Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests

Published

5 months ago

December 29, 2024

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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.

While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.

More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.

The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.

According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.

A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.

But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.

Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.

At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.

Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.

Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government

More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.

Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.

The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.

In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.

More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.

‘Uncertain future’

The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.

The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.

If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.

The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.

However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.

And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.

Politics

CZ refutes claims in latest WSJ article on Trump-linked crypto dealings

Published

1 hour ago

May 23, 2025

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CZ refutes claims in latest WSJ article on Trump-linked crypto dealings

Binance co-founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has pushed back against a report in The Wall Street Journal, calling it a “hit piece” filled with inaccuracies and negative assumptions.

In an X post, Zhao criticized the publication’s portrayal of his alleged involvement with World Liberty Financial, the decentralized finance project backed by a business entity affiliated with US President Donald Trump. Trump’s sons — Eric and Donald Jr. —are involved in the management of the company.

Zhao said the WSJ article portrayed him as acting as a “fixer” for the WLF team and its co-founder Zach Witkoff during foreign trips.

The article suggested Zhao facilitated introductions and meetings for WLF leaders during foreign trips, including a visit to Pakistan that reportedly resulted in a memorandum of understanding with a local official.

“I am not a fixer for anyone,” Zhao said, firmly denying that he connected Pakistani official “Mr. Saqib” with WLF or organized any engagements abroad. “They had known each other way back, whereas I only met with Mr. Saqib for the first time in Pakistan.”

WSJ reports on Steve and Zach Witkoff

Zhao’s response follows a WSJ investigation highlighting a complex string of diplomatic and business interests involving WLF.

The report raised concerns about the blurred lines between public duties and private interests and focused on diplomatic and business dealings involving WLF co-founders Steve Witkoff and his son, Zach Witkoff. Steve Witkoff serves as the US Special Envoy to the Middle East under the Trump administration, while Zach Witkoff has been involved in securing a reported $2 billion crypto deal.

The report raised questions about whether diplomatic efforts overlapped with private crypto ventures, and implied Zhao may have been attempting to curry favor with the Trump administration

On May 6, Zhao confirmed that he is seeking a pardon from the Trump administration for his earlier money laundering conviction.

The report also highlighted that WLFI, which raised over $600 million in token sales, does not disclose the names of all its investors aside from some publicly known ones like Tron founder Justin Sun, who attended Trump’s memecoin dinner on May 22.

Trump hosted the dinner for the largest investors of his Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin. Sun, Magic Eden CEO Jack Lu and BitMart CEO Sheldon Xia were among attendees and shared photos of the event.

Zhao claims the WSJ report is an “attack” on crypto

Zhao claimed the WSJ submitted a list of questions containing what he described as “wrong and negative assumptions.” He and his public relations team responded by pointing out several factual inaccuracies, he said, but concluded that the article was “built on a flawed narrative.”

Zhao slammed the WSJ, calling it a “mouthpiece” for anti-crypto forces in the United States. He said the forces behind the publication want to hinder efforts to make the US a crypto capital.

“They want to attack crypto, global crypto leaders and the pro-crypto administration,” CZ claimed, saying the article is part of a broader effort to stifle the industry’s growth in the US.

This is not the first time Zhao has clapped back at the WSJ recently. In an April 11 report, the publication cited anonymous sources alleging that Zhao agreed to testify against Tron founder Justin Sun as he settled with US prosecutors.

CZ dismissed the report, saying that people who become government witnesses don’t go to prison and are protected. CZ also claimed that someone paid WSJ employees to smear his name.

Magazine: Crypto scam hub expose stunt goes viral, Kakao detects 70K scam apps: Asia Express

Politics

Cetus offers $6M bounty after $220M hack as Sui faces decentralization debate

Published

3 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Cetus offers M bounty after 0M hack as Sui faces decentralization debate

Cetus is offering a $6 million white hat bounty in an effort to recover $220 million in stolen digital assets, while emergency responses from the Sui Network have raised concerns about decentralization.

Sui-native decentralized exchange (DEX) Cetus was exploited for over $220 million worth of cryptocurrency on May 22. However, Cetus managed to freeze $162 million of the stolen funds shortly after.

Cetus has since offered a white hat bounty of up to $6 million for the exploiter for returning the stolen 20,920 Ether (ETH), worth over $55 million, along with the rest of the stolen funds currently frozen on the Sui blockchain.

“In exchange, you can keep 2,324 ETH ($6M) as a bounty, and we will consider the matter closed and will not pursue any further legal, intelligence, or public action,” Cetus wrote in a message embedded in a blockchain transaction on May 22.

Cetus offers $6M bounty after $220M hack as Sui faces decentralization debate — *A bounty offer to the hacker. Source: Suivision*

However, Cetus will “escalate with full legal and intelligence resources” if these assets are off-ramped or sent to cryptocurrency mixers and not returned promptly.

A white hat bounty is offered to ethical hackers who seek protocol vulnerabilities to prevent future exploits.

Cryptocurrency hacks soared to $90 million across 15 incidents in April, a 124% increase from March when hackers stole $41 million worth of digital assets.

Meanwhile, the industry is still recovering from the largest crypto hack, which saw Bybit exchange lose over $1.4 billion on Feb. 21, 2025.

SUI considers emergency white list function to override transactions

Meanwhile, GitHub activity shows the Sui team has considered implementing an emergency whitelist function that would allow certain transactions to bypass security checks, potentially to recover funds linked to the hack.

“It appears that the Sui team asked every validator to deploy patched code so they could take away @CetusProtocol hacker’s $160 million via an unsigned tx,” said Chaofan Shou, a software engineer at Solayer Labs.

However, an unnamed Sui engineer told Shou that “validators held off deploying this and currently they are only denying tx that involves hacker’s objects,” he said in a May 22 X post.

The move has sparked criticism among decentralization advocates, who argue that the ability to override transactions contradicts the principles of a decentralized permissionless network.

Despite widespread criticism in the crypto community, some saw the rapid response as a sign of progress, not centralization.

“This is what real world decentralization looks like. Not just powerless, but responsive and aligned with the community,” said pseudonymous crypto sleuth Matteo, adding that decentralization “isn’t about standing by while people get hurt, it’s about the power to act together, without needing permission.”

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Politics

Hyperliquid backs 24/7 crypto trading in CFTC comments submission

Published

4 hours ago

May 23, 2025

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Hyperliquid backs 24/7 crypto trading in CFTC comments submission

Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetuals exchange operating on its own layer-1 blockchain, has submitted formal comments on 24/7 derivatives trading to the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

In a May 23 X post, Hyperliquid Labs announced that it has “submitted two comment letters to the [CFTC] in response to its recent Requests for Comment on perpetual derivatives and 24/7 trading.” The team behind the decentralized exchange (DEX) added:

“We commend the CFTC for its proactive engagement on these topics, understanding of which is fundamental to the evolution of global markets.”

Hyperliquid stated that it is committed to the advancement of the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. The team also claimed that its implementation “exemplifies how core DeFi principles can be put into practice to enhance market efficiency, market integrity, and user protection.”

CFTC’s 24/7 derivatives plans

Hyperliquid’s remarks follow CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger recently saying that crypto perpetual futures contracts could receive regulatory approval in the US “very soon.” Perpetual crypto futures “can come to market now,” she said.

“We’re seeing some applications, and I believe we’ll see some of those products trading live very soon,” Mersinger said. She also added that it would be “great to get that trading back onshore in the United States.”

Perpetual futures contracts are a type of derivative that allows traders to speculate on the price of a crypto asset without owning it, similar to traditional futures, but with no expiration date. Such contracts remain open indefinitely and are kept in line with the spot market price using a funding rate mechanism, where payments are exchanged between long and short positions at regular intervals.

Crypto derivatives are a busy area

The crypto derivatives market has recently been swarming with announcements of product launches, acquisitions and regulatory developments. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said the exchange will continue to look for merger and acquisition opportunities after acquiring crypto derivatives platform Deribit.

Armstrong’s remarks followed Coinbase’s agreement to acquire Deribit, one of the world’s biggest crypto derivatives trading platforms. Europe is seeing just as much hustle in the crypto derivatives industry as the Americas are.

Major crypto exchange Gemini has also recently received regulatory approval to expand crypto derivatives trading across Europe. Elsewhere, DeFi platform Synthetix will also venture further into crypto derivatives, with plans to re-acquire the crypto options platform Derive.

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