Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom (L) and former CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger.
Reuters | CNBC
It was a big year for silicon in Silicon Valley — but a brutal one for the company most responsible for the area’s moniker.
Intel, the 56-year-old chipmaker co-founded by industry pioneers Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce and legendary investor Arthur Rock, had its worst year since going public in 1971, losing 61% of its value.
The opposite story unfolded at Broadcom, the chip conglomerate run by CEO Hock Tan and headquartered in Palo Alto, California, about 15 miles from Intel’s Santa Clara campus.
Broadcom’s stock price soared 111% in 2024 as of Monday’s close, its best performance ever. The current company is the product of a 2015 acquisition by Avago, which went public in 2009.
The driving force behind the diverging narratives was artificial intelligence. Broadcom rode the AI train, while Intel largely missed it. The changing fortunes of the two chipmakers underscores the fleeting nature of leadership in the tech industry and how a few key decisions can result in hundreds of billions — or even trillions — of dollars in market cap shifts.
Broadcom develops custom chips for Google and other huge cloud companies. It also makes essential networking gear that large server clusters need to tie thousands of AI chips together. Within AI, Broadcom has largely been overshadowed by Nvidia, whose graphics processing units, or GPUs, power most of the large language models being developed at OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and Amazon and also enable the heftiest AI workloads.
Despite having a lower profile, Broadcom’s accelerator chips, which the company calls XPUs, have become a key piece of the AI ecosystem.
“Why it’s really shooting up is because they’re talking about AI, AI, AI, AI,” Eric Ross, chief investment strategist at Cascend, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier this month.
Intel, which for decades was the dominant U.S. chipmaker, has been mostly shut out of AI. Its server chips lag far behind Nvidia’s, and the company has also lost market share to longtime rival Advanced Micro Devices while spending heavily on new factories.
Intel’s board ousted Pat Gelsinger from the CEO role on Dec. 1, after a tumultuous four-year tenure.
“I think someone more innovative might have seen the AI wave coming,” Paul Argenti, professor of management at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, said in an interview on “Squawk Box” after the announcement.
An Intel spokesperson declined to comment.
Broadcom is now worth about $1.1 trillion and is the eighth U.S. tech company to cross the trillion-dollar mark. It’s the second most valuable chip company, behind Nvidia, which has driven the AI boom to a $3.4 trillion valuation, trailing only Apple among all public companies. Nvidia’s stock price soared 178% this year, but actually did better in 2023, when it gained 239%.
Until four years ago, Intel was the world’s most valuable chipmaker, nearing a $300 billion market cap in early 2020. The company is now worth about $85 billion, just got booted off the Dow Jones Industrial Average — replaced by Nvidia — and has been in talks to sell off core parts of its business. Intel now ranks 15th in market cap among semiconductor companies globally.
‘Not meant for everybody’
Following the Avago-Broadcom merger in 2015, the combined company’s biggest business was chips for TV set-top boxes and broadband routers. Broadcom still makes Wi-Fi chips used in laptops as well as the iPhone and other smartphones.
After a failed bid to buy mobile chip giant Qualcomm in 2018, Broadcom turned its attention to software companies. The capstone of its spending spree came in 2022 with the announced acquisition of server virtualization software vendor VMware for $61 billion. Software accounted for 41% of Broadcom’s $14 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter, thanks in part to VMware.
What’s exciting Wall Street is Broadcom’s role working with cloud providers to build custom chips for AI. The company’s XPUs are generally simpler and less expensive to operate than Nvidia’s GPUs, and they’re designed to run specific AI programs efficiently.
Cloud vendors and other large internet companies are spending billions of dollars a year on Nvidia’s GPUs so they can build their own models and run AI workloads for customers. Broadcom’s success with custom chips is setting up an AI spending showdown with Nvidia, as hyperscale cloud companies look to differentiate their products and services from their rivals.
Broadcom’s chips aren’t for everyone, as only a handful of companies can afford to design and build their own custom processors.
“You have to be a Google, you have to be a Meta, you have to be a Microsoft or an Oracle to be able to use those chips,” Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Dec. 13, a day after Broadcom’s earnings. “These chips are not meant for everybody.”
While 2024 has been a breakout year for Broadcom — AI revenue increased 220% — the month of December has put it in record territory. The stock is up 45% for the month as of Monday’s close, 16 percentage points better than its prior best month.
On the company’s earnings call on Dec. 12, Tan told investors that Broadcom had doubled shipments of its XPUs to its three hyperscale providers. The most well known of the bunch is Google, which counts on the technology for its Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, used to train Apple’s AI software released this year. The other two customers, according to analysts, are TikTok parent ByteDance and Meta.
Tan said that within about two years, companies could spend between $60 billion and $90 billion on XPUs.
“In 2027, we believe each of them plans to deploy 1 million XPU clusters across a single fabric,” Tan said of the three hyperscale customers.
In addition to AI chips, AI server clusters need powerful networking parts to train the most advanced models. Networking chips for AI accounted for 76% of Broadcom’s $4.5 billion of networking sales in the fourth quarter.
Broadcom said that, in total, about 40% of its $30.1 billion in 2024 semiconductor sales were related to AI, and that AI revenue would increase 65% in the first quarter to $3.8 billion.
“The degree of success amongst the hyperscalers in their initiatives here is clearly an area up for debate,” Cantor analyst C.J. Muse, who recommends buying Broadcom shares, wrote in a report on Dec. 18. “But any way you slice it, the focus here will continue to be a meaningful boon for those levered to custom silicon.”
Intel’s very bad year
Prior to 2024, Intel’s worst year on the market was 1974, when the stock sank 57%.
The seeds for the company’s latest stumbles were planted years ago, as Intel missed out on mobile chips to Qualcomm, ARM and Apple.
Rival AMD started taking market share in the critical PC and server CPU markets thanks to its productive manufacturing relationship with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Intel’s manufacturing process has been a notch behind for years, leading to slower and less power-efficient central processing units, or CPUs.
But Intel’s most costly whiff is in AI — and it’s a big reason Gelsinger was removed.
Nvidia’s GPUs, originally created for video games, have become the critical hardware in the development of power-hungry AI models. Intel’s CPU, formerly the most important and expensive part in a server, has become an afterthought in an AI server. The GPUs Nvidia will ship in 2025 don’t even need an Intel CPU — many of them are paired to an Nvidia-designed ARM-based chip.
As Nvidia has reported revenue growth of at least 94% for the past six quarters, Intel has been forced into downsizing mode. Sales have declined in nine of the past 11 periods. Intel announced in August that it was cutting 15,000 jobs, or about 15% of its workforce.
“We are working to create a leaner, simpler, more agile Intel,” board Chair Frank Yeary said in a Dec. 2 press release announcing Gelsinger’s departure.
A big problem for Intel is that it lacks a comprehensive AI strategy. It’s touted the AI capabilities on its laptop chips to investors, and released an Nvidia competitor called Gaudi 3. But neither the company’s AI PC initiative nor its Gaudi chips have gained much traction in the market. Intel’s Gaudi 3 sales missed the company’s own $500 million target for this year.
Late next year, Intel will release a new AI chip that it codenamed Falcon Shores. It won’t be built on Gaudi 3 architecture, and will instead be a GPU.
“Is it going to be wonderful? No, but it is a good first step in getting the platform done,” Intel interim co-CEO Michelle Holthaus said at a financial conference held by Barclays on Dec. 12.
Holthaus and fellow interim co-CEO David Zinsner have vowed to focus on Intel’s products, leaving the fate of Intel’s costly foundry division unclear.
Before he left, Gelsinger championed a strategy that involved Intel both finding its footing in the semiconductor market and manufacturing chips to compete with TSMC. In June, at a conference in Taipei, Gelsinger told CNBC that when its factories get up and running, Intel wanted to build “everybody’s AI chips,” and give companies such as Nvidia and Broadcom an alternative to TSMC.
Intel said in September that it plans to turn its foundry business into an independent unit with its own board and the potential to raise outside capital. But for now, Intel’s primary client is Intel. The company said it didn’t expect meaningful sales from external customers until 2027.
At the Barclays event this month, Zinsner said the separate board for the foundry business is “getting stood up today.” More broadly, he indicated that the company is looking to remove complexity and associated costs wherever possible.
“We are going to constantly be scrutinizing where we’re spending money, making sure that we’re getting the appropriate return,” Zinsner said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia stand for a photo with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and other participants at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center on Nov. 19, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
The U.S. has approved sales of advanced Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN and the United Arab Emirates’ G42, authorizing the state-backed firms to buy up to 35,000 chips, worth an estimated $1 billion.
The approval of these chip exports marks a major reversal for the U.S., which had previously balked at the idea of direct exports to state-backed AI companies in the Gulf. Export controls were put into place to avoid advanced American technology making its way to China through the back door of Gulf Arab states.
Before former President Joe Biden left office in January, he administered a final round of export restrictions on advanced AI chips, targeting companies like Nvidia, in a sweeping effort to keep that cutting-edge U.S. intellectual property out of China’s reach.
Now, President Donald Trump is moving to expand the reach of such advanced technology in order to “promote continued American AI dominance and global technological leadership,” the U.S. Commerce Department said in a statement published on Wednesday.
The U.S. Commerce Department approved the chip exports, with the condition the state-backed AI outfits agree to “rigorous security and reporting requirements,” overseen by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security.
Saudi’s Victory Lap
The export approval follows Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s trip to Washington this week where the Kingdom pledged to spend $1 trillion in the U.S., up from $600 billion originally committed during Trump’s Gulf tour in May.
“Even if we don’t get to that, both sides have skin in the game,” Afshin Molavi, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Saudi Arabia’s AI company HUMAIN, backed by its nearly $1 trillion Public Investment Fund signed a long list of partnerships with Adobe, Qualcomm, AMD, Cisco, GlobalAI, Groq, Luma, and xAI at a U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum held in Washington, D.C this week. Notably, HUMAIN will be teaming up with Elon Musk’s xAI to build a 500 megawatt data center in the Kingdom.
“What we want to do in 2026 is to build the capacity equivalent to what Saudi has built in the last 20 years, in one year,” Tareq Amin, CEO of HUMAIN, said at the summit. HUMAIN is hoping to position Saudi Arabia as the third biggest global AI hub, after the likes of the U.S. and China.
Winning over the U.S. Commerce Department
Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN and UAE’s G42 “have the capital to invest, the relationships with Nvidia and the (relationship with the) U.S. government,” Kamil Dimmich, partner and portfolio manager at North of South Capital, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in an interview on Wednesday.
G42 and HUMAIN are “able to use this to build out regional infrastructure, and they want to leverage that infrastructure to become a global hub for compute,” Dimmich added.
Just two weeks ago, Microsoft secured an export license for advanced chips to the UAE. Microsoft’s key partner in the UAE is G42, but the local AI company was notably absent from the Microsoft announcement, until today.
Nvidia on Wednesday reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and provided a strong forecast for the current quarter.
Wall Street welcomed the report, and Nvidia stock rose after the release and during the conference call. Other stocks in the so-called artificial intelligence trade also saw a boost.
A closer look at Nvidia’s report shows that it continues to dominate the market for AI chips called GPUs, and CEO Jensen Huang sounded confident in the company’s products and bullish on the company’s outlook during a call with analysts.
Nvidia said it expects about $65 billion in sales in the current quarter, which ends in late January. That would be 65% growth on an annual basis.
Here are three key takeaways from Nvidia’s earnings:
Nvidia rejects bubble talk
On Wednesday’s earnings call with analysts, Huang began his comments by rejecting the premise of an “AI bubble” held by some investors who are concerned about the billions of dollars being spent on Nvidia chips and potential return on investment.
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Huang said. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”
Huang said there were three different kinds of uses for AI that are currently growing, and that all three are contributing to the boom in infrastructure investments.
He said that non-AI software, like for data processing, was increasingly being run on the company’s GPUs, that AI will create new kinds of apps, and that “agentic AI” which doesn’t need user input, will require additional computing power.
Huang said that people will soon start appreciating what’s happening underneath the surface of the AI boom, versus “the simplistic view of what’s happening to CapEx and investment.”
Bernstein analysts said in a note that Huang’s comments helped settle investor fears of a bubble after a recent pullback in AI names, saying “perhaps the AI trade is not yet dead after all.”
“More than just good numbers, we believe investors needed some hand-holding from Jensen which he provided in spades,” the analysts wrote.
‘Half a trillion’ forecast is on track
Last month, Huang said at a conference in Washington, DC, that his company had orders for $500 billion in AI chips in 2025 and 2026.
On Wednesday, the company said that the forecast was still on track. Any long-term outlook from Nvidia is important to the technology industry because Nvidia counts many of the most powerful technology customers as customers.
Nvidia said on Wednesday that its order backlog didn’t even include a few recent announcements, like the company’s deal with Anthropic or the expansion of a deal with Saudi Arabia this week.
“The number will grow,” CFO Colette Kress said on the call, saying the company was on track to hit the forecast. “We’ll probably be taking more orders.”
“We see the opportunity to grow for quite some time,” Huang said.
Several analyst notes on Thursday drew attention to the $500 billion forecast and the addition of the recently announced deals.
Jefferies said Nvidia “answered the bell” in its earnings report and said the numbers should help steady the AI trade into the end of the year.
“We don’t expect every AI bear to be satisfied, but these results and added context from management around demand outlook should offer some near-term reprieve,” the analysts wrote.
“Insignificant” China orders
Nvidia fought over the summer to gain licenses to export its H20 chip, a slowed-down version of 2022 technology, to China. Some analysts projected the China business could be worth $50 billion per year to Nvidia.
The company eventually got the licenses this summer after Huang personally met with President Donald Trump and struck a deal to give the U.S. government 15% of China sales.
But it turns out that the sales of H20 chips during the quarter was “insignificant.” Kress told analysts that the company recorded $50 million in H20 sales during the period.
“Sizable purchase orders never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China,” Kress said.
Nvidia has argued that the U.S. government should allow exports of the most advanced chips because it’s better for national security if Chinese developers get used to Nvidia technology, rather than being forced to use Chinese chips and make them better.
The H20 is old technology, but Nvidia wants to gain approval to send a version of its current-generation Blackwell chip in China.
“While we were disappointed in the current state that prevents us from shipping more competitive data center compute products to China, we are committed to continued engagement with the US and China governments and will continue to advocate for America’s ability to compete around the world,” Kress said.
Analysts at Melius said Thursday that the lack of China sales made the numbers “all the more extraordinary” and projected Nvidia would generate nearly $400 billion in free cash flow over the next nine quarters.
“Currently Nvidia isn’t delivering to China and we are not counting on this situation to get straightened out,” the firm said.
Waymo driverless vehicles charge at a Waymo charging station in Santa Monica, California, U.S., May 30, 2025.
Daniel Cole | Reuters
Alphabet’s Waymo on Thursday announced that it will soon begin manually driving its robotaxi vehicles in Minneapolis, Tampa and New Orleans.
The Google sister company will start operating test drives in that trio of towns with human drivers in hopes of launching its driverless robotaxi service there as soon as next year, the company said.
If Waymo does begin operating in those markets next year, that would bring the robotaxi company’s list of 2026 planned expansions to 15 cities.
On Tuesday, Waymo said it plans to start operating its vehicles with no human driver in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami and Orlando in the coming weeks, with plans to open service to the public there next year. The company has also previously announced plans to expand to Detroit, Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and London in 2026.
A spokesperson said Waymo will wait until its technology is validated in Minneapolis, Tampa and New Orleans before committing to 2026 service launches.
“2026 is very much on the table, but we’ll be led by our safety framework,” Waymo spokesperson Ethan Teicher said in an email.
With more than 250,000 weekly paid trips, Waymo’s robotaxi service currently operates in Austin, the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles markets. The company has provided more than 10 million paid rides since launching in 2020.
Last week, Waymo began offering freeway routes in the San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles markets. The company said it will gradually extend freeway trips to more riders and locations over time.
The addition of freeway rides marked an important milestone for Waymo and the robotaxi industry due to the challenges conditions of operating at such high speeds. Next year, Waymo will set its sights on achieving another key milestone: operating in markets known for harsh winter conditions.
Along with Denver and Detroit, the addition of Minneapolis means Waymo believes its nearly ready to begin serving riders in regions where its driverless vehicles would need to be ready to brave snow and frigid forecasts.
“We currently operate at freezing temperatures, including with frost and hail, and we’re validating our system to navigate harsher weather conditions,” Teicher said. “We’ll have small fleets to start that we expand over time.”
This week, Amazon-owned Zoox began allowing select San Francisco users to hail its driverless vehicles. San Francisco is the second market where Zoox now offers a free service, after its launch in Las Vegas in September. The company plans to remove its rider waitlist for San Francisco entirely in 2026.