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British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.

In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.

August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.

The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.

All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.

Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.

Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.

The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.

The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.

We all know there is not going to be one for years.

Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.

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Party leaders’ Christmas messages

Picture is not cheering for established parties

What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.

Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.

Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.

The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister's Questions at the Houses of Parliament. Picture date: Wednesday December 18, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS PMQs. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?

The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.

On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.

Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.

Mr Farage speaks at a Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters

Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.

The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.

Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA

Reform is splitting the right-of-centre vote

Reform UK claimed last week to have several thousand more members registered than the Conservative Party’s official figure of 131,680 – a ticker on their official website is keeping count.

The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.

In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.

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‘Something remarkable’ about Gen Z

Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform

Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.

The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.

Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.

Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference.
Pic: PA
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Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA


Reform also targeting Labour voters

There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.

So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.

While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.

Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.

A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency

Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.

It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.

2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao will begin advising the Kyrgyz Republic on blockchain and crypto-related regulation and tech after signing a memorandum of understanding with the country’s foreign investment agency.

“I officially and unofficially advise a few governments on their crypto regulatory frameworks and blockchain solutions for gov efficiency, expanding blockchain to more than trading,” the crypto entrepreneur said in an April 3 X post, adding that he finds this work “extremely meaningful.”

His comments came in response to an earlier X post from Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Zhaparov announcing that Kyrgyzstan’s National Investment Agency (NIA) had signed a memorandum with CZ to provide technical expertise and consulting services for the Central Asian country.

The NIA is responsible for promoting foreign investments and assisting international companies in identifying business opportunities within the country.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Source: Changpeng Zhao

“This cooperation marks an important step towards strengthening technological infrastructure, implementing innovative solutions, and preparing highly qualified specialists in blockchain technologies, virtual asset management, and cybersecurity,” Zhaparov said.

The Kyrgyzstan president added: “such initiatives are crucial for the sustainable growth of the economy and the security of virtual assets, ultimately generating new opportunities for businesses and society as a whole.”

Kyrgyzstan, which officially changed its name from the Republic of Kyrgyzstan to the Kyrgyz Republic in 1993, is a mountainous, land-locked country.

It is considered well-suited for crypto mining operations due to its abundant renewable energy resources, much of which is underutilized.

Over 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s total energy supply comes from hydroelectric power plants, but only 10% of the country’s potential hydropower has been developed, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.

CZ has met with several other state officials in Asia

Malaysia also recently tapped CZ for guidance on crypto-related matters, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meeting him personally in January.

CZ has also met with officials in the UAE and Bitcoin-stacking country Bhutan — however, it isn’t clear what those meetings entailed.

Related: Is Bitcoin’s future in circular economies or national reserves?

CZ’s latest pursuits come a little over six months after he was released from a four-month prison sentence in the US for violating several anti-money laundering laws.

Since being released, CZ has made investments in blockchain tech, artificial intelligence and biotechnology companies.

CZ also recently donated 1,000 BNB (BNB) — worth almost $600,000 — to support earthquake relief efforts in Thailand and Myanmar after the natural disaster in late April.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Trump has acted for his country, I will act in Britain’s interests, says Starmer

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Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Donald Trump has acted for his country and I will act in Britain’s interests, Sir Keir Starmer has said after the US president imposed 10% tariffs on UK goods.

The prime minister told business chiefs at an early morning meeting in Downing Street: “Last night the president of the United States acted for his country, and that is his mandate.

“Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.”

Politics latest: Starmer says UK will react to tariffs with ‘cool and calm head’

Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, with the UK getting off relatively lightly with 10% tariffs – branded “kind reciprocal” by the president – compared with China, which will have to pay 54% tariffs and 20% for the EU.

A previously announced 25% tariff on British car imports to the US came into effect at 5am on Thursday.

Sir Keir said the government is moving “to the next stage of our plan” after negotiations failed to fend off any tariffs ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.

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He promised any decisions “will be guided only by our national interest, in the interests of our economy, in the interests of businesses around this table, in the interests of putting money in the pockets of working people”.

Keir Starmer hosts a meeting with business leaders in 10 Downing Street following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
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Sir Keir Starmer hosted business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street

“Clearly, there will be an economic impact from the decisions the US has taken, both here and globally,” he told the business leaders.

“But I want to be crystal clear: we are prepared, indeed one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons on Thursday the government is considering retaliatory measures and requested British businesses let him know what the tariff implications will be for them.

An “indicative list of potential products” that could be targeted was later published, with 8,364 categories covering about 27% of UK imports from the US.

Earlier, Mr Reynolds told Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast his “job is not done” when it comes to negotiating a trade deal

Mr Reynolds refused to say if the tariffs might cause a global recession and said the UK has safeguards in place to ensure it is not flooded with goods that would have gone to other countries.

“We’ll take any powers we need to protect the British people and the British economy from that,” he said.

“What we have directly within our power, alongside that is, of course, the ability to negotiate a better deal in the national interest for the UK. That’s been our approach to date and we’ll continue with that.”

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Moment Trump unveils tariffs chart

UK will be template for other nations’ deals

The business secretary also suggested if the UK is successful in negotiating a deal with the US “there’ll be a template there” for other countries to “resolve some of these issues”.

He reiterated statements he and the PM have made over the past few days as he said: “America is a friend, America’s our principal ally.

“Our relationship is an incredibly strong economic one, but also a security one, a political one as well.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway examines how economies across the world are impacted by tariffs

Government ‘very slow’ to start talks

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sky News the government had been “very slow” to start negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, and they should have started when Mr Trump was elected in November, even though he did not get sworn in until the end of January.

He said the UK being hit by a lower tariff than the EU was “one of the benefits of Brexit”.

However, he said the 25% tariff on car exports to the US is “very, very serious” and the global impact is “bad news for our economy”.

Relief in Westminster – but concessions to Trump to come

It has been quite a rollercoaster for the government, where they went from the hope that they could avoid tariffs, that they could get that economic deal, to the realisation that was not going to happen, and then the anticipation of how hard would the UK be hit.

In Westminster tonight, there is actual relief because the UK is going to have a 10% baseline tariff – but that is the least onerous of all the tariffs we saw President Trump announce.

He held up a chart of the worst offenders, and the UK was well at the bottom of that list.

No 10 sources were telling me as President Trump was in the Rose Garden that while no tariffs are good, and it’s not what they want, the fact the UK has tariffs that are lower than others vindicates their approach.

They say it’s important because the difference between a 20% tariff and a 10% tariff is thousands of jobs.

Where to next? No 10 says it will “keep negotiating, keep cool and calm”, and reiterated Sir Keir Starmer’s desire to “negotiate a sustainable trade deal”.

“Of course want to get tariffs lowered. Tomorrow we will continue with that work,” a source added.

Another source said the 10% tariff shows that “the UK is in the friendlies club, as much as that is worth anything”.

Overnight, people will be number-crunching, trying to work out what it means for the UK. There is a 25% tariff on cars which could hit billions in UK exports, in addition to the blanket 10% tariff.

But despite this being lower than many other countries, GDP will take a hit, with forecasts being downgraded probably as we speak.

I think the government’s approach will be to not retaliate and try to speed up that economic deal in the hope that they can lower the tariffs even further.

There will be concessions. For example, the UK could lower the Digital Services Tax, which is imposed on the UK profits of tech giants. Will they loosen regulation on social media companies or agricultural products?

But for now, there is relief the UK has not been hit as hard as many others.

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Trump’s tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

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Trump's tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

The list has landed.

More than 400 pages of thousands of goods that could be affected by reciprocal tariffs against the US.

Everything from fresh domestic ducks to sea-going dredgers makes the cut; most symbolic, however, are iconic American items like jeans, motorcycles and whiskey.

Would Donald Trump stand for a levy on Levi’s? It’s not the first time this battle has played out.

When the US president announced tariffs on steel and aluminium in his first term, the EU responded with its own – including a symbolic 25% tax on American whiskey.

At the time, the UK, then an EU member, followed suit.

But as the UK tries to carve its own path outside the bloc, vindicated by the baseline 10% tariffs imposed instead of the EU’s rate of 20%, the aim is to avoid retaliation.

The government want us to know “all options are on the table” – but that is not how they want this to play out.

“This is not a short-term tactical exercise,” the prime minister said this morning.

Despite the business secretary’s best efforts during his recent trip to Washington to try to secure a UK tariffs carveout, no deal was reached in time.

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How will tariffs hit working people?

Mr Trump wanted his big bang, board brandishing moment; carveouts for certain countries would have softened the impact of his speech.

But with 90-plus countries on the tariff billboard, how far along the queue is any UK deal?

And how much are we willing to give? Will the sensitive subject of chlorinated chicken be on the table? What of the agreement to cut taxes on big tech companies that Mr Trump wants?

Lots of questions. The day after the surreal night before is too soon to know all the answers, but this is about politics as much as it is about economics.

Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?

As the prime minister launched Labour’s local election campaign in Derbyshire today, he talked about potholes, high streets and school meals. Every question I heard was about tariffs.

Decisions made across the Atlantic are looming large. Tariffs may not directly sway many votes in the local elections, but the consequences for Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom and the amount of money she has to spend, or save, will have an impact before too long.

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