The UK economy is “headed for the worst of all worlds” as businesses expect activity to fall at the start of next year, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).
The industry group’s growth indicator survey found that private sector firms expect to cut down on hiring, reduce output and for prices to rise in the first three months of 2025.
One of the main reasons given by businesses for the poor outlook was Chancellor Rachel Reeves‘ decision to raise employers’ national insurance contributions (NIC) – which is expected to raise around £25bn a year.
While the chancellor accepted the budget decision will not be “easy” for businesses, she said earlier this month the government “made a commitment during the general election… that we wouldn’t increase taxes on working people”.
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UK economy declined in October
Alpesh Paleja, the CBI’s interim deputy chief economist, said: “There is little festive cheer in our latest surveys, which suggest that the economy is headed for the worst of all worlds – firms expect to reduce both output and hiring, and price growth expectations are getting firmer.
“Businesses continue to cite the impact of measures announced in the budget – particularly the rise in employer NICs – exacerbating an already tepid demand environment.”
He added that firms are looking for Labour “to boost confidence and to give them a reason to invest” in 2025, “whether that’s long overdue moves to reform the apprenticeship levy, supporting the health of the workforce through increased occupational health incentives or a reform of business rates”.
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The CBI’s poll, based on responses of 899 companies between 25 November and 12 December, also found expectations for economic growth were at their weakest since November 2022, in the aftermath of Liz Truss’s resignation as prime minister.
Lucy Powell, leader of the House of Commons, told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips the ONS figures were “disappointing” and said that “of course we want to see these things (economic growth) happening faster”.
The Labour MP for Manchester Central said, however: “This is a bit like turning round some huge oil tanker…
“We take a fundamental view here about fixing the foundations, which is about trying to bring some economic stability, which means making sure that the budget adds up, which is something that we didn’t inherit.
“We inherited this big black hole in the public finances which we had to put right.”
Ms Powell then defended raising employers’ NICs, acknowledging while “it was a difficult decision,” it was made “to get money into the front line” of the NHS and other services.
Responding to the CBI’s survey, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said: “Since taking office, the chancellor has made this country a hostile climate for aspiration, for investment and for growth.”
The Conservative MP added: “Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising spree and trash-talking her economic inheritance are literally killing businesses and jobs.
“If there is a recession – and based on these CBI expectations that seems increasingly likely – it will be one made in Downing Street. Labour needs to urgently change course before the damage they are doing becomes even greater.”
As a ban on the sale of disposable vapes comes into force on Sunday, a doctor who set up the first-ever clinic to help children stop vaping has said she has seen patients so addicted they couldn’t sleep through the night without them.
Professor Rachel Isba established the clinic at Alder Hey Hospital in Liverpool in January and has now seen several patients as young as 11 years old who are nicotine dependent.
“Some of the young people vape before they get out of bed. They are sleeping with them under their pillow,” she told Sky News.
Image: Professor Rachel Isba set up the first-ever stop vaping clinic for children
“I’m hearing stories of some children waking up at three o’clock in the morning, thinking they can’t sleep, thinking the vape will help them get back to sleep. Whereas, actually, that’s the complete opposite of how nicotine works.”
Ms Isba said most of her patients use disposable vapes, and while some young people may use the chance to give up, others will simply move to refillable devices after the ban.
“To me, vaping feels quite a lot like the beginning of smoking. I’m not surprised, but disappointed on behalf of the children that history has repeated itself.”
A government ban on single-use vapes comes into effect from Sunday, prohibiting the sale of disposable vaping products across the UK, both online and in-store, whether or not they contain nicotine.
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The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said usage among young vapers remained too high, and the ban would “put an end to their alarming rise in school playgrounds and the avalanche of rubbish flooding the nation’s streets”.
Image: Pic: PA
Circular economy minister Mary Creagh said: “For too long, single-use vapes have blighted our streets as litter and hooked our children on nicotine. That ends today. The government calls time on these nasty devices.”
At nearby Shrewsbury House Youth Club in Everton, a group of 11 and 12-year-old girls said vape addiction is already rife among their friends.
Yasmin Dumbell said: “Every day we go out, and at least someone has a vape. I know people who started in year five. It’s constantly in their hand.”
Image: Yasmin Dumbell says she knows students who started vaping in year five
Her friend Una Quayle said metal detectors were installed at her school to try to stop pupils bringing in vapes, and they are having special assemblies about the dangers of the devices.
But, she said, students “find ways to get around the scanners though – they hide them in their shorts and go to the bathroom and do it”.
Image: Una Quayle says metal detectors installed at her school won’t stop students using vapes
The girls said the ban on disposables is unlikely to make a difference for their friends who are already addicted.
According to Una, they’ll “find a way to get nicotine into their system”.
As well as trying to address the rise in young people vaping, the government hopes banning single-use vapes will reduce some of the environmental impact the devices have.
Although all vapes can be recycled, only a tiny proportion are – with around eight million a week ending up in the bin or on the floor.
Pulled apart by hand
Even those that are recycled have to be pulled apart by hand, as there is currently no way to automate the process.
Scott Butler, executive director of Material Focus, a recycling non-profit group, said vapes were “some of the most environmentally wasteful, damaging, dangerous consumer products ever sold”.
His organisation worries that with new, legal models being designed to almost exactly mimic disposables in look and feel – and being sold for a similar price – people will just keep throwing them away.
He said the behaviour “is too ingrained. The general public have been told ‘vapes are disposable’. They’ve even been marketed this way. But they never were disposable”.
A ban on disposable vapes comes into force on Sunday, with a warning issued about the “life-threatening dangers” of stockpiling.
From Sunday it will be illegal for any business to sell or supply, or have in their possession for sale, all single-use or disposable vapes.
Online nicotine retailer Haypp said 82% of the 369 customers they surveyed plan to bulk purchase the vapes before they are no longer available.
But the vapes contain lithium batteries and could catch fire if not stored correctly.
Image: A sign for customers at a Tesco store in Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire. Pic: PA
While more than a third (34%) of people surveyed by Haypp said they would consider buying an illegal vape after the ban, the overall number of people using disposable products has fallen from 30% to to 24% of vapers, according to Action on Smoking and Health.
Shops selling vapes are required to offer a “take back” service, where they accept vapes and vape parts that customers return for recycling – including single use products.
The Local Government Association (LGA) led the call for a ban two years ago, due to environmental and wellbeing concerns, and is warning people not to stockpile.
Cllr David Fothergill, chairman of the LGA’s Community Wellbeing Board, said: “Failing to store disposable vapes correctly could cost lives, given the significant fire risk they pose.”
How disposable vapes catch fire – or even explode
Figures obtained by the Electric Tobacconist, via Freedom of Information requests, found an increase in vape related fires – from 89 in 2020 to 399 in 2024.
Many disposable vapes use cheap, or even unregulated lithium-ion batteries, to keep the costs down. These batteries often lack proper safety features, like thermal cut offs, making them more prone to overheating and catching fire.
If the battery is damaged, or overheats in any way it can cause thermal runaway – a chain reaction where the battery’s temperature rapidly increases, causing it to overheat uncontrollably.
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Then, once these fires start start, they are very hard to stop. Water alone can make things worse if the battery is still generating heat, so they require specialised fire suppressants to put them out.
Batteries can then re-ignite hours, or even days later, making them a persistent hazard.
Disposable vapes are a hazard for waste and litter collection and cause fires in bin lorries, even though customers have been warned not to throw them away in household waste. They are almost impossible to recycle because they are designed as one unit so the batteries cannot be separated from plastic.
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Some 8.2 million units were thrown away, or recycled incorrectly, every week prior to the ban.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said usage among young vapers remained too high, and the ban would “put an end to their alarming rise in school playgrounds and the avalanche of rubbish flooding the nation’s streets”.
Circular economy minister Mary Creagh said: “For too long, single-use vapes have blighted our streets as litter and hooked our children on nicotine. That ends today.
“The government calls time on these nasty devices.”
‘One in five say they will return to cigarettes’
Separate research by life insurance experts at Confused.com found two in five people (37%) planned to stop vaping when the ban starts.
Nearly one in five (19%) said they would return to cigarettes once the ban comes into force.
The research was based on the answers of 500 UK adults who currently vape.
Vaping and smoking also appears to be on the rise, with Confused.com saying there was a 44% increase in the number of people declaring they smoke or vape on their life insurance policy since 2019.
Russell Brand has pleaded not guilty to rape and sexual assault charges as he appeared in court in London.
The British comedian and actor, from Hambleden in Buckinghamshire, was charged by post last month with one count each of rape, indecent assault and oral rape as well as two counts of sexual assault.
The charges relate to alleged incidents involving four separate women between 1999 and 2005.
The 49-year-old, who has been living in the US, was flanked by two officers as he pleaded not guilty to all the charges at Southwark Crown Court today.
Image: Russell Brand appears at Southwark Crown Court. Pic: Reuters
Brand stood completely still and looked straight ahead as he delivered his pleas.
The comedian, who has consistently denied having non-consensual sex since allegations were first aired two years ago, is due to stand trial in June 2026.