British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.
In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.
August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.
The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.
All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.
Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.
Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.
The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.
The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.
We all know there is not going to be one for years.
Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.
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Picture is not cheering for established parties
What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.
Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.
Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?
The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.
On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.
Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.
Image: Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.
The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.
Image: Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.
In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.
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Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform
Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.
The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.
Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.
Image: Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Reform also targeting Labour voters
There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.
So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.
Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.
A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency
Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.
It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.
2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.
NHS funding could be linked to patient feedback under new plans, with poorly performing services that “don’t listen” penalised with less money.
As part of the “10 Year Health Plan” to be unveiled next week, a new scheme will be trialled that will see patients asked to rate the service they received – and if they feel it should get a funding boost or not.
It will be introduced first for services that have a track record of very poor performance and where there is evidence of patients “not being listened to”, the government said.
This will create a “powerful incentive for services to listen to feedback and improve patients’ experience”, it added.
Sky News understands that it will not mean bonuses or pay increases for the best performing staff.
NHS payment mechanisms will also be reformed to reward services that keep patients out of hospital as part of a new ‘Year of Care Payments’ initiative and the government’s wider plan for change.
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Speaking to The Times, chief executive of the NHS Confederation Matthew Taylor expressed concerns about the trial.
He told the newspaper: “Patient experience is determined by far more than their individual interaction with the clinician and so, unless this is very carefully designed and evaluated, there is a risk that providers could be penalised for more systemic issues, such as constraints around staffing or estates, that are beyond their immediate control to fix.”
He said that NHS leaders would be keen to “understand more about the proposal”, because elements were “concerning”.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We will reward great patient care, so patient experience and clinical excellence are met with extra cash. These reforms are key to keeping people healthy and out of hospital, and to making the NHS sustainable for the long-term as part of the Plan for Change.”
In the raft of announcements in the 10 Year Health Plan, the government has said 201 bodies responsible for overseeing and running parts of the NHS in England – known as quangos – will be scrapped.
These include Healthwatch England, set up in 2012 to speak out on behalf of NHS and social care patients, the National Guardian’s Office, created in 2015 to support NHS whistleblowers, and the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB).
The head of the Royal College of Nursing described the move as “so unsafe for patients right now”.
Professor Nicola Ranger said: “Today, in hospitals across the NHS, we know one nurse can be left caring for 10, 15 or more patients at a time. It’s not safe. It’s not effective. And it’s not acceptable.
“For these proposed changes to be effective, government must take ownership of the real issue, the staffing crisis on our wards, and not just shuffle people into new roles. Protecting patients has to be the priority and not just a drive for efficiency.”
Elsewhere, the new head of NHS England Sir Jim Mackey said key parts of the NHS appear “built to keep the public away because it’s an inconvenience”.
“We’ve made it really hard, and we’ve probably all been on the end of it,” he told the Daily Telegraph.
“The ward clerk only works nine to five, or they’re busy doing other stuff; the GP practice scrambles every morning.”
Carrie Johnson – the wife of former prime minister Boris Johnson – has revealed she was admitted to hospital with severe dehydration, as she offered advice to other breastfeeding mothers in the hot weather.
Mrs Johnson, 37, posted a picture of herself and her newborn daughter Poppy Eliza Josephine on Friday in a hospital bed.
“Being hospitalised for two nights for severe dehydration was not on my postpartum bingo card,” she captioned the Instagram post.
Mrs Johnson urged other “breastfeeding mums” to make sure they eat and drink enough “in this heat”, especially those who are “clusterfeeding”.
Poppy was born on 21 May, becoming the couple’s fourth child after their son Frank, born in July 2023, daughter Romy, born in December 2021, and son Wilfred, born in April 2020.
Image: Boris Johnson with newborn daughter Poppy Eliza Josephine Johnson. Pic: Carrie Johnson/Instagram
In a separate Instagram story, Mrs Johnson described an “honestly brutal week”.
“Mastitis (me), reflux (her), dehydration (me). What a pair we are!,” she said.
“But thank you for all the kind messages, especially all the brilliant advice on reflux. Really appreciate it and made me feel way less alone going thru (sic) it all. And as ever, thanks to our amazing NHS.”
Image: Carrie and Boris Johnson after his resignation in 2022. Pic: PA
The NHS recommends drinking plenty of fluids while breastfeeding – and avoiding caffeine and alcohol to stop their effects being passed on to the baby.
Having a drink nearby when mothers stop to feed is advised, as is water, lower-fat milk, and low-sugar drinks.
Sir Keir Starmer has said fixing the UK’s welfare system is a “moral imperative” after the government’s U-turn.
The prime minister faced a significant rebellion over plans to cut sickness and disability benefits as part of a package he said would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.
The government has since offered concessions ahead of a vote in the Commons on Tuesday, including exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications.
Speaking at Welsh Labour’s annual conference in Llandudno, North Wales, on Saturday, Sir Keir said: “Everyone agrees that our welfare system is broken, failing people every day.
“Fixing it is a moral imperative, but we need to do it in a Labour way, conference, and we will.”
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Starmer defends welfare U-turn
Sir Keir also warned of a “backroom stitch up” between the Conservatives, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.
He said such a deal would mark a “return to the chaos and division of the last decade”.
But opposition parties have hit back at the prime minister’s “imaginary coalitions”, with Plaid Cymru accusing Labour of “scraping the barrel”.
Reform UK said the NHS “isn’t safe in Labour’s hands” and people are “left waiting in pain” while ministers “make excuses”.
Voters in Wales will head to the polls next May and recent polls suggest Labour are in third place, behind Reform and Plaid.
Labour have been the largest party at every Senedd election since devolution began in 1999.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has not ruled out making deals with Plaid Cymru or Reform at the Senedd election.
At the conference, the prime minister was joined on stage by Wales Secretary Jo Stevens, First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader of Welsh Labour Carolyn Harries.
He described Baroness Morgan as a “fierce champion for Wales” and “the best person to lead Wales into the future”.
Sir Keir said the £80m transition board to support Port Talbot steelworkers after the closure of the plant’s blast furnaces was a result of “two Labour governments working together for the people of Wales”.
He described Nigel Farage as a “wolf in Wall Street clothing” who has “no idea what he’s talking about” on the issue.
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