The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31.

Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?

Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.

More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan’s deadline preview

Jump to: Trending names | Latest intel

MLB trade deadline trending names

1. Eugenio Suarez: The Arizona Diamondbacks star is No. 1 in our updated MLB trade deadline candidate rankings and could be the most impactful player to move this month. On pace to hit more than 50 home runs, the 2025 All-Star is on the wish list of every contender in need of third-base help.

2. Sandy Alcantara: The 2022 Cy Young winner has had a rough 2025, but may have helped his trade deadline stock with a strong performance against the Padres on Wednesday. His ERA is now down to 6.66 for the Miami Marlins after being over 7.00 for much of the season, and some contenders believe he could regain form in a new home.

3. Jhoan Duran: This deadline is suddenly teeming with high-end relievers who will at the very least be in the rumor mill during the coming days. If the Minnesota Twins opt to move their closer — and his devastating splinker — Duran might be the best of the bunch.

MLB trade deadline buzz

July 23 updates

Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.

The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo

A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney

How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers

Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.

The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez

July 22 updates

An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney

Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney

Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney

Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers

How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.

Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney

What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.

But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.

It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez

Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers

Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.

But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney

Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers

Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.

The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez

Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney

We’re down to crunch time as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.

This deadline might lack some of the potential pizzazz of previous years, but remember that the biggest name last year — Garrett Crochet — ended up not getting traded until the offseason. But this next week should still be interesting, especially if the Arizona Diamondbacks go all-in on trading some of their key players heading into free agency.

Using ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan’s trade deadline preview as a guide, let’s conduct a little exercise: take 10 of the biggest names who could move and see how the dominoes might fall. It’s one-third prediction, one-third science and one-third entertainment. Last year, we nailed only one of the 10 names correctly (Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers), although seven of the players listed were in fact traded.

Let’s start with potentially the most coveted player of this year’s deadline — going to one of the sport’s biggest giants.

Suarez is not only the hottest hitter who might be traded — he has 36 home runs if you haven’t been paying attention — but looks like the best player available, barring a blockbuster deal for a pitcher such as Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore. Let’s start the dominoes with Suarez, especially since several contenders could use an upgrade at third base:

• With Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving to second base, the Yankees are faking third base with the likes of Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas.

• The Seattle Mariners have rookie Ben Williamson, a good defender who has hit one home run in 78 games and has a sub-.300 OBP.

• Cubs third basemen — that’s mostly rookie Matt Shaw — have three home runs all season and the lowest OPS in the majors.

• The Detroit Tigers are near the bottom of the majors in offensive production at third, although Zach McKinstry has been playing there of late and was an All-Star. In the bigger picture, the Tigers’ offense has slumped badly in July after nearly everyone overperformed in the first half, so the front office might be looking to add an impact bat such as Suarez and return McKinstry to a utility role.

• The Milwaukee Brewers churned through third basemen early, but Caleb Durbin has played well of late.

And if you want a dark horse, consider the New York Mets, where Mark Vientos hasn’t replicated his big numbers from 2024 and Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio have played more lately, although they haven’t hit much either. Indeed, with Francisco Lindor struggling the past month, the Mets might need another hitter.

So, who gets Suarez? The Tigers and Cubs are probably more focused on pitching help. The Mariners have an excellent farm system with nine top-100 prospects and know Suarez well after he played there in 2022 and ’23, but their offense does lead the majors in road OPS. Given the way they operate, they might not be willing to trade one of those top prospects for a half-a-season player — and there’s a reasonable argument that the only way they’re going to catch the Houston Astros is for their rotation to start pitching better.

That leaves the Yankees. General manager Brian Cashman has said the Yankees are “going to go to town” at the trade deadline, suggesting they need a starting pitcher, bullpen help and an infielder. The offense has been better again in July after scuffling in June, but Aaron Judge could still use some help. There is an air of desperation as well with the Yankees, as the Toronto Blue Jays passed them in the standings, and Suarez is clearly a perfect fit for their gaping hole at third.

2. Diamondbacks trade Josh Naylor to Mariners

Naylor is another of Arizona’s pending free agents and he’ll cost a lot less than Suarez. Heck, if the Mariners are willing to take on the salaries — unlikely, although if they offer a strong package of prospects, maybe Arizona kicks in some cash — they could acquire both Naylor and Suarez and build a lethal lineup with Suarez hitting behind Cal Raleigh.

Absent that fanciful thinking, Naylor still makes sense as a solid contact hitter for a team that ranks in the bottom 10 of the majors in strikeout rate. Luke Raley can slide to right field or a bench role. The Mariners also need some bullpen depth and perhaps a right-handed bat that would provide an upgrade over Dylan Moore or Donovan Solano, but Naylor would be a nice addition, nonetheless.

One key reason not to rule out Suarez to Detroit: History suggests the teams making the biggest deals at the trade deadline aren’t the ones chasing a playoff spot or simply trying to hold on to a wild-card berth, but those teams already in first place. The Tigers know they’re going to the postseason; they want to make their team better for October. A team that isn’t guaranteed a playoff spot is risking future value for a playoff run that might not exist.

At the minimum, the Tigers will be adding to a bullpen that has been hemorrhaging runs of late. Will Vest has remained solid, but Tommy Kahnle had been their other late-game high-leverage reliever and he just had a recent run of nine runs allowed over three outings. Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has rediscovered his feel and command after a rough 2024. He also comes with an additional season of team control. The other top relievers who might be available include Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians, and Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins, but don’t look for an intradivision trade there.

Where do our first three dominoes leave the Cubs? They could still upgrade third base, although the options are somewhat limited after Suarez. They would like to add a starting pitcher to a rotation that ranks just outside the top 10 in the majors in ERA but might be considered unstable beyond Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Passan has the Cubs perhaps thinking really big and going after Gore or Ryan, or the Pirates’ Mitch Keller, but we’ll play it a little more conservatively.

Of the pitchers heading to free agency, Lugo is the best combination of “good” and “likely to be traded,” and the Cubs should be the team most willing to offer what’s needed to get him. They have a championship-caliber lineup and defense, plus the bullpen has been solid. Their farm system strength is on the position player side, which also matches up with the Royals’ needs. The one potential issue here: Neither Boyd nor Imanaga average a strikeout per inning, and neither does Lugo, so there might be some concern about how that rotation plays in the postseason — hence, the “think big” idea of Gore or Ryan, even if it means emptying the farm system.

5. Twins trade Griffin Jax to Mets

One guarantee of the trade deadline: The Mets will add to the bullpen, probably with more than one trade. Though the rotation still ranks fifth in ERA, that was built off a hot start. More importantly, the only Mets starter to complete six innings since June 7 has been David Peterson. As a result, manager Carlos Mendoza has run relievers Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazoban, Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek into the ground. The bullpen had a 2.78 ERA through May, but that figure is over 5.00 since the beginning of June (ranking near the bottom of the majors).

The Twins have two high-profile relievers in Duran and Jax, both of whom are under team control through 2027, so they’ll be much more expensive than your usual short-term relievers if the Twins decide to trade one or both. Duran would be harder to deal — but bring more in return — so we’ll say Jax will go. Don’t be fooled by his 4.09 ERA: He has 68 strikeouts and 12 walks in 44 innings with a 97-mph heater. He’s an elite strikeout reliever, the type you want on the mound in October.

6. Guardians trade Steven Kwan to Dodgers

OK, now it’s time for some fun. We know the Dodgers will do something, right? They almost always do — and it’s usually something significant. It could be a reliever, since Tanner Scott has scuffled at times (and was also just put on the injured list because of left elbow inflammation, though his MRI showed no ligament damage) and Michael Kopech is injured. Not to mention their bullpen woes have been on full display lately. It could be a starter, although they’re finally trending a little healthier there. So, how about an outfielder and a leadoff hitter?

The reasoning here: Michael Conforto just hasn’t worked out. The Dodgers have given him 300 plate appearances and he’s hitting under .200, plus he’s not a good left fielder. They could also use a leadoff hitter. They just moved Mookie Betts there in front of Shohei Ohtani, looking to get Betts going, but Betts just hasn’t been an offensive force in 2025 and shouldn’t be hitting at the top of a lineup right now. Kwan would fix both issues and give them a nice OBP guy in front of Ohtani while providing a major defensive upgrade.

Would Cleveland trade Kwan? Jeff and Kiley McDaniel ranked him No. 2 on ESPN’s updated list of the top 50 trade candidates, although admittedly gave just a 20% chance that he would be traded. He’s under team control through 2027 and is making $4.1 million this season, with a big raise due next year. The Guardians also need power and the Dodgers could offer a nice package of prospects, maybe starting with catcher Dalton Rushing or a potential power-hitting outfielder such as Zyhir Hope or Eduardo Quintero. (Top prospect Josue De Paula is probably off limits.)

7. Pirates trade Mitch Keller to Red Sox

The Keller rumors keep picking up steam. He’s signed through 2028, although this type of controllable pitcher is rarely — ever? — traded at the deadline. But the Pirates might view this as their best opportunity to add some much-needed offense. As Passan wrote, the Blue Jays also make a lot of sense for Keller, with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer headed to free agency after this season and then Kevin Gausman after 2026.

But the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders already in the majors and more hitting prospects in the minors, so they line up as a potential match with Pittsburgh. This could be an old-fashioned challenge trade with the Red Sox offering Jarren Duran, who matches Keller in being under team control through 2028. Or maybe the Pirates would want multiple players — Kristian Campbell has been squeezed out of a spot in the Boston lineup, for example, and High-A infielder Franklin Arias would be another option.

It’s admittedly more likely the Red Sox do something smaller, not wishing to break up their momentum. Manager Alex Cora has managed to keep everyone active, including starting Ceddanne Rafaela at second base a couple of times recently (although you hate taking his glove out of center field). Or don’t rule out adding a first baseman, such as Naylor or Ryan O’Hearn. Abraham Toro has done OK filling in for injured Triston Casas, but his track record suggests he could regress at any moment.

8. Orioles trade Ryan O’Hearn to Astros

Speaking of O’Hearn, he’s one of several players the Orioles will look to trade — and might be the one who will generate the most interest. The Astros still hold a six-game lead in the AL West, continuing to play well through a long list of injuries, but general manager Dana Brown has talked about the need to add a left-handed hitter. O’Hearn could play left field for the Astros, who have been using Cooper Hummel, Taylor Trammell and defensive liability Jose Altuve in the outfield lately. Even if the injured Yordan Alvarez makes it back, Altuve could then slide back to second base.

The Padres are one of the potential landing spots for O’Hearn as they look to boost an offense that ranks in the bottom third of the NL in runs scored. Since we have O’Hearn going to the Astros, the domino falls to Ozuna going to the Padres to fill their DH hole. (They don’t have a regular there.) His $16 million salary — or about $5.4 million over the final two months — might be a little steep for the Padres, but we know that general manager A.J. Preller will do something. He always does. Ozuna’s power numbers are down this season, plus he has been terrible the past two months, so there is some risk here, but he had an OBP over .400 in April and May.

10. Diamondbacks trade Merrill Kelly to Blue Jays

The Blue Jays just keep winning, despite a rotation that ranks in the bottom third in the majors in ERA (Eric Lauer has been their best starter of late). We have them missing out on Lugo and Keller, in part because their farm system isn’t considered particularly strong, so the final domino on our list is Kelly going to Toronto. Passan had good reasoning as to why the Diamondbacks would be more likely to trade Kelly than Gallen. Both are free agents, but Arizona could look to re-sign the older (and thus less expensive) Kelly in the offseason while keeping Gallen and giving him a qualifying offer to recoup a draft pick if he leaves as a free agent.

A number of contenders didn’t land one of the 10 biggest names in our exercise but could certainly still be involved in the trade market. The Philadelphia Phillies, who just signed David Robertson for the bullpen, could still add another reliever and maybe an outfielder. The Texas Rangers haven’t gone away and could be in that O’Hearn/Naylor mix for a first baseman (and the relief market as well). The San Francisco Giants could add a starting pitcher — Zack Littell would be a semi-big splash, with Charlie Morton and Zach Eflin two more Orioles who could be traded.

That’s it for our game of dominoes. Now, it’s time for the action to begin.

For every college football team, the season often can swing on one person, position group or situation. If this one thing comes together as planned — or even better than expected — the season could be a big success. If it doesn’t go well, the team’s season could go south.

Though the quarterback position often fills that role, especially when there’s a new player at the helm, other concerns can be shoring up a weakness from last year, incorporating a key transfer or having an important player return from injury.

For the teams in our post-spring Power Rankings, the stakes are particularly high. Spots in the College Football Playoff are on the line, and failure could put coaches on the hot seat.

We asked our college football reporters to provide the biggest X factor — the one thing that could make or break the season — for each of our Top 25 teams.

X factor: QB Drew Allar‘s big-game performances

Penn State enters what appears to be an all-in season, and Allar has the ingredients to be the top NFL quarterback prospect for the 2026 draft. But his play under the brightest of lights has left something to be desired. He hasn’t beaten Ohio State or Michigan, he delivered some good moments in a Big Ten championship game loss to Oregon but was still intercepted twice, and threw the crucial interception in a CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame. Penn State has made the necessary investments around Allar, who will share a backfield with probably the nation’s top running back tandem. The time has come for the senior to be at his best in the biggest moments. If he delivers, Penn State will have a real chance at its first national title since 1986. — Adam Rittenberg

X factor: Run defense

Though the Tigers have had standout players across their front seven over the past few years, that group has fallen short in one particular area — rush defense — and it became glaring last season. The truth is, its decline began when Wes Goodwin took over as defensive coordinator. In each of his three seasons, the rush defense has gotten worse, culminating in what became a major issue in 2024. Clemson gave up 160.6 yards on the ground, and there isn’t much more proof needed as to how poorly the Tigers attempted to stop the run than their playoff loss to Texas, when the Longhorns rushed for 292 yards. Clemson tackled poorly and often took bad angles. This season Tom Allen takes over after leading one of the best rushing defenses in the country at Penn State. Expect this area to be vastly improved, returning to the standard Clemson set under Brent Venables. — Andrea Adelson

X factor: Middle of the defensive line

Texas has been loaded the past two seasons, but one of the reasons it made back-to-back CFP semifinal trips were the big men in the middle of the defensive line. Giant, athletic space-eaters such as T’Vondre Sweat, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy II and Alfred Collins made it tough to push the Longhorns around and freed up others to make plays when they weren’t. But this offseason, Texas had to go searching for big men, landing Syracuse freshman All-American Maraad Watson (6-foot-3, 313 pounds), Cole Brevard (6-3, 333) from Purdue, North Carolina’s Travis Shaw (6-5, 342), and 6-5, 299-pound German Hero Kanu, who arrives from Ohio State. Five-star freshman Justus Terry (6-5, 268) is already on campus and will look to be in the mix along with sophomore Alex January (6-5, 308), who appeared in 11 games last season. The Longhorns have star edge rushers in Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, and do-everything linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to bring pressure. But opening against Ohio State, then hitting an SEC schedule with so many new faces up front will be a key area for Texas. — Dave Wilson

X factor: WR Colbie Young

Georgia hopes it upgraded its receiver corps by adding Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), and heralded freshman C.J. Wiley. The return of Young, a senior, might end up being equally important. Young played sparingly last season and was suspended while facing criminal charges involving an alleged domestic violence incident. He reached a plea deal with prosecutors and returned to the team. He’s an outside threat that excels at making contested catches. “Yeah, he gives you problems outside,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “You’re going out there and there’s not a lot of defense you can have for a guy that gets the ball at the highest point and goes up.” — Mark Schlabach

X factor: TE Max Klare

The Buckeyes landed the top tight end in the transfer portal in Klare, who arrived in Columbus from Purdue. Klare caught 51 passes for 685 years and four touchdowns during his sophomore season, easily leading the Boilermakers in those three categories. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound Klare figures to give the Buckeyes a dynamic target over the middle of the field, nicely complementing receiver Carnell Tate and All-American wideout Jeremiah Smith. Klare’s presence should also give Ohio State’s new starting quarterback — whether it’s Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz — a playmaking security blanket early in the season. With Smith set to command attention on the outside, Klare should find plenty of favorable matchups operating inside. — Jake Trotter

X factor: QB Garrett Nussmeier

Quite simply, Nussmeier will determine how far LSU goes in 2025. Recent years have been good to the returning LSU starter — Jayden Daniels being the latest example — and Nussmeier’s stats from last season compare to those of Daniels from 2022 before he won the Heisman Trophy the following year. Brian Kelly did a fantastic job in the transfer portal bolstering the roster, including getting Nussmeier plenty of weapons and added protection. If there were a situation in which a good player becomes great in 2025, it feels as if it’s in Baton Rouge with Nussmeier helping Kelly achieve what he came to LSU to do. — Harry Lyles Jr.

X factor: QB CJ Carr

Carr hasn’t attempted a pass in a game yet at Notre Dame, but the quarterback is facing lofty expectations heading into the 2025 season. Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, is still locked in a battle with Kenny Minchey for the starting job. Last year’s backup, Steve Angeli, transferred to Syracuse. After redshirting last year because of an elbow injury in his throwing arm, Carr performed well in spring practice. He appears to be the player to beat. The Saline, Michigan, native was ranked the No. 2 pocket passer in the Class of 2024, according to ESPN. With running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price returning, along with a good offensive line, the Irish might not need much from Carr. But he’ll have to avoid turnovers and make good decisions while running the offense. — Mark Schlabach

X factor: QB Dante Moore

Dan Lanning’s team is so deep and well rounded that it’s hard to say the Ducks’ success this season will hinge entirely on Moore. And yet, since the Ducks’ lineage of quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel) has buoyed Oregon’s offense in recent years, Moore has some big shoes to fill. The 20-year-old sophomore spent a year learning under Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein after getting thrown into the fire as a true freshman starter during his lone season at UCLA. This time, the stage will be much bigger and the pressure much higher. — Paolo Uggetti

X factor: QB Ty Simpson

Simpson has waited his turn and had chances to win the quarterback job at Alabama, and now it’s his time unless he takes a step back during preseason camp, which is something nobody at Alabama expects to happen. In his fourth year in the program, Simpson will be starting anew with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, but he has the multidimensional skills Grubb likes in his quarterback. Getting off to a good start will be critical for Simpson and the Tide. — Chris Low

X factor: LB Siale Esera

After playing in only five games in each of the past two seasons, Esera’s career hasn’t gotten off to the start many were expecting from the Provo native. But now that he is fully healthy, that should change. Esera emerged from spring ball as a starting linebacker and has drawn rave reviews from both head coach Kalani Sitake and defensive coordinator Jay Hill. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, he has both the size and athleticism to become a difference-maker in the Big 12 — and that’s the expectation. — Kyle Bonagura

X factor: OLB Gabe Jacas

Jacas might not be a national name just yet, but he has the skill set to propel Illinois and contend for the sport’s biggest defensive honors. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Jacas led Illinois in sacks (8), tackles for loss (13), forced fumbles (3) and quarterback hurries (10) last fall, and bypassed the NFL for another chance with an Illini squad that returns most of its core players from a 10-win team. Illinois probably needs to develop more pass-rush punch around Jacas, who was the team’s only consistent threat off the edge last season. The Illini also struggled a bit against good passing offenses. But if Jacas can defeat double-teams, or free up others to pressure quarterbacks, Illinois should have a chance at its first CFP appearance. — Rittenberg

X factor: Wide receivers beyond Jordyn Tyson

Despite sitting out the last two games of the season, Tyson caught 75 passes in 2024. All other Arizona State wide receivers combined for 61 receptions. It was certainly impressive that the Sun Devils managed two great performances at the end of the season without Tyson, but the limitations of the ASU receiving corps ramped up the degree of difficulty for quarterback Sam Leavitt and do-everything running back Cam Skattebo. With Skattebo now in the NFL, some combination of receivers Malik McClain and Derek Eusebio, and incoming transfers Jalen Moss (Fresno State), Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama) will need to come up big to make sure Leavitt and Tyson have the help they need. — Bill Connelly

X factor: WR Nyck Harbor

No player on South Carolina’s roster looks the part quite like Harbor. He’s 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, built like DK Metcalf and is an absolute rocket. But that speed has been a bit of his downfall through two seasons in Columbia, where he has spent spring as part of the Gamecocks’ track team. Call it a distraction — that’s debatable — but his development on the football field hasn’t been quite as fast as the Gamecocks might have hoped. Harbor has started 13 games over two seasons but caught only 38 passes and three touchdowns. This spring, he focused solely on football, and he says he’s poised for a breakthrough. “Going through a whole year totally committed to football, I’ve never had that before,” Harbor said. “It’s done wonders in my ability to understand the game and build off last year. I’m going to be a whole different player by the time fall rolls around.” — David Hale

X factor: WR Chase Sowell

Sowell steps into a wide receiver room that lost its top two players — Jayden Higgins (second-round pick by the Houston Texans) and Jaylin Noel (third-round pick by the Texans) — leaving a massive production gap on the outside. Sowell was a reliable option at East Carolina the past two seasons — 34 catches, 678 yards in 2024; 47 catches, 622 yards in 2023 — and is expected to offer the Cyclones a much-needed big-play threat. Sowell should benefit from the experience of quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be starting for a third straight season in Ames. — Bonagura

X factor: TE RJ Maryland

For sheer NFL potential, there might not be a better prospect at SMU than Maryland. The tight end has racked up 17 touchdown catches over his first three seasons, but last year was cut short after he was injured in a win over Stanford, sitting out the rest of the season. Maryland should be back to 100% by the start of the 2025 season, and his return comes at a critical time for SMU’s passing game, as six of the other seven Mustangs to reel in at least 200 receiving yards last season are gone. A healthy Maryland creates a clear-cut mismatch and forces defenses to adjust each week. He could be in line for a breakthrough season — and if that happens, the Mustangs’ offense should follow suit. — Hale

X factor: Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood

It really can’t be overstated that this defense has to be better. Texas Tech has been one of the biggest storylines of the college football offseason when it comes to roster building, largely because of the Red Raiders’ willingness to spend money. Wood comes in after tenures as defensive coordinator at Tulane in 2023 and Houston in 2024. On paper, this is a much more talented group. Statistically, it can’t be much worse. But we won’t know until the opening kickoff. — Lyles

X factor: QB Fernando Mendoza

Can Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, take another jump in 2025? Among all the variables that could potentially lift — or let down — the Hoosiers’ in Year 2 under coach Curt Cignetti, none feel more important than this. Mendoza became a beacon of a spirited (if ultimately underwhelming) 6-7 campaign for the Bears last fall, when he completed 68.7% of his passes (12th best nationally among QBs with at least 100 passing attempts) in his first full season as a starter. Mendoza has big shoes to fill after Kurtis Rourke motored Indiana’s record-setting offense to the nation’s second-best points per game tally (41.3) in 2024. But Mendoza should be playing behind a sturdier offensive line in 2025, and there are plenty of playmakers within an intriguing Hoosiers skill position group led by veteran receiver Elijah Sarratt. If Mendoza can find another gear operating a more favorable situation this fall, it could go a long way toward pulling Indiana back into playoff contention. — Eli Lederman

X factor: QB Avery Johnson

The K-State program is obviously in sturdy shape, having won between eight and 10 games for four straight years under Chris Klieman. But when you sign a big-time, blue-chip quarterback such as Johnson (ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat QB in the 2023 class), you’re giving yourself a shot at a higher ceiling than usual. Johnson’s first season as a starter in 2024 was all over the map — the good was very good, the bad was awfully worrisome — which is how these things usually go. But now he’s entering his junior season, and he has a super explosive skill corps with weapons such as running back Dylan Edwards, receiver Jayce Brown and transfers Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana). If Johnson is ready to live up to his hype, Kansas State fans could really enjoy 2025. — Connelly

X factor: Health of QB DJ Lagway

Quarterback play at any level of football is more valuable than it has ever been, and a big reason expectations are growing in Gainesville is because of No. 2 for the Gators. Lagway had some shoulder soreness in the offseason that carried over from last year, so he was limited in spring practice and played only five snaps in the spring game. He resumed throwing in late April, and it seems Florida has been cautious in hopes of having him ready to go this fall for a healthy season. — Lyles

X factor: QB Bryce Underwood

Underwood’s high-profile commitment flip from LSU to Michigan was among the biggest recruiting coups yet in the NIL era. The Wolverines also brought in Mikey Keene through the transfer portal. Keene has thrown for 8,245 career yards and 65 touchdowns during stints at Fresno State and UCF. But Underwood has the talent that could turn Michigan into a playoff contender. That’s a lot to ask of a true freshman. But Underwood isn’t an ordinary freshman. The top-rated pocket passer in the 2025 class, Underwood won two state titles in Michigan and went 50-4 as the starter at Belleville High School, with 38 straight victories from Week 4 of his freshman season to the state title game of his junior year. The Wolverines struggled to throw the ball last year. Underwood could immediately change that in 2025 — if he wins the job. — Trotter

X factor: Defensive secondary

Headed into last season, the X factor for Miami was a thin secondary, and that unit ended up having a role in costing the Hurricanes a spot in the ACC championship game. Now, that group should be considered a strength — and the X factor again. If this unit plays the way it is projected to, the Hurricanes will have fixed the biggest issue on their team from a year ago. Miami brought in highly touted transfers Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State), returns FWAA freshman All-American OJ Frederique Jr., and signed several freshmen and others through the portal to build depth. Without question, Miami is far more talented at this position, and that could be the difference between playing for a championship. — Adelson

X factor: Running game

There might not be a better one-two punch at tailback in the country than Louisville’s duo of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Among Power 4 backs with at least 60 carries last season, Watson led the nation by averaging 8.9 yards per rush. Brown was fourth at 7.11. Over Louisville’s final eight games of the season, the duo combined for 1,264 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards and 16 scrimmage touchdowns while forcing 43 missed tackles. Plus, the Cards’ O-line should be among the ACC’s best, creating a blueprint for one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country. — Hale

X factor: Running game

The Aggies’ offense will go as far as their running backs take it. Last season, Le’Veon Moss broke out, averaging 6.3 yards a carry with 10 touchdowns, and had been responsible for about a quarter of the offense’s entire production when he was lost for the season because of a knee injury against South Carolina in November. The Aggies, 7-1 going into that game, lost that one, then finished 8-5 without Moss, losing to Auburn, Texas and USC by a combined 16 points to limp to the finish. Freshman Rueben Owens, a star recruit, also missed most of last season because of a foot injury. With Moss and Owens back, along with Amari Daniels, who added 700 yards and eight TDs last year, suddenly A&M has an embarrassment of riches at the position. With the Aggies returning a strong offensive line, offensive coordinator Collin Klein will be able to take some pressure off quarterback Marcel Reed‘s development along with a new group of wide receivers. — Wilson

X factor: WR Cayden Lee

Ole Miss enters the 2025 season with a first-year starter at quarterback in Austin Simmons. Much has been made about the transfers Lane Kiffin brought in at receiver, specifically with De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III. But Lee comes in off of a solid sophomore season, with 874 yards and two touchdowns on 57 receptions. Adding talent in the portal is good, no doubt, but there is value in guys who have (literally) been there and done that. — Lyles

X factor: QB John Mateer

The Sooners swung big in the transfer portal and brought in Mateer (along with his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle) from Washington State to bring some life to an offense that finished 97th nationally in scoring offense (24 points per game) and 113th in total offense (313 yards per game) last season. Mateer can beat defenses with his arm and legs. He was the only FBS quarterback last season to pass for more than 3,000 yards (3,139) and rush for more than 800 yards (826), and he accounted for 44 touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing). If he plays at a similar level in Norman, the Sooners should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC. — Low