No wonder Sir Keir Starmer is going abroad “for a few days” over New Year. The economic news here in the UK is unrelentingly gloomy.
The prime minister’s spokesman says the latest GDP figures show “the challenge of fixing the economy and public figures is huge and won’t happen overnight”.
Too right. The figures suggest the economy is flatlining and there was no economic growth in July, August and September this year: in other words, since the 4 July election.
But is it the Tories’ fault, as Number 10 claims: the “£22bn black hole” and all that? Or is Rachel Reeves’ budget that’s to blame, as the Tories insist?
Well, the poor growth figures surely can’t be blamed on the budget, because that wasn’t until 30 October, though gloomy predictions may have contributed.
And the “black hole”? Labour ministers constantly blame that for everything from unpopular tax rises to overcrowded prisons, a “broken” NHS and polluted rivers.
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2:01
Why has growth ground to a halt?
But it’s not just the disappointing GDP figures that will have Sir Keir heading for the sun lounger. (And, to be fair, the summer riots did wreck his August holiday plans.)
Cue Tory outrage: shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith slammed “a recession made in Downing Street” and shadow chancellor Mel Stride claimed: “The warning lights are flashing.”
Richard Holden, the shadow paymaster general, even called the chancellor a “modern-day Grinch”, the mean-spirited character who stole a whole town’s Christmas gifts.
The reason: the Tories claim charities will hand over a total of £6.3bn in national insurance payments to HMRC next year, 45% of the near-£14bn donated by the public.
More ominously, Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned after the GDP figures that the chancellor may need to “come back for yet more money” next autumn.
Hold on, though. The chancellor did tell the CBI last month she wouldn’t need to raise taxes again.
Well, yes, but Sir Keir wouldn’t repeat her pledge at Prime Minister’s Questions.
When he appeared before the Liaison Committee of senior MPs last Thursday, the prime minister said: “One of the biggest mistakes, I think, of the last 14 years was the idea that everything could be fixed by Christmas.”
OK. We get the message. Fixing the economy and restoring growth will take time. Even Kemi Badenoch agrees, it seems.
She’s told an interviewer she won’t “rush out” policies and there’s no “quick fix” for the Tories.
“I don’t have as much time as I would like,” she says. Really?
“Four years even, in my view, is not enough time to do what we want to do,” she says, “which is a revolution in terms of how the state works and how our society functions.”
So as we approach the turn of the year, both main parties are asking voters to be patient in 2025. Good luck, as they say, with that.
Bad economic news, bad poll ratings… It was reported at the weekend that Sir Keir “badly needs a holiday” owing to the “relentless strain” of the job, according to friends.
According to the US Department of Justice, Wolf Capital’s co-founder has pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy for luring 2,800 crypto investors into a Ponzi scheme.
Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
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10:32
Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”