Sean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
With the NHL schedule set to soon hit the holiday break — with no games on Dec. 24, 25 or 26 — it’s the perfect time to examine some betting trends from the first three calendar months of the 2024-25 campaign.
Which teams are best when favored at home? Which underdogs are overperforming? Find out the answers there, along with an updated set of Power Rankings, voted on by the ESPN hockey family.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Dec. 13. Betting stats are through Wednesday’s games; points percentages are through Thursday’s games. Victoria Matiash identified betting trends for the West, while Sean Allen handled the East.
Previous ranking: 2 Points percentage: 70.97%
The Capitals excel as underdogs, with a 9-3 record (75.0%) against the spread on the road (61.5% is the league average) and a 5-1 record (83.3%) at home (62.6% league average).
That’s a fun trend, but how often are the Caps going to be considered underdogs as they continue to flirt with the NHL points lead? They are still beating the spread as favorites better than the league rate (6-7 overall), but it’s not as stark as when they are the dogs.
Next eight days: vs. CAR (Dec. 20), vs. LA (Dec. 22), @ BOS (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 3 Points percentage: 69.12%
This week’s 3-2 loss in Anaheim strikes as even more uncommon in light of the Jets’ moneyline returns as the road favorite. But while 10-2 remains impressive overall, Winnipeg has a losing 5-7 record on the road altogether since Nov. 14.
Next eight days: vs. MIN (Dec. 21), @ TOR (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 5 Points percentage: 64.29%
If the Devils are rolling into town, watch out! With their punishing top power-play unit, the Devils deliver on the road regardless of favorite status. As road favorites, they’ve won nine of 12 games (75.0%), outperforming the 59.1% league average. Even as road underdogs, they excel, going 3-1 (75.0%), nearly doubling the overall road underdog win rate of 39.1%.
Next eight days: vs. PIT (Dec. 21), vs. NYR (Dec. 23), vs. CAR (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 1 Points percentage: 68.75%
When favored, Filip Gustavsson & Co. tend to win in tight fashion at home. A strong 8-3 (72.7%) as the favorite, the Wild are a symmetrically opposite 3-8 (27.3%) against the spread when expected to secure the victory at Xcel Energy Center, including two straight losses this week.
Next eight days: vs. UTA (Dec. 20), @ WPG (Dec. 21), vs. CHI (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 4 Points percentage: 70.31%
Nine and two when the home favorite — they’ve lost only three times at T-Mobile Arena altogether — Vegas manages just fine when their top producer doesn’t contribute. The club is 7-2 when Jack Eichel doesn’t register a point.
Next eight days: vs. SEA (Dec. 21), vs. ANA (Dec. 23), @ SJ (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 7 Points percentage: 66.13%
Defense first in Carolina. That hasn’t changed. The Hurricanes have shown clear trends when it comes to game totals. When the line for the Canes is set at 6.5, the game hits the under 17 of 24 times (70.8%), much more often the 57.4% league average. However, at 5.5, it flips, as Carolina has gone over five of seven times.
By the numbers, the Kings are much more successful when their captain contributes. A rollicking 15-9 when Anze Kopitar collects at least one point, the Kings are only 3-4 otherwise. They’re also 7-2 when favored at Crypto.com Arena.
Next eight days: @ NSH (Dec. 21), @ WSH (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 6 Points percentage: 63.64%
The Panthers haven’t been broadly viewed as underdogs since they knocked out the Bruins in 2023, but they embrace the moniker whenever it comes up in games. At home, they’ve won two of three as underdogs (66.7%), and on the road, they shine even brighter, going 4-1 as underdogs (80.0%), nearly doubling the league’s road underdog win rate of 39.2%.
Next eight days: vs. STL (Dec. 20), @ TB (Dec. 22), vs. TB (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 9 Points percentage: 65.63%
The Maple Leafs have been dominant at home, winning 13 of 17 games (76.5%) as the favorite and also earning the W the one time they were considered home underdogs. That strong home play is based in limiting goals, as games at Scotiabank Arena have also gone under 14 of 18 times on home ice. The unders are a much stronger trend for the Leafs at home, as their games have been under only four of 14 times on the road.
Next eight days: @ BUF (Dec. 20), vs. NYI (Dec. 21), vs. WPG (Dec. 23), @ DET (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 10 Points percentage: 61.29%
Another club that clearly enjoys the comforts of home, the Stars are 12-2 (85.7%) at American Airlines Center when deemed the favorite.
However, it’s a very different tale against the spread on the road, where Dallas — sporting a losing record altogether — is 2-9 (18.2%) to cover when backed to win.
Next eight days: vs. NYR (Dec. 20), @ UTA (Dec. 23), vs. MIN (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 11 Points percentage: 62.50%
Unimposing against the spread when expected to win all season long — 5-11 (31.2%) — the Oilers are improving in this category in recent play. Connor McDavid & Co. have beaten the opposition by a minimum of two goals in four of their past five at Rogers Place.
Next eight days: vs. SJ (Dec. 21), vs. OTT (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 14 Points percentage: 63.33%
The Lightning have been solid as home favorites, winning eight of 11 games (72.7%), surpassing the 60.9% league average. But it’s notable that at this juncture, more than two months into the season, the Bolts are largely untested against their own division. They’ve played only three games against Atlantic Division opponents, losing all three while failing to cover.
Next eight days: vs. FLA (Dec. 22), @ FLA (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 12 Points percentage: 59.38%
The Canucks’ remarkable road resume (10-2-2) is translating into an equally outstanding record as the straight-up favorite. They’ve lost only twice when backed by sportsbooks to win in 10 tries, including a narrow 3-2 defeat in Salt Lake City on Wednesday night.
Next eight days: vs. OTT (Dec. 21), vs. SJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 15 Points percentage: 55.58%
The Bruins hanging in near the top of the Atlantic has not come through dominance of opponents at home. While they may be 9-8 overall on familiar turf, they’ve covered the spread only three of 16 times when the sportsbooks have favored them at TD Garden (18.8% compared to league rate of 38.5% for home teams).
Next eight days: vs. BUF (Dec. 21), vs. WSH (Dec. 23), @ CBJ (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 16 Points percentage: 56.06%
The Flames are cooking at The Saddledome when holding a perceived edge. Forward Nazem Kadri — sizzling hot of late with a four-game goal streak — & Co. have lost just the once in six tries (83.3%) when dubbed the home favorite.
Next eight days: vs. CHI (Dec. 21)
Previous ranking: 13 Points percentage: 55.88%
When favored, this team doesn’t often cover the spread at home. The Avs’ dismal 3-11 record (21.4%) under such circumstances serves as stark contrast to their 8-1 success rate straight-up when perceived as the better team on the road. More oddly, they sport a winning record when Nathan MacKinnon doesn’t earn a single point.
Next eight days: @ ANA (Dec. 20), vs. SEA (Dec. 22), @ UTA (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 24 Points percentage: 56.45%
The Sens rank fifth in their own division, but you wouldn’t know it based on their record against their rivals. The Sens are 5-2 when facing opponents from the Atlantic and, strangely enough, the two losses are to teams with worse records. They’ve even managed a 4-3 total against the spread while beating up on their divisional foes.
Next eight days: @ VAN (Dec. 21), @ EDM (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 21 Points percentage: 56.45%
Enjoying a 4-0 road record, Utah is 5-0-1 since Dec. 7, relishing victories over at least one team from every division. The common denominator? Forward Dylan Guenther has registered a minimum of one point in every one of those contests.
Next eight days: @ MIN (Dec. 20), vs. ANA (Dec. 22), vs. DAL (Dec. 23), vs. COL (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 18 Points percentage: 48.53%
The Blues are having a tough time with their divisional opponents, securing the victory only once in six contests. Outside of an early December 4-1 victory over the Jets, they’ve been outscored 17-8 by other members of the Central.
Next eight days: @ FLA (Dec. 20), @ DET (Dec. 23), vs. NSH (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 25 Points percentage: 51.47%
The Penguins have been successful as home favorites, winning four of five games. However, they’ve struggled to cover, doing so just once in those opportunities (20.0%), below the 38.5% overall rate for home favorites. Their struggles stem from matchups with division foes, where Sidney Crosby and friends are 1-6 on the line and 2-5 against the spread.
Next eight days: @ NJ (Dec. 21), vs. PHI (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 19 Points percentage: 48.48%
Which came first, the Travis Konecny points or the Flyers covering the spread? They manage to cover more often when Konecny gets on the scoresheet (14-10) than not (2-6). The Flyers also vary from league trends for over/under outcomes at home, with the under coming in at a much higher rate at Wells Fargo Center (68.8%) than the league average (53.7%).
Next eight days: vs. CBJ (Dec. 21), @ PIT (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 17 Points percentage: 50.00%
They’ve avoided the home underdog label mostly, being favored in all but one of their home games, but they have not delivered. They are 7-8 on moneyline and a woeful 3-12 against the spread as the home favorite.
As they ship off players to the West Coast, eventually the books will start leaning toward the visiting side at Madison Square Garden if this slide continues.
Next eight days: @ DAL (Dec. 20), vs. CAR (Dec. 22), @ NJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 20 Points percentage: 47.06%
Straight up, the Kraken are proving an undesirable play as a home underdog with a 4-7 record (36.4%) while enjoying more success against the spread, covering in seven of 11 match-ups (63.6%). It helps when Jared McCann contributes to the scoresheet; Seattle has won only three times when he’s failed to do so.
Next eight days: @ VGK (Dec. 21), @ COL (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 22 Points percentage: 46.97%
The Isles are two different teams on the road. First, there are the underdog Islanders, a scrappy team that is 6-6 (50% win rate compared to league average 39.1%) and 9-3 against the spread. But then there are the favored Islanders on the road, a team that is a brutal 0-6 on the moneyline and ATS. For the Islanders to do well, we need to think they are going to lose. Sounds about right.
Next eight days: @ TOR (Dec. 21), vs. BUF (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 26 Points percentage: 48.39%
The Wings can keep things tight when playing in their own division. While they are 3-5 against their rivals, Detroit has covered the spread at a 5-3 rate. Additionally, they’ve covered the spread 10 of 13 times as dogs (76.9%) and eight of 13 times as favorites (61.5%) at home.
Next eight days: vs. MTL (Dec. 20), @ MTL (Dec. 21), vs. STL (Dec. 23), vs. TOR (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 23 Points percentage: 46.97%
The Blue Jackets consistently buck league trends on 6.5 totals. While the league hits the under 57.4% of the time, games with Columbus have gone under in 11 of 32 games (34.4%). Notably, they’ve yet to be involved in a game with a total set at 5.5, showing sportsbooks trust Elvis Merzlikins about as much as fantasy managers (Thursday night’s heroics aside).
Next eight days: @ PHI (Dec. 21), vs. MTL (Dec. 23), vs. BOS (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 29 Points percentage: 43.55%
Just ask a fantasy manager with Sam Montembeault about this tidbit: When the line is set at 5.5, games with Montreal have gone over five of seven times (71.4%), well above the league’s 51.5% over rate. Also, if the sportsbooks back them, get on board: The Habs are 2-0 as favorites this season.
Next eight days: @ DET (Dec. 20), vs. DET (Dec. 21), @ CBJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 28 Points percentage: 46.67%
One might be advised to take the under, particularly when the bar is set at 6.5 goals. Games involving the Ducks, who have scored the second fewest goals this season, have slid below that total mark on 15 of 20 occasions (75%).
Next eight days: vs. COL (Dec. 20), @ UTA (Dec. 22), @ VGK (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 30 Points percentage: 38.57%
More like “undersharks,” am I right? Though they have not once been labeled the favorite home or away this season, Macklin Celebrini and the rebuilding Sharks are 11-4 (73.3%) against the spread as the home dog and 13-6 (68.4%) away from SAP Center.
Next eight days: @ EDM (Dec. 21), @ VAN (Dec. 23), vs. VGK (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 27 Points percentage: 40.63%
The Sabres are unreliable at home, whether favored or not. That’s not a shocking statement for a team winless in its last 11, but even as home favorites, they’ve won just three of seven games (42.9%). That said, when they are the underdog, Buffalo does manage to beat the spread at home (8-3 for a 72.7% rate that trumps the league-wide 62.6%).
Next eight days: vs. TOR (Dec. 20), @ BOS (Dec. 21), @ NYI (Dec. 23), vs. CHI (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 31 Points percentage: 39.39%
Not astonishing, considering they’ve scored the third-fewest number of goals in the league, but the Blackhawks have hit the under 13 times and the over five times on the road (72.2% under rate). They also don’t much care for too much rest, posting a 1-8-1 record in games following a break of two days.
Next eight days: @ CGY (Dec. 21), @ MIN (Dec. 23), @ BUF (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 32 Points percentage: 37.88%
While the disappointing Predators don’t often overcome the odds while traveling, they repeatedly cover. Only 2-10 (16.7%) as road underdogs — including a recent 4-1 win over the Stars in Dallas — Nashville is 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Dec. 21), vs. CAR (Dec. 23), @ STL (Dec. 27)
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — Los Angeles Dodgers starter Blake Snell will back off his throwing program as he continues to recover from left shoulder inflammation, according to manager Dave Roberts.
“As he was playing catch, he just didn’t feel great,” Roberts said Wednesday afternoon before the Dodgers played the Chicago Cubs. “Right now, we’re going to slow play the throwing. Will probably get it looked at again when we get back home.”
Snell, 32, has been on the injured list since early April after making just two starts for the Dodgers. He signed a five-year, $182 million contract this past offseason.
Snell, who was set to throw a bullpen session Wednesday, felt discomfort in the shoulder while playing catch Tuesday. Roberts was asked how concerning the latest setback was.
“I wouldn’t say concerning because part of the messaging from us to Blake is, it’s about later on in the season and if there’s any type of discomfort, let’s not try to fight through it,” Roberts responded.
Snell is one of several Dodgers pitchers on the mend, including left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who pitched three innings in a minor league start Tuesday, his second rehab outing this spring.
“Velocity was good,” Roberts said. “Got into the fourth inning. He’ll make a start next week. Really positive stuff.”
Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani is throwing again after missing time on the paternity list. He’ll have another bullpen session Saturday as he recovers from elbow surgery, though the team still doesn’t have a timetable for his return to major league action.
The team was also without catcher Will Smith on Wednesday after he injured his wrist on a play at the plate in Tuesday’s loss to the Cubs.
“As he made the tag, his [left] wrist turned in and so there’s some residual soreness,” Roberts said.
Smith could get imaging done when the team returns to Los Angeles, but Roberts wasn’t overly concerned about the injury.
The Los Angeles native has torched his childhood team this season, including Wednesday night at Wrigley Field when he went 3-for-4 with a home run, two stolen bases and a career-high four RBIs, helping the Cubs to a 7-6 win. It came one night after Chicago beat L.A. 11-10, with Crow-Armstrong contributing another home run.
He was asked Wednesday whether his production has special meaning coming against the team he used to root for.
“Absolutely,” he said. “I mean, they are regarded as the best, and I think we’ve enjoyed being able to show that we’re right there with them, and yeah, it’s always a little extra special for me getting to do it against the team I grew up going to see.”
Crow-Armstrong erased a 2-0 Cubs deficit with an opposite-field, three-run homer in the fourth inning, then added a run-scoring single an inning later, which turned out to be the final run of the night for the Cubs.
Overall, he had four home runs and nine RBIs in the seven-game season series against the Dodgers, which the Cubs won 4-3 after losing the first two games in Japan in mid-March. But that was before the Cubs’ offense took off. They’re averaging an MLB-high 6.3 runs per game.
Crow-Armstrong’s season took off as well, starting over a week ago when the teams met in Los Angeles. In the 10 games since, the 23-year-old is hitting .400 with five home runs.
“He needs to send me a bottle of wine or some golf balls with all the success he’s had,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts quipped before Wednesday’s game.
Roberts and Crow-Armstrong exchanged pleasantries before the first game of the series, as the second-year player is friends with Roberts’ son, Cole. The two played against each other growing up.
“I got a couple different connections to Doc,” Crow-Armstrong said. “He’s so great.”
That’s the same word Crow-Armstrong’s teammates are using about him as he continues to impress both at the plate and in the field. According to ESPN Research, he’s the fastest player in Cubs history to reach five home runs and 10 stolen bases, doing it in 26 games.
Plus, his pitchers love seeing him patrol center field.
“Defensively, I got to say he’s probably the best,” Wednesday’s starter, Matthew Boyd, said. “And what he’s doing at the plate is no surprise.”
Crow-Armstrong showed signs of breaking out late last year but then struggled early this season before locking in during the Cubs’ most recent road trip. He said he got “on-time” with his swing while learning how to deal with failure better. He was asked how satisfied he is with his game right now.
“If it comes out in a win, it’s very satisfactory,” he said. “It makes me feel very content. I love being able to impact it in any way I can.”
So does his manager, who called Wednesday a “wonderful game” for Crow-Armstrong.
“He made his presence felt in a big way for sure,” Craig Counsell said.
Crow-Armstrong is quickly becoming a fan favorite, as the Cubs faithful are taking to his aggressive style of play. He was asked what it’s like to hear his name chanted when he comes to the plate after producing in previous at-bats.
“I’ve tried to tune that out,” he said with a laugh. “I was actually thinking about it yesterday and I was like, I got to be 0-for-20 when they’ve chanted my name. But they continue to chant and they get behind every one of us and it’s the coolest thing.”
WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The Texas Rangers placed shortstop Corey Seager on the 10-day injured list Wednesday because of a strained right hamstring.
Seager, 30, pulled up while running to first base in the sixth inning Tuesday at the Athletics and left the game. He started 21 of Texas’ first 23 games this season and is hitting .286 with four home runs and six RBIs. Seager has a team-high 17 hits since April 8.
The Rangers also called up infielder Nick Ahmed and designated left-handed pitcher Walter Pennington for assignment. Ahmed, 35, is seeking to appear in a major league game for the 12th consecutive season. He has played for Arizona (2014-23), San Francisco (2024), the Los Angeles Dodgers (2024) and San Diego (2024).