College Football Playoff predictions: Our reporters pick every game in every round
Championship weekend delivered a blockbuster befitting of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
In Atlanta, it took overtime, but Georgia, even after two regular-season losses, claimed the SEC by beating Texas and stealing an all-important first-round bye from the Longhorns, who will still host a quarterfinal against 12-seed Clemson.
Top-ranked Oregon and Penn State engaged in an offensive shootout in Indianapolis. But despite a late effort from the Nittany Lions, the Ducks proved once again why they are both still undefeated and ranked atop the college football world. Dan Lanning’s 13-0 team doesn’t just get a first-round bye — they’ll be playing in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.
In the land of underdogs and surprises, Arizona State and Boise State made loud statements in their respective Big 12 and Mountain West championship games, earning improbable — but well-deserved — first-round byes. Who would have seen that coming four months ago? Not the Big 12 media, which predicted the Sun Devils to finish last in the conference.
And finally, in Charlotte, Dabo Swinney and Clemson (with an assist from Syracuse last week) resurrected their once-lost season and found themselves with another conference championship and a spot in the playoff by beating SMU on a last-second field goal. The Mustangs had to sweat it out overnight, but in the end, they — not Alabama, not Ole Miss, not South Carolina and not Miami — found themselves in the playoff field as well. Their reward? A trip to Happy Valley to face No. 6 Penn State.
After months of rankings, seedings and countless debates, we have a 12-team bracket that brings about plenty of enticing questions and intriguing possibilities.
Can Oregon run the table and go 16-0 and finally get the coveted national championship the program craves? Will Georgia once again show itself to be the sport’s flagship program a year after missing out on the playoff? How far will the Cinderella runs of Boise State and Arizona State go? Is a sleeping giant such as Notre Dame, Ohio State or Tennessee better positioned for a run after not having to play in a conference championship? Or will the new format bring about more chaos and produce a double-digit-seed semifinalist, maybe even a familiar winner like Clemson?
Here are our full picks for the inaugural, 12-team College Football Playoff.
Andrea Adelson
First round
Texas 28, Clemson 14
Ohio State 27, Tennessee 24
Penn State 24, SMU 23
Notre Dame 38, Indiana 17
Quarterfinals
Texas 33, Arizona State 30
Oregon 35, Ohio State 31
Penn State 38, Boise State 35
Notre Dame 23, Georgia 20
Semifinals
Texas 31, Oregon 30
Notre Dame 27, Penn State 24
National title game
Texas 31, Notre Dame 27
Kyle Bonagura
First round
Texas 31, Clemson 21
Ohio State 28, Tennessee 24
Penn State 31, SMU 17
Indiana 31, Notre Dame 24
Quarterfinals
Oregon 35, Ohio State 28
Arizona State 31, Texas 28
Penn State 38, Boise State 24
Georgia 42, Indiana 38
Semifinals
Oregon 42, Arizona State 31
Georgia 28, Penn State 24
National title game
Oregon 31, Georgia 24
Bill Connelly
First round
Texas 35, Clemson 16
Ohio State 17, Tennessee 10
Penn State 31, SMU 20
Notre Dame 24, Indiana 23
Quarterfinals
Oregon 28, Ohio State 21
Texas 31, Arizona State 17
Penn State 24, Boise State 20
Notre Dame 20, Georgia 16
Semifinals
Oregon 35, Texas 31
Notre Dame 23, Penn State 21
National title game
Oregon 28, Notre Dame 27
David Hale
First round
Texas 45, Clemson 27
Ohio State 28, Tennessee 27
SMU 30, Penn State 28
Notre Dame 42, Indiana 10
Quarterfinals
Texas 34, Arizona State 21
Ohio State 32, Oregon 31
SMU 36, Boise State 33
Notre Dame 21, Georgia 20
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Texas 24
Notre Dame 35, SMU 28
National title game
Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 24
Eli Lederman
First round
Texas 41, Clemson 31
Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
Penn State 31, SMU 28
Notre Dame 34, Indiana 17
Quarterfinals
Texas 30, Arizona State 13
Oregon 35, Ohio State 34
Boise State 28, Penn State 20
Notre Dame 24, Georgia 16
Semifinals
Oregon 24, Texas 20
Notre Dame 27, Boise State 17
National title game
Oregon 27, Notre Dame 24
Chris Low
First round
Texas 31, Clemson 14
Ohio State 27, Tennessee 24
Penn State 35, SMU 21
Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20
Quarterfinals
Texas 34, Arizona State 24
Ohio State 30, Oregon 28
Boise State 28, Penn State 27
Georgia 24, Notre Dame 21
Semifinals
Ohio State 31, Texas 30
Georgia 34, Boise State 21
National title game
Georgia 28, Ohio State 23
Max Olson
First round
Texas 31, Clemson 20
Ohio State 17, Tennessee 14
Penn State 41, SMU 35
Indiana 24, Notre Dame 21
Quarterfinals
Texas 27, Arizona State 17
Oregon 35, Ohio State 13
Penn State 31, Boise State 21
Georgia 27, Indiana 10
Semifinals
Oregon 37, Texas 31
Georgia 20, Penn State 17
National title game
Oregon 34, Georgia 27
Adam Rittenberg
First round
Texas 24, Clemson 16
Ohio State 26, Tennessee 19
Penn State 34, SMU 23
Notre Dame 31, Indiana 21
Quarterfinals
Texas 33, Arizona State 20
Oregon 38, Ohio State 35
Penn State 35, Boise State 31
Notre Dame 19, Georgia 17
Semifinals
Oregon 31, Texas 21
Notre Dame 27, Penn State 26
National title game
Oregon 38, Notre Dame 27
Mark Schlabach
First round
Texas 24, Clemson 20
Ohio State 28, Tennessee 17
Penn State 34, SMU 24
Notre Dame 35, Indiana 21
Quarterfinals
Arizona State 24, Texas 21
Oregon 38, Ohio State 31
Penn State 27, Boise State 24
Georgia 24, Notre Dame 21
Semifinals
Oregon 38, Arizona State 27
Georgia 27, Penn State 21
National title game
Oregon 24, Georgia 20
Jake Trotter
First round
Texas 24, Clemson 12
Tennessee 21, Ohio State 20
Penn State 27, SMU 19
Notre Dame 31, Indiana 23
Quarterfinals
Arizona State 27, Texas 23
Oregon 35, Tennessee 28
Boise State 28, Penn State 27
Notre Dame 16, Georgia 14
Semifinals
Oregon 44, Arizona State 38
Notre Dame 20, Boise State 14
National title game
Oregon 30, Notre Dame 27
Paolo Uggetti
First round
Texas 27, Clemson 14
Tennessee 27, Ohio State 24
Penn State 34, SMU 20
Notre Dame 28, Indiana 17
Quarterfinals
Arizona State 27, Texas 24
Oregon 34, Tennessee 21
Penn State 31, Boise State 27
Notre Dame 21, Georgia 17
Semifinals
Oregon 38, Arizona State 27
Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20
National title game
Oregon 31, Notre Dame 20
Dave Wilson
First round
Texas 27, Clemson 17
Tennessee 34, Ohio State 31
Penn State 37, SMU 30
Notre Dame 24, Indiana 21
Quarterfinals
Texas 34, Arizona State 27
Oregon 30, Tennessee 24
Penn State 41, Boise State 24
Georgia 38, Notre Dame 27
Semifinals
Oregon 31, Texas 17
Georgia 28, Penn State 21
National title game
Oregon 28, Georgia 20
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Jorge Castillo
TAMPA, Fla. — New York Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner on Friday emphasized that he has not ordered his front office to drop the team’s player payroll below the highest competitive balance tax threshold of $301 million this season.
Steinbrenner, however, questioned whether fielding a payroll in that range is prudent.
“Does having a huge payroll really increase my chances that much of winning the championship?” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not sure there’s a strong correlation there. Having said that, we’re the New York Yankees, we know what our fans expect. We’re always going to be one of the highest in payroll. That’s not going to change. And it certainly didn’t change this year.”
In the wild-card era (since 1995), 21 of the 30 teams to win the World Series ranked in the top 10 in Opening Day payroll. However, just three teams since 2009, the year the Yankees claimed their last championship, have won the World Series ranked in the top three in payroll: The 2018 Boston Red Sox (first in the majors), 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers (second) and 2024 Dodgers (third).
This year, Steinbrenner said the Yankees, one of the most valuable franchises in professional sports, are currently projected to have a CBT payroll between $307 million and $308 million after a busy winter that included losing Juan Soto in free agency but adding Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. Cot’s Contracts, which tracks baseball salaries and payrolls, estimates the number to be $304.7 million, ranking fourth in the majors behind the Dodgers, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
The Yankees have ranked in the top three in payroll in 16 of the 17 seasons since Steinbrenner became chairman and controlling owner of the franchise in 2008. The exception was 2018, when the team finished seventh.
The team was one of the nine levied tax penalties last season — the Yankees paid $62.5 million as one of four clubs taxed at a base rate of 50% for exceeding the lowest threshold in three or more straight years — and one of four levied the stiffest penalties for surpassing the highest threshold. As a result, their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped 10 slots.
This season, any dollar spent over $301 million will come with a 60% surcharge.
“I would say no,” Steinbrenner said when asked whether dropping below the highest threshold is a priority. “The threshold is not the concern to me.”
The Yankees, however, have tried to trade right-hander Marcus Stroman to shed salary and perhaps allocate the money elsewhere, according to sources. Stroman is due to make $18.5 million this season, but he isn’t projected to break camp in the team’s starting rotation.
The two-time All-Star started the Yankees’ first Grapefruit League game of the year Friday against the Tampa Bay Rays, tossing a scoreless inning a week after missing the first two days of workouts and emphasizing he would not pitch out of the bullpen this season. He maintained his stance Friday.
“I haven’t thought about it, to be honest,” Stroman said after departing the Yankees’ 4-0 win. “I know who I am as a pitcher. I’m a very confident pitcher. I don’t think you’d want someone in your starting rotation that would be like, ‘Hey, I’m going to go to the bullpen.’ That’s not someone you’d want.”
Steinbrenner also reiterated that he would consider supporting a salary cap for the next collective bargaining agreement if a floor is also implemented “so that clubs that I feel aren’t spending enough on payroll to improve their team would have to spend more.”
The current CBA is set to expire after the 2026 season.
Reds manager Terry Francona plans to opt out of elective participation in the automated ball-strike challenge trial during spring training but is willing to let Cincinnati’s minor league players accustomed to the procedure use the system.
ABS allows pitchers, hitters and catchers an immediate objection to a ball-strike call. Major League Baseball is not fully adopting the system — which has been used in the minor leagues — this season but began a trial Thursday involving 13 spring training ballparks. Teams are allowed two challenges per game, which must come from on-field players and not the dugout or manager.
“I’m OK with seeing our younger kids do it because they’ve done it,” Francona said. “It’s not a strategy for [the MLB teams], so why work on it? I don’t want to make a farce of anything, but we’re here getting ready for a season and that’s not helping us get ready.”
ABS was used for the first time at Camelback Ranch in Thursday’s spring training opener between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.
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