Texas and Clemson have never played before, but their playoff game is still a rematch
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
AUSTIN, Texas — When the first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was revealed, Cade Klubnik took one look at the screen, rubbed his forehead and laughed. He knew immediately what it meant.
The Austin native would be returning to his hometown to lead No. 12 Clemson against No. 5 Texas on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, TNT/Max), and immediately, Texas high school football fans celebrated the rematch of one of the most hyped quarterback meetings in the state’s rich history.
In January 2021, Klubnik and his Austin Westlake team beat Quinn Ewers and Southlake Carroll 52-34 in the 6A Division II state championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington in a matchup of two elite prospects. Both were originally in the same class, ranked as the No. 1 and No. 2 quarterbacks in the state, with Ewers rated No. 1 nationally as well, earning one of the highest grades of all time for a recruit. Ultimately, Ewers would reclassify and skip his senior year of high school, heading to Ohio State before transferring to Texas.
Both played for legendary high school programs: Westlake has won four state championships while Southlake has eight. And both QBs played for Dodges — Todd Dodge and his son Riley — with Todd among the most venerated high school coaches in Texas history, whose influence on football in the state has led to this moment. The “Dodge Bowl,” as it was known, became the first time in history a father coached against his son for a state title in Texas.
“The thing I remember about the game is the first two possessions I went, ‘Damn, I shared too much information with my son through the years,” Todd said. “Because he knows exactly how to attack our defense.'”
In that game, Michael Taaffe caught passes from both quarterbacks. “He was like Travis Hunter for us through the playoffs,” Todd said of the two-way star who caught five passes from Klubnik against Southlake, and intercepted Ewers twice, earning defensive MVP honors. Fortunately for Ewers now, Taaffe is on his side as an All-American safety for the Longhorns.
For two teams that have never met in college football history, the Clemson-Texas game has ties that run deep.
“It feels a little weird watching on tape, watching Cade, knowing that he was my quarterback for a couple of years and now I’m playing against him,” Taaffe said this week. “It’s going to be so fun.”
Taaffe says they texted each other that they loved each other this week. Then he and Klubnik, who he said first played together in third or fourth grade, started getting ready to face off.
“He’s going to do whatever it takes,” Taaffe said. “I don’t assume that there’s going to be a lot of sliding out of Cade come Saturday. There’s probably not going to be a lot of stepping out of bounds, especially if he sees 16 [Taaffe’s number]. He’s going to try to impose his will on me. He’s definitely going to try to lower his shoulder on me and he’s going to tell me about it too. I’m going to be ready for that and … I’m going to be ready to lower my shoulder on him.”
THE FIRST ON-CAMPUS playoff game in FBS history in Texas featuring two of the state’s biggest quarterback prospects is a real conundrum for Brad Thomas, the lead pastor at Austin Ridge Church. High school football is often referred to as a religion in Texas, something Thomas is currently navigating.
Thomas, a South Carolina native and a Clemson grad, went to seminary in Dallas, met his wife Courtney in Texas and stayed. He’s been in Austin for 20 years now. The Klubnik family has been members of his church the entire time, and Ewers has attended since he’s been in Austin. Thomas was introduced to Ewers in the church foyer for the first time by Klubnik.
“This is probably the worst-case scenario for me as a pastor of a church that mainly consists of UT people,” Thomas joked. “If Clemson wins the game, I probably need to find a job. If we lose the game, we probably need to find a job.”
Klubnik, meanwhile, will be playing against six former Westlake players on the Texas roster, acknowledging that it’ll be strange to land at the Austin airport and bus over to a hotel in his hometown as a visitor. He joked this week that he heard from so many people it would’ve been nice to have a flip phone to cut down on the distractions but was excited about the rematch with his old friend.
“Quinn and I go way back,” Klubnik said. “We played each other in seventh grade and 7-on-7 and stuff. And then met my junior year in the state championship game, and it was definitely a very high-profile game.”
The two even hung out in California at the Elite 11 quarterback competition when they were in high school, with both Dodges going to support their stars and the families having dinner together.
“It’s definitely cool for sure,” Ewers said this week. “Me and Cade have a good relationship and he’s a cool dude and it is definitely cool to get to play each other again. It’s come full circle and whatnot.”
Todd Dodge said the two quarterbacks are different, each with his own style.
“They’re probably about as opposite of personalities as you’ll ever get,” he said. “Cade is pretty high-strung and a rah-rah leader kind of guy, getting his team fired up. Quinn’s kind of Cool Hand Luke. Their teams need both of those things.”
Klubnik’s parents went to Texas A&M but said Cade didn’t grow up with the rivalry since it was on hiatus, so any sense of playing Texas is more of hometown excitement than any animosity.
With Texas focused on Ewers, Dodge said the Aggies were the ones who were surprisingly off the radar, simply because Jimbo Fisher didn’t seem interested.
“If anybody missed out on Cade Klubnik in the state of Texas, it was Texas A&M,” Dodge said. “They just didn’t show any interest. Everybody else in the country did, but they didn’t.”
So Texas coach Steve Sarkisian mentioned being surprised when Klubnik seemed focused on Clemson during recruiting.
“Big fan of Cade,” Sarkisian said. “[But] he always had a dream of going to Clemson.”
Thomas, who proudly preached in an orange suit after Clemson won national championship games, hopes he can take a little credit.
“We’ve had about 20 to 25 kids from Austin Ridge go to Clemson in the last, I’d say six years, and many of the athletes, I really feel like I should be [getting] a kickback or something. I’ve been doing subliminal messaging for about 18 years.”
Thomas knows of rivalries. His daughter Lydia graduated from Texas. Courtney graduated from Oklahoma. The Thomas family has a flagpole outside their house with Clemson, Texas and OU flags on it, stacked in order of who’s riding the highest at the moment. He’s hoping Clemson orange will be waving over burnt orange in the hierarchy after this weekend.
“I’m excited to watch these kids play,” Thomas said. “I grew up near Clemson and so that’s just been part of my whole life. I’m totally excited about this game and I’m going to be wearing my Clemson garb surrounded by Horns.”
EVEN THE COACHES have shared experiences with the quarterbacks. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney recalled his only visit to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium this week. It was alongside Sarkisian watching Westlake and Klubnik beat Austin Vandegrift 70-7 in a playoff quarterfinal on campus at Texas.
“The only time I’ve been at a game at this stadium, I actually stood in the end zone with Sark and watched Cade play,” Swinney said.
That was a meaningful game for Todd Dodge, a former Longhorns quarterback, as well.
“It’s actually the first time I’d ever got to coach at the place that I played at,” he said. “Cade had a big game, but I’ll never forget it was the first time Dabo had seen him play in person.”
Todd Dodge became the first Texas high school football player to throw for more than 3,000 yards in 1980 before playing for Texas and becoming a legendary high school coach with his fingerprints all over this matchup.
From 2000 to 2002, he went 19-10 in the suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth at Southlake before he turned it into a machine. From 2002 to 2006, the Carroll Dragons went 79-1, with only a 16-15 loss to Katy in the 2003 state championship game. He coached stars like Alabama’s Greg McElroy, Missouri’s Chase Daniel and passed along plenty to his son, Riley, who committed to Texas, but followed Todd when he took the job at North Texas and played there.
“He’s a legend,” Cade’s mom, Kim Klubnik, said. “He’s a walking, living legend and his son is too.”
Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s current offensive coordinator, who was the offensive coordinator at SMU at the time of the Westlake-Southlake title game nearby at AT&T Stadium, said he remembers the anticipation around the Ewers-Klubnik heavyweight fight.
“Knowing everybody’s story and how they were brought up and the high schools that they went to, I just have a deep appreciation for their story, really both of them,” he said. “We weren’t really in the mix for ’em at that time. I remember when the two Dodges played each other. I remember watching the game on TV, a lot of anticipation. I was certainly tuned in to watch the father-son battle. And oh, by the way, you got these two highly touted elite quarterbacks leading the charge for both teams.”
Riley, who grew up in West Texas, said the Dodge influence and the Southlake mystique — they all dye their hair blonde for the playoffs as a sign of team unity — was a big part of his coaching upbringing too.
“I remember being in little ol’ Muleshoe, watching Fox Sports Southwest and watching the state championship games on TV and seeing the bleached hair and them throwing the ball all over the yard. It was awesome. Those quarterbacks were always really good, so I remember that vividly.”
So it’ll be a big game for Riley too. And he knows his quarterback is going to be soaking it all in.
“Cade may know 60 percent of the crowd that’s going to be there that night,” Riley said. “It’ll be a pretty special evening for him.”
WHEN THE PAIRING was first announced, Swinney called the game the “Mukuba Bowl.”
Texas safety Andrew Mukuba, an Austin native who played for three years at Clemson before transferring back home, said he and Klubnik were “locker buddies” when they were on the same team.
“The only two guys from Austin, Texas, so we clicked a little bit,” Mukuba said, who added that his former teammates have been “kind of talking crazy,” in text messages.
“It’s good to go through that with them,” Mukuba said. “I was on the same side with them at one point. But it’s going to be exciting now.”
Taaffe said Mukuba’s story can’t be overlooked among the quarterbacks. The big hitter who knocked Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton‘s helmet off in the SEC championship game is locked in.
“There’s so many storylines about Quinn, about Cade, about myself, but Andrew, I mean those are all his guys,” Taaffe said. “He knows every single one of them because I could be mistaken, but I don’t think Clemson gets people out of the portal. Literally he knows every single guy from that team. … It’s going to be an interesting game for him, but he’s definitely ready. I mean, he’s going the extra mile to be ready for this game and he’s going to do what he does.”
But Taaffe has his own motivations. Most notably, playing against Klubnik.
Taaffe said he and Klubnik forged a bond during COVID-19, with Taaffe even working with his QB to learn the offense.
Taaffe also worked out for two hours for more than 100 straight days with Mukuba and Jahdae Barron, this year’s Thorpe Award winner, all Austin DBs who now star together on the nation’s top-ranked pass defense. Then, he would spend time learning the details of the passing game with Klubnik.
“I had 22 hours of the day left, and me and Cade were throwing the ball, running routes and figuring out every single avenue how to win the state championship,” Taaffe said. “That’s how me and Cade kind of took off. We had nothing to do but become best friends because we were trying to go win a state championship.”
He said he knows Klubnik’s tendencies. But he said Klubnik knows his too.
“He’s going to probably show me one thing that they’ve done on film a hundred times and it’s going to be the opposite,” he said. But he’s not conflicted about what he needs to do.
“I’m a competitor no matter who it is,” Taaffe said. “My job is to take my opponent’s soul. That’s what I try to do, no matter if it’s my best friend or the guy that I hate the most on this planet.”
TOD AND KIM Klubnik, who retired when Cade went to college and bought an RV to follow Clemson to every game, have made plenty of friends out that way. They’ve spent the week handling recommendations for Austin BBQ or Mexican restaurants. “One thing that’s been really sweet is how kind our Longhorn friends have been to us this week, offering to help get tickets or whatever we need,” Kim said. “They’ve just been really kind and we really, really appreciate our Longhorn friends right now.”
Thomas is excited to see the two quarterbacks play on a giant stage after enduring their share of criticism over the past couple of seasons.
“People were wanting Cade to get in the portal after his sophomore year. They expected Cade to be Trevor Lawrence. Well, he’s not Trevor Lawrence,” Thomas said. “People want Quinn to leave every game. They expect everybody to be Colt McCoy or Vince [Young]. The Texas fans are calling for Arch to play. I’ve watched both of these kids handle this with such grace and such patience and perseverance. So I think this is also an opportunity for these two kids to be on the same field and just be who they are, which is really cool.”
Both Dodges have said Texas’ grueling high school playoff schedule — the only state where teams play up to a 16-game season — and the attention that comes with being a star in their programs have prepared them for this moment.
“I’d be more shocked if they weren’t in these types of games in their college career,” Riley Dodge told Dave Campbell’s Texas Football. “Both battled through adversity and doubters. They both went to work and handled their day-to-day and came out better for it. Playing in big programs under a spotlight set them up for success.”
They’re both extremely close to their quarterbacks and say they are among the finest the state has ever produced.
“Riley and Quinn have a tremendous relationship,” Todd Dodge said. “They keep in touch in the same way I do with Cade. Those two quarterbacks, what a matchup and what great players, I’m so proud of both of them as they lead their teams into the college playoffs.”
Still, like Taaffe, he’s got to watch Klubnik going up against his Longhorns.
“Yeah, there’ll be some mixed emotions going this week,” Todd said. “But the beautiful thing is how much fun it’s going to be.”
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Bill Connelly
I always say that the worse a week looks on paper, the wilder it ends up becoming. If that’s true, brace yourself for just about the wildest week of all time. After a Week 1 that had three top-10 headline games and Bill Belichick’s not-so-hot debut, the biggest game of Week 2 is a Jordan Brand matchup between the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines and No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners. Nine AP top-10 teams are in action, but my SP+ ratings project them as favorites by a combined 360.3 points. Illinois-Duke might be the biggest game in Saturday’s noon ET window.
It’s an odd schedule, in other words. But in these parts, we love alternative programming. Michigan-OU will give us the Wolverines’ Bryce Underwood facing the most hostile environment of his young career. The Iowa-Iowa State winner will be a legit College Football Playoff contender. The same goes for the Kansas-Mizzou winner. (That’s right, the Border War — er, Border Showdown — is back!!) And after Boise State’s Week 1 defeat to USF, the wide-open battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP spot features a number of huge résumé-building opportunities in Week 2.
There’s probably no need to watch what the top teams are up to this week (though the Grambling-Ohio State halftime show should be amazing). But we’re going to entertain ourselves all the same. Here’s everything you need to know about Week 2.
All times Eastern.
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Michigan-Oklahoma | Big Ten challenges
KU-Mizzou is back | G5’s big week | Week 2 playlist
Two big brands trying to look the part
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s like a blind spot in college football’s lore: Michigan and Oklahoma rank first (1,013) and tied for fifth (951), respectively, in college football wins, but they’ve played each other only once. Nearly 50 years ago, in the 1976 Orange Bowl — the first time a Big Ten team was allowed to play in a bowl other than the Rose — Oklahoma won a 14-6 slog that, when paired with Ohio State’s loss in the Rose Bowl, earned the Sooners their fifth of seven national titles. Otherwise, these two iconic helmets have never crossed paths.
After down seasons in 2024, both programs expect improvement this fall. They should have excellent defenses again, but on offense Michigan signed all-world freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and a new coordinator (Chip Lindsey) while Oklahoma went with a full-on transplant, taking Washington State’s OC (Ben Arbuckle) and QB (John Mateer) and nearly a full lineup’s worth of transfers. Everyone looked as good as expected in easy Week 1 wins, but now the rubber meets the road.
Owen Field vs. a true freshman
The first time I attended an Oklahoma game in Norman, the home crowd forced a fumble. With OU nursing a narrow fourth-quarter lead over Missouri in 2007, Sooners fans made such shrill noise that (A) I had to grab on to the seatback in front of me because my equilibrium was failing, and (B) Mizzou’s Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin miscommunicated and botched an exchange, which Curtis Lofton recovered and took for a touchdown. What they call Sooner Magic might simply be eardrum-bursting shrillness. Regardless, it’s probably going to test Underwood quite a bit.
Underwood was perfectly solid for a true freshman starting in his first collegiate game. New Mexico did its best to confuse him, but he went 21-for-31 for 251 yards. He got help from an effective run game that produced a couple of 50-yard bursts from Justice Haynes and no negative plays.
There was one red flag, though: UNM pressured him seven times, and in those plays he took two sacks, completed just two passes and averaged 2.0 yards per dropback. OU is probably going to pressure him more than seven times. The Sooners ranked 13th nationally in sack rate last year and boast a bevy of pass rushers led by R Mason Thomas. The Sooners also ranked second in rushing success rate allowed, meaning there’s no guarantee that Underwood can lean on Haynes.
Underwood is “no average freshman,” but it’s common for even an awesome blue-chipper to flunk an early road test. Still, if he can avoid devastating mistakes in a deafening environment and the Michigan defense plays its part, the Wolverines could have a chance.
Big plays and rushing quarterbacks
If Week 1 was any indication, a repeat of the 14-6 scoreline from the first Michigan-Oklahoma game is conceivable. The biggest story of Week 1 to me was the complete disappearance of points. The use of safe, two-high coverage (with two high safeties patrolling and attempting to limit big plays) has increased. Combined with the fact that defenses have adapted well to tempo offenses through the years, this led to long, frequently scoreless drives and low point totals in Week 1. It’s as if the entire college football universe suddenly turned into Iowa.
How do you punish teams for two-high looks and force them to get aggressive? With ruthless efficiency. For the SEC in Week 1, that frequently meant running the QB. Auburn’s Jackson Arnold rushed for 151 non-sack yards against Baylor, while Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Missouri’s Beau Pribula topped 70 yards and seven others topped 30.
Mateer didn’t need to run much against Illinois State. He completed seven passes of 20-plus yards against the Redbirds (the Sooners averaged just 1.5 such completions per game in 2024). Still, considering he had games of 212 and 127 non-sack rushing yards at Wazzu in 2024, plus six more games over 70 yards, we know he’ll probably run a lot when it matters.
Michigan used two-high coverage 38% of the time in Week 1 — 19th most in the FBS — so I’m guessing Mateer’s legs will be frequently involved Saturday evening even though star running back transfer Jaydn Ott should be ready for a heavier load. A threat from Mateer will put pressure on Michigan’s linebackers, which could make the first-half absence of Jaishawn Barham a concern. Of course, Michigan’s defensive front, led by veteran Rayshaun Benny and transfers Tré Williams and Damon Payne, will test OU’s rebuilt offensive line in ways that ISU couldn’t.
Last week didn’t give us definitive answers to the offseason questions we had about the Wolverines or the Sooners. But one of them will be 2-0 and feeling awfully good about themselves Sunday morning.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 5.7 | FPI projection: OU by 0.9
Big tests for Big Ten hopefuls
Even without the ridiculous “multiple auto-bids in a college football invitational” idea, the Big Ten stands to get plenty of teams into a 12- or 16-team CFP moving forward. Anyone who can get to 10 wins or so is going to have a good shot.
Per SP+, Illinois has a 29% chance of reaching 10-2 or better, and if Bret Bielema’s Illini survive what amounts to a coin-toss game at Duke on Saturday, those odds will see a pretty solid boost. Iowa is at only 4%, but if the Hawkeyes beat their Cy-Hawk rivals — something they’ve done six straight times in Ames — their outlook will be rosier. Noon is Big Ten Time, and Saturday features a pair of awfully important noon contests.
Few teams have proved more through two games than Iowa State. The Cyclones outlasted Kansas State in a massively important Week 0 contest in Ireland, then returned home and mauled both jet lag and a solid South Dakota team last Saturday. They’re tackling well, defending the run effectively and forcing loads of turnovers. Basically, they’re doing the things Iowa typically does to win lots of games.
Iowa wasn’t tested much against Albany in Week 1; the Hawkeyes ran the ball at will — Terrell Washington Jr., Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson had 33 combined carries for 238 yards — and they neither asked for nor got much from new quarterback Mark Gronowski. The defense gave up a single, 68-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter but otherwise allowed 2.9 yards per play.
A two-time FCS national champion at South Dakota State, Gronowski disclosed that he had some “anxiety and anxiousness” in his first FBS start, and he suffered some misfires while going 8-for-15 for just 44 yards. (He had 47 non-sack rushing yards, too, which was something.) He’ll have to get over that pretty quickly in Ames. And against ISU quarterback Rocco Becht, who was ever-so-slightly better Saturday (19-for-20 for 278 yards and three TDs), the Iowa defense will have to prove that it remains plug-and-play — Becht & Co. will test the Hawkeyes’ five new starters in the back seven.
Enough Big 12 teams looked awesome in Week 1 that the conference doesn’t have to think about settling for being a one-bid league just yet. Still, with a loss Saturday, ISU could focus on reaching the CFP with a conference title. Iowa probably won’t have that luxury; this one is therefore a bit more important for the road team. But considering the Hawkeyes’ recent record in Ames, that probably doesn’t scare them all that much.
Current line: ISU -3.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 6.5 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.8
Since the start of 2024, 24 power-conference teams have won double-digit games. Illinois and Duke are among them. Granted, they’re a combined 11-2 in one-score finishes in that span, and that will likely be hard to maintain, but both entered 2025 feeling spry and ambitious, and both crafted easy Week 1 wins.
Well, it was eventually easy for Duke. The Blue Devils found themselves tied with Elon at halftime, thanks in part to a missed field goal and a fumble, before winning the second half by 28. Expensive new quarterback Darian Mensah had to stay in a bit longer than intended and took a pair of sacks, but he finished 27-for-34 for 389 yards and three TDs.
Coach Manny Diaz’s intentions were clear this offseason. The Blue Devils won nine games despite an inefficient, three-and-outs-heavy offense last season, so he spent big to land one of the best QBs in the portal. Play Diaz defense and get high-level QB play and you’re going to be awfully good.
Illinois has provided some proof of concept in that regard. Granted, the Illini defense is far more bend-don’t-break than Diaz’s aggressive units, and Luke Altmyer isn’t exactly a Heisman contender. But he has the best QBR of any Illinois quarterback for the past 20 years (min. 14 starts), and the Illini return about seven starters from a unit that ranked 26th in defensive SP+.
Everything played out as intended in a 45-3 win over Western Illinois. Altmyer went 17-for-21 (albeit with three sacks), while running backs Kaden Feagin, Aidan Laughery and Ca’Lil Valentine combined for 226 rushing yards and the defense allowed 3.0 yards per play. The sacks might be red flags for both QBs, but we’ll learn a lot about two intriguing teams in Durham. And one might actually lose a close game for once.
Current line: Illini -2.5 | SP+ projection: Illini by 2.9 | FPI projection: Duke by 0.1
3:25
Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz reviews Week 1, looks to matchup vs. Kansas
Drinkwitz expresses the Tigers’ need to improve each week, reviews what they can change from last week and how they can put themselves in a position to win against the Jayhawks.
A mighty big Border Showdown
It has featured weird ties, rushing records and probably a few too many Civil War references, if we’re being honest, but the Border Showdown is back for a couple of years! Hell, yes. And whether Mizzou and Kansas players are prepared or not — almost none of them really grew up with this rivalry, after all — they’re going to be playing in a lion’s den Saturday afternoon. “I had no idea about the whole Civil War history,” Missouri QB Beau Pribula told the media this week. “I thought it was just a sports rivalry, but I guess it goes beyond that.” Indeed.
Emotions aside, this is a massive game for two programs that have looked the part of late. Mizzou rocked Central Arkansas by 55 points last Thursday, and Kansas has beaten Fresno State and Wagner by a combined 77-14. Mizzou is 22-5 since the start of 2023 — only Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan can top that 81.5% win rate — and although close losses dragged KU down to 5-7 last year, the Jayhawks have still enjoyed a spectacular program turnaround under Lance Leipold. They’ve been good enough early on to think of themselves as Big 12 contenders. (Then again, who isn’t a Big 12 contender?)
Pribula, a Penn State transfer, lit Mizzou fans’ imaginations up with a brilliant debut, completing 23 of 28 passes for 283 yards and two scores while rushing for five first downs and ripping off a 31-yard touchdown run. The Tigers’ offensive line was probably their biggest question mark heading into the season, and it looked fine aside from one confusingly awful second-quarter drive. The unit had better have those glitches ironed out because the Kansas defense has been attacking with far more vigor under new coordinator D.K. McDonald. It has already recorded 19 tackles for loss, 6 sacks and 8 passes defended.
Strangely, it seems as if the Jayhawks’ defense is ahead of their offense at the moment. Quarterback Jalon Daniels & Co. have been efficient enough, but situational play has been horrendous: Kansas is 101st in third-down conversion rate (30.0%), and that includes a trio of third-and-1 conversions; on third-and-3 or more, it’s a ghastly 3-for-17 (17.6%). The Jayhawks are also 78th in red zone TD rate (8-for-13) and 103rd in goal-to-go TD rate (1-for-4). These numbers are so bad that they’re almost guaranteed to improve. But Mizzou is 11th in defensive SP+ and held UCA to 2 or fewer yards on 30 of 62 snaps last week. This might not be the best week to expect third-down improvement.
Mizzou did get bitten by the injury bug last Thursday: Quarterback Sam Horn, supposedly still in a battle with Pribula at kickoff, suffered an injury on his first snap and will miss at least a few weeks, and big-legged kicker Blake Craig is now out for the season. The Tigers won a lot of close games over the past couple of years, and long field goals were a huge part of that. The bar is pretty high for freshman kicker Robert Meyer.
Current line: Mizzou -6.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 3.4
Résumé Week in the Group of 5
Heading into 2025, it seemed like a “Boise State vs. the Field” situation when it came to landing the guaranteed Group of 5 CFP spot. Well, the Field swatted that down pretty quickly. USF’s stunning 34-7 win over BSU in Week 1 opened the CFP race wide. BSU’s hopes aren’t kaput, but the Broncos are now part of the second tier of contenders.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor lists 11 G5 teams with at least a 2.0% chance of reaching the CFP: Tulane (31.2%), Memphis (16.3%), USF (14.3%), UNLV (13.5%), Boise State (3.8%), Texas State (3.3%), Fresno State (3.1%), Navy (3.0%), JMU (2.6%), Ohio (2.3%) and UTSA (2.0%). At least six of these teams have particularly interesting matchups in Week 2, games that could alter these odds a solid amount. Here they are in chronological order:
JMU is the betting favorite in the Sun Belt and has a prime upset opportunity Friday night. Both teams handled FCS opponents with aplomb in Week 1. New Louisville quarterback Miller Moss looked good, and Isaac Brown needed only six carries to gain 126 yards in a 51-17 win over Eastern Kentucky. JMU, meanwhile, outgained Weber State by 300 yards and outscored the Wildcats by 35. Is Louisville simply too explosive for the Dukes to handle, or might JMU make this game awfully tricky for Moss & Co.?
Current line: Louisville -14.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 11.4 | FPI projection: Louisville by 8.4
This year’s Battle of I-35 is a huge head-to-head matchup of G5 hopefuls in the Alamo Dome, and it might honestly be one of my favorite matchups of Week 2. UTSA was explosive and exciting against Texas A&M, trailing by only four in the third quarter before stumbling late. Texas State, meanwhile, walloped Eastern Michigan 52-27. Despite massive turnover, the Bobcats look dangerous once again, and they finally beat UTSA as an FBS rival last year. Major track meet potential here.
Current line: UTSA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UTSA by 3.8 | FPI projection: UTSA by 1.7
USF has the third-best odds of any G5 team to reach the CFP, and that’s with a likely loss in Gainesville this weekend. If the Bulls can pull an upset here or even give the playoff committee something to think about with a super-competitive loss, that will be quite the bonus. Is that actually likely? We’ll see. USF’s offense was all-or-nothing against Boise State, and the Bulls started quite slowly overall and benefited from some turnovers luck. Still, they’re super explosive, and they now face a Florida team that wasn’t all that explosive itself against Long Island last week.
Current line: Florida -17.5 | SP+ projection: by 20.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 10.8
Tulane is your new G5 leader, thanks both to Boise State’s loss and to the Green Wave’s utterly dominant 23-3 win over Northwestern. They’ll face a unique test in Mobile. Can they avoid a letdown after such a stirring showing? And how will they perform against a team that — sorry, Northwestern fans — might actually be able to pass? USA’s Bishop Davenport was 12-of-14 with three completions of 30-plus yards against Morgan State last week, and though I doubt the Jaguars’ defense can handle Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff & Co., the offense might score enough to make this uncomfortable.
Current line: Tulane -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 10.7 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.6
UNLV has suffered serious defensive issues thus far, giving up a combined 52 points and 887 yards to Idaho State and Sam Houston. So why are the Rebels fourth on the G5 playoff odds list? Because of an offense that has scored 76 points and gained 936 yards. That raw potential might be problematic for a UCLA team that got utterly swamped by Utah on both offense and defense last week. The Bruins could rebound, but I have no idea what they’ve done to earn being favored in this game.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 2.6 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.4
Week 2 chaos superfecta
We have another one! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We scored upsets in 10 of 14 weeks last season, and thanks to Florida State’s upset of Bama, we’re 1-for-1 in 2025.
Who are we taking down this week? Someone good! SP+ says there’s only about a 51% chance that No. 13 Florida (90% over USF), No. 8 Clemson (89% over Troy), No. 20 Ole Miss (84% over Kentucky) and Louisville (76% over JMU) all win. Surely Ole Miss wouldn’t lose to Kentucky again, right?
Week 2 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northern Illinois Huskies at Maryland Terrapins (7:30, BTN). Freshman quarterback Malik Washington grew beautifully into his first start last week, and he’s at least 17 places ahead of Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik in QBR. But can he overcome the Curse of Playing Northern Illinois in Week 2? Notre Dame couldn’t last year, after all.
Current line: Terps -18.5 | SP+ projection: Terps by 16.0 | FPI projection: Terps by 13.0
Early Saturday
Baylor Bears at No. 17 SMU Mustangs (noon, The CW). Against Auburn, Baylor proved it has some major speed this season. But the Bears got pushed around early and made too many mistakes. SMU, meanwhile, took a while to find an offensive rhythm against East Texas A&M and fell well short of projections. Which team will head into Week 3 having disappointed twice in a row?
Current line: SMU -3 | SP+ projection: SMU by 9.9 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.5
Virginia Cavaliers at NC State Wolfpack (noon, ESPN2). NC State’s CJ Bailey looked awfully good in the Wolfpack’s 24-17 win over forever-upset-minded ECU, but the UVA defense absolutely wrecked shop against Coastal Carolina. Are the Cavaliers better than we thought? Can State fend off an early upset attempt?
Current line: Pack -2.5 | SP+ projection: Pack by 2.0 | FPI projection: UVA by 0.4
UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange (noon, ESPN+). Syracuse alternated between wobbly and exciting in last week’s loss to Tennessee, but the Orange will need to get their feet underneath them quickly because UConn made loads of big plays last week — yes, against Central Connecticut, but still — and is good enough to make this one a near-tossup.
Current line: Cuse -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cuse by 1.8 | FPI projection: Cuse by 4.3
Saturday afternoon
No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (3:30, ABC). New Ole Miss starter Austin Simmons threw two early picks against Georgia State last week but eventually got rolling. He’ll likely find far more resistance against a Kentucky defense that held Toledo to 4.8 yards per play, but that will matter only if the Wildcats can score. They averaged a woeful 4.6 yards per play with two turnovers, and I’m pretty sure Ole Miss’ defense is better than Toledo’s.
Current line: Rebels -10.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.1 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 11.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (3:30, CBS). Oklahoma State QB Hauss Hejny looked awesome in his first start but got hurt. Now Zane Flores will make his first start on the road against a team that looked about as good as anyone last week. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was accurate against Montana State, a committee of Ducks running backs romped, and the team’s defense erased what will likely be one of the FCS’ best offenses. I’m not sure what resistance OSU can come up with here.
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 21.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 20.8
Troy Trojans at No. 8 Clemson Tigers (3:30, ACCN). An interesting stats-versus-sportsbooks contrast here. ESPN BET says Clemson will beat Troy by nearly five touchdowns, but neither SP+ nor FPI trust the Tigers that much. Of course, Troy needed a late charge to beat Nicholls State last week, so maybe the numbers should stand down a bit.
Current line: Clemson -33.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 19.5 | FPI projection: Clemson by 19.4
West Virginia Mountaineers at Ohio Bobcats (4, ESPNU). Ohio racked up 440 yards at 7.1 yards per play against a Rutgers defense that we expected to be better than West Virginia’s. West Virginia, meanwhile, started slowly against Robert Morris but caught fire and finished with 625 yards. Points have been hard to come by overall this season, but this one has some track meet potential.
Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WVU by 6.9 | FPI projection: WVU by 0.9
Saturday evening
Grambling’s World Famed Tiger Marching Band vs. Ohio State’s Best Damn Band in the Land (approximately 5, BTN). This has to be one of the first times a football game was scheduled to set up a halftime show. But make no mistake: The halftime show, pitting two of probably the five or 10 best marching bands in the country, will be unreal. This might be the single coolest 20 minutes of the Saturday slate.
SP+ projection: WFTMB -2 (just kidding)
Vanderbilt Commodores at Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30, ACCN). Virginia Tech’s defense showed up in Atlanta against South Carolina last week. The offense, not so much. Kyron Drones was 15-of-35 with two INTs and two sacks, and his receiving corps was plagued by drops. Vandy’s defense erased Charleston Southern, but this is obviously the Commodores’ real test.
Current line: Tech -1.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 3.8 | FPI projection: VT by 3.3
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs (7:30, ESPN2). MSU was sloppy early against Southern Miss last week, and Arizona State woke up only marginally against Northern Arizona. Both won, obviously, but now we get to find out how each will really start the season. Is ASU’s Sam Leavitt really going to throw only to Jordyn Tyson again (12 catches, 141 yards last week)? Can MSU run well enough to keep pressure off of Blake Shapen?
Current line: ASU -6.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 9.7 | FPI projection: ASU by 1.0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Toledo Rockets (7, ESPN+). I almost included this one in the G5 Résumés section above. Points might be at a premium this season, but WKU has scored 96 of them in two easy wins while Toledo’s defense looked the part, at least, against Kentucky. The winner of this one will be in the G5’s CFP hunt — especially if it’s unbeaten WKU.
Current line: Toledo -6.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 2.3 | FPI projection: Toledo by 3.4
Houston Cougars at Rice Owls (7, ESPN+). What would a column of mine be without a reference to Scott Abell’s option offense? Granted, defense played a huge part in Rice’s first-week upset of Louisiana, but now the Owls get a shot at a power-conference rival, a Houston team that shut Stephen F. Austin down last week but never really got rolling offensively. Rice can’t start 2-0, can it?
Current line: Houston -12.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 13.9 | FPI projection: Houston by 4.9
Army Black Knights at Kansas State Wildcats (7, ESPN). One of these teams could be in crisis Sunday morning. Both came into 2025 with major expectations, but Army suffered a season-opening upset loss to Tarleton State, and Kansas State came within about a minute of falling to 0-2 last weekend before rallying to beat North Dakota. Stumbles happen, and it’s early, but the loser of this one will be in a hole.
Current line: K-State -17.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 12.3 | FPI projection: K-State by 19.2
Boston College Eagles at Michigan State Spartans (7:30, NBC). Boston College overachieved against SP+ projections by a couple of touchdowns in a 66-10 win over Fordham, while Michigan State underachieved slightly in a 23-6 win over Western Michigan. Both teams could have salty defenses, and both teams have either inexperienced (BC’s Dylan Lonergan) or sack-prone QBs (MSU’s Aidan Chiles). MSU is favored at home, but this seems like a huge statement opportunity for BC.
Current line: MSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: BC by 1.5 | FPI projection: BC by 0.6
UL Monroe Warhawks at No. 21 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45, SECN). I’m just saying, you always need to check in on ULM-Bama. Just in case.
Current line: Bama -36.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 31.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 26.6
Late Saturday
Stanford Cardinal at BYU Cougars (10:15, ESPN). Portland State is clearly not good, but BYU outgained the Vikings 606-51. Six-hundred-six to 51. Stanford, meanwhile, lost to Hawai’i in Week 0. I’m honestly not sure how this line is under three touchdowns.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 24.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 16.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
D-III: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union (1 p.m., FloFootball). Now the party’s complete. The Division III season kicks off Saturday, and Mount Union, a 12-time national champion battling a seven-year title drought, gets going against some high-level competition. Wheaton missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018 last season, but the Thunder still went 9-2 and are projected ninth in D-III SP+ to start the season. Can Geoff Dart’s Purple Raiders handle their business at home as we’ve come to expect?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 8.1
NAIA: No. 4 Benedictine at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., local streaming). I told you to watch Benedictine’s top-five showdown with Morningside last week, and the Ravens won in a thriller. How are they following that up? With another top-five showdown! We’re going to watch this one too! Grand View won its second national title last fall and starts this season atop the polls. Will the Vikings stay there after Saturday?
SP+ projection: Grand View by 9.9
FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana State (8 p.m., ESPN+). After handily disposing of Sacramento State 20-3 to start the season, second-ranked South Dakota State heads west to face a Montana State team that was treated very unkindly last weekend by Oregon. Will the Bobcats, national runners-up twice in the past four seasons, bounce back and give the Jackrabbits a fight?
SP+ projection: SDSU by 1.6
With Week 1 in the books, the college football season shifts into full gear as contenders begin to separate from pretenders. September is often when momentum is built, hype meets reality, and early missteps can linger all season. From blue-blood clashes such as Michigan–Oklahoma to rivalry battles in Ames, Iowa, and Columbia, Missouri, Week 2 brings both tradition and intrigue. Quarterbacks are already defining the season’s storylines, and new coordinators and transfers continue to shape the national conversation.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups, quarterbacks and the top quotes going into Week 2. — Kyle Bonagura
Jump to:
Michigan-Oklahoma
Quarterbacks to watch | Rivalry matchups
Quotes of the week
What does each quarterback need to do to win?
Bryce Underwood: Underwood had a scintillating debut in Michigan’s victory over New Mexico. The true freshman completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards — more passing yards than any Michigan quarterback had in any game last season. It’s already clear that Underwood’s arm talent alone will elevate the Wolverines’ passing attack. But what was most impressive was his poise — he didn’t look like a freshman playing in his first game. That poise will be put to the test at Oklahoma. The Sooners have been tough defensively under Brent Venables, especially at home. But if Underwood can remain poised, make a few plays with his feet and continue delivering accurate throws in his first road start, the Wolverines will have a chance to pull off the upset — and send a message that with Underwood, they’re ready to contend again for a playoff spot. — Jake Trotter
John Mateer: Mateer and new Oklahoma offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle brought their Washington State offense to Norman, and it’s no surprise they’re already executing it at a high level. Mateer had a career-high 30 completions for 392 yards in his Sooners debut against FCS Illinois State. His accuracy (81%) and efficiency (9.95 yards per dropback) were on point, and he flashed his rushing ability on a 7-yard touchdown. The Sooners were able to score on only five of 10 drives in a 35-3 win, and they’ll need more from their run game after their backs combined for 67 rushing yards on 24 carries with touted Cal transfer Jaydn Ott playing only three snaps. Michigan’s defense has more talent than any Mateer has faced over 13 career starts, but he and Arbuckle will have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. — Max Olson
Five quarterbacks to watch in Week 2
Duke‘s Darian Mensah: In the opener against Elon, Mensah showed off exactly why Manny Diaz was so eager to bring him in from Tulane this offseason. Mensah threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. This week, Duke hosts Illinois, and that will be a far bigger test for the Blue Devils. Illinois’ run defense is exceptional, so a lot will be put on Mensah’s shoulders to carry the Duke attack. It’s a big ask. This will be Mensah’s third career start against a Power 4 opponent. He lost each of his previous two against Kansas State and Oklahoma in 2024.
South Florida‘s Byrum Brown: Plenty of attention will be given to the QB on the opposite sideline for USF’s showdown against Florida in Week 2, but DJ Lagway won’t be the only show in town. Brown has 21 starts under his belt, and he won’t be rattled by playing in The Swamp. He’s also coming off a decisive win over Boise State in the opener, accounting for 253 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Brown is a dual threat with 19 career rushing touchdowns, and he’s more than capable of upstaging Lagway and leading USF to an in-state upset.
Michigan’s Bryce Underwood: Going toe-to-toe with Mateer and Oklahoma means Michigan will need to put up some points — something the Wolverines struggled to do last season. The 2024 campaign was scuttled almost entirely by bad QB play, but Underwood — a highly talented true freshman — appears to be a savior. In his debut against New Mexico last week, he completed 68% of his throws for 251 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over. It wasn’t a gaudy stat line, but it’s the first time a Michigan QB has posted those numbers in a game since Week 8 of 2023. Underwood will need to deliver even more against the Sooners, whose offense figures to be among the most explosive in the country.
Texas‘ Arch Manning: No, we’re not concerned about Manning struggling against San José State. Texas should win this one easily. But the reaction after the Longhorns’ offense was stymied against Ohio State in Week 1 was so emphatic, that it would still be good news — and a welcome relief to Horns fans — if Manning can use the opportunity against a Group of 5 opponent to reset a bit. It is still only the fourth college start for Manning, but this should be his biggest opportunity for some stat padding. In the big picture, he remains one of the most intriguing QB prospects in the country — and Week 2 is a good chance to remind fans of why that is.
Iowa‘s Mark Gronowski: This was supposed to be the year the Hawkeyes finally had a QB who could elevate the offense beyond the traditional “punting is winning” formula. When Kirk Ferentz landed Gronowski via the portal from South Dakota State, he seemed to fit the bill as both a hard-nosed pocket passer in the typical Iowa mold, but also one with sufficient upside to actually make the Hawkeyes a tad more dynamic. But in Week 1 against FCS Albany, he didn’t exactly light it up. Gronowski finished just 8-of-15 passing for 44 yards. No, he didn’t need to do more than that to secure an easy win, but the formula changes a good deal in Week 2 for the Cy-Hawk game against Iowa State. Dating to 2018, Iowa’s starting QBs have combined for a 41.3 Total QBR, 53% completions, one touchdown and four picks in six games vs. Iowa State. — David Hale
Early rivalry matchups
Iowa at Iowa State: No. 16 Iowa State and Iowa renew their rivalry Saturday in Ames in the 72nd edition of the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series.
The Cyclones, fresh off an 11-win season and a Pop-Tarts Bowl victory, enter with momentum behind quarterback Rocco Becht, who has thrown a touchdown pass in 20 straight games and is coming off an incredible performance against FCS South Dakota, in which he completed 19 of 20 passes. Kicker Kyle Konrardy also entered the record book with the longest field goal in school history — a 63-yard boot to close the first half.
Iowa, meanwhile, cruised through its opener against FCS Albany 34-7, giving up only 177 yards of total offense. Quarterback Mark Gronowski — who started 54 games at South Dakota State before arriving in the offseason — eased into his first game for the Hawkeyes, completing 8 of 15 passes for just 44 yards.
Iowa State has won two of the past three against Iowa but has dropped its past six games in the series in Ames. — Bonagura
Kansas at Missouri: First and foremost, it’s the renewal of a bitter rivalry that has been dormant since the Tigers left the Big 12 for the SEC after the 2011 season. This matchup isn’t the “Iron Bowl” or “The Game,” but college football is better when Kansas and Missouri are playing each other. The Tigers enter with a 56-55-9 advantage in the all-time series as winners in five of the past six matchups between the schools from 2006 to 2011.
As for Saturday, the Jayhawks come to Columbia with a stout veteran defensive line unit led by defensive end Dean Miller and tackles Tommy Dunn Jr. and D.J. Withers. How well can that group limit Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy and attack Missouri’s renovated offensive line will define the 120th edition of the Border War.
It also should be an occasion for the quarterbacks. Sixth-year Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels, who threw three touchdowns in Kansas’ opener against Fresno State, has the chance to claim his latest signature victory in Week 2. Meanwhile, Penn State transfer Beau Pribula meets his first Power 4 opponent since joining the Tigers, facing an unproven Kansas secondary in his second start with Missouri after going 23-of-28 with 283 yards and four total touchdowns in his debut against Central Arkansas last week. — Eli Lederman
Quotes of the week
“I thought we dominated them in the second half, so he’s really a really good grader for giving himself a 58, or he’s a really hard grader on us,” LSU coach Brian Kelly on Dabo Swinney’s evaluation of the Tigers’ 17-10 win over Clemson. “Or he didn’t see the second half, which, that might be the case. He might not have wanted to see the second half.”
“They outplayed us, outcoached us, and they were just better than we were tonight,” North Carolina coach Bill Belichick said after the Tar Heels’ 48-14 loss to TCU on Monday night. “That’s all there was to it. They did a lot more things right than we did.”
“It means a lot to a lot of people,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said this week on what he wants his players to understand about the significance of the Border War rivalry with Kansas. “It’s a privilege to wear the Mizzou on your chest. And when you wear Mizzou, you represent 6 million people in this state. And that’s just current. Past and present, [too]. I think we’re Team 136, there are some people that felt like there’s just a lot of importance and this is our chance to write our part of the story. We’re going to continue to play this game. So this is just one part of the story, but it’s an important part. You get a chance to be a part of it.”
“I could walk through the jersey. You could open it up, and at 6-4, 280 pounds, I could walk right through it and not touch one side of the thing,” Georgia Tech coach Brent Key said of the oversized jersey Yellow Jackets punt returner Eric Rivers threw on in the first quarter against Colorado in Week 1. “… You will not see that jersey ever again.”
With Oklahoma State redshirt freshman quarterback Zane Flores preparing for his first career start at No. 6 Oregon, Cowboys coach Mike Gundy recalled one of his earliest starts at Nebraska in the fall of 1986: “It was 15 degrees and sleeting … we came out of the locker room and — you know the movie ‘A Christmas Story’ where the kid goes down like this? — that’s how I came out,'” Gundy said before lifting his shirt for reporters. “And when we broke the huddle, Nebraska’s defensive line had their shirts tied up like this. And I thought, ‘This is not good.'”
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