Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests

Published

4 months ago

December 29, 2024

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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.

While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.

More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.

The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.

According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.

A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.

But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.

Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.

At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.

Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.

Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government

More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.

Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.

The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.

In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.

More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.

‘Uncertain future’

The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.

The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.

If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.

The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.

However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.

And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.

Politics

Solana’s Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack

Published

6 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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<div>Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after .8M hack</div>

Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Loopscale has temporarily halted its lending markets after suffering an approximately $5.8 million exploit.

On April 26, a hacker siphoned approximately 5.7 million USDC (USDC) and 1200 Solana (SOL) from the lending protocol after taking out a “series of undercollateralized loans”, Loopscale co-founder Mary Gooneratne said in an X post.

The exploit only impacted Loopscale’s USDC and SOL vaults and the losses represent around 12% of Loopscale’s total value locked (TVL), Gooneratne added.

Loopscale is “working to resume repayment functionality as soon as possible to mitigate unforeseen liquidations,” its said in an X post.

“Our team is fully mobilized to investigate, recover funds, and ensure users are protected,” Gooneratne said.

Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack — *Loopscale’s ‘Genesis’ lending vaults. Source: Loopscale*

In the first quarter of 2025, hackers stole more than $1.6 billion worth of crypto from exchanges and on-chain smart contracts, blockchain security firm PeckShield said in an April report.

More than 90% of those losses are attributable to a $1.5 billion attack on ByBit, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, by North Korean hacking outfit Lazarus Group.

Unique DeFi lending model

Launched on April 10 after a six-month closed beta, Loopscale is a DeFi lending protocol designed to enhance capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers.

It also supports specialized lending markets, such as “structured credit, receivables financing, and undercollateralized lending,” Loopscale said in an April announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Loopscale’s order book model distinguishes it from DeFi lending peers such as Aave that aggregate cryptocurrency deposits into liquidity pools.

Loopscale’s main USDC and SOL vaults yield APRs exceeding 5% and 10%, respectively. It also supports lending markets for tokens such as JitoSOL and BONK (BONK) and looping strategies for upwards of 40 different token pairs.

The DeFi protocol has approximately $40 million in TVL and has attracted upwards of 7,000 lenders, according to researcher OurNetwork.

Magazine: Ripple says SEC lawsuit ‘over,’ Trump at DAS, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 16 – 22

Politics

US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

Published

9 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

United States Senator Jon Ossoff expressed support for impeaching President Donald Trump during an April 25 town hall, citing the President’s plan to host a private dinner for top Official Trump memecoin holders.

“I mean, I saw just 48 hours ago, he is granting audiences to people who buy his meme coin,” said Ossoff, a Democrat, according to a report by NBC News.

“When the sitting president of the United States is selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him. There is no question that that rises to the level of an impeachable offense.”

Senator Ossoff said he “strongly” supports impeachment proceedings during a town hall in the state of Georgia, where he is running for reelection to the Senate.

The Senator added that an impeachment is unlikely unless the Democratic Party gains control of Congress during the US midterm elections in 2026. Trump’s own Republican Party currently has a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Conflicts of interest

On April 23, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin’s website announced plans for Trump to host an exclusive dinner at his Washington, DC golf club with the top 220 TRUMP holders.

The website subsequently posted a leaderboard tracking top TRUMP wallets and a link to register for the event. The TRUMP token’s price has gained more than 50% since the announcement, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The specific guest list is unclear, but the memecoin’s website states that applicants must pass a background check, “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country,” and cannot bring any additional guests.

On April 25, the team behind TRUMP denied social media rumors that TRUMP holders need at least $300,000 to participate in an upcoming dinner with the president.

“People have been incorrectly quoting #220 on the block explorer as the cutoff. That’s wrong because it includes things like locked tokens, exchanges, market makers, and those who are not participating. Instead, you should only be going off the leaderboard,” they wrote.

Law, Politics, Senate, Donald Trump, trumpcoin, Memecoin — *The TRUMP token jumped on news of the private dinner plans. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Legal experts told Cointelegraph that Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures, including the TRUMP memecoin and Trump-affiliated decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol World Liberty Financial, raise significant concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

“Within just a couple of days of him taking office, he’s signed a number of executive orders that are significantly going to affect the way that our crypto and digital assets industry works,” Charlyn Ho of law firm Rikka told Cointelegraph in February.

“So if he has a personal pecuniary benefit arising from his own policies, that’s a conflict of interest.”

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Politics

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Published

12 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Crypto investor sentiment has seen a significant recovery from global tariff concerns, but analysts warn that the market’s structural weaknesses may still result in downside momentum during periods of weekend illiquidity.

Risk appetite appeared to return among crypto investors this week after US President Donald Trump adopted a softer tone, saying that import tariffs on Chinese goods may “come down substantially.”

However, the improved investor sentiment “does not guarantee that Bitcoin will avoid volatility over the weekend,” analysts from Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph:

“Sentiment improvements reduce fragility, but they do not eliminate structural risks like thin weekend liquidity.”

“Historically, weekends remain vulnerable to sharp moves — especially when open interest is high and market depth is low,” the analysts said, adding that unexpected macroeconomic news can still increase volatility during low liquidity periods.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a near 11% recovery during the past week, but its rally has previously been limited by Sunday liquidity dynamics.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, April 6, despite initially decoupling from the US stock market’s $3.5 trillion drop on April 4 after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs may affect the economy and raise inflation.

The correction was exacerbated by the lack of weekend liquidity and the fact that Bitcoin was the only large liquid asset available for de-risking, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

“While improved sentiment creates a more stable foundation, cryptocurrency markets are still susceptible to rapid movements during periods of reduced trading volume,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of RedStone blockchain oracle firm.

“The sentiment recovery provides some cushioning, but traders should remain cautious as weekend liquidity constraints can still amplify price movements regardless of the current market mood,” he told Cointelegraph.

Crypto investors may have “maxed out on tariff-related fears”

Cryptocurrency markets may have priced in the full extent of tariff-related concerns, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“It feels like we’ve maxed out on tariff-related fear,” she told Cointelegraph, adding:

“While many remain uncertain about where things are headed over the next month or so, it also seems like markets were just waiting for the slightest signal that we’re back in the game.”

“Whether the rally is sustainable depends on whether we can break through previous resistance levels, at least in isolation. It could have legs, as markets now seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, the US dollar and US Treasurys,” Barthere added, warning of more potential volatility amid the upcoming negotiations.

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance that crypto markets will bottom and start a recovery by June, but highlighted that the timing will depend on the outcome of tariff negotiations.

The tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach a trade agreement with China, which may be the “big prize” for Trump’s administration, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.