Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests

Published

3 months ago

December 29, 2024

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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.

While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.

More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.

The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.

According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.

A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.

But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.

Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.

At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.

Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.

Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government

More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.

Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.

The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.

In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.

More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.

‘Uncertain future’

The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.

The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.

If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.

The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.

However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.

And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.

Politics

Stablecoins are the best way to ensure US dollar dominance — Web3 CEO

Published

15 hours ago

April 6, 2025

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Stablecoins are the best way to ensure US dollar dominance — Web3 CEO

Stablecoins are the single best tool for the United States government to maintain the US dollar’s hegemony in global financial markets, according to LayerZero Labs CEO and founder Bryan Pellegrino.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the CEO of LayerZero Labs, which created the LayerZero interoperability protocol recently chosen by Wyoming to be the distribution partner for the Wyoming stablecoin, said that the cross-border accessibility of dollar-pegged tokens makes them an obvious choice to drive US dollar demand. Pellegrino added:

“Stablecoins for the US dollar are the single best tool — the last Trojan Horse or vampire attack on every single other currency in the world — whether it is Argentina, whether it is Venezuela, whether it is all of the countries that have massive inflation.”

The CEO said he expects support for stablecoins on both the federal and state levels to grow because of the obvious boost stablecoins give to the US dollar in foreign exchange markets and the financial moat stablecoin-driven demand will create around the US dollar’s global reserve currency status.

Dollar, US Government, Stablecoin — *Stablecoin market overview. Source:* *RWA.XYZ*

US government looks to stablecoins to protect US dollar

Pellegrino cited Tether’s emerging role as one of the largest buyers of US Treasury bills in the world as evidence of the demand for US debt instruments from stablecoin issuers.

Tether recently became the seventh-largest holder of US Treasuries, beating out Canada, Germany, Norway, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia.

Speaking at the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration would leverage stablecoins to extend US dollar hegemony and indicated this would be a top priority for officials in 2025.

According to a 2023 report from Chainalysis, over 50% of all the digital asset value transferred to countries in the Latin American region, including Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Mexico, and Venezuela was denominated in stablecoins.

The low transaction fees, relative stability, and near-instant settlement times for dollar-pegged stablecoins make these real-world tokenized assets ideal for remittances and stores of value for residents in developing countries suffering from high inflation and capital controls.

Magazine: Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins

Politics

CFPB likely to step back from crypto regulation — Attorney

Published

17 hours ago

April 6, 2025

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CFPB likely to step back from crypto regulation — Attorney

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will likely see a reduced role in crypto regulations as other federal agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and state-level regulators assume a bigger role in crypto policy, according to Ethan Ostroff, partner at the Troutman Pepper Locke law firm.

“I think with the current administration, my sense is, we are highly likely to see a significant pullback by the CFPB in the context of the activity by other regulators,” Ostroff told Cointelegraph in an interview.

State regulators also have the authority under the Consumer Financial Protection Act (CFPA) to assume some of the regulatory roles of the CFPB, the attorney said but also added that some regulatory functions will continue to fall within the purview of the CFPB as a matter of established law.

Ostroff cited the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) and the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) as regulators to keep an eye on as potential leaders of crypto regulations at the state level.

However, the attorney clarified that while the CFPB may see a diminished role during the Trump administration, the agency would not be outright dismantled during the current regime due to “statutorily mandated obligations and requirements” that require acts of Congress to change.

Trump administration targets CFPB in efficiency push

The Trump administration targeted the CFPB as part of a broader push by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to slash government spending and reduce the federal debt.

Russell Vought, the recently appointed head of the CFPB, announced major funding cuts to the agency and scaled back operations within days of assuming the helm at the CFPB in February 2025.

Bitcoin Regulation, US Government, United States, Donald Trump — *Source:* *Russell Vought*

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Elon Musk for dismantling the CFPB, which the US senator co-founded back in 2007.

Warren characterized Musk as a “bank robber” and claimed that the Trump administration dismantled the CFPB to undo consumer protection rules and have greater control over the financial system.

In a February 12 interview with Mother Jones, the senator stressed that the Executive Branch of government does not have the statutory authority to fully dismantle the CFPB, which can only be done through Congressional approval.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Politics

Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing $2.5 billion in repayments

Published

24 hours ago

April 6, 2025

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Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing .5 billion in repayments

Nearly 400,000 creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX risk missing out on $2.5 billion in repayments after failing to begin the mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) verification process.

Roughly 392,000 FTX creditors have failed to complete or at least take the first steps of the mandatory Know Your Customer verification, according to an April 2 court filing in the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

FTX users originally had until March 3 to begin the verification process to collect their claims.

“If a holder of a claim listed on Schedule 1 attached thereto did not commence the KYC submission process with respect to such claim on or prior to March 3, 2025, at 4:00 pm (ET) (the “KYC Commencing Deadline”), 2 such claim shall be disallowed and expunged in its entirety,” the filing states.

Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing $2.5 billion in repayments — *FTX court filing. Source:* *Bloomberglaw.com*

The KYC deadline has been extended to June 1, 2025, giving users another chance to verify their identity and claim eligibility. Those who fail to meet the new deadline may have their claims permanently disqualified.

According to the court documents, claims under $50,000 could account for roughly $655 million in disallowed repayments, while claims over $50,000 could amount to $1.9 billion — bringing the total at-risk funds to more than $2.5 billion.

The next round of FTX creditor repayments is set for May 30, 2025, with over $11 billion expected to be repaid to creditors with claims of over $50,000.

Under FTX’s recovery plan, 98% of creditors are expected to receive at least 118% of their original claim value in cash.

How FTX users can complete KYC

Many FTX users have reported problems with the KYC process.

However, users who were unable to submit their KYC documentation can resubmit their application and restart the verification process, according to an April 5 X post from Sunil, FTX creditor and Customer Ad-Hoc Committee member.

Impacted users should email FTX support (support@ftx.com) to receive a ticket number, then log in to the support portal, create an account, and re-upload the necessary KYC documents.

FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary, FTX Digital Markets, processed the first round of repayments in February, distributing $1.2 billion to creditors.

The crypto industry is still recovering from the collapse of FTX and more than 130 subsidiaries launched a series of insolvencies that led to the industry’s longest-ever crypto winter, which saw Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom out at around $16,000.

While not a “market-moving catalyst” in itself, the beginning of the FTX repayments is a positive sign for the maturation of the crypto industry, which may see a “significant portion” reinvested into cryptocurrencies, Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.