Unconventional Russian attack could cause ‘substantial’ casualties, top NATO official warns
There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.
James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.
He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.
NATO’s James Appathurai speaking to Sky News security and defence editor Deborah Haynes
There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”
Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.
A Russian soldier fires on a Ukrainian position. Pic: AP
Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”
He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.
“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.
He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.
“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”
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His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.
The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.
The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.
“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.
He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.
“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”
Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.
There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.
The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.
However, the threshold is unclear.
On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.
“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”
World
Israel had ‘no choice’ but to attack Iran because it was ‘rushing’ to nuclear bomb, president Isaac Herzog claims
Israel had “no other choice” but to attack Iran because it was proceeding “dramatically” towards a nuclear bomb, Israeli President Isaac Herzog has claimed.
Speaking to Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, he said Iran was “rushing” to the bomb “under disguise”.
He also suggested the Israeli war cabinet was discussing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid reports that President Donald Trump vetoed a plan to kill him.
It comes as Israel and Iran continue to fire missiles at each other after Israel launched an unprecedented strike on Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities.
Tehran has long denied that its nuclear program has been attempting to obtain a nuclear weapon.
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Sky’s Yalda Hakim interrupted by air raid sirens
Mr Herzog was asked why Israel attacked Iran when it did.
“When you take such decisions of historic magnitude and proportions, you have to analyse all facets and all facts,” he replied.
“The truth of the matter is there was no other choice.”
Isaac Herzog speaks to Yalda Hakim
He claimed Iran was proceeding “dramatically” towards the bomb, both in terms of the enrichment of uranium and, “clandestinely”, the armament part of the process.
“I’ve always been very crystal clear with regards to a nuclear capability of our enemies – it has to be removed at once.”
Mr Herzog added: “We have to remove the Iranian nuclear program because we see the negotiating process as being futile because they are lying whilst talking to us.
“They are lying whilst talking to the United States and other allies.”
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Iran ambassador: ‘This is about self-defence’
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He was questioned whether the strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure could provoke a response that causes a mass casualty event in Israel.
“(We are) very much aware of the risks of this war,” he replied. “Every night there are missile attacks, heavy missile attacks on Israel.
“We have our air defence systems, which are excellent.
“Unfortunately, we have casualties. Brothers and sisters of ours from toddlers all the way up to the age of 94.”
He continued: “No, we don’t accept it at all… That’s why we are fighting also, to eliminate their capability of firing at us.”
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He also suggested the Israeli war cabinet was discussing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after reports Mr Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill him.
“Let’s just remember that the Supreme Leader of Iran has for years called for the annihilation of Israel.”
Iran’s response to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities is “self-defence” and a “matter of principle”, the Iranian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.
Speaking exclusively to The World With Yalda Hakim, Seyed Ali Mousavi said the “barbaric Israeli regime” is “violating international law” – describing Israel’s actions in recent days as “an act of aggression against the Iranian people”.
The conflict between Israel and Iran – once played out in a series of proxy wars – has escalated in the past three days.
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Sky’s Yalda Hakim spoke to Iran’s ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi
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Israel-Iran: How the conflict escalated
On Friday morning, explosions hit Tehran as Israel carried out a major attack on its top army leaders, nuclear sites, and nuclear scientists.
Iran threatened “severe punishment” and quickly retaliated with a wave of missiles.
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Missile aftermath in Israel
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Israeli missile hits warehouse in Iranian city
When questioned about whether Iran could continue fighting Israel, the Iranian ambassador told Yalda Hakim that “it is a matter of principle”.
He said: “This is about self-defence, there is no doubt about it.
“We are a responsible member state of the UN and we do all activities according to our international obligations.
“Any activities are only in the framework of self-defence.”
Damage from an Iranian missile attack to a building in Bat Yam, Israel. Pic: Reuters
Explosions over Jerusalem on Sunday
He added that his country would “do our best to preserve our territorial integrity”, and that “with the help of God”, Iran will “materialise endeavours concretely against our enemy – the Israeli regime”.
Mr Mousavi also told Hakim that Iran’s nuclear activities are “monitored”, and that recent comments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were “politically motivated”.
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Missiles have also been seen over Tel Aviv
The UN nuclear watchdog’s board of governors found Iran was not complying with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Iran said it has “always adhered” to the safeguarding obligations laid down by the watchdog.
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Iranian ambassador reacts to strikes – full interview
Announcing Operation Rising Lion on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran had recently taken steps to weaponise enriched uranium, which could be used to make nuclear weapons.
But Mr Mousavi stressed that Iran’s “peaceful activities” at its “nuclear fields” were only for the “generation of electricity, and other peaceful” things.
Iran was due to continue its round of negotiations with the US in Muscat – however, this was cancelled, given recent tensions.
The government is warning people not to travel to Israel under any circumstances, as the country’s missile exchange with Iran shows no sign of abating.
On Friday, the Foreign Office warned against “all but essential travel” to most of Israel.
The areas around Gaza, the West Bank and the Golan Heights were already classed as red zones, with warnings to avoid travel to these areas.
But the government has now updated the warning for the remainder of the country to red.
Follow live: Tehran and Israel exchange strikes
This puts Israel on the same level as Iran, and the change of advice is also likely to impact travel insurance.
However, with Israel’s airspace closed, it is unlikely many people will be attempting the journey, and Israel’s national airline El Al has announced it is cancelling flights to and from many European cities, as well as Tokyo and Moscow, until 23 June.
The change in travel advice comes after a second night of ballistic missile barrages from Iran following Israel’s attack in the early hours of Friday morning.
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An eight-storey residential building in Tel Aviv was hit by a missile last night.
On Sunday morning, Israel’s health ministry said 12 people had been killed over the past day, taking the total since Friday to 15. It also said 385 people had arrived at hospital with injuries overnight.
Iran has not provided a total number of deaths or overall casualties, but has claimed dozens have been killed.
Iran’s health minister has said most of those injured and killed in Israeli strikes were civilians. According to comments carried by news agency IRNA, he said the majority were women and children.
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The chancellor said UK forces could “potentially” be used to help defend Israel.
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The UK government is sending military assets, including fighter jets, to the Middle East.
While the prime minister would not confirm to reporters that UK forces could be used to defend Israel from future Iranian attacks, the chancellor told Sky News earlier that the government is “not ruling anything out”.
Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Rachel Reeves said sending military assets to the Middle East “does not mean that we are at war”, and emphasised that “we have not been involved in these strikes or this conflict”.
“But we do have important assets in the region,” she continued. “And it is right that we send jets to protect them. And that’s what we’ve done. It’s a precautionary move, and at the same time, we are urging de-escalation.”
Pushed on the question of what the UK would do if Israel asked for support with its operations, the chancellor replied: “I’m not going to rule anything out at this stage. It’s a fast-moving situation, a very volatile situation. But we don’t want to see escalation.”
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