Unconventional Russian attack could cause ‘substantial’ casualties, top NATO official warns
There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.
James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.
He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.
NATO’s James Appathurai speaking to Sky News security and defence editor Deborah Haynes
There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”
Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.
A Russian soldier fires on a Ukrainian position. Pic: AP
Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”
He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.
“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.
He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.
“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”
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His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.
The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.
The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.
“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.
He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.
“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”
Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.
There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.
The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.
However, the threshold is unclear.
On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.
“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”
Donald Trump has said there is a “good chance” of peace between Russia and Ukraine – but added the US has a red line in upcoming talks.
After a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin, the US president announced on Monday that Russia–Ukraine discussions will begin “immediately”.
It is unclear how these will differ from negotiations that already started in Turkey last Friday.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office later on Monday, Mr Trump said he does have a red line on when he’ll stop pushing Moscow and Kyiv for peace – but would not say what it is.
There are “big egos involved”, he said before adding: “This was a European situation, it should have remained a European situation.”
The US president also claimed he asked Mr Putin on their call: “When are we going to end this bloodbath?”
He said of the Russian president: “I do believe he wants to end [the war].”
“My whole life is deals, one big deal, and if I thought that President Putin did not want to get this over with, I wouldn’t even be talking about it because I’d just pull out,” he added.
The US president spoke to his Russian counterpart on Monday as part of a bid to push the two countries towards agreeing a truce in the war.
Donald Trump speaking in the Oval Office on Monday. Pic: AP
In a Truth Social post, published shortly after the call, Mr Trump said Russia and Ukraine “will immediately start negotiations towards a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war”.
Mr Trump continued: “Russia wants to do large-scale trade with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree.
“There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is unlimited.”
Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Moscow last week. Pic: AP
Ukraine “can be a great beneficiary on trade, in the process of rebuilding its country”, he said.
The Vatican “has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations”, Mr Trump added. He signed off his post with: “Let the process begin!”
Mr Putin found the call “informative, frank and very useful”, Russian news agency RIA reported.
“A ceasefire in the situation in Ukraine for a certain period of time is possible if appropriate agreements are reached,” the Russian leader reportedly said.
Discussions are ‘positive,’ says Zelenskyy
The US president spoke separately to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and various European leaders.
At a briefing after the day’s calls had taken place, Ukraine’s leader said he told Mr Trump that Russia “might propose some particularly difficult conditions” for a ceasefire – which could be “a sign that it is the Russian side that is unwilling to end the war”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to reporters after his own call with Mr Trump. Pic: Reuters
“I think we are still discussing the very possibility of strong and severe sanctions [on Russia],” he continued. “I don’t yet have an answer to that question.”
Kyiv is considering the possibility of a meeting between “high-level” teams from Ukraine, the US, Russia and some European countries, Mr Zelenskyy said, describing the talks on Monday as “positive”.
He continued: “Such a meeting could take place in Turkey, the Vatican, or Switzerland. We are currently considering these three venues, as all three countries – all three venues – are neutral.”
European leaders and Ukraine have demanded Russia agree to a ceasefire immediately, and Mr Trump has focused on getting Mr Putin to commit to a 30-day truce. The Russian president has resisted that, insisting that conditions be met first.
The Trump-Putin call came as Russia has continued to target Ukraine with attacks.
Moscow on Monday claimed its forces have taken two villages in Ukraine, according to state news agency RIA.
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Russia recently began pushing into the Sumy region after claiming it had ousted Kyiv’s forces from Russia’s neighbouring Kursk region.
RIA cited the defence ministry as saying Novoolenivka, in the eastern Donetsk region, and Marine, in Sumy, have now been taken by Russian forces.
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Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 112 drones over various parts of the country overnight, killing two people and leaving another 13 injured.
On Sunday, Kyiv officials said Russia had launched the largest drone attack of the war so far by firing 273 explosives into Ukraine over the course of Saturday night into the following morning.
Israel has said it will allow a “basic quantity of food” into the besieged enclave of Gaza to avoid a “starvation crisis” following a near three-month blockade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the decision was “based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas“.
Gaza, where local authorities say more than 53,000 people have died in Israel’s 19-month campaign, has been under a complete blockade on humanitarian aid since 2 March.
It comes as global food security experts warn of famine across the territory and after a UN-backed report from last Monday which warned one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.
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The statement from the prime minister’s office said it would “allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip”.
“Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas,” it added.
“Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”
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It comes after a British surgeon working in Gaza said in a video to Sky News the enclave is now “a slaughterhouse” amid Israeli bombardment.
Israel has just ramped up its offensive in Gaza – where it’s been conducting a military campaign in retaliation for 1,200 people killed and 251 taken hostage by Hamas on 7 October 2023 – with Palestinian health officials reporting at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed troops had begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
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In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
Israel has launched an escalation to increase pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
Pro-Western candidate Nicusor Dan has unexpectedly beaten hard-right populist George Simion in the Romanian presidential election.
Mr Simion, 38, and his rival – a centrist who’s mayor of Bucharest – faced off in the second round of the contest.
According to the official tally, Mr Dan was leading by nearly nine percentage points with more than 98% of the votes counted.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Dan and his supporters celebrated the exit polls. Pic: Reuters
After exit polls suggested he wasn’t going to win, Trump-supporting Mr Simion rejected the result and said estimates put him 400,000 votes ahead.
Speaking after voting ended, Mr Simion said his election was “clear” as he posted on Facebook: “I won!!! I am the new President of Romania and I am giving back the power to the Romanians!”
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Romania’s last election was annulled after its highest court ruled the leading candidate, nationalist Calin Georgescu, should be disqualified due to claims of electoral interference by Russia.
The result is surprising because in the first round, 38-year-old Mr Simion, founder of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), took 40.96% of the vote – almost 20 points ahead.
George Simion rejected the polls but official counting saw him slip behind. Pic: Reuters
Supporters of Mr Dan celebrated on the streets of the capital Bucharest. Pic: AP
An opinion poll on Friday had it much closer, but still suggested the two men were virtually tied.
Mr Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, is running as an independent and has pledged to clamp down on corruption.
He is also staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security.
When voting closed at 9pm local time, 11.6 million people – about 64% of eligible voters – had cast ballots. About 1.64 million Romanians living abroad also took part.
About 11.6 million people – 64% of eligible voters – cast ballots. Pic: AP
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The election is being closely watched across Europe amid a rise of support for President Donald Trump.
After polls closed, Mr Dan said “elections are not about politicians” but about communities and that in the latest vote “a community of Romanians has won, a community that wants a profound change in Romania”.
“When Romania goes through difficult times, let us remember the strength of this Romanian society,” he said.
“There is also a community that lost today’s elections. A community that is rightly outraged by the way politics has been conducted in Romania up to now.”
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