Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests
Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.
While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.
More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.
The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.
According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.
A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.
But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.
Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.
There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.
At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.
Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.
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Farage attacks UK’s voting system
Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government
More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.
Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.
The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.
In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.
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More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.
‘Uncertain future’
The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.
The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.
If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.
The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.
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However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.
And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, marks their 50th birthday amid a year of rising institutional and geopolitical adoption of the world’s first cryptocurrency.
The identity of Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in crypto, with speculation ranging from cryptographers like Adam Back and Nick Szabo to broader theories involving government intelligence agencies.
While Nakamoto’s identity remains anonymous, the Bitcoin (BTC) creator is believed to have turned 50 on April 5 based on details shared in the past.
According to archived data from his P2P Foundation profile, Nakamoto once claimed to be a 37-year-old man living in Japan and listed his birthdate as April 5, 1975.
Source: Web.archive.org
Nakamoto’s anonymity has played a vital role in maintaining the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, which has no central authority or leadership.
The Bitcoin wallet associated with Nakamoto, which holds over 1 million BTC, has laid dormant for more than 16 years despite BTC rising from $0 to an all-time high above $109,000 in January.
Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland. Source: Cointelegraph
Nakamoto’s 50th birthday comes nearly a month after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, marking the first major step toward integrating Bitcoin into the US financial system.
Related: Bitcoin at 16: From experiment to trillion-dollar asset
Nakamoto’s legacy: a “cornerstone of economic sovereignty”
“At 50, Nakamoto’s legacy is no longer just code; it’s a cornerstone of economic sovereignty,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.
“Bitcoin’s reserve status signals trust in its scarcity and resilience,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:
“What’s fascinating is the timing. Fifty feels symbolic — half a century of life, mirrored by Bitcoin’s journey from a white paper to a trillion-dollar asset. Nakamoto’s vision of trustless, peer-to-peer money has outgrown its cypherpunk roots, entering the halls of power.”
However, lingering questions about Nakamoto remain unanswered, including whether they still hold the keys to their wallet, which is “a fortune now tied to US policy,” Lian said.
Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension
Is Satoshi Nakamoto wealthier than Bill Gates?
In February, Arkham Intelligence published findings that attribute 1.096 million BTC — then valued at more than $108 billion — to Nakamoto. That would place him above Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the global wealth rankings, according to data shared by Coinbase director Conor Grogan.
Satoshi’s new addresses. Source: Conor Grogan
If accurate, this would make Nakamoto the world’s 16th richest person.
Despite the growing interest in Nakamoto’s identity and holdings, his early decision to remain anonymous and inactive has helped preserve Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos — a principle that continues to define the cryptocurrency to this day.
Magazine: 10 crypto theories that missed as badly as ‘Peter Todd is Satoshi’
The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.
On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.
Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”
Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.
The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.
“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”
Source: Anthony Scaramucci
On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.
Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.
Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks
Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.
Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.
Source: Jeff Dorman
Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.
Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”
Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
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