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British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.

In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.

August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.

The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.

All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.

Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.

Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.

The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.

The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.

We all know there is not going to be one for years.

Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.

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Picture is not cheering for established parties

What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.

Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.

Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.

The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister's Questions at the Houses of Parliament. Picture date: Wednesday December 18, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS PMQs. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?

The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.

On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.

Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.

Mr Farage speaks at a Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters

Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.

The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.

Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA

Reform is splitting the right-of-centre vote

Reform UK claimed last week to have several thousand more members registered than the Conservative Party’s official figure of 131,680 – a ticker on their official website is keeping count.

The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.

In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.

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Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform

Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.

The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.

Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.

Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference.
Pic: PA
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Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA


Reform also targeting Labour voters

There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.

So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.

While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.

Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.

A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency

Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.

It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.

2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.

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Sir Keir Starmer ‘absolutely’ wants Angela Rayner back in cabinet

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Sir Keir Starmer 'absolutely' wants Angela Rayner back in cabinet

Sir Keir Starmer has said he “absolutely” wants Angela Rayner back in his cabinet after she resigned for failing to pay the correct amount of stamp duty.

Speaking from the G20 Summit in South Africa, the prime minister told broadcasters his former deputy is “the best example ever” of social mobility and he is still in touch with her.

Asked if she could make a comeback this side of a general election, Sir Keir said: “I’ve always said I want Angela back. Even back in September at the time I said she is going to be a big voice in the Labour movement.

“Do I want Angela back at some stage? Yes absolutely.

“I think she is the best example ever in the United Kingdom of social mobility – going from a pretty challenging childhood to being deputy prime minister of the United Kingdom. She is the story of social mobility above all other stories.”

Asked if he missed having her around, Sir Keir said: “I’m friends with Angie and I like Angie a lot and we talk a lot. We still do.

“It’s always good to have Angela.”

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Ms Rayner’s meteoric rise to the top of Labour came after she left school aged 16, pregnant and with no qualifications.

She was elected deputy Labour leader by the membership in 2020, and was made deputy prime minister then housing secretary by Sir Keir.

She resigned from all of those positions in September, after it emerged she had not paid the higher rate of stamp duty on a second home she bought in Hove, East Sussex, saving her about £40k.

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Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax

It followed a tearful interview with Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby about the “complex living arrangement” regarding her first home, which was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.

An investigation by the prime minister ethic’s watchdog found she breached the ministerial code by failing to get correct tax advice, but that she acted “with integrity”.

Ms Rayner is still a backbench MP and recently did not rule out a return to the front bench herself – telling the Daily Mirror during a visit to a care centre in her constituency that she had “not gone away”.

Other cabinet ministers have also supported her return.

During the Labour Party Conference a few weeks after she resigned, Health Secretary Wes Streeting paid tribute to her work on the Employment Rights Bill and said Labour “wants her back and needs her back”.

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Rachel Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’ – despite expectation of tax rises in budget

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Rachel Reeves vows to 'grip the cost of living' - despite expectation of tax rises in budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has promised to “grip the cost of living” in the budget next week.

Writing in The Mirror newspaper, she acknowledged that high prices “hit ordinary families most” and that the economy “feels stuck” for too many.

But at the same time, she is expected to raise taxes when she sets out economic policies on 26 November as she seeks to bridge a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.

“Delivering on our promise to make people better off is not possible if we don’t get a grip on inflation,” Ms Reeves wrote in The Sunday Times.

“It is a fundamental precursor to economic growth. It is essential to make families better off and for businesses to thrive.

“There is an urgent need to ease the pressure on households now. It will require direct action by this government to get inflation under control.”

She said reforms would change the welfare system from “trapping millions of people on benefits” to one “designed to help people succeed”.

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Will PM keep his word on taxes?

It comes as the government announced that rail fares will be frozen for the first time in 30 years.

The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.

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Budget jargon explained

And it will save commuters on more expensive routes more than £300 a year.

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Among the rumoured measures in the budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds, which would see more people dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate as their wages go up.

However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Ms Reeves should “have the balls” to admit that such a move would breach Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise taxes on working people.

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Ex-Reform leader in Wales who took pro-Russia bribes ‘can’t besmirch everyone else’, says party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf

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Ex-Reform leader in Wales who took pro-Russia bribes 'can't besmirch everyone else', says party's head of policy Zia Yusuf

Nathan Gill’s actions were “treasonous” but people should not “besmirch everyone else at Reform”, the party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf has said.

Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, was jailed for 10 and a half years last week after he admitted accepting tens of thousands of pounds in cash to make pro-Russian statements to the media and European Parliament.

Asked by Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips if the case showed the party was soft on President Vladimir Putin, Mr Yusuf said that would be an “incredibly unreasonable position to take”.

He said: “Nathan Gill, what he did was treasonous, it was horrific, it was awful. He’s been dealt with by the authorities and he deserves the sentence that he got.”

He added: “As far as we’re concerned he is ancient history. I’ve never met him, I had never heard about him until I saw he was in the newspapers. It is unreasonable to besmirch Reform and the millions of people around the country who support Nigel and support our party.”

Gill, 52, was announced as the leader of Reform UK in Wales in March 2021, but quit the party a few months later after he failed to be elected to the Senedd.

He previously led the Welsh wing of UKIP (UK Independence Party) between 2014 and 2016, then ran by Nigel Farage, and was a member of the Senedd between 2016 and 2017, as well as an MEP between 2014 and 2020.

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Gill left UKIP in 2019 to join Mr Farage’s new Brexit Party – later rebranded as Reform UK.

Former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill. Pic: PA
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Former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill. Pic: PA

Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer demanded an investigation into links between Reform UK and Russia following the case.

Mr Farage’s position on Russia has come under scrutiny in the past. He faced a backlash during the general election campaign when he spoke about the incursion of NATO and how “we provoked this war” in Ukraine.

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Speaking to Trevor Phillips, Mr Yusuf insisted his boss has never supported or been sympathetic to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, saying it is “not Nigel’s position that ‘we provoked the war’.”

He said: “When he [Farage] was pressed as to how he would respond if he was prime minister and Russian jets encroached into NATO airspace, his view was that those planes should be shot down. We are crystal clear about our position.

“I would also say this: the notion that Vladimir Putin, the murderous dictator, is making decisions based on what Nigel Farage is saying here in England, I think is for the birds.

“We are now in a situation where Ukraine’s sovereignty has been violated, and Vladimir Putin needs to be brought to heel.”

But Labour accused Reform of “pandering to Moscow” following the interview.

Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, said Mr Farage has previously called Mr Putin “the leader he most admired and has repeatedly parroted Kremlin talking points”.

She added: “Reform must urgently allow an independent investigation to root out pro-Russia links, to assure the public that Putin holds no sway over their party or its representatives.”

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Police have confirmed Mr Farage has not been part of the investigation into Gill.

Mr Farage said on Friday: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”

The Reform UK MP for Clacton had previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to bribery.

He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.

“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”

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