Predictions for the World Juniors medal round: Who wins it all? Who takes home the awards?
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Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
With the round robin complete, the focus shifts to the medal round of the 2025 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship. After an entertaining preliminary round with plenty of parity and intrigue, the stage is set for a classic medal round.
One wrinkle to note moving forward, there is a reseeding after the quarterfinal. The highest remaining seed based on group placement, points accrued, and goal differential (in that order) will play the lowest remaining seed. The top four teams are Sweden, United States, Czechia and Finland.
Given the lack of a set bracket, it is hard to predict all the way through, but we’ll give it our best shot, including tournament awards.
Finland takes on Slovakia in what should be an entertaining matchup. Both teams showed weakness in the preliminary round, with Finland getting shut out by Canada and beating the United States in overtime. Slovakia needed overtime to beat Kazakhstan, and a late winner against Switzerland after disappointing performances against Sweden and Czechia. Both teams have goaltenders capable of stealing a game, although Slovakia’s Samuel Urban has underperformed in the tournament.
The Finns are yet to have a standout offensive performance, and lack a real gamebreaker up front. They rank ninth on the power play, besting only Kazakhstan, and are shooting 6.37%. Their bright spot is their perfect penalty kill, something they will need to continue if they are to win low scoring games in the medal round. The Finns need more from Jesse Nurmi, Emil Hemming, Kosta Helenius and Kasper Halttunen on offense.
Slovakia’s medal hopes rest largely on the shoulders of Dalibor Dvorsky and Maxim Strbak, both playing in their fourth World Junior tournament. Dvorsky started slowly and was not as dominant as many expected him to be, but factored in four of five goals against Kazakhstan to secure the win. Strbak will be critical to keeping the best Finnish players off the scoresheet, while also contributing offensively. Dvorsky is a true gamebreaker for Slovakia, capable of scoring a key goal, creating scoring chances and putting the team on his back.
If Urban can play up to his potential and keep the Finns out, Slovakia has the advantage because of Dvorsky’s game-breaking ability. But for now, advantage Finland.
The American matchup against the Swiss should be a simple case of the the United States having far too much for Switzerland to handle in every aspect. The Americans are simply stronger in every area.
In goal, Trey Augustine will lead the way and has rounded into form. Cole Hutson and Zeev Buium are offensive dynamos on the back end who will eat minutes and drive offense. The first forward line of Gabriel Perreault, James Hagens and Ryan Leonard will likely be far too much for the Swiss to handle.
Further down the lineup, the Americans have players who check well, wear opponents down and hold the puck. Barring an outstanding performance in the Swiss goal and a calamitous offensive performance, the Americans should cruise through to the semifinal.
Sweden and Latvia should be similar to USA-Switzerland; however, the Latvians have proven they cannot be taken lightly.
Linards Feldbergs has been the tournament MVP thus far, carrying the Latvians to wins against Canada and Germany, earning a quarterfinal berth. The Swedes looked strong in the preliminary round led by Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Otto Stenberg and Anton Wahlberg.
The Latvians will work hard and create chances off the rush, but the Swedish depth should be too much for the Latvians to overcome. If Feldbergs has another rabbit in his mask, the Latvians have a chance — without that, expect Sweden to cruise to the semifinal.
In what will likely be the best matchup of the quarterfinals, Czechia and Canada will meet in the quarters for the second straight year. Canada looks to avenge last year’s disappointing loss in Sweden, and given Czechia’s offensive firepower, Canada has a big hill to climb.
The Czechs are getting solid production from Eduard Sale and Vojtech Hradec up front, and stable goaltending from Michael Hrabal. The Czechs have a tournament-leading 25 goals, rank top four on both special teams, and lead the tournament with a 19.7% shooting percentage; that shooting percentage will not continue in the medal round, as the bulk of the offensive production came in a 14-2 win against Kazakhstan. In their remaining three games, the Czechs scored 11 goals on 91 shots, for a 12.1% shooting percentage. That is far more sustainable and gives them an advantage against Canada.
Canada has struggled in every aspect of their game, aside from goaltending. Carter George has been excellent and will need to continue his run of play if Canada is to have a chance. Two things are plaguing Canada: a lack of finish, and undisciplined play. Canada opted to leave scorers at home in favor of penalty killers and checkers, something many pointed out prior to the start of the tournament. Fast forward to now, and Canada is struggling to score, they are the most undisciplined team in the tournament and the penalty killers have been ineffective.
Porter Martone, Carson Rehkopf and Gavin McKenna are not being deployed to maximize their offensive potential, and the rest of Canada’s forwards are not scoring at the expected level. Most of the scoring chances are coming from the outside, as Canada struggles to generate in the middle of the ice. Canada will need to get to the middle of the ice, avoid the penalty box (a tall task) and all that starts with the coaching staff altering the deployment of their offensive players.
As it stands, the Czechs have a distinct advantage, but no one will be surprised if Canada pulls it together and gets revenge for last year’s early exit.
Who wins the tournament?
Heading into the semis, it is fair to expect at least one quarterfinal upset. Slovakia and Canada are most likely to knock off their respective higher-seeded opponents, with Canada getting the advantage because of the goaltending.
Given the re-seeding, let’s say the semifinalists are Sweden, United States, Finland and Canada. That would mean we would get Sweden vs. Canada and United States vs. Finland. If the Czechs and Slovakians were to win, it would produce USA vs. Czechia and Sweden vs. Slovakia. Regardless of outcome, Sweden and the United States would be in excellent position to meet in the gold medal game — a rematch of last year’s championship affair.
This year, the Swedes are a deeper team and have a slight advantage over the United States. In a game that would be very close and could come down to overtime, Sweden’s mobile defense core and ability to create offense up and down their lineup may be the difference maker. Given the number of returnees with professional experience playing significant roles for Sweden (Sandin-Pellikka, Wahlberg, Felix Unger Sorum and Theo Lindstein), they should have an advantage as games get tighter and space is less available.
The Americans have the advantage with gamebreakers. Hagens, Perreault and Cole Eiserman are capable of creating and finishing scoring chances with lethal precision. Regardless of outcome, this game will come down to whether the Swedish depth can keep the American firepower at bay. If they can, the Swedes are well set up to avenge their silver medal in Sweden last year.
Individual awards
As for the tournament awards, it is hard to envision a scenario where Sandin-Pellikka and and U.S. defenseman Cole Hutson aren’t the two best, barring some otherworldly performance in the medal round by another blueliner.
In goal, if Carter George gets Canada anywhere near the gold medal game and keep a save percentage above .950, he will likely be a Directorate Award winner. If he can’t, one of Augustine or Hrabal could win the award with excellent performances in the medal round.
There are many options for tournament MVP, led by Sandin-Pellikka and Dvorsky. If Dvorsky can lead Slovakia to a medal, he will get a long look for top forward and tournament MVP. The foundation for these awards is set in the preliminary round, but the true decisions are made as the medal round progresses. Perreault has been quieter than expected, but if the top line heats up for the Americans, he’s got a shot at this award as well. Never count out a guy who can put the puck in the net the way that Perreault can.
If you picked the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers to be the first team to win 50 games this MLB season, you weren’t alone.
You were also wrong.
If you picked the Detroit Tigers, congratulations! We’re not sure we believe you, but we’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
The Tigers won their 50th game on Tuesday, a full day before the Dodgers, and they got there thanks to big contributions all season from ace Tarik Skubal, the red-hot Riley Greene and the resurgent Javier Baez, among many others.
But are they really as good as they’ve played so far? Are they even the American League’s best team? Could they defeat the Dodgers (or whichever team comes out of a stacked National League) in the World Series?
We asked MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Tim Keown, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to tackle all things Tigers before they play host to the Minnesota Twins on “Sunday Night Baseball” (7 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN2).
Who is the biggest threat to Detroit in the AL — and would you take the Tigers to beat them in an ALCS showdown?
Doolittle: The Yankees still have the AL’s best roster and remain the favorites in the circuit, even with the Rays and Astros closing in fast on both Detroit and New York. This feels like a season in which, by the time we get to October, there’s not going to be a clear-cut front-runner in the AL. But if we zero in on a possible Tigers-Yankees ALCS, I like the interchangeability of the Detroit staff, which we saw in action late last year. Max Fried and Skubal cancel each other out, so it really comes down to the number of favorable matchups A.J. Hinch can manipulate during a series of games between two postseason offenses likely predicated on timely multi-run homers.
Keown: It’s obviously the Yankees — unless it’s the Rays. Tampa’s lineup is deep and insistent, and the pitching staff is exactly what it always seems to be: consistent, stingy and comprised of guys only hardcore fans can identify. They’re really, really good — by far the best big league team playing in a minor league ballpark.
Passan: It’s still the New York Yankees. They’ve got Aaron Judge, they’ve got Fried and Carlos Rodon for four starts, they’ve got better lineup depth than Detroit. Who wins the theoretical matchup could depend on how aggressively each team pursues improvement at the trade deadline. Suffice to say, the Tigers will not be trading Jack Flaherty this year.
Schoenfield: I was going to say the Yankees as well, but as I’m writing this I just watched the Astros sweep the Phillies, holding them to one run in three games. As great as Skubal has been, Hunter Brown has been just as good — if not better. (A couple of Brown-Skubal matchups in the ALCS would be super fun.) Throw in Framber Valdez and you have two aces plus one of the best late-game bullpens in the biz. The offense? Nothing great. The difference-maker is clear: getting Yordan Alvarez healthy and hitting again.
Who is the biggest threat to Detroit in the NL — and would you take the Tigers to beat them in a World Series matchup?
Doolittle: The Dodgers are the team to beat, full stop. In many ways, their uneven start to the season, caused by so many pitching injuries, represents the lower tier of L.A.’s possible range of outcomes. And the Dodgers still are right there at the top of the majors. I can’t think of any good reason to pick against them in any 2025 competitive context. In a Tigers-Dodgers World Series — which would somehow be the first one ever — I just can’t see the Tigers scoring enough to beat L.A. four times.
Keown: The Dodgers. No need to get cute here. The Dodgers are the biggest threat to just about everything baseball-related. And while the matchup would be a hell of a lot of fun, filled with all those contradictory juxtapositions that makes a series riveting, let’s just say L.A. in seven.
Passan: It’s still the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re getting healthier, with Shohei Ohtani back on the mound and still hitting more home runs than anyone in the National League. Will Smith is having the quietest .300/.400/.500 season in memory. Freddie Freeman is doing Freddie Freeman things. Andy Pages is playing All-Star-caliber baseball. Even Max Muncy is hitting now. And, yes, the pitching has been a problem, but they’ve got enough depth — and enough minor league depth to use in trades — that they’re bound to find 13 more-than-viable arms to use in October.
Schoenfield: A Tigers-Dodgers showdown would be a classic Original 16 matchup and those always feel a little more special. Although who wouldn’t want to see a rematch of the 1945, 1935, 1908 or 1907 World Series between the Tigers and Cubs? Those were split 2-2, so we need a tiebreaker. But I digress. Yes, the Dodgers are still the team to beat in the NL — especially since we’ve seen the Phillies’ issues on offense, the Cubs’ lack of pitching depth and the Mets’ inconsistency. The Dodgers have injuries to deal with, but there is still time for Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow and everyone else to get back.
One game, season on the line, who would you want on the mound for your team: Tarik Skubal or any other ace in the sport?
Doolittle: I’d go with Skubal by a hair over Zack Wheeler, with Paul Skenes lurking in the three-hole. The way things are going, by the end of the year it might be Jacob Misiorowski, but I’m probably getting ahead of myself. Anyway, Skubal has carried last season’s consistent dominance over and he’s just in that rare zone that great starters reach where you’re surprised when someone actually scores against them. He and Wheeler are tied with the most game scores of 70 or better (18) since the start of last season. Their teams are both 17-1 in those games. It’s a coin flip, but give me Skubal.
Keown: Skubal. There are plenty of other candidates — Wheeler, Fried, Jacob deGrom, and how about some love for Logan Webb? — but I’m all but certain a poll of big league hitters would reveal Skubal as the one they’d least like to face with everything riding on the outcome.
Passan: Give me Skubal. Even if others have the experience and pedigree, I’m going to bet on stuff. And nobody’s stuff — not even Skenes’ — is at Skubal’s level right now. He doesn’t walk anyone. He strikes out everyone. He suppresses home runs. If you could build a pitcher in a lab, he would look a lot like Skubal.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Wheeler, just based on his postseason track record: He has a 2.18 ERA over 70⅓ career innings in October, allowing no runs or one run in five of his 11 career starts. Those are all since 2022, so it’s not like we’re looking at accomplishments from a decade ago. And Wheeler is arguably pitching better than ever, with a career-low OPS allowed and a career-high strikeout rate.
What is Detroit’s biggest weakness that could be exposed in October?
Doolittle: I think elite October-level pitching might expose an overachieving offense. It’s a solid lineup but the team’s leading run producers — Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Baez, etc. — can pile up the whiffs in a hurry. If that happens, this is a team that doesn’t run at all, and that lack of versatility concerns me.
Keown: The Tigers are the odd team that doesn’t have a glaring weakness or an especially glaring strength. They have a lot of really good players but just one great one in Skubal. (We’re keeping a second spot warm for Riley Greene.) They’re managed by someone who knows how to navigate the postseason, and they’ve rolled the confidence they gained with last season’s remarkable playoff run into this season. So take your pick: Any aspect of the game could propel them to a title, and any aspect could be their demise. And no, that doesn’t answer the question.
Passan: The left side of Detroit’s infield is not what one might consider championship-caliber. With Trey Sweeney getting most of the at-bats at shortstop, the Tigers are running out a sub-replacement player on most days. Third base is even worse: Detroit’s third basemen are barely OPSing .600, and while they might have found their answer in McKinstry, relying on a 30-year-old who until this year had never hit is a risky proposition.
Schoenfield: I’m not completely sold on their late-game bullpen — or their bullpen in general. No doubt, Will Vest and changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle have done the job so far, but neither has a dominant strikeout rate for a 2025 closer and overall the Detroit bullpen ranks just 25th in the majors in strikeout rate. How will that play in the postseason against better lineups?
With one month left until the trade deadline, what is the one move the Tigers should make to put themselves over the top?
Doolittle: The big-ticket additions would be a No. 3 or better starting pitcher or a bona fide closer — the same stuff all the contenders would like to add. A lower-profile move that would really help would be to target a shortstop like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose bat actually improves what Detroit has gotten from the position just in terms of raw production. But he also adds contact ability, another stolen base threat and a plus glove. For the Tigers to maximize the title chances produced by their great start, they need to think in terms of multiple roster-filling moves, not one big splash.
Keown: Prevailing wisdom says to beef up the bullpen and improve the offense at third base, which would put names like Pete Fairbanks and Nolan Arenado at the top of the list. But the pitching and offense are both top-10 in nearly every meaningful statistic, and I contend there’s an equally good case to be made for the Tigers to go all in on a top-line starting pitcher. Providing Sandy Alcantara a fresh environment would deepen the rotation and lighten the psychic load on Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. (Every word of this becomes moot if the MLB return of 34-year-old KBO vet Dietrich Enns is actually the answer.)
Passan: Bring Eugenio Suarez home. The third baseman, who currently has 25 home runs and is slugging .569, signed with Detroit as an amateur in 2008 and spent five years in the minors before debuting in 2014. That winter, the Tigers traded him to Cincinnati for right-hander Alfredo Simon, who, in his only season in Detroit, posted a 5.05 ERA in 187 innings. Suarez’s power would fit perfectly in the Tigers’ lineup and is robust enough to get over the fence at Comerica Park, one of the largest stadiums in MLB.
Schoenfield: This is the beauty of the Tigers: They can go in any direction. As good as the offense has been, it feels like several of these guys are ripe for regression in the second half: Baez, McKinstry, maybe Torkelson and Gleyber Torres. That group is all way over their 2024 level of production. If those guys fade, an impact bat might be the answer. But is one available? Arenado certainly isn’t an impact bat anymore and might not be traded anyway. Maybe Eugenio Suarez if the Diamondbacks fade. But the likeliest and easiest answer: bullpen help.
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