Predictions for the World Juniors medal round: Who wins it all? Who takes home the awards?
-
Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
With the round robin complete, the focus shifts to the medal round of the 2025 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship. After an entertaining preliminary round with plenty of parity and intrigue, the stage is set for a classic medal round.
One wrinkle to note moving forward, there is a reseeding after the quarterfinal. The highest remaining seed based on group placement, points accrued, and goal differential (in that order) will play the lowest remaining seed. The top four teams are Sweden, United States, Czechia and Finland.
Given the lack of a set bracket, it is hard to predict all the way through, but we’ll give it our best shot, including tournament awards.
Finland takes on Slovakia in what should be an entertaining matchup. Both teams showed weakness in the preliminary round, with Finland getting shut out by Canada and beating the United States in overtime. Slovakia needed overtime to beat Kazakhstan, and a late winner against Switzerland after disappointing performances against Sweden and Czechia. Both teams have goaltenders capable of stealing a game, although Slovakia’s Samuel Urban has underperformed in the tournament.
The Finns are yet to have a standout offensive performance, and lack a real gamebreaker up front. They rank ninth on the power play, besting only Kazakhstan, and are shooting 6.37%. Their bright spot is their perfect penalty kill, something they will need to continue if they are to win low scoring games in the medal round. The Finns need more from Jesse Nurmi, Emil Hemming, Kosta Helenius and Kasper Halttunen on offense.
Slovakia’s medal hopes rest largely on the shoulders of Dalibor Dvorsky and Maxim Strbak, both playing in their fourth World Junior tournament. Dvorsky started slowly and was not as dominant as many expected him to be, but factored in four of five goals against Kazakhstan to secure the win. Strbak will be critical to keeping the best Finnish players off the scoresheet, while also contributing offensively. Dvorsky is a true gamebreaker for Slovakia, capable of scoring a key goal, creating scoring chances and putting the team on his back.
If Urban can play up to his potential and keep the Finns out, Slovakia has the advantage because of Dvorsky’s game-breaking ability. But for now, advantage Finland.
The American matchup against the Swiss should be a simple case of the the United States having far too much for Switzerland to handle in every aspect. The Americans are simply stronger in every area.
In goal, Trey Augustine will lead the way and has rounded into form. Cole Hutson and Zeev Buium are offensive dynamos on the back end who will eat minutes and drive offense. The first forward line of Gabriel Perreault, James Hagens and Ryan Leonard will likely be far too much for the Swiss to handle.
Further down the lineup, the Americans have players who check well, wear opponents down and hold the puck. Barring an outstanding performance in the Swiss goal and a calamitous offensive performance, the Americans should cruise through to the semifinal.
Sweden and Latvia should be similar to USA-Switzerland; however, the Latvians have proven they cannot be taken lightly.
Linards Feldbergs has been the tournament MVP thus far, carrying the Latvians to wins against Canada and Germany, earning a quarterfinal berth. The Swedes looked strong in the preliminary round led by Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Otto Stenberg and Anton Wahlberg.
The Latvians will work hard and create chances off the rush, but the Swedish depth should be too much for the Latvians to overcome. If Feldbergs has another rabbit in his mask, the Latvians have a chance — without that, expect Sweden to cruise to the semifinal.
In what will likely be the best matchup of the quarterfinals, Czechia and Canada will meet in the quarters for the second straight year. Canada looks to avenge last year’s disappointing loss in Sweden, and given Czechia’s offensive firepower, Canada has a big hill to climb.
The Czechs are getting solid production from Eduard Sale and Vojtech Hradec up front, and stable goaltending from Michael Hrabal. The Czechs have a tournament-leading 25 goals, rank top four on both special teams, and lead the tournament with a 19.7% shooting percentage; that shooting percentage will not continue in the medal round, as the bulk of the offensive production came in a 14-2 win against Kazakhstan. In their remaining three games, the Czechs scored 11 goals on 91 shots, for a 12.1% shooting percentage. That is far more sustainable and gives them an advantage against Canada.
Canada has struggled in every aspect of their game, aside from goaltending. Carter George has been excellent and will need to continue his run of play if Canada is to have a chance. Two things are plaguing Canada: a lack of finish, and undisciplined play. Canada opted to leave scorers at home in favor of penalty killers and checkers, something many pointed out prior to the start of the tournament. Fast forward to now, and Canada is struggling to score, they are the most undisciplined team in the tournament and the penalty killers have been ineffective.
Porter Martone, Carson Rehkopf and Gavin McKenna are not being deployed to maximize their offensive potential, and the rest of Canada’s forwards are not scoring at the expected level. Most of the scoring chances are coming from the outside, as Canada struggles to generate in the middle of the ice. Canada will need to get to the middle of the ice, avoid the penalty box (a tall task) and all that starts with the coaching staff altering the deployment of their offensive players.
As it stands, the Czechs have a distinct advantage, but no one will be surprised if Canada pulls it together and gets revenge for last year’s early exit.
Who wins the tournament?
Heading into the semis, it is fair to expect at least one quarterfinal upset. Slovakia and Canada are most likely to knock off their respective higher-seeded opponents, with Canada getting the advantage because of the goaltending.
Given the re-seeding, let’s say the semifinalists are Sweden, United States, Finland and Canada. That would mean we would get Sweden vs. Canada and United States vs. Finland. If the Czechs and Slovakians were to win, it would produce USA vs. Czechia and Sweden vs. Slovakia. Regardless of outcome, Sweden and the United States would be in excellent position to meet in the gold medal game — a rematch of last year’s championship affair.
This year, the Swedes are a deeper team and have a slight advantage over the United States. In a game that would be very close and could come down to overtime, Sweden’s mobile defense core and ability to create offense up and down their lineup may be the difference maker. Given the number of returnees with professional experience playing significant roles for Sweden (Sandin-Pellikka, Wahlberg, Felix Unger Sorum and Theo Lindstein), they should have an advantage as games get tighter and space is less available.
The Americans have the advantage with gamebreakers. Hagens, Perreault and Cole Eiserman are capable of creating and finishing scoring chances with lethal precision. Regardless of outcome, this game will come down to whether the Swedish depth can keep the American firepower at bay. If they can, the Swedes are well set up to avenge their silver medal in Sweden last year.
Individual awards
As for the tournament awards, it is hard to envision a scenario where Sandin-Pellikka and and U.S. defenseman Cole Hutson aren’t the two best, barring some otherworldly performance in the medal round by another blueliner.
In goal, if Carter George gets Canada anywhere near the gold medal game and keep a save percentage above .950, he will likely be a Directorate Award winner. If he can’t, one of Augustine or Hrabal could win the award with excellent performances in the medal round.
There are many options for tournament MVP, led by Sandin-Pellikka and Dvorsky. If Dvorsky can lead Slovakia to a medal, he will get a long look for top forward and tournament MVP. The foundation for these awards is set in the preliminary round, but the true decisions are made as the medal round progresses. Perreault has been quieter than expected, but if the top line heats up for the Americans, he’s got a shot at this award as well. Never count out a guy who can put the puck in the net the way that Perreault can.
-
Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer
Notre Dame‘s Marcus Freeman and Penn State‘s James Franklin are aware they are on the brink of making history in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday.
The winner will become the first Black head coach to take a team to the national championship game. Both were asked about that possibility during their respective news conferences Saturday previewing their matchup.
Franklin said it reminded him of Super Bowl XLI between Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith in 2007, the first Super Bowl featuring Black head coaches. Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Kansas State at the time, coaching for Ron Prince, another Black head coach.
“I remember thinking that, as a coach, how significant that was in the profession, and how significant that was for young coaches coming up in the profession, to see those guys in that role,” Franklin said. “I also remember, at that time, there were a lot of conversations about, ‘Will this impact the profession? Will this impact opportunities for guys?'”
At the time, there were six Black head coaches in college football, Franklin said. There are now 16 head coaches in 134 FBS programs, something Franklin described as progress.
“I know some people will say, ‘Well, that that’s not a huge increase,’ but it is an increase,” Franklin said. “At the end of the day, does this create opportunities for more guys to get in front of athletic directors? Does this create opportunities for search firms? I hope so. I think at the end of the day, you just want an opportunity, and you want to be able to earn it through your work and through your actions. I take a lot of pride in it.”
When Freeman was asked, he made sure to note that he is also half-Korean, a nod to his mother. But he also understands the significance of the moment.
“It’s a reminder that you are a representation for so many others that look like you, and I don’t take that for granted,” Freeman said. “I’m going to work tirelessly to be the best version of me, and it’s great, because even the guys in our program can understand, ‘Don’t put a ceiling on what you can be and what you can do.’
“Now, with that being said, it’s not about me. It’s about us. More than anything, I want to achieve team glory with this program.”
Freeman was also asked how he can inspire other young coaches who are watching him on this stage.
“If you want to impact the young people in this profession, you probably should do things to help them, and those are things that maybe after the season I could focus on trying to do,” Freeman said. “I want to be a representation. But that’s not enough. If you want to truly help some people, then you got to be one to make decisions and actions that truly help people.”
Franklin said he is honored to be in position to coach against Freeman in the semifinal.
“I’m honored to be able to compete against Notre Dame. Most importantly, I’m honored to represent Penn State and the young men in that locker room,” Franklin said. “For me to sit here and say that it’s not important, it’s not significant, that would not be accurate.”
-
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Penn State All-American defensive end Abdul Carter is working back from an apparent left arm injury, and while coach James Franklin said it’s “too early” to determine Carter’s status for the College Football Playoff semifinal against Notre Dame, there’s optimism about his return.
“At this point, I don’t think there’s anything stopping him from playing, but it’s going to come down to, how is he able to play?” Franklin said Saturday. “We’ll see. But his mentality is great. He’s excited about this week, but it’s too early to say at this stage.”
Carter left the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl against Boise State on Tuesday in the first quarter, not recording any statistics before exiting and not returning. No. 6 seed Penn State won 31-14 to advance to the Capital One Orange Bowl, where it will face No. 7 seed Notre Dame on Thursday night.
Carter, 6-foot-3 and 252 pounds, became Penn State’s first consensus All-America selection since Saquon Barkley in 2017. He also was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Lineman of the Year. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. lists Carter as the No. 2 prospect for the 2025 NFL draft, behind Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter of Colorado.
Carter posted a social media message Tuesday of Darth Vader in a bacta tank from the movie “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” indicating his recovery process from the injury.
“He’s doing great. His attitude is great. His mentality has been really good,” Franklin said. “We’ll see, but he’s taken the right approach and mentality, and it’s really going to come down to how he feels and how much practice he’s going to get during the week.”
Franklin does not usually provide injury updates about players who are not out for the season but understands the attention around Carter, who leads Penn State in sacks (11) and tackles for loss (21.5) and ranks second in quarterback hurries (8) and fourth in total tackles (63). A Philadelphia native, Carter moved from linebacker to defensive end this season under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. He has 22 career sacks, 37.5 tackles for loss, 5 forced fumbles, 1 interception and 13 passes defended.
Penn State players are off Saturday before returning to practice Sunday.
-
Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman says his team has to “expedite the preparation” with fewer days than Penn State to get ready for the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday.
During a news conference Saturday in South Bend, Indiana, Freeman was asked about the challenges presented after the team’s quarterfinal game against Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl was delayed one day following a deadly terrorist attack in New Orleans.
The Irish beat the Bulldogs 23-10 on Thursday, while Penn State beat Boise State 31-14 in its quarterfinal game Tuesday.
Freeman pointed out that his team came out of the Georgia game relatively healthy and is proceeding as if this is a normal game week. Notre Dame’s only significant injury was suffered by backup tight end Cooper Flanagan, who sustained a foot injury that will keep him out of the rest of the playoffs.
“How you handle the unpredictable things in life will determine the success, and so the greatest thing about this week is it’s just a normal game week,” Freeman said. “Now what we’ve got to do is utilize the time. We have to expedite the preparation because what you miss in terms of not having those couple days is the mental preparation of knowing exactly what to do. We’ve got to make sure we utilize every hour of the day to capitalize off of the preparation. For us, this is just game week.”
Freeman has led the Irish to the semifinals after a Week 2 loss at Northern Illinois that could have derailed the season. Instead, they treated every week like a playoff game and are now on the brink of playing for a national championship.
As a result, there is far more noise surrounding the program heading into the semifinal, something Freeman acknowledged. But he also knows it is important not to deviate from what got the Irish to this moment.
“I think it’s human nature to enjoy people saying good things about you,” Franklin said. “It’s human nature. But we’ve talked all year about being misfits. That’s what we have to continue to be. You have to make the choice to either waste time listening to people tell you how good you are or you’re going to put your time into preparing for this opportunity right in front of us. That’s been my message loud and clear, and we all have to make that choice.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway