Connect with us

Published

on

Labour are on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is now averaging just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest-ever majorities five months ago.

Analysis of nearly 1,000 polls across 75 years found Labour are now 1% behind their previous end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and leadership challenges.

The only other years to rival their current low were 1981, when the new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of power in 2009, when the party was reeling from the recession and expenses scandal.

Labour are still leading the polls, but are now just 0.5% ahead of the Conservatives – well down on their 19% lead in January.

Kemi Badenoch‘s party has been practically stagnant for some time. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.

More on Labour

Reform UK is several points behind on 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Greens on 7.7%.

The analysis for Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The Labour Party’s current standing is a far cry from the 44% share it enjoyed in January.

Its 17.6% fall since then is the biggest calendar-year collapse in support ever recorded in UK-wide polls.

Only twice has a bigger drop happened more suddenly.

The first was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Party in 2019, which surged to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons deadlock over negotiations.

Within six months, its support was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.

Bigger still was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave during the May election campaign evaporated weeks after becoming the unpopular coalition government’s junior partner.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

But history suggests all is not yet lost for Labour.

When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded more than 10% the following year.

And Margaret Thatcher recovered from a similar low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – though she was buoyed by the Falklands War.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The year’s biggest winner by far is Reform UK.

Our analysis shows its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest jump seen in a calendar year in peacetime.

But with a general election still four years away, its challenge is holding on to that momentum.

No third party experiencing such a surge since the war has maintained its support beyond two years.

On the final Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.

Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am, and follow along live on the Politics Hub.

Continue Reading

Politics

FBOT registry won’t bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney

Published

on

By

<div>FBOT registry won't bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney</div>

<div>FBOT registry won't bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney</div>

The Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) framework is designed for the legacy financial system and is a poor fit for cryptocurrency exchanges.

Continue Reading

Politics

‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

Published

on

By

‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

A crypto developer says Trump-linked crypto project WLFI froze his tokens and refused to unlock them, calling it “the new age mafia.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Farage confirms he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to Taliban in Afghanistan

Published

on

By

Farage confirms he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to Taliban in Afghanistan

Nigel Farage has confirmed he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to the Taliban in Afghanistan if he becomes prime minister.

The Reform UK leader’s position on the topic has not been clear, with him previously saying he would send women back to the fundamentalist regime that took over after western militaries withdrew, before now saying he would.

Mr Farage was speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby at the Reform UK party conference in Birmingham.

Politics live: Govt responds to Farage wanting early election

When asked if he would “detain” women and children and “send them back”, the Clacton MP said “yes”.

Challenged on when he said in August that he was not “discussing” women and children, Mr Farage claimed this was a reference to his desire to seeing men detained on arrival in the UK.

At the time he said he was “very, very clear” on the “deportation of illegal immigrants”, adding: “We are not even discussing women and children at this stage – there are so many illegal males in Britain, and the news reports that said that after my conference yesterday were wrong”

More on Migrant Crossings

Speaking today, Mr Farage claimed that the UK has a “duty of care” if a four-year-old arrives in a dinghy, for example – but not so for women and men.

“For clarity, those that cross the English Channel will be detained and deported, men and women,” Mr Farage went on.

“Children, we’ll have to think about.”

The Reform leader also rowed back on his pledge to stop all boats within two weeks if he is elected prime minister.

Speaking to the conference yesterday, Mr Farage said: “You cannot come here illegally and stay – we will stop the boats within two weeks of winning government.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Watch Farage face questions on his tax affairs

But speaking to Beth Rigby today, he changed tack – saying “the passing of legislation” would be required.

He said the boats would then be stopped within two weeks, or sooner.

In the interview with Rigby, Mr Farage tried to claim he did not say he would end the boats within two weeks of “winning government”.

But the video of his speech, as well as the transcript released by Reform UK, clearly show him saying: “We will stop the boats within two weeks of winning government.”

When asked why he wouldn’t be able to stop the boats within two weeks of winning government, Mr Farage said it was impossible and “no one” can prevent them crossing the Channel.

The Reform UK leader said the law he wants to introduce will be called the Illegal Migration Act once it is passed by parliament.

He confirmed his agenda includes leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, shutting down asylum hotels and housing people at RAF bases instead, as well as deporting Channel migrants.

Mr Farage also claimed that deportation flights would also begin within two weeks of the law changing, and this combination of factors would stop people from wanting to travel from France.

This strategy all depends on Reform UK winning the next general election – which Labour does not have to call until 2029.

However, Mr Farage says he believes the government will collapse in 2027 due to economic pressure and other factors.

Reform are currently well clear of Labour and the Conservatives in the polling, and are targeting next year’s Welsh, Scottish and English local election to try and win more power in councils and national assemblies.

Continue Reading

Trending