There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.
James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.
He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.
There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”
Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.
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Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”
He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.
“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.
He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.
“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”
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How will Ukraine war change in 2025?
His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.
The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.
The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.
“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.
He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.
“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”
Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.
There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.
The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.
However, the threshold is unclear.
On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.
“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”
Young women living under oppressive Taliban rule in Afghanistan have dared to share their hopes and fears for 2025, which range from an end to “gender apartheid”, to simply going for a walk in the park.
The five women in their twenties have all had their studies or careers interrupted since the Taliban seized control in 2021 and aggressively cracked down on women’s rights.
“My wish for 2025, is to have a life free from the Taliban flag,” one woman says in a recorded video message, sent covertly to our special correspondent Alex Crawford.
“This is not only my wish, but the wish of all Afghan women.”
A second woman hopes “women in Afghanistan will be recognised as human beings”, and another dreams of being able to go “to the park, to the playground and to the beauty salons“.
The women, who are aspiring journalists, writers, lawyers and teachers, all spoke anonymously over fears they would be punished in a country that violently curbs freedom of expression and recently banned contact with foreigners.
All are now largely confined to their homes.
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The Islamic fundamentalist group has already excluded women from higher education and most jobs, and forbidden them from speaking or showing their faces in public.
On Saturday, it banned windows in new buildings that look into places where a woman might be seen.
And on Sunday it said it would close any NGOs still employing women, two years after it told them to stop Afghan females working for them, allegedly because they did not wear the Islamic headscarf correctly.
In the highly personal recordings, the women say they want to “learn again” and “walk on the streets without any fear” – and hope the International Criminal Court will prosecute members of the Taliban.
One says despite their “difficult” circumstances, Afghan women “still have hopes and still have dreams”.
“When I see the birds flying in the air, I stare at them and think so deeply [about] how lucky they are,” she says.
She thinks the same when she “[hears] about girls in other countries, how successful they are… I also wish we could do the same. We are also human beings”.
She adds: “I dream of a day when I can also continue my education… have freedom of speech and can say whatever I want… A day when all of the Afghan girls can go to school again, in their lovely uniforms, which I really miss.”
And finally, she dreams “that one day all the Afghan girls can go out of their houses and walk on the streets without any fear”.
She adds: “I request all the people who are hearing us today to never forget us… I hope none of you experience what we are today.”
The OSINT team at Sky News uses satellite images, video and publicly available data to verify and investigate breaking stories.
Whether helping inform out coverage of conflicts in the middle east, or showing the scale of damage caused by hurricanes and floods, satellite images have been an important resource throughout the year.
As 2024 comes to an end, we have compiled some of the most striking and informative examples seen this year.
January: Earthquake hits Japan’s Noto Peninsula
On 1 January, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake affected the Noto Peninsula in Japan.
It killed more than 500 people, and cased substantial damage to buildings in the area.
February: First commercial mission to the moon lands
On 22 February, the first commercial mission to the moon landed.
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Odysseus, a Nova-C lander owned by Intuitive Machines, was photographed by NASA on 24 February after its arrival to the moon’s southern polar region.
This was the first time that a private company has successfully sent a spacecraft to the moon.
March: Container ship hits Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore
On 26 March, the container ship Dali hit Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing it to collapse. This killed six maintenance workers.
The cost of replacing the bridge has been estimated to be close to $2bn.
April: Eclipse seen over Mexico and the Pacific Ocean
On 8 April, a total solar eclipse passed across North America. Caused by an alignment in the positions of the sun and moon, the phenomenon was visible in Mexico, the United States and Canada.
Its shadow was photographed by NASA as it passed over the Pacific Ocean and the eastern coast of Mexico.
May– Israeli strike targets Rafah camp
On 26 May, an Israeli airstrike targeted an area housing displaced people near the city of Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip.
At least 45 people were killed in this strike, with many more injured. Images from the scene caused widespread international backlash. Israel said it was targeting senior Hamas commanders.
Investigations by Sky News and other outlets subsequently found that the munition used was an American-made GBU-39 bomb.
June: Volcanic eruption in Iceland
In mid-June, a volcano on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula erupted.
Coinciding with increased earthquake activity, the eruption resulted in a large lava flow visible from space.
July: The Olympic Games held in Paris
In the summer, France hosted the Olympic Games in Paris. During the games several events were held close to the city’s famous landmarks.
This image, captured by Maxar, shows a temporary volleyball stadium in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower.
August: Wildfires approach the edge of Athens
In August, thousands of people were evacuated from the countryside surrounding Athens due to wildfires.
By the time the fires subsided, approximately 100,000 acres were burned.
September: Hurricane Helene makes landfall in the United States
On September 26, Hurricane Helene made landfall on the Florida Coast.
The storm left a trail of destruction across the southern United States, resulting in power cuts that in some cases lasted for days.
Satellite images taken at night by NASA show the storm passing over Florida and Georgia.
October:Flooding in Spain
At the end of October, the Spanish city of Valencia and its surrounding areas experienced severe flash flooding.
This killed more than 200 people, and covered large areas with water, mud and debris.
Satellite imagery captured by Maxar on 31 October shows the scale of the flooding, with the south of the city being worst affected.
November: Mount Fuji without snow in November for the first time in 130 years
Japan’s Mount Fuji made headlines this year, after its famous snow cap failed to materialise until 6 November.
Satellite imagery captured by Planet Labs shows the mountain without snow on 4 November for the first time in 130 years.
The appearance of snow on Mount Fuji occurred a month later than in 2023, when it was recorded on 5 October.
December: Russian military equipment gathered at airbase following fall of Assad
In December, the Syrian civil war came to a sudden end as rebel groups captured all previously government-held territory within the space of a few weeks.
While the former dictator Bashar al Assad fled to Russia, Russian troops and equipment that helped prop up his regime were left in the country.
Following the fall of Assad’s regime, it appears Russia is in the process of withdrawing from Syria.
On 19 December, a satellite image captured by Maxar showed large amounts of Russian military equipment assembled for transport from its Syrian airbase.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A South Korean court has issued a warrant for the arrest of impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol after his short-lived attempt to impose martial law, the country’s anti-corruption agency has said.
The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials, which is leading a joint investigation with police and military authorities into the power grab that lasted only a few hours, confirmed it requested the warrant from the Seoul Western District Court on Monday.
The agency said it is investigating whether his declaration of martial law amounted to rebellion.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court will determine whether to dismiss Mr Yoon as president or reinstate him.
He has ignored repeated requests by investigative authorities to appear for questioning and allow them to search his office.
Mr Yoon has the presidential privilege of immunity from criminal prosecution, but it does not extend to allegations of rebellion or treason.
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The anti-corruption agency said it has no immediate plans on how to proceed with the court-issued warrants.
Many observers earlier doubted that authorities would forcefully detain him because of the potential for clashes with the presidential security service.
They say the security service likely will not permit searches of Mr Yoon’s office, citing a law that prohibits searches on sites with state secrets without approval from those in charge of those areas.
Mr Yoon’s imposition of martial law lasted only six hours but triggered huge political turmoil, halting high-level diplomacy and rattling financial markets.
The president sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly to block a vote on his decree, but enough members managed to enter the assembly chamber to overturn it unanimously.
Mr Yoon has argued his decree was a legitimate act of governance, calling it a warning to the main liberal opposition Democratic Party which he has described as “despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces”.
He claims the party used its legislative majority to impeach top officials and undermine the government’s budget.
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South Korean president lifts martial law order
The country’s political crisis deepened on Friday when the Democratic Party and other small opposition parties voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo.
The opposition brought impeachment proceedings against him over his refusal to immediately fill three places on South Korea’s Constitutional Court – where the former president is on trial.
Three justices had been approved by parliament – where the opposition Democratic Party has a majority – but Mr Han said he would not formally appoint them without bipartisan agreement.
South Korea’s constitution says that six justices on the nine-member Constitutional Court must agree to remove an impeached president, meaning the current justices must vote unanimously to remove Mr Yoon.
The deputy prime minister and finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, has become South Korea’s new interim leader.