British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.
In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.
August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.
The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.
All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.
Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.
Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.
The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.
The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.
We all know there is not going to be one for years.
Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.
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1:05
Party leaders’ Christmas messages
Picture is not cheering for established parties
What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.
Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.
Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?
The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.
On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.
Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.
Image: Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.
The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.
Image: Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.
In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.
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0:57
‘Something remarkable’ about Gen Z
Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform
Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.
The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.
Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.
Image: Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Reform also targeting Labour voters
There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.
So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.
Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.
A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency
Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.
It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.
2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.
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The UK must rebuild its military and get the whole country ready for war as the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real, a major defence review warns.
It described what might happen should a hostile state start a fight, saying this could include missile strikes against military sites and power stations across the UK, sabotage of railway lines and other critical infrastructure and attacks on the armed forces.
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3:12
PM challenged on NATO, defence and Gaza
In a devastating verdict on the state of Britain’s defences, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) said today’s armed forces are “not currently optimised for warfare”, with inadequate stockpiles of weapons, poor recruitment and crumbling morale.
“The international chessboard has been tipped over,” a team of three experts that led the review wrote in a foreword to their 140-page document.
“In a world where the impossible today is becoming the inevitable tomorrow, there can be no complacency about defending our country.”
Image: British soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade training in North Macedonia. Pic: AP
Sir Keir Starmer, who commissioned the review, described a “new era” of threat that required a “new era for defence and security”.
“Every part of society, every citizen of this country, has a role to play because we have to recognise that things have changed,” the prime minister said.
The review made a list of more than 60 recommendations to enable the UK to “pivot to a new way of war”.
They include:
Increasing the size of the army by 3,000 soldiers to 76,000 troops in the next parliament. The review also aims to boost the “lethality” of the Army ten-fold, using drones and other technology.
A 20% expansion in volunteer reserve forces but only when funding permits and likely not until the 2030s.
Reviving a force of tens of thousands of veterans to fight in a crisis. The government used to run annual training for the so-called Strategic Reserve in the Cold War but that no longer happens.
Embracing new technologies such as artificial intelligence, robots and lasers. The paper said the UK must develop ways to defend against emerging threats such as biological weapons, warning of “pathogens and other weapons of mass destruction”.
The possibility of the UK buying warplanes that could carry American nuclear bombs to bolster the NATO alliance’s nuclear capabilities. The review said: “Defence should commence discussions with the United States and NATO on the potential benefits and feasibility of enhanced UK participation in NATO’s nuclear mission.”
The expansion of a cadet force of children by 30% and offering a “gap year” to people interested in sampling military life.
New investment in long-range weapons, submarines, munitions factories and cyber warfare capabilities.
General Sir Richard Barrons, part of the review team and a former senior military officer, described the vision as “the most profound change” to UK defences in 150 years.
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This includes only a brief mention of bolstering the UK’s ability to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles – a key weakness but one that would be very expensive to fix.
Earlier, Sir Keir said the review was a “blueprint to make Britain safer and stronger, a battle-ready armour-clad nation, with the strongest alliances and the most advanced capabilities, equipped for the decades to come”.
Defence Secretary John Healey, writing in a foreword to the document, said “up to” £1bn would be invested in “homeland air and missile defence” as well as the creation of a new cyber and electromagnetic warfare command.
The review was drawn up with the expectation that defence spending would rise to 2.5% of GDP this parliament – up from around 2.3% now – and then to 3% by 2034. The government has pledged to hit 2.5% by 2027 but is yet to make 3% a cast iron commitment.
The reviewers said their recommendations could be delivered in 10 years if that spending target is reached but they gave a strong signal that they would like this to happen much sooner.
“As we live in such turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster,” the team said.
“The plan we have put forward can be accelerated for either greater assurance or for mobilisation of defence in a crisis.”
The review described the threat posed by Russia as “immediate and pressing”.
It said China, by contrast, is a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.
It pointed to Beijing’s growing missile capability that can reach the UK and said the Chinese military’s nuclear arsenal is expected to double to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
The other two reviewers were Lord George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary, and Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and former foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump.
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The review team warned the post Cold War-era of relative peace has ended and a time of contest, tension and conflict has returned.
Adding to the pressure, the US – by far the most powerful member of the NATO alliance – is focusing more on the threat it sees from China.
“Changes in the strategic context mean that NATO allies may be drawn into war with – or be subject to coercion by – another nuclear armed state,” the review said.
“With the US clear that the security of Europe is no longer its primary international focus, the UK and European allies must step up their efforts”.
The review set out how defence is not only the responsibility of the armed forces because countries – not just the professional military – fight wars.
It said: “Everyone has a role to play and a national conversation on how we do it is required… As the old saying goes, ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’.”
Sky News and Tortoise will launch a new podcast series – The Wargame – on 10 June that simulates a Russian attack on the UK to test Britain’s defences, with former ministers and military chiefs playing the part of the British government.