British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.
In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.
August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.
The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.
All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.
Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.
Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.
The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.
The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.
We all know there is not going to be one for years.
Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.
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Party leaders’ Christmas messages
Picture is not cheering for established parties
What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.
Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.
Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?
The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.
On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.
Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.
Image: Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.
The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.
Image: Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.
In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.
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‘Something remarkable’ about Gen Z
Tories don’t know whether to fight or accommodate Reform
Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.
The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.
Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.
Image: Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Reform also targeting Labour voters
There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.
So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.
Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.
A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency
Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.
It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.
2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.
Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.
The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.
Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.
“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”
More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.
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The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.
Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.
Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.
However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.
Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.
Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.
He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.
In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.
In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.
“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.
It was only 10 days ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were “firm in our convictions”.
People on Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and universal credit were too often being “written off”, while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.
After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions.
Ms Kendall’s colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn’t want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.
This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits.
Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which “doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.
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Having rushed forward these reforms to save £5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.
The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it.
But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that’s still an “if'”, with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle – for many MPs at least – goes to the heart of whose side the government is on.
The health secretary has told Sky News the government’s plans to tackle obesity by introducing a health food standard for supermarkets are a “world-first approach” and not “nanny statism”.
As part of an initiative aimed at taking some pressure off the NHS, food retailers and manufacturers will “make the healthy choice the easy choice” for customers in the UK, which has the third-highest adult obesitylevels in Europe.
Supermarkets will be required to report sales data and those that fail to hit targets could face financial penalties, suggested Nesta, the innovation agency which initially developed the policy.
Speaking on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Wes Streeting said: “Instead of traditional nanny statism, where we regulate more heavily on price or marketing on what’s sold, we’re taking a world-first approach, which is working with supermarkets using data they already collect about the nutritional value of their shopping baskets and shopping trolleys, the average shop.
“We’re going to work with them to reduce the amount of unhealthy food in trolleys and baskets by setting targets on the healthy value of your shopping trolleys and baskets.”
He said if obese people cut their calorie intake “by about 216 calories a day – the equivalent of a bottle of fizzy coke, we’d halve obesity”.
“We’ve got one in five kids leaving primary school with obesity, it’s costing the NHS £11bn a year, and obesity has doubled since the 1990s,” he added.
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He also said: “If we reduce calorie intake in this country by just 50 calories a day, that would lift 340,000 children out of obesity.”
Mr Streeting said supermarkets will decide through the combination of where they put their products, how they do price promotions, and what products they choose to put on the shelves.
“They will work with us to make sure that we nudge people in the right direction, without any of us even noticing,” he added.
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Businesses will be free to choose how to implement the new healthy food standard, which aims to make their customers’ average shopping healthier.
Measures could include reformulating products and tweaking recipes, changing shop layouts, offering discounts on healthy foods, or changing loyalty schemes to promote healthier options.
Obesity is one of the root causes of diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
The new scheme, announced on Sunday by the Department for Health and Social Care, is part of the forthcoming 10-Year Health Plan, through which the government is seeking to shift from sickness to prevention to alleviate the burden on the NHS.
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An ‘important step’
Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said: “Businesses can play a major role in supporting people to make healthy choices, and this important step could help to reduce rising obesity rates.
“Being overweight or obese is the second biggest cause of cancer in the UK, and is linked with 13 different types of the disease.
“The UK government must introduce further bold preventative policies in both the upcoming 10-year Health Plan and National Cancer Plan, so that more lives can be saved from cancer.”
Image: Tesco is among the supermarkets which have welcomed the government’s announcement. Pic: iStock
Some of the UK’s biggest supermarkets appear to have reacted positively to plans for a new standard of healthy food, with Ken Murphy, Tesco Group CEO, saying: “All food businesses have a critical part to play in providing good quality, affordable and healthy food.
“At Tesco, we have measured and published our own healthier food sales for a number of years now – we believe it is key to more evidence-led policy and better-targeted health interventions.
“That’s why we have called for mandatory reporting for all supermarkets and major food businesses and why we welcome the government’s announcement on this.
“We look forward to working with them on the detail of the Healthy Food Standard and its implementation by all relevant food businesses.”
Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s, said: “We’re passionate about making good food joyful, accessible and affordable for everyone and have been championing the need for mandatory health reporting, across the food industry for many years.
“Today’s announcement from government is an important and positive step forward in helping the nation to eat well.
“We need a level playing field across the entirety of our food sector for these actions to have a real and lasting impact.”