Unconventional Russian attack could cause ‘substantial’ casualties, top NATO official warns
There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.
James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.
He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.
NATO’s James Appathurai speaking to Sky News security and defence editor Deborah Haynes
There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”
Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.
A Russian soldier fires on a Ukrainian position. Pic: AP
Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”
He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.
“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.
He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.
“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”
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His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.
The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.
The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.
“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.
He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.
“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”
Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.
There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.
The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.
However, the threshold is unclear.
On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.
“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”
World
Charlie Kirk’s widow pays tribute to ‘perfect’ husband and says her cries ‘will echo around the world’
Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, described him as a “perfect” husband and father, and said the “evildoers” who assassinated him have no idea what they have unleashed.
“You have no idea of the fire that you have ignited within this wife, the cries of this widow will echo around the world like a battle cry,” she said on Friday in her first public remarks since the assassination.
“If you thought that my husband’s mission was powerful before, you have no idea, you have no idea what you just have unleashed across this entire country and this world, you have no idea.”
Erika Kirk speaks following her husband’s assassination. Pic: Turning Point USA
Mrs Kirk addressed the public after a silent prayer from the studio where her husband recorded his podcast.
She thanked President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance and his “phenomenal” wife, Usha, for the support, and praised the emergency teams who tried to save her husband’s life.
“Charlie said if he ever ran for office, his top priority would be to revive the American family. That was his priority,” Mrs Kirk said.
“But most of all, Charlie loved his children. And he loved me. With all his heart. And he made sure I knew that every day,” she said.
She called him a “perfect” father and husband, as she held back tears. She also talked about some of his favourite hobbies.
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Vice president JD Vance, his wife Usha, and Erika Kirk exit Air Force Two together. Pic: Reuters
Mrs Kirk said the campus tour that his organisation, Turning Point USA, had started will continue – and urged young people to join her late husband’s political movement.
“I promise I will never let your legacy die,” she said, addressing her husband, vowing to make his movement the “biggest thing this nation has ever seen”.
Mrs Kirk says she doesn’t remember the last time she slept, and shared a story about their daughter when she ran into her arms and asked: “Where’s daddy?”
“What do you tell a three-year-old?”
Mrs Kirk finished her remarks, speaking directly to her husband: “I can’t wait to see you again one day.”
“God bless you all, and may God bless America,” she said as she wrapped up her speech.
World
UK joins NATO operation to bolster Europe’s eastern flank after Russian drone incursions into Poland
NATO is to bolster Europe’s eastern flank, including the use of UK military resources, after Russia’s “reckless and unacceptable” violation of Polish airspace.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ on Friday, involving the deployment of equipment on the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression.
Poland shot down Russian drones which flew over the country on Wednesday, something the military alliance has portrayed as an attempt by Moscow to test NATO’s military response.
It underlines long-held concerns about the potential expansion of Russia’s three-year war in Ukraine.
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Russia said its drones went astray because they were jammed, but European leaders believe the incursions were a deliberate provocation by Russia.
“It’s reckless and unacceptable. We can’t have Russian drones entering allied airspace,” Mr Rutte told a news conference.
Mark Rutte described Russian drones entering Polish airspace as ‘reckless’. Pic: Reuters
He added that allies, including the UK, France, Germany and Denmark, have so far committed to the mission with others set to join.
In a statement, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said: “The UK is fully committed to playing our part in NATO’s Eastern Sentry following the reckless and dangerous airspace violations by Russia”. It added that the details of the UK’s contribution would be announced soon.
Yvette Cooper visited Ukraine on Friday, her first visit to the country since becoming foreign secretary after a cabinet shake-up by Sir Keir Starmer.
Ms Cooper described her trip, which included a meeting with the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as a demonstration of solidarity with Ukraine.
“The UK will not stand idly by as Putin continues his barbaric invasion of Ukraine,” Ms Cooper said, noting what she said was the Russian president’s “complete disregard for sovereignty” by sending drones into NATO airspace.
Yvette Cooper met Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Friday. Pic: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Pic: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Prince Harry also made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Friday, where he met with wounded service members.
NATO already has substantial forces in eastern Europe, including thousands of troops, but the alliance did not explain how many additional forces would be involved in the new operation.
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Speaking at the alliance’s Brussels headquarters, US General Alexus Grynkewich told reporters the additional resources will enable the alliance to “plug gaps in the line” and concentrate forces wherever they’re needed while improving communications across NATO’s entire eastern flank.
NATO detailed a modest number of additional military assets – including two F-16 fighter jets and a frigate from Denmark, three Rafale fighter jets from France and four Eurofighter jets from Germany.
The announcement also coincided with a joint military exercise involving thousands of Russian and Belarusian troops, which began on Friday.
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Meanwhile, new measures were announced by the UK against Russia on Friday.
They included bans on 70 vessels the UK says are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that transports Russian oil in defiance of sanctions.
Some 30 individuals and companies – including Chinese and Turkey-based firms – were also sanctioned for their part in supplying Russia with electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapons components.
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Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, dismissed Donald Trump’s suggestion that the drone incursion into Poland may have been “a mistake”.
“We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake,” Mr Tusk wrote on X. “But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
US-led efforts to steer Moscow and Kyiv toward a peace settlement have so far failed to progress.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said talks to end the war were currently on “pause” even though channels of communication remain open.
Thousands of troops are taking part in a joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus, as tensions with the EU run high following a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace earlier this week.
The Zapad joint military exercise which began on Friday will involve drills in both Russia and Belarus as well as in the Baltic and Barents seas, the Russian defence ministry said.
Belarusian defence officials initially said about 13,000 troops would participate in the drill, but in May, its defence ministry said that would be cut nearly in half.
It comes just two days after Poland, with support from its NATO allies, shot down Russian drones over its airspace.
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Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday morning hit back at a suggestion by US President Donald Trump on Thursday that the incursion may have been a “mistake”.
He said in a post on X: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time of the incursions and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland.
Friday also saw Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper travelling to Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv on the same day the UK announced fresh sanctions against Moscow.
Prince Harry was also in Kyiv for a surprise visit to help with the recovery of military personnel seriously injured in the three-year war with Russia.
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Prince Harry arrives in Kyiv
Ms Cooper, who was appointed foreign secretary last week, posted about her visit on X saying: “The UK’s support for Ukraine is steadfast. I am pleased to be in Kyiv on my first visit as Foreign Secretary.”
The UK’s new sanctions include bans on 70 vessels that Britain says are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that transports Russian oil in defiance of sanctions already in place.
Yvette Cooper with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Pic: Valentyn Ogirenko/PA
Some 30 individuals and companies – including Chinese and Turkey-based firms – have also been sanctioned for their part in supplying Russia with electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapons components.
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Meanwhile on the frontline, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s oil-loading Primorsk port overnight, an SBU official said.
The attack caused fires and suspended oil-loading operations, the official added.
Russian defence systems also intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian drones overnight.
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