Renewable energy is now over 30% of total US utility-scale electrical generating capacity and on track to reach 37% by the end of 2027, according to data in two new end-of-the-year reports just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
In addition, renewables – i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower – provided almost 25% of the US’s electrical generation during the first 10 months of 2024.
Further, October was the 14th month in a row in which solar was the largest source of new capacity, putting it on track to become the US’s second-largest source of capacity, behind natural gas, in three years or sooner.
Renewables were over 90% of new generating capacity through October 2024
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through October 31, 2024), FERC says 41 “units” of solar totaling 1,970 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in October along with three units of wind (174 MW). Combined, they accounted for 99.9% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance – a mere 3 MW.
During the first 10 months of 2024, solar and wind added 21,425 MW and 2,799 MW, respectively. Combined with 213 MW of hydropower and 6 MW of biomass, renewables were almost 90.5% of capacity added. The balance consisted of the 1,100 Vogtle-4 nuclear reactor in Georgia plus 1,456 MW of gas, 11 MW of oil, and 8 MW of “other.”
Solar was 92% of new capacity in October and 79% during the first 10 months of 2024
Solar accounted for 79.3% of all new utility-scale generation placed into service in the first 10 months of 2024. In October alone, solar comprised 91.8% of all new capacity added.
New wind capacity YTD accounted for most of the balance – 10.4% through October.
Solar capacity additions through the end of October were 80.5% higher than during the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, new natural gas capacity was less than one-sixth (15.3%) of that added last year.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity for 14 months straight, from September 2023 to October 2024. For a majority of those months, wind took second place.
Solar + wind are now over 21% of US generating capacity
The combined capacities of just solar and wind now constitute 21.2% of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
However, roughly one-third of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that is not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind closer to a quarter of the country’s total.
Solar’s share of US generating capacity advances it to fourth place
The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity up to 9.5%, further expanding its lead over hydropower (7.7%). Wind is currently at 11.8%. With the inclusion of biomass (1.1%) and geothermal (0.3%), renewables now stand at 30.37% of total US utility-scale generating capacity.
Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.3%), coal (15.5%) and wind – for its share of generating capacity after previously surpassing that of nuclear power (7.9%).
Solar will soon become the second-largest source of US generating capacity
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between October 2024 and September 2027 have risen to 93,803 MW – an amount more than four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23,261 MW), the second fastest-growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (1,316 MW), biomass (164 MW), and geothermal (90 MW). On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast, while coal, oil, and natural gas are projected to shrink by 19,863 MW, 2,244 MW, and 90 MW, respectively.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by October 1, 2027, solar will account for almost one-sixth (15.5%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.0%) or wind (12.6%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.4%) or hydropower (7.3%). The installed capacity of utility-scale solar would thus rise to second place – behind only natural gas (40.3%).
Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables would account for 36.7% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas – with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters (76.5%) of the installed utility-scale renewable energy capacity.
The combined capacities of all renewables, including small-scale solar, seem likely to exceed natural gas within three years
As noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity (i.e., small-scale plus utility-scale) is likely to approach – and very possibly surpass – 300 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 37%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 213,902 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 66,094 MW of new wind, 7,123 MW of new hydropower, 235 MW of new biomass, and 199 MW of new geothermal. In addition, new solar capacity has regularly exceeded FERC’s forecasts. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by early autumn 2027.
Solar is still the fastest-growing source of US electrical generation
In its latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through October 31, 2024), EIA says the combination of utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar increased by 26.3% in the first 10 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 30.8% during the 10-month period (and by 37.8% in October alone), while small-scale solar PV increased by 15.8%, thereby making solar once again the fastest growing source of US electrical generation.
For perspective, between January and October inclusive, natural gas grew by 4.1% and nuclear power by just 0.7% while coal contracted by 4.0%.
Small-scale solar (i.e., systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 2% of US electricity supply in the first 10 months of this year.
Together, utility-scale and small-scale solar were 7.2% of total US electrical generation for the 10-month period and 7.7% in October alone.
Renewables provided 24% of US electrical generation in first 10 months of 2024
Wind and solar provided 17.2% of US electrical generation during the first 10 months of 2024.
Between January and October inclusive, electrical generation by the mix of all renewables (solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) grew by 9.0% year-over-year and provided 24.2% of total production. That share rose to 25.5% in October alone. By comparison, renewables accounted for 22.9% of electrical output in the first 10 months of 2023 and 23.1% in October last year.
The SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong said:
Calendar year 2024 has proven to be a period of remarkable growth by renewables, especially solar.
The question now is whether they will continue that growth in 2025 or will the incoming Trump Administration adversely affect it.
If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Former reality TV contestant Sean Duffy. Photo by Gage Skidmore
America voted for inflation, and it got it today, as republicans running the Department of Transportation bowed to their oil donors and finalized a rule to make your cars less efficient, thus costing America an extra $23 billion in fuel costs.
Sean Duffy, who was appointed as Secretary of Transportation on the back of the transportation “expertise” he showed as a contestant on Road Rules: All Stars, a reality TV travel game show, announced the rule on his first day in office.
His original memo promised a review of all existing fuel economy standards, which require manufacturers to make more efficient vehicles which save you money on fuel.
Specifically, the rule finalized today targets the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard (CAFE), which was just improved last year by President Biden’s DOT, saving American drivers $23 billion in fuel costs by meaning they need to buy less fuel overall. The savings from the Biden rule could have been higher, but were softened from the original proposal due to automaker lobbying.
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Sierra Club’s Transportation for All director, Katherine Garcia, responded to the new Duffy rule’s finalization with a statement:
“The Trump administration’s deregulatory, pro-polluter transportation agenda will only increase costs for Americans. Making our vehicles less fuel efficient hurts families by forcing them to pay more at the pump. This action puts the well-being of our communities at risk in every way imaginable. It will lead to fewer clean vehicle options for consumers, squeeze our wallets, endanger our health, and increase climate pollution. The Sierra Club will continue to push back against this administration’s dangerous clean transportation rollbacks.”
The rule had been filed on Mar 16, and review was completed yesterday. Oddly enough, the rule was filed as “not economically significant,” a categorization for government rules that won’t affect the US economy by more than $100 million – which is less than the $23 billion that the DOT’s own analysis says the new rule will cost Americans.
Both we at Electrek and the Sierra Club had a meeting with the government to point out this inconsistency, but both of our meetings were scheduled for today and were cancelled late last night. There seems to have been no public comment period regarding this change in regulations.
DOT isn’t done raising your fuel costs, it wants to do more
Duffy’s original DOT memo says he wants to target all similar standards, rather than just the improvements made last year – so in fact, our headline likely underestimates how much higher Duffy wants to make your fuel costs.
A recent analysis by Consumer Reports shows that fuel economy standards are enormously popular with Americans, and that maintaining the current standards could result in lifetime savings of $6,000 per vehicle, compared to current costs, by 2029. And that fuel economy standards implemented since 2001 have already saved $9,000 per vehicle. Now, imagine the net effect of removing all of those standards, which Duffy has directed the DOT to examine doing.
As we’ve already seen to be the case often with Trump’s allies, the DOT memo lied about its intentions. Just like EPA head Lee Zeldin, who said he wants to make the air cleaner by making it dirtier, Duffy, says he wants to make fuel costs lower by making them higher. The memo attempts to argue that your car will be cheaper if it has lower fuel economy, even though it wont, because buying more fuel will mean you spend more on fuel, not less.
Unequivocally, over here in the real world, dirtier air is actually dirtier, and higher fuel costs are actually higher.
The result of this increased fuel usage also inevitably means more reliance on foreign sources of energy. The more oil America uses, the more it will have to import from elsewhere. Other countries looking to exercise power over the US could certainly choose to raise prices as they recognize that the US has just become more reliant on them.
And, as we know from the most basic understanding of economics, adding more demand means prices will go up, not down. Reducing demand for a product in fact forces prices down, and EVs are already displacing oil demand which depresses oil prices.
Meanwhile, Biden’s higher fuel economy standards would mean that automakers need to provide a higher mix of EVs, which inherently get all of their energy to run not just domestically, but regionally as well. Most electricity generation happens regionally or locally based on what resources are available in your area, so when you charge a car, you’re typically supporting jobs at your local power plant, rather than in some overseas oil country.
But these are just attempts to follow-through on the dirty air, inflation causing promises that the republicans made during the campaign. Mr. Trump signaled he intended to raise your fuel costs (and costs of everything else) during the 2024 US Presidential campaign, when he asked oil executives for $1 billion in bribes in return for killing off more efficient vehicles.
However, whiplash changes in regulatory regimes like this are typically seen as bad for business. Above all, businesses desire regulatory certainty so they can plan products into the future, and there are few businesses with longer planning timelines than automakers.
This is why automakers want the EPA to retain Biden’s emissions rules, because they’re already planning new models for the EV transition. They went through this once before, in the chaos of 2017-2021, where they originally asked for rollbacks but then realized their mistake, and now still complain about the broken regulatory regime caused by the last time a former reality TV host squatted in the White House.
Further, if American manufacturing turns away from the EV transition, or continues to make tepid movement towards it, this will only hand more of a manufacturing lead to China, meaning more decline of American manufacturing (compared to the huge manufacturing boom seen under President Biden).
But all of these harms will happen to real people. This isn’t reality television, where the intent is to make up drama for views. This is actual harm that’s actually going to be done to Americans, who are having a rough time as the global economy continues to grapple with the long-term disruptions resulting from a pandemic that was exacerbated by the same reality TV host, and of course the ever-present worsening climate change.
And so, Mr. Trump is now trying to follow through on his campaign promises – which, in so many ways, will only make your life costlier, more unhealthy, less stable, and less secure from foreign influence. This is what 49% of America voted for.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla being in the crosshairs of the Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in Europe, a new Hyundai electric minivan, and more.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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Kia believes hatchbacks will make a comeback, starting with the EV4 later this year. The EV4 is Kia’s first electric hatch, and it’s expected to see big demand.
Kia aims to bring back hatchbacks with the new EV4
During its EV Day event earlier this year, Kia showcased four EV4 models, two sedans and two hatchbacks, all of which are fully electric.
The EV4 is part of Kia’s new entry-level EV lineup, which includes other models, including the EV3, EV5, and the upcoming EV2.
Following the launch of the EV4 sedan in Korea in March, Kia is preparing to introduce the hatchback version in Europe. The EV4 will kick off a series of new hatchbacks, which Kia believes could be its secret weapon as an electric alternative to the Volkswagen Golf and other popular models.
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Kia’s executive vice president, Ted Lee, believes there is still “big volume” for hatchbacks in Europe that’s up for grabs. During a recent interview with Autocar, Lee confirmed Kia would launch a new series of hatchbacks.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia)
The EV4 is set to kick things off later this year. Unlike the sedan, Kia will build the EV4 hatch in Europe. It will be Kia’s first European-built EV at its plant in Slovakia. The sedan variant will be imported from South Korea.
Kia will launch the EV4 hatch in the UK in October. After that, the new K4 will join the series, which will also arrive in hatchback form. The K4, both hatch and sedan variants, will be imported from Kia’s plant in Mexico.
Kia EV4 hatchback GT-Line (Source: Kia)
According to Lee, Kia is in a “strong position in Europe,” especially in the UK. The Korean automaker is currently the third-best-selling brand in the UK, and it is only 300 units away from surpassing BMW.
Although he admitted new Chinese models are creating a “difficult market,” the company is doubling down on the region.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia UK)
Kia will not get caught up in a price war, Lee explained. Instead, the company aims to continue driving the “sustainable growth” it has created over the past few years. Kia’s sales in Europe have increased by 30% since 2020.
Kia EV4 hatchback interior (Source: Kia)
After launching the EV3, Kia said the electric SUV “started with a bang” in January, becoming the UK’s most popular retail electric vehicle. Kia’s compact EV was the best-selling retail EV in the UK during the first quarter and the fourth-best-selling overall.
According to SMNT’s latest registration data, Kia brand sales are up 4% this year, with nearly 52,000 vehicles sold through May. It currently holds a 6.11% market share, up from 6.05% last year.
Kia EV3 Air in Frost Blue (Source: Kia UK)
The EV3 starts at £33,005 ($42,500) in the UK with two battery pack options: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh. The standard battery provides a WLTP range of up to 30 km (270 miles), while the extended range option offers a driving range of 599 km (375 miles).
With the EV3 off to a strong start, the EV4 joining it, and its first electric van, the PV5, rolling out, Kia is laying the groundwork for the “sustainable growth” it’s seeking.
Yesterday, Electrek reported that the EV4 was off to a slow start in Korea with just 831 models sold. However, the disappointing first sales month was due to “limited inventory.”
Ahead of its official launch, we got a sneak peek of the EV4 hatchback after it was spotted driving in Korea (You can watch the video here).
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