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British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.

In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.

August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.

The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.

All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.

Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.

Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.

The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.

The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.

We all know there is not going to be one for years.

Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.

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Party leaders’ Christmas messages

Picture is not cheering for established parties

What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.

Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.

Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.

The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister's Questions at the Houses of Parliament. Picture date: Wednesday December 18, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS PMQs. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?

The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.

On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.

Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.

Mr Farage speaks at a Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters

Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.

The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.

Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA

Reform is splitting the right-of-centre vote

Reform UK claimed last week to have several thousand more members registered than the Conservative Party’s official figure of 131,680 – a ticker on their official website is keeping count.

The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.

In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.

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‘Something remarkable’ about Gen Z

Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform

Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.

The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.

Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.

Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference.
Pic: PA
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Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA


Reform also targeting Labour voters

There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.

So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.

While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.

Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.

A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency

Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.

It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.

2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

London and the UK’s leading status in the global financial system is “fragile”, the boss of Goldman Sachs has warned, as the government grapples with a tough economy.

Speaking ahead of a meeting with the prime minister, David Solomon – chairman and chief executive of the huge US investment bank – told Sky News presenter Wilfred Frost’s The Master Investor Podcast of several concerns related to tax and regulation.

He urged the government not to push people and business away through poor policy that would damage its primary aim of securing improved economic growth, arguing that European rivals were currently proving more attractive.

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He said: “The financial industry is still driven by talent and capital formation. And those things are much more mobile than they were 25 years ago.

“London continues to be an important financial centre. But because of Brexit, because of the way the world’s evolving, the talent that was more centred here is more mobile.

“We as a firm have many more people on the continent. Policy matters, incentives matter.

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“I’m encouraged by some of what the current government is talking about in terms of supporting business and trying to support a more growth oriented agenda.

“But if you don’t set a policy that keeps talent here, that encourages capital formation here, I think over time you risk that.”

He had a stark warning about the recent reversal of the “Non Dom” tax policy, which occurred across both the prior Conservative government and the current Labour government, which has played a part in some senior Goldman partners relocating away from London.

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Chancellor will not be drawn on wealth tax

Richard Gnodde, one of the bank’s vice-chairs, left for Milan earlier this year.

“Incentives matter if you create tax policy or incentives that push people away, you harm your economy,” Mr Solomon continued.

“If you go back, you know, ten years ago, I think we probably had 80 people in Paris. You know, we have 400 people in Paris now… And so in Goldman Sachs today, if you’re in Europe, you can live in London, you can live in Paris, you can live in Germany, in Frankfurt or Munich, you can live in Italy, you can live in Switzerland.

“And we’ve got, you know, real offices. You just have to recognise talent is more mobile.”

Goldman is understood to have about 6,000 employees in the UK.

Rachel Reeves is currently seeking ways to fill a black hole in the public finances and has refused to rule out wealth taxes at the next budget.

Mr Solomon expressed sympathy for her as her tears in parliament earlier this month led to speculation about the pressure of the job.

“I have sympathy, I have empathy not just for the chancellor, but for anyone who’s serving in one of these governments,” he said, referring to the turbulent political landscape globally.

Commenting on the chancellor’s Mansion House speech last week, he added: “The chancellor spoke here about regulation, she’s talking about regulation not just for safety and soundness, but also for growth.

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Takeaways from chancellor’s Mansion House speech

“And now we have to see the action steps that actually follow through and encourage that.”

One area he was particularly keen to see follow through from her Mansion House speech was ringfencing – the post financial crisis regulation that requires banks to separate their retail activities from their investment banking activities.

“It’s a place where the UK is an outlier, and by being an outlier, it prevents capital formation and growth.

“What’s the justification for being an outlier? Why is this so difficult to change? It’s hard to make a substantive policy argument that this is like a great policy for the UK. So why is it so hard to change?”

The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost is available across multiple podcast platforms

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Two hour screen time limit and curfews for children being considered by government

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Two hour screen time limit and curfews for children being considered by government

Social media limits for children are being planned by the government to tackle “compulsive” screen time, the technology secretary has told Sky News. 

Peter Kyle said he was concerned about “the overall amount of time kids spend on these apps” as well as the content they see.

A two-hour cap per platform is being seriously considered after meetings with current and former employees of tech companies. A night-time or school-time curfew has also been discussed.

Children would be blocked from accessing apps such as TikTok or Snapchat once they have hit the limit, rather than just reminded of how long they have been scrolling, it is understood.

An announcement on screen time is expected this autumn.

Mr Kyle said: “I’ll be making an announcement on these things in the near future. But I am looking very carefully about the overall time kids spend on these apps.

“I think some parents feel a bit disempowered about how to actually make their kids healthier online.

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“I think some kids feel that sometimes there is so much compulsive behaviour with interaction with the apps they need some help just to take control of their online lives and those are things I’m looking at really carefully.

“We talk a lot about a healthy childhood offline. We need to do the same online. I think sleep is very important, to be able to focus on studying is very important.”

Charlotte, 17, said she believes there needs to be 'harsher controls'
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Charlotte, 17, said she believes there needs to be ‘harsher controls’

He added that he wanted to stop children spending hours viewing content which “isn’t criminal, but it’s unhealthy, the overuse of some of these apps”.

“I think we can incentivise the companies and we can set a slightly different threshold that will just tip the balance in favour of parents not always being the ones who are just ripping phones out of the kids’ hands and having a really awkward, difficult conversation around it,” he added.

Mr Kyle spoke exclusively to Sky News after meeting with a group of pupils from Darlington who have spent a year participating in regular focus groups about smartphones and social media, organised by their Labour MP Lola McEvoy.

The tech secretary is considering limiting screen time to two hours
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The tech secretary is considering limiting screen time to two hours

They took part in a survey of 1,000 children from the town, mostly aged 14 and 15, which found that 40% of them spent at least six hours a day online. One in five spent as long as eight hours scrolling.

Most of the under-16s (55%) had seen inappropriate sexual or violent content – often unprompted. And three-quarters of the under-16s had been contacted online by strangers.

In the session in parliament, in which the children were asked what they were most concerned about, Jacob, 15, said: “A lack of restrictions on screen time I would personally say, which leads to people scrolling for hours on Tiktok.

“People just glue their eyes to their phone and just spent hours on it, instead of seeing the real world.”

Tom, 17, said: “I get the feeling you have to be quite tech savvy to protect your kids online. You have to go into the settings and work out each one. It should be the default. It needs to be straight away, day one.”

Matthew, 15, said: “I think because everybody is online all the time and there’s no real moderation to what people can say or what can be shared, it can really affect people’s lives because it’s always there.

“As soon as I wake up, I check my phone and until I go to bed. The only time I take a break is when I eat or am talking to someone.”

Some of the teenagers had spent 12 or even up to 16 hours a day online.

MP Lola McEvoy has been holding focus groups with teens to find out how severe the issue is
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MP Lola McEvoy has been holding focus groups with teens to find out how severe the issue is

Nathan, 15, said: “When, for example, a 13-year-old is on their phone ’til midnight, you can’t sleep, your body can’t function properly and your mind is all over the place.”

But there was scepticism about what could be done.

Charlotte, 17, said: “If your parents sets a restriction on Instagram and say, ‘right, you’re coming off it now’ – there’s TikTok, there is Pinterest, there is Facebook, there’s Snapchat, there so many different other ones, you can go on, and it just builds up and builds and builds up, and you end up sat there for the entire evening just on social media. I think we need harsher controls.”

Several of the pupils who met Mr Kyle detailed being contacted by adult strangers, either on social media apps or online gaming, in ways which made them feel uncomfortable.

How could the ban actually work?

Mickey Carroll

Science and technology reporter

The tech already exists to make a ban like this a reality.

On Friday, rules will start being enforced in the UK that will mean sites hosting harmful adult content will need to properly check the ages of their users.

There are a number of ways companies could do that, including credit card checks, ID checks and AI facial age estimation.

It is likely these are the same systems that would be used to keep teenagers off social media during certain hours, as suggested by Peter Kyle to Sky News.

It’s how Australia is looking into enforcing its total ban of under-16s on social media later this year – but the process isn’t without controversy.

Concerns around privacy are frequently raised as internet users worry about big tech companies storing even more of their personal data.

There are also questions about just how effective these age verification processes could actually be.

Tech like AI facial estimation can reliably age-check users – but teenagers may quickly work out how to circumvent the system using plugins and settings that could be a mystery to all but the savviest parents.

At the moment, a lot of age-checking AI systems are trained to spot the difference between an adult and a child, and can do that to a high degree of accuracy.

But while telling the visual difference between a 15-year-old and a 17-year-old is much harder, AI learns fast.

Officials working on the UK’s age verification scheme have suggested AI will soon be able to accurately verify the ages of under-18s, making a ban like this much more realistic.

Mr Kyle said: “It is madness, it is total madness, and many of the apps or the companies have taken action to restrict contacts that adults – particularly strangers – have with children, but we need to go further and I accept that.

“At the moment, I think the balance is tipped slightly in the wrong direction. Parents don’t feel they have the skills, the tools or the ability to really have a grip on the childhood experience online, how much time, what they’re seeing, they don’t feel that kids are protected from unhealthy activity or content when they are online.”

The tech secretary is in the process of implementing the 2023 Online Safety Act, passed by the previous government.

From this Friday, all platforms must introduce stronger protections for children online, including a legal requirement for all pornography sites accessed in the UK to have effective age verification in place – such as facial age estimation or ID checks.

Briony and Matthew took part in the group
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Briony and Matthew took part in the group

Mr Kyle added: “I don’t just want the base level set where kids aren’t being criminally exploited and damaged, that shouldn’t be the height of our aspirations. The height of our aspirations should be a healthy experience.”

Labour MP Lola McEvoy, who organised the focus group, said: “I knew things were bad online for children and young people but their testimony revealed the extent of explicit, disturbing and toxic content that is now the norm.

“Their articulation of the changes they wanted to see was excellent and they’ve done our town and their generation proud.”

Tiktok, Pinterest, Meta and Snapchat were contacted for comment, but none provided an on the record statement. The companies have accounts for under-16s with parental controls and some set reminders for screen time.

TikTok has a 60-minute daily screen time limit for under-18s after which they must enter a password to continue, and a reminder to switch off at 10pm. The company say this is to support a healthy relationship with screen time.

Pinterest have supported phone-free policies at schools, in the US and Canada and say they are looking to expand this elsewhere.

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UK to ban public sector from making ransomware payments

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UK to ban public sector from making ransomware payments

UK to ban public sector from making ransomware payments

The UK will prohibit its public sector, such as its health service and local councils, from paying ransomware in a bid to “smash the cyber criminal business model.”

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