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Labour are on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is now averaging just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest-ever majorities five months ago.

Analysis of nearly 1,000 polls across 75 years found Labour are now 1% behind their previous end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and leadership challenges.

The only other years to rival their current low were 1981, when the new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of power in 2009, when the party was reeling from the recession and expenses scandal.

Labour are still leading the polls, but are now just 0.5% ahead of the Conservatives – well down on their 19% lead in January.

Kemi Badenoch‘s party has been practically stagnant for some time. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.

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Reform UK is several points behind on 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Greens on 7.7%.

The analysis for Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The Labour Party’s current standing is a far cry from the 44% share it enjoyed in January.

Its 17.6% fall since then is the biggest calendar-year collapse in support ever recorded in UK-wide polls.

Only twice has a bigger drop happened more suddenly.

The first was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Party in 2019, which surged to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons deadlock over negotiations.

Within six months, its support was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.

Bigger still was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave during the May election campaign evaporated weeks after becoming the unpopular coalition government’s junior partner.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

But history suggests all is not yet lost for Labour.

When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded more than 10% the following year.

And Margaret Thatcher recovered from a similar low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – though she was buoyed by the Falklands War.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The year’s biggest winner by far is Reform UK.

Our analysis shows its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest jump seen in a calendar year in peacetime.

But with a general election still four years away, its challenge is holding on to that momentum.

No third party experiencing such a surge since the war has maintained its support beyond two years.

On the final Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.

Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am, and follow along live on the Politics Hub.

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President Bush determined to ‘rid world of evil-doer Saddam Hussein’, new records reveal

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President Bush determined to 'rid world of evil-doer Saddam Hussein', new records reveal

It would have been “politically impossible” to stop President Bush from invading Iraq, as he believed he was on a “crusade against evil”, new records show.

Newly declassified UK government files show Sir Tony Blair was warned by his US ambassador that George W Bush was determined to overthrow dictator Saddam Hussein, in the months before the invasion of Iraq.

Sir Tony, who was prime minister at the time, was trying to encourage the US president to use diplomatic means to change the situation in the Middle Eastern country, and flew to Camp David in January 2003 to make the case, just two months before the joint US-UK invasion.

The UK government was also hoping the United Nations Security Council would agree a new resolution specifically authorising the use of military force against Iraq.

But the files, made public for the first time, show that Sir Tony’s ambassador, Sir Christopher Meyer, warned him it would be “politically impossible” to sway Mr Bush away from an invasion unless Hussein surrendered.

 File photo dated 21/11/2003 of US President George Bush stood alongside Prime Minister Tony Blair
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Prime Minister Tony Blair with US President George W Bush in 2003

The documents, released by the National Archives at Kew in west London, show Sir Christopher also wrote that Mr Bush believed himself to be on “a crusade against evil to be undertaken by God’s chosen people”.

Sir Tony’s foreign policy adviser, Sir David Manning, told the PM that when he met Mr Bush, he should make the point that a new diplomatic resolution was “politically essential for the UK, and almost certainly legally essential as well”.

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But the White House was becoming increasingly impatient at the unwillingness of France and Russia – both of whom held a veto – to agree a resolution so long as UN inspectors were unable to find any evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, the supposed justification for war.

Sir Christopher warned Sir Tony shortly before his visit to see Mr Bush in January 2003 that options for a peaceful solution in Iraq had effectively run out.

(from L-R) Tony Blair, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, George Bush and Portuguese Prime Minister Manuel Durao Barroso - 16/03/03
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Tony Blair speaking at a press conference following talks over Iraq in March 2003, watched on by George Bush and the leaders of Spain and Portugal

He wrote: “It is politically impossible for Bush to back down from going to war in Iraq this spring, absent Saddam’s surrender or disappearance from the scene.

“If Bush had any room for manoeuvre beforehand this was closed off by his State of the Union speech.

“In the high-flown prose to which Bush is drawn on these set-piece occasions, he said in effect that destroying Saddam is a crusade against evil to be undertaken by God’s chosen people.”

File photo of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, December 31, 2001. REUTERS/Faleh Kheiber SJS/CMC
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Saddam Hussein in 2001 – he was captured by US soldiers in December 2013

In a cable sent the previous month, Sir Christopher said that much of the impulse for deposing Hussein was coming from the president, a born-again Christian, who was scornful of what he saw as the “self-serving” reservations of the Europeans.

“His view of the world is Manichean. He sees his mission as ridding it of evil-doers. He believes American values should be universal values,” Sir Christopher stated.

“He is strongly allergic to Europeans collectively. Anyone who has sat round a dinner table with low-church Southerners will find these sentiments instantly recognisable.”

In the end, Sir Tony and Mr Bush abandoned efforts to get a new Security Council resolution, blaming French President Jacques Chirac for refusing, and launched the invasion of Iraq anyway.

Lobbying from Mandelson and anger at the French

Among the new files, there are also a number of other revelations. These include:

  • Current UK ambassador to the US, Sir Peter Mandelson, was so desperate to get back into government following his second resignation from Sir Tony’s government that he asked Lord Birt, a policy adviser to Downing Street, to write to the prime minister in 2003, asking for him to receive a role – four months before Sir Peter was appointed as the UK’s next European commissioner
  • Sir Tony was furious at French president Jacques Chirac’s efforts to undermine pressure being put on Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe by the UK in 2003, over growing violence caused by a policy of driving the remaining white farmers from their lands in the African nation
  • The prime minister also insisted on changing the rules around which parties can lay wreaths at the Cenotaph on Remembrance Sunday in a bid to protect the Northern Irish peace process in 2004, despite warning this could create an “adverse reaction” from the SNP and Plaid Cymru

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People smugglers to have assets frozen and be banned from UK

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People smugglers to have assets frozen and be banned from UK

People smugglers face having their assets frozen and being banned from entering the UK, the foreign secretary has announced.

David Lammy said new powers under the Sanctions Act will allow the UK to freeze the assets of anyone complicit in smuggling illegal migrants into the country.

They can also be banned from travelling to the UK.

The first wave of sanctions on smuggling gangs and their enablers will be imposed on Wednesday.

Mr Lammy said it is the “world’s first sanctions regime” targeted at smuggling gangs.

Gang leaders, small boat suppliers, people making and selling fake passports and middlemen facilitating payments by migrants through hawala networks (informal systems for transferring money) will all be targeted this week.

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They will be publicly named on a sanctions list, making it illegal for the UK financial system to engage with them.

By using the Sanctions Act, the government said it can target the smuggling gangs wherever they are in the world, including where law enforcement and criminal justice approaches cannot reach.

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How people smugglers dodge French police

Labour’s manifesto promised to “smash the gangs”, but the first half of 2025 has seen a record number of small boat crossings, with about 20,000 from January to June – the highest ever in that period, and 48% more than the first half of 2024.

Earlier this month, the UK and France announced a pilot scheme under which migrants arriving in the UK illegally from France will be returned and a legitimate asylum seeker will be able to come to the UK. They did not say how many would be returned each week, but the suggestion was 50.

People thought to be migrants wade through the sea to board a small boat leaving the beach at Gravelines, France, in an attempt to reach the
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Migrants wading through the sea in France to board a small boat destined for the UK. Pic: PA

On the latest sanctions, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “For too long, criminal gangs have been lining their corrupt pockets and preying on the hopes of vulnerable people with impunity as they drive irregular migration to the UK. We will not accept this status quo.

“It is our moral duty and a key part of our Plan for Change to do all we can to smash these gangs and secure Britain’s borders.

“That’s why the UK has created the world’s first sanctions regime targeted at gangs involved in people smuggling and driving irregular migration, as well as their enablers.

“From tomorrow, those involved will face having their assets frozen, being shut off from the UK financial system and banned from travelling to the UK.”

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the sanctions send a “clear message that there is no hiding place for those who exploit vulnerable people and put lives at risk for profit”.

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Crypto ATMs seized in the UK amid growing scrutiny of kiosk-based exchanges

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Crypto ATMs seized in the UK amid growing scrutiny of kiosk-based exchanges

Crypto ATMs seized in the UK amid growing scrutiny of kiosk-based exchanges

Crypto ATM arrests in London come as US states like Wisconsin move to limit daily transactions and mandate fraud warnings.

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