting US manufacturing jobs and communities.
Executive Director Jason Walsh of the BlueGreen Alliance said in a statement in response to today’s DOE announcement:
The awarded projects that DOE is seeking to kill are concentrated in rural areas and red states. American manufacturers are hungry to partner with the federal government to bolster US industry. The IDP saw $60 billion worth of applications during the program selection process, a ten-times oversubscription.
President Trump claims to be a champion of American manufacturing, but today’s announcement is further evidence that he and his Secretary of Energy are liars.
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A Tesla prototype was spotted at the Fremont factory in California, sparking speculation that it’s the new “cheaper Tesla”, but it looks like a regular Model Y.
A drone operator flew over the Fremont factory this week and spotted a Tesla prototype with light camouflage on the front and back ends.
The vehicle is making a lot of people talk on social media and the media as many think it could be a new “affordable model” coming to Tesla.
Other than the camouflage, the vehicle looks just like a regular Model Y:
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It’s likely one of two things: a new “stripped-down Model Y” or a Model Y Performance.
Model Y Performance is the only version that Tesla hasn’t launched since the design changeover earlier this year.
The “stripped-down Model Y” is what will replace Tesla’s upcoming “affordable models.”
We have been reporting on this new vehicle program from Tesla for a while now.
It came to life just over a year ago as a pivot for Tesla after CEO Elon Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla”. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.
Instead, Musk saw that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as Tesla faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicles program based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.
We previously reported that these electric vehicles will likely look very similar to Model 3 and Model Y.
In recent months, several other media reports reinforced that, and Tesla all but confirmed it during its latest earnings call.
Considering this looks like a regular Model Y, it could be the new cheaper and less feature rich Model Y:
Some people are claiming that this vehicle looks smaller than the Model Y, but it’s difficult to tell as the black camouflage on the ends can confuse the eye.
It looks like a very similar size when it passes near other Tesla vehicles:
What do you think it is? Let us know in the comment section below.
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San Francisco-based founder Ahmed Shubber wants to emulate Elon Musk’s success in the electric construction equipment world – and he hopes his new, 32-ton electric bulldozer is enough to make the world sit up and take notice.
Since launching his company, Lumina, in 2021, Shubber has raised more than $8 million and grown the company’s global (!?) headcount to 26 people. That fruit of that team’s labor is the machine seen here. Dubbed “Moonlander,” the first-of-its-kind prototype occupies the physical footprint of something like a Caterpillar D6, but packs the blade and performance of the larger, more powerful Cat D9.
“A D6 could not push that blade,” David Wright, Lumina’s head of UK operations, told the assembled media at the Moonlander’s launch last week. “We can have that blade full of material, full dozing seven to nine cubic meters of material, for eight to 10 hours.”
“Even if you spend all morning heavy dozing and you’re a bit worried about how much juice you’ve used — well, your operators are going to take a union-mandated lunch break, right?” asks Wright. “Plug it in, and in 30 minutes, you’ve put 50% of power back in again.”
Shubber says Lumina is working to raise from $20-40 million for its Series A round to develop the company’s next electric equipment asset: a 100-ton electric excavator called Blade Runner. And, in a truly Tesla-like fashion, Shubber says he’s on track to hit an ambitious $100 million revenue target sometime in the next 24 months.
We’ll see how that unfolds in 2 year’s time, I guess. In the meantime, check out this Lumina promo video for Moonlander, below, then let us know what you think of Shuber’s take on an electric job site in the comments.
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