British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.
In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.
August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.
The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.
All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.
Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.
Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.
The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.
The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.
We all know there is not going to be one for years.
Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.
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Party leaders’ Christmas messages
Picture is not cheering for established parties
What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.
Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.
Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?
The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.
On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.
Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.
Image: Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.
The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.
Image: Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.
In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.
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‘Something remarkable’ about Gen Z
Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform
Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.
The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.
Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.
Image: Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Reform also targeting Labour voters
There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.
So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.
Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.
A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency
Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.
It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.
2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.
After about two weeks of hearing from US government witnesses, Roman Storm’s legal team called Preston Van Loon to the stand to kick off its defense case.
Emmanuel Macron has said France will recognise Palestine as a state later this year.
The French president announced the major change of policy in a letter to the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, which Mr Macron also published online on Thursday evening.
The French leader said he will make the formal announcement at the UN General Assembly, being held in September.
France will become the first G7 member to recognise a Palestinian state.
In his post explaining the decision, Mr Macron called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of the hostages and for much more humanitarian aid to reach those in the territory.
But Israel’s defence minister has called the French decision “a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism”.
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7:41
Sky’s international correspondent John Sparks, reports on the children in Gaza who are experiencing malnutrition, one child wishes for ‘life to go back to how it was.’
The move heaps pressure on France’s allies such as the UK, and Sir Keir Starmer insisted tonight that he is “clear that statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people”.
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But the prime minister has resisted calls from within his own party to recognise Palestine immediately, as he views this as part of the peace process in Gaza.
Currently, half of the G20 recognise Palestine as a state, while nations including the UK, US, Germany and others do not.
But pressure has been growing on Sir Keir to change course, with senior Labour figures including the Mayor of London Sir Sadiq Khan publicly calling for a change in government policy.
Starmer: ‘We are witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe’
Just hours before Mr Macron’s announcement, Sir Keir said he would be holding an “emergency call” with the leaders of France and Germany over what he termed the “humanitarian catastrophe” happening in Gaza.
In some of the firmest language from the government yet, Sir Keir said that “the suffering and starvation unfolding in Gaza is unspeakable and indefensible”.
He went on to say that it has been “grave for some time”, but that it has now “reached new depths and continues to worsen”.
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The PM says that
Sir Keir said: “I will hold an emergency call with E3 partners tomorrow, where we will discuss what we can do urgently to stop the killing and get people the food they desperately need while pulling together all the steps necessary to build a lasting peace.”
The PM added that “we all agree” on the need for Israel to “change course and allow aid that is desperately needed to enter Gaza without delay”.
He wrote: “It is hard to see a hopeful future in such dark times. But I must reiterate my call for all sides to engage in good faith, and at pace, to bring about an immediate ceasefire and for Hamas to unconditionally release all hostages.”
Across the globe, more than 140 countries recognise Palestine as a state.
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