Unconventional Russian attack could cause ‘substantial’ casualties, top NATO official warns
There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.
James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.
He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.
NATO’s James Appathurai speaking to Sky News security and defence editor Deborah Haynes
There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”
Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.
A Russian soldier fires on a Ukrainian position. Pic: AP
Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”
He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.
“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.
He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.
“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”
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How will Ukraine war change in 2025?
His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.
The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.
The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.
“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.
He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.
“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”
Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.
There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.
The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.
However, the threshold is unclear.
On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.
“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”
Donald Trump has claimed Russia is “making concessions” in talks to end the Ukraine war – and that Kyiv is “happy” with how talks are progressing.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he flew out to his Florida estate for Thanksgiving, Mr Trump said “we’re making progress” on a deal and said he would be willing to meet with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy once they are close to an agreement.
He also said his previously announced deadline of Thursday, which is Thanksgiving, was no longer in place – and that the White House’s initial 28-point peace plan, which sparked such concern in Kyiv, “was just a map”.
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on aboard Air Force One during travel to Palm Beach, Florida, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., Nov
Asked if Ukraine had been asked to hand over too much territory, Mr Trump suggested that “over the next couple of months [that] might be gotten by Russia anyway”.
Moscow’s concessions are a promise to stop fighting, “and they don’t take any more land”, he said.
“The deadline for me is when it’s over,” he added. “And I think everybody’s tired of fighting at this moment.”
Read more: A plan with Russian fingerprints all over it
Before boarding the plane, Mr Trump claimed only a few “points of disagreement” remain between the two sides.
Mr Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff will be meeting with Mr Putin in Moscow next week, the president said, while American army secretary Daniel Driscoll is due to travel to Kyiv for talks this week.
The chief of Ukraine’s presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote: “Ukraine has never been and will never be an obstacle to peace. We are grateful to the US for all its support.
“The meeting between the presidents will be thoroughly and promptly prepared on our part.”
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‘Ukraine still needs defence support,’ says Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy warns against ‘behind our back’ deal
Yesterday, a virtual “coalition of the willing” meeting that featured Ukraine’s allies took place, which was attended by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In a speech, Mr Zelenskyy told attendees: “We firmly believe security decisions about Ukraine must include Ukraine, security decisions about Europe must include Europe.
“Because when something is decided behind the back of a country or its people, there is always a high risk it simply won’t work.”
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What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A joint statement from coalition leaders Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz said they had agreed with Mr Rubio “to accelerate joint work” with the US on the planning of security guarantees for Ukraine.
But a Ukrainian diplomat has warned major sticking points remain in the peace deal being thrashed out – primarily the prospect of territorial concessions.
A warning from the Kremlin
Meanwhile, Moscow has stressed that it will not allow any agreement to stray too far from its own objectives.
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned any amended peace plan must reflect the understanding reached between Mr Trump and Mr Putin over the summer.
“If the spirit and letter of Anchorage is erased in terms of the key understandings we have established then, of course, it will be a fundamentally different situation,” he said, referring to the two leaders’ meeting in Alaska.
Read more:
Zelenskyy races to beat Trump’s peace plan deadline
In full: Europe’s 28-point counterproposal
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Standing ovation for Zelenskyy
As negotiations continue, so have Russian attacks, with Kyiv hit by a barrage of missiles and hundreds of drones early yesterday morning.
Seven people were killed with power and heating systems disrupted, as residents sheltered underground.
Meanwhile, three people died and homes were damaged after Ukraine launched an attack on southern Russia.
‘A critical juncture’
French President Emmanuel Macron has said peace efforts are gathering momentum, but “are clearly at a critical juncture”.
And during the annual White House turkey pardon ahead of Thanksgiving, Mr Trump told reporters: “I think we’re getting close to a deal. We’ll find out.
“I thought that would have been an easier one, but I think we’re making progress.”
In this story, there’s no substitute for hard news.
To learn of US envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian interactions is to understand the handbrake turn towards Moscow.
If there was much surprise and confusion about the origins of a peace proposal that had Russian fingerprints all over it, there is less now.
The Bloomberg report of Witkoff’s recent involvement distills eye-watering detail of his contact with Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s senior adviser on foreign policy.
Among the revelations, it tells of the American advising the Russian on dealing with Trump.
In a phone call last month, Witkoff told Ushakov that Zelenskyy was coming to visit the White House, and suggested Putin speak to Trump beforehand.
Witkoff reportedly said: “The president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal.”
He spoke of Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan and suggested that “maybe we do the same thing with you”.
Read more:
Who actually wrote Trump’s peace plan?
Steve Witkoff: Real estate mogul turned envoy
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What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A good impression of a useful idiot
Subsequently, Witkoff drafted the controversial peace proposal with his Russian counterparts, and the US pressured Ukraine to accept it.
The report paints an unflattering picture of Trump’s envoy doing a good impression of a useful idiot.
There must be serious questions surrounding his engagement with the Russians and serious concerns around consequences that are potentially catastrophic.
Moscow’s threat to Ukraine and to the security infrastructure of Western Europe is strengthened on his handshake.
He’ll press the flesh in Russia once more – Donald Trump is sending Witkoff back to Moscow for further talks aimed at bridging the Ukraine-Russia impasse.
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Trump: I think we are getting very close to Ukraine deal
Scandal isn’t what it used to be
Putin has given the Americans little to no encouragement around their reworked plan and Kyiv will shudder at what Trump’s “Mr Fixit” might fix next.
They will despair of his continued involvement at any level and what it says about Trump’s perspective and where his loyalties lie.
In any other job, Witkoff might have been sacked for being irredeemably compromised.
At any other time, this would have been viewed, universally, as a major scandal.
But under Donald Trump, scandal isn’t what it used to be.
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‘Ukraine still needs defence support,’ says Zelenskyy
The president and his point man continue to consort with Vladimir Putin.
On the evidence of Steve Witkoff’s interaction, the power dynamic leans less Trump than we might have thought.
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