Ranking all 16 NHL Winter Classics: Where does Blues-Blackhawks land?
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Winter Classic has been the NHL’s signature outdoor event since 2008, when the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres played through picturesque snow and launched an institution.
The St. Louis Blues’ 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks at Wrigley Field marked the 16th edition of the Winter Classic. Even when returning to previously used venues, the Classic continues to grow and change every season. Each game has its signature virtues — and in some cases, unique drawbacks.
Here’s a subjective ranking of the Classics and their relative greatness. We’ve assigned a score of 1 to 10 in four categories for each outdoor game:
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Environment, which covers the novelty of the venue and the elements that challenged teams during the game
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Hype, which covers the buzz leading up to the Winter Classic, as well as the allure of the teams involved
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The Game itself, and whether it was competitive, boring or rendered unwatchable by the conditions
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Style, as we consider how good the teams looked in their Winter Classic gear
Here is our ranking of the 16 Winter Classic events:
Environment: 7
Hype: 4
Game: 2
Style: 5
The NHL’s outdoor games can be split up into two eras: The one before Steve Mayer arrived as Chief Content Officer in 2015 and everything after it. He’s the one that helped bring the fun for these outdoor games, with quirky aesthetics, a real sense of staging and a boldness in scope.
The first Wrigley game in 2009 predated Mayer — and, frankly, the NHL’s cracking of the outdoor game code in general — so it was exciting to see what a return trip would yield. They leaned into the brick wall and ivy motif around the rink, and thus the friendly confines looked great. Alas, the weather didn’t always cooperate, with rain early in the game — though not enough to delay things.
There’s one fatal flaw to the 2025 Winter Classic: The Blackhawks were in no way worthy of the stage they were given, despite the presence of second-year star Connor Bedard. Mired in a rebuild, in a season that already saw them change coaches, the Blackhawks entered Wrigley in last place overall in the NHL. Their .351 points percentage at the time made them statistically the worst team ever featured in the Winter Classic, worse than the Buffalo Sabres‘ .368 points percentage for the Citi Field game.
To the surprise of no one, the Blues rolled to victory in this one, taking a 1-0 lead just 1:10 into the game and never looking back. But hey, at least there was a good center ice scrap between the captains, as Brayden Schenn asked Nick Foligno to drop the mitts and he obliged:
Brayden Schenn and Nick Foligno drop the mitts off the faceoff! 👊 #WinterClassic pic.twitter.com/aNhGfzXqcz
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 1, 2025
The Blues’ jersey was the bigger stylistic departure of the two, although incredibly this was the first time the Blackhawks wore red as their primary color in an outdoor game. Both looked good on the ice. The team’s walk-in outfits were drab bummers, but at least Chicago honored first responders with theirs and took the train to the game in a nice touch.
As far as hype goes, the move from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 might have caught some fans off guard, as the NHL avoided the first New Year’s Day set of games of the new college football playoff.
Environment: 4
Hype: 2
Game: 4
Style: 10
It didn’t rain. Oh, the NHL was prepared if Seattle lived up to its reputation, what with T-Mobile Park having a retractable roof. But it stayed open and the game was played in crisp, 44-degree weather.
In some ways, putting the NHL’s two newest franchises in a Winter Classic together made sense. Like many other matchups, they’re division rivals and the Golden Knights had the gravitas of having already won the Stanley Cup. But whether it was the newness of the teams or the lack of interesting venue, the game just didn’t not connect with fans, earning the lowest ever U.S. television ratings for a Winter Classic (1.1 million viewers).
It didn’t help that the game was a dud: Joey Daccord recorded the only shutout in Winter Classic history, 3-0 over Vegas. OK, a dud for the Golden Knights and for those tuning in for outdoor game offensive pyrotechnics, but pretty cool for Joey Daccord, who had at least one highlight reel save on Jack Eichel.
Speaking of highlights: The saving graces for the 2024 Winter Classic were the fashion and the fish.
Since neither team had their own history of sweaters to draw on, they got creative: The Kraken’s Winter Classic sweaters are inspired by the jerseys the Seattle Metropolitans wore in 1917 when they became the first U.S.-based team to win the Stanley Cup, while Vegas used the negative space ‘V’ in their logo as the basis for their jerseys. Both looked absolutely outstanding in the ice.
Also outstanding — although predictable — were the teams’ walk-in costumes. The Golden Knights came dressed as a Elvises (Elvi?). The Kraken were dresses as fishmongers. That was the precursor to perhaps the game’s most memorable moment: When Seattle strode to the rink under a “canopy” of tossed fish, inspired by Pike Place Market.
This @SeattleKraken Winter Classic entrance (with fish being thrown over them) goes hard pic.twitter.com/4VcFRnPvzy
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) January 1, 2024
It all ended up being a worthy swing for the NHL.
Environment: 4
Hype: 7
Game: 2
Style: 8
After pulling Chicago and Washington out of a hat for the 2015 edition, the NHL course-corrected back to an Original Six rivalry. The fans ate it up: 67,000 tickets were sold for the Winter Classic, and there were 42,000 in the house for the alumni game held the same weekend in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
The teams looked tremendous: Boston rocked a black-and-gold version of its 1924 inaugural season sweaters, while the Habs wore striking white jerseys inspired by that year as well — including a globe on the sleeves, which was actually the primary logo on those 1924-25 jerseys.
But the game … well, at least the Bruins got a participation ribbon. With backup goalie and Massachusetts native Mike Condon in net, the Canadiens built a 3-0 lead by the 17:20 mark of the second period and controlled the game in a way that would have made Bill Belichick squint in approval.
At an unremarkable venue with unremarkable weather, and with a Canadian market in an unremarkable game, this was the lowest-rated Winter Classic to date in the U.S. The weekend would also be remembered for heartbreaking reasons: Denna Laing, playing for the Boston Pride in the first Outdoor Women’s Classic, suffered a significant spinal cord injury in a collision with the boards on the eve of the Winter Classic and was stretchered off the ice. To this day, she continues to rehabilitate from that injury. Laing said in a Dec. 2024 Instagram post that she’s “made strides in my recovery.”
Environment: 6
Hype: 5
Game: 5
Style: 7
The Blackhawks had reached the perfunctory stage of their overexposure as an outdoor game foil. In this event, they were like a team of jobbers hired to make the crowd favorites look good, getting dominated for the last 40 minutes of the game.
This was all about St. Louis. It gave us an alumni game that featured Wayne Gretzky, Brett Hull and Martin Brodeur on the same team. It gave us perhaps the best Blues jerseys ever created — counterbalanced by another pedestrian Chicago sweater. And it officially started the Nelly renaissance years before he landed on “Dancing With The Stars.”
But the NHL hurt the game’s buzz with its scheduling, putting the Maple Leafs and Red Wings in an outdoor game in Toronto on Jan. 1 — and a good one at that — before playing this game on Jan. 2. The league wanted the Classic on a Monday to avoid Week 17 of the NFL schedule; it ended up pushing a game that was already struggling for hype into obscurity.
Environment: 5
Hype: 3
Game: 9
Style: 7
After years of pitting geographic and traditional rivals against each other, the NHL made the truly bizarre choice to pit teams from opposite conferences with no discernible association in its marquee event.
The result was a game seen by few people outside the D.C. area — the 3.47 million viewers in the U.S. were, at the time, the event’s smallest audience — which is a shame because it was one of the most exciting Winter Classics in history.
The Capitals took a 2-0 lead, and the Blackhawks rallied to tie before the third period. Troy Brouwer, who won a Stanley Cup with Chicago, scored the winning power-play goal with 13 seconds left in regulation to send a partisan crowd of nearly 43,000 fans into a frenzy.
The 40 degrees and sunny weather didn’t make for the best conditions for a hockey game, but the Nationals’ ballpark made for a gorgeous backdrop — including a replica of the Capitol and the reflecting pool near the rink.
The Blackhawks weren’t even trying to create anything interesting fashion-wise for yet another outdoor game appearance, basically wearing their normal road white sweaters. But the Capitals’ deep red jerseys — with a crest that evoked both the D.C. flag and the Washington Monument — were dope.
Plus, this was perhaps the only event in human history to have both Billy Idol and Lee Greenwood perform.
Environment: 8
Hype: 4
Game: 6
Style: 7
If there’s going to be a Winter Classic held in Minnesota, then by rights it should be the coldest on record. The 2022 game unlocked that achievement with a gametime temperature of minus-5.7 degrees Fahrenheit, putting the “winter” back in the Classic after the previous edition’s foray to Texas. The warmth of the sun had no home here — the game was held at night, too.
The Blues memorably rejected that climate by hilariously sporting beachwear as their walk-in fit, including Jake Walman wearing only a Winter Classic scarf around his bare chest while walking in sandals. Their fashion choice helped offset one of the worst jerseys in the Classic series: The Wild’s 1930s throwback that read “MPLS. St. Paul” and looked like a wrapped piece of candy your grandmother puts out for Christmas.
The game at Target Field was supposed to happen in 2021 but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The wait was worth it for the aesthetics: While the 12-year-old Target Field didn’t have the gravitas of other Classic venues, the combination of nature and pod hockey rinks on the field gave it instant “winter wonderland” character — along with those aforementioned sub-zero temps.
The game featured a four-point night from Jordan Kyrou, which was an outdoor game record, but the Blues blew the game open with five second-period goals. Not the most competitive night, but not the worst game either.
Environment: 5
Hype: 6
Game: 9
Style: 6
We have to admit to some recency bias in overpraising this game in Jan. 2018. The 10th anniversary edition of the Winter Classic was held at a venue that had capacity but not personality, even though the weather came through with freezing temperatures at game time. The most memorable things about Citi Field were the giant shadows it cast on the ice for the first period.
Also, the Rangers’ jerseys get a downgrade from our previous evaluation. Yes, they evoked the color scheme of the “Liberty Head” jerseys that were among the best in the NHL in the past 30 years. But as The Tennessean wrote in its Winter Classic jersey countdown, putting the Rangers second to last: “the 1926-inspired font looks more like something that’d be slapped on a roller hockey jersey.”
The Sabres wore classic white jerseys for the game, which brings us to another oddity about this event: Buffalo, located close to 375 miles from New York City, was the home team at this game. Much like the New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders were home teams at Yankee Stadium, the Sabres “hosted” the Rangers because the Blueshirts aren’t allowed to play a home game outside of Madison Square Garden due to tax exemption reasons.
All that said, the game was great: The Rangers took a 2-0 lead in the first period, and the Sabres rallied with goals in the second and third. For the first time since 2014, the game went to overtime, where J.T. Miller ended it for the Rangers.
After a couple of duds, a cool return to form for the Classic on a frigid New York day.
Environment: 7
Hype: 6
Game: 7
Style: 7
The Steve Mayer effect was evident in Boston, as there were clear differences between the 2010 Fenway Classic and the 2023 edition. There was the “first pitch with a puck” featuring Bobby Orr and Red Sox great Jason Varitek. He also moved the rink parallel to the Green Monster in left field, which meant that Fenway Park’s most unique seats were also arguably the best seats in the house for the NHL outdoor game, with glorious center ice views.
That said, the hype was hindered by being the first repeat venue for the Classic. But not the last.
The Penguins and Bruins got into the spirit by walking into Fenway in full Pirates and Red Sox throwback uniforms, respectively. Penguins goalie Casey DeSmith, who would take over for an injured Tristan Jarry in the game, even put on catcher’s gear.
(The jerseys for the event were of varying degrees of quality. Neither one compares favorably to ones these teams wore in previous outdoor games, however.)
The game lacked the offensive fireworks of other Winter Classics. For better or worse, it was one of the most “real” games played between two conference rivals. The Bruins pulled out the win with two third-period goals by Jake DeBrusk, an exhilarating comeback to send Boston fans home happy.
Environment: 4
Hype: 10
Game: 4
Style: 9
The hype for this game was off the charts: two blood-rival teams, and the NHL’s two biggest stars in Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin. Plus, the Penguins and Capitals were featured on the first season of HBO’s “24/7” series dedicated to the Winter Classic, which remains the season by which all other NHL reality shows are judged. (We’ll always remember you, sauce-faced, profanity-laced Bruce Boudreau.)
Alas, the hype was not met, either in quality of play or in venue aesthetics.
The 2011 Winter Classic will be remembered for two reasons. First, for having an 8 p.m. start time thanks to concerns about rain. At first, “under the lights” seemed cool, until one realized it killed much of the charm of the event. But hey, at least the teams looked good: Capitals throwbacks vs. Penguins dark blue alternates, featuring a penguin with a scarf on the logo.
Second, and more than somewhat related: It will be remembered for the injury Crosby suffered in a collision with Dave Steckel of the Capitals, which contributed to his missing most of 2011 with concussion-like symptoms.
When it came to this Winter Classic, getting there was all the fun.
Environment: 7
Hype: 7
Game: 8
Style: 7
The NHL returned to a college venue for the first time since 2014.
The upside was bringing hockey to an iconic venue, getting the chance to use Fighting Irish iconography around the rink and on briskly selling gear. The downside of using Notre Dame was that it meant the sixth outdoor game appearance for the Blackhawks, who held their training camps at the campus. (The Bruins were an obvious opponent, as anything in America even tangentially Irish must include either Notre Dame or the city of Boston.)
The venue looked great, but the game didn’t have the luck of the Irish, from running out of food and beer to the school’s leprechaun biting it at center ice.
Boston’s jerseys were a combination of different throwback looks and continued the Bruins’ trend of fine-looking sweaters. Alas, the Blackhawks chose to wear a jersey that looked like a photo negative and had more stripes than a referee training camp.
All that said, the game itself was one of the better ones, as the teams traded goals for two periods before Sean Kuraly scored at 10:20 of the third period to put Boston ahead for good. Tuukka Rask made 36 saves.
Also of note: Weezer performed its cover of “Africa” by Toto between periods. We’re still not sure how to factor that into the overall scoring. Perhaps it defies classification.
Environment: 8
Hype: 8
Game: 7
Style: 7
This game was notable for its firsts. Like the first overtime-winning goal in Classic history, scored by the Bruins’ Marco Sturm at 1:57, which followed Mark Recchi‘s tying goal late in the third period. For the first time in three Winter Classics, the home team won, and in dramatic fashion. Danny Syvret scored his first NHL goal in his first outdoor game. And, of course, the first fight in Winter Classic history occurred, between Shawn Thornton and Dan Carcillo, though one could not have expected anything else from the Flyers and Bruins.
Fenway was a great venue … in theory. There were awkward sightlines and seats that made it feel like you were watching the game from Plymouth.
Adding to the hype was that the 2010 U.S. Olympic roster was announced during the event. Detracting from the hype was that the NHL had just done a game in a historic baseball stadium — and a more entertaining game at that.
Environment: 9
Hype: 6
Game: 9
Style: 8
Forever remembered as the event that married NHL hockey with pig races.
The aesthetics at this game were among the best for any NHL outdoor event. The area around the rink had everything from giant cowboy boots to a square-dancing floor to a mechanical bull to the aforementioned sprinting swine, with hockey-centric names like Andrew “Hog-liano” and “Pork-a” Rinne. Outside was a Texas state fair-type midway complete with food and rides.
The game looked great, especially with the Stars’ victory green jerseys with “leather gloves.” The game sounded great, with 85,630 fans in attendance — second-most ever for a Winter Classic — and Dan + Shay playing during intermission.
The game actually was great, with the Stars rallying from a 2-1 deficit with four straight goals, three of them in the third period. Plus, drama: Stars forward Corey Perry received a five-minute major and a game misconduct for elbowing Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis in the head at 2:44 into the first period. Perry would earn a five-game suspension, which paled in comparison to the embarrassment he felt taking the world’s longest walk of shame.
Alas, there wasn’t much hype for these two divisional opponents. Fans had been conditioned to expect Original Six teams and glamour franchises in this event. Despite the venue and a terrific game, the Cotton Bowl classic was the lowest-rated Winter Classic to that point, and the first to draw under 2 million viewers.
Environment: 7
Hype: 9
Game: 9
Style: 8
Citizens Bank Park was less than a decade old when it hosted the Winter Classic. The weather was even less iconic: 45 degrees, with the game delayed due to sun glare before it was played through spotty drizzle. The Flyers had just appeared in the Classic two years earlier, so there wasn’t much novelty there, either.
Despite all that, few Classics can match the fun factor of this one, both in the lead-up to the event and the game itself.
The hype started with HBO’s “24/7,” which introduced us to the cosmic meanderings of Flyers goalie Ilya Bryzgalov and the snarly puppy dog that was Rangers coach John Tortorella. Then there was the alumni game that saw Eric Lindros make an emotional return to the Flyers organization. And there was controversy: In a surprise move, Bryzgalov sat for the Classic in favor of 23-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky.
The game itself was one of the best-played Classics from the second period on, right down to the Daniel Briere penalty shot that was stopped by Henrik Lundqvist with 19.6 seconds remaining to preserve the Rangers’ win — a penalty Tortorella claimed was part of an NBC conspiracy to extend the game into overtime, an accusation that earned him a hefty fine from the NHL.
Two compelling, rival teams filled with big personalities. It lacked the legendary status of the top three but certainly made up for it with the fun factor.
Environment: 9
Hype: 9
Game: 6
Style: 10
The first Winter Classic to stick a hockey rink inside a mythic sports venue. The second Winter Classic introduced some enduring concepts, like the NHL holding an outdoor fan fest, adding its own aesthetics — in this case, fake ivy on the outfield walls — and most of all, having the Blackhawks involved in an outdoor game.
It also saw the NHL adopt local traditions into its Winter Classic motif: Witness Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg joining Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita and Denis Savard to sing a variation on “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” with a few word changes to reference hockey.
Nearly 41,000 fans crowded Wrigley, and even more watched from rooftops across the street, as the Blackhawks and Red Wings put on an offensive show. The Blackhawks built a 3-1 lead by the end of the first period, and the Red Wings roared back with five straight goals to build a 6-3 lead at 3:24 of the third.
These teams looked incredible, too. The Red Wings’ “big D” jerseys are some of the best in Classic history, while the Blackhawks’ horizontal stripe sweaters were the most memorable they have worn in an outdoor game.
Alas, the temperature wasn’t much colder than it is for a Cubs game in April. Despite NBC broadcaster Pierre McGuire’s comments about “wind-assisted goals,” it wasn’t all that much of a factor at the Wrigley game.
Overall, the game itself was the most underwhelming part of the Winter Classic, which is a shame: The Red Wings were the defending Stanley Cup champions, their archrivals from Chicago were quickly ascending to challenge their throne. You almost felt cheated not seeing these two battle it out in a vacuum in an arena instead of inside of a baseball stadium.
Environment: 10
Hype: 10
Game: 6
Style: 8
The greatest praise that can be given to the first Winter Classic is that our vivid, happy memories of the snow globe in Buffalo have plastered over all those lengthy Zamboni appearances and ice-repair delays.
Oh, but those memories. Those 71,217 frozen puckheads, some of them shirtless, watching baby blue Penguins jerseys peek out through the steadily falling snow. Seeing players battle those elements, skating through clouds of their own breath in the frigid air. In the end, seeing Sidney Crosby win the game in the shootout with the flurries falling, as if Gary Bettman himself had scripted it.
The hype for the game was off the charts. It was an instant signature television event, even if a good portion of the massive viewing audience — the game garnered the highest ratings for a regular-season NHL game since 1996 — was just tuning in to see if the NHL could build a rink in a football stadium in seven days and actually pull this event off.
It’s the “Iron Man” of NHL stadium events: If it was unwatchable and failed to connect with the fans, then the NHL Outdoor Game Universe might have never launched. But while this was the first Classic, it wasn’t the best.
Environment: 10
Hype: 10
Game: 8
Style: 9
This was a special kind of cold. The seat cushions handed to the 105,491 hockey fans at the Big House — an NHL record — could barely protect their posteriors from the numbing metal benches. The balls inside the linesmen’s whistles froze in place during the game. Snow fell, winds whipped. It was truly hockey vs. the elements that day in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
All of it helped create a legendary environment for the outdoor game. So did the split loyalties in the crowd, which was dotted with blue Maple Leafs jerseys and contrasting with Red Wings jerseys. On the ice, the teams’ throwback jerseys — both wore full-color uniforms — were among the best looking in the event’s history.
Impossible as it might seem, the game was actually good! Jonathan Bernier saw 43 Red Wings shots sail his way, and Detroit needed a late third-period goal to force overtime. Toronto won in a shootout on a Tyler Bozak tally, sending tens of thousands back over the border happy.
An entertaining game, in many ways, is the cherry on top for a Winter Classic. There are other aspects more central to the event’s success. Like having a compelling matchup, challenging winter conditions and a memorable venue with a personality of its own. But a great Winter Classic should also be a celebration of hockey: To that end, the Leafs and Wings played an alumni game doubleheader at Comerica Park in Detroit because they had so many darn great players who wanted in, and so many fans who wanted to watch them.
The Winter Classic at the Big House satisfied all these obligations. Which is why it’s the classic among Classics.
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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Kiley McDaniel
Now that the 2025 MLB draft is complete, it’s the perfect time for our next team-by-team MLB prospect rankings big board update. The top 10 prospects for all 30 teams are updated below — with 2025 draft picks included.
What has changed since our last in-season list update?
Here are the rankings for your favorite team, along with what to know for this month and who we expect to reach the majors next. Players in the big leagues are eligible for this update as MLB rookie eligibility rules apply here — 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster. All 30 of these lists will be updated throughout the season.
More: Draft recap for all 30 teams | Tracker | Day 1 winners & losers
Jump to team:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
AL East
Where they stand entering trade season: They added Irish, Aloy, Bodine, and de Brun in the first round of the draft, along with lots of added depth beyond that. The O’s seem primed to be adding prospects at the deadline after their disappointing first half.
Where they stand entering trade season: Witherspoon was Boston’s top pick in the draft, and Marcus Phillips and Anthony Eyanson were the next two and ranked in the No. 11-18 area. Marcelo Mayer graduated and Roman Anthony is close to graduating, so the farm rank will slip more in the offseason, especially if the Sox use prospects to add at the deadline.
Where they stand entering trade season: There’s some pitching depth in the system beyond this top 10 and there’s enough to deal from here to make some real additions to the big league team later this month — but more like rentals and role players than stars.
Where they stand entering trade season: The Rays’ system is extremely deep, with the No. 14 pick in the draft barely making their top 10, and they landed five of my top 75 players on my board even after trading the 37th pick just before draft day. I could see Tampa Bay being making some light subtractions from the system at the deadline to upgrade the big league team.
Where they stand entering trade season: The Jays had a pitching-heavy top of the farm system entering the 2025 draft and landed a number of position players. Parker slots into the MLB top 100 and Jake Cook, Tim Piasentin and Blaine Bullard are all just outside of this team list. Jared Spencer, who also just missed this list as a 2025 11th-round pick, is a potential rebound candidate as he had top 50-pick buzz before shoulder surgery.
AL Central
Where they stand entering trade season: Edgar Quero and Chase Meidroth have graduated this season. Carlson was the White Sox’s first-round pick and Jaden Fauske — their second pick — ranks 11th. The Sox figure to be adding more prospects at the deadline.
Where they stand entering trade season: The next 2025 draftee (Dean Curley) after LaViolette slots in about a half-dozen spots outside of the top 10 of this deep system.
It seems as if the Guardians might be adding young players at the deadline and they won’t be graduating any other prime prospects, so the outlook into the offseason is up for the system.
Where they stand entering trade season: Jackson Jobe, Jace Jung, Brant Hurter, Trey Sweeney, Sawyer Gipson-Long and Dillon Dingler all graduated this season, and Detroit’s top three 2025 draft picks all snuck into the top 10. I’d guess the prospects in play for potential deadline upgrades start with Lee and go lower down the list, unless the return is a star with years of control.
Where they stand entering trade season: Noah Cameron graduated and the top three 2025 draft picks just made the top 10. Right now, the Royals look closer to adding prospects at the deadline rather than looking for big league upgrades.
Where they stand entering trade season: Houston and Young snuck on the list after being taken Sunday night, and compensation first-rounder Riley Quick just missed, along with infielders Tanner Schobel and Kyle DeBarge.
AL West
Where they stand entering trade season: Arnold and Taylor were the A’s top two draft picks and Perkins has had a strong last month or so, giving him the edge in a deep group in the mix for the last spot. It would appear the A’s are also primed to add prospects to the system at the deadline.
Where they stand entering trade season: The last two cuts from the list are the next best 2025 draftees: Jase Mitchell and Ethan Frey. Cam Smith, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb, and Colton Gordon have all graduated from the list this year and trade deadline reinforcements could further hit this system.
Where they stand entering trade season: 2025 second-round pick Chase Shores joins the higher-end prep arm from last year’s draft class (Trey Gregory-Alford) and the as-yet-unsigned ones from this year’s draft class (Johnny Slawinski, Talon Haley, C.J. Gray, Xavier Mitchell, Luke Lacourse) just outside of the top 10.
Where they stand entering trade season: Cole Young graduated recently and Anderson was added as the No. 3 pick. Luke Stevenson and Nick Becker (the M’s next two picks) are among the first few players just off of the list along with Tai Peete and Logan Evans.
There’s more than enough here to make a pretty big trade if Seattle wanted to, but I’m guessing Tyler Locklear is the first guy on the list that the Mariners could trade who wouldn’t hurt future plans too much.
Where they stand entering trade season: Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Alejandro Osuna have graduated this year, Alejandro Rosario is out for the year because of elbow surgery and Winston Santos has made only two appearances this season. I’m a huge Fien believer, as covered in my draft previews and rankings, and Scarborough and Fitz-Gerald are the arrow-up incumbents in the system. Yolfran Castillo just missed the list but has big tools.
NL East
Where they stand entering trade season: Southisene, McKenzie and Lodise were all added in this year’s draft, and last year’s top pick Caminiti has taken over the top spot. I’m still a long-term believer in Fuentes despite his 13.85 ERA in four big league starts. The Braves posture at the deadline will be fascinating to monitor.
Where they stand entering trade season: Agustin Ramirez and Graham Pauley graduated this year. Kemp Alderman was the last cut and 2025 draft picks Brandon Compton, Max Williams and Drew Faurot fit within the top 20 to 25.
The Marlins have really accumulated a lot of depth throughout the system with a focus on position players, even if there isn’t a clear star hitter in this group. If play development progress continues, there could be the core of a playoff team in a year or two.
Where they stand entering trade season: Because of a depth of quality prospects in the system, Mitch Voit isn’t in the top 15 after being the Mets’ first 2025 draft pick. Jacob Reimer, Jonathan Santucci and Elian Pena are among those who just missed this list that would make the top 10 for many teams.
Where they stand entering trade season: You’d have to believe the Phillies will be adding at the deadline again and any players in this top six could be major parts of a real trade package. Wood can’t be traded before the deadline and the players below him have value that will vary from team to team.
Where they stand entering trade season: It seems the Nationals will use the savings on Willits at the No. 1 pick on high schoolers Landon Harmon, Coy James, Miguel Sime Jr., and possibly Mason Pike, who all rank just outside of this top 10 but come with big upsides if everything clicks. The Nats should add more prospects at the deadline and only House and maybe Cavalli seem likely to graduate before the season ends.
NL Central
Where they stand entering trade season: Cade Horton and Matt Shaw have graduated during the season, and Birdsell just returned to the mound. Conrad was the Cubs’ first-round pick and Hartshorn (sixth round, No. 55 on my board) is narrowly ahead of second-round pick Kane Kepley (No. 57 on my board), who are both just ahead of Kaleb Wing (fourth round). The last couple of spots on the list could change by the end of the season.
Where they stand entering trade season: Shortstops Sammy Stafura and Edwin Arroyo were the last two cuts, and you could justify flipping them with the last two players on the list. The Reds are still in the playoff race and Burns probably will graduate in the next month, so this system will slip a bit from here.
Where they stand entering trade season: Third baseman Andrew Fischer, a 2025 first-rounder, is among the next few players outside of the top 10. This might be the deepest system in all of baseball and is a good example of how this organization can keep competing almost every year, because the pipeline is pretty full right now.
Where they stand entering trade season: Right-hander Angel Cervantes, a 2025 second-rounder, joins last year’s highly drafted prep righty Levi Sterling (pretty similar prospects, both from Southern California) in just missing the list.
The Pirates would seem likely to be adding prospects at the deadline but also could promote Chandler at any point and his graduation would obviously hurt the system ranking in the winter.
Where they stand entering trade season: The Cards are still right in the thick of the wild-card race and there is some real depth to the catching and starting pitching in the system, but it’s unclear if the organization will choose to push chips into the middle at the deadline or in aggressively promoting Doyle to potentially help in the big leagues this summer.
NL West
Where they stand entering trade season: The top of the list has been steady for the last month or so and the last cut this month is last year’s surprise No. 35 pick shortstop J.D. Dix, who is arrow-up in the last month or two. This system has a chance to continue improving if the D-backs decide to add prospects in deadline trades.
Where they stand entering trade season: Chase Dollander and Adael Amador have graduated, and compensation second-round pick Max Belyeu ranks 11th. The Rockies are a disaster at the big league level, so they should be adding some prospects at the deadline.
Where they stand entering trade season: Roki Sasaki, Dalton Rushing and Justin Wrobleski graduated this season, but the system is still deep. Top 2025 draft picks Zach Root and Charles Davalan both come in around 15th in the system. The Dodgers have plenty of prospects they could deal to continue upgrading their big league roster at the deadline.
Where they stand entering trade season: 2025 draft pick Ty Harvey and Bradgley Rodriguez were two of the late cuts. With two full draft classes since the Padres cleared out their system depth in deals for major leaguers, there are now some interesting players here who could be part of a playoff team one day.
De Vries is definitely off limits for potential deadline deals and I think Salas’ value is down to where it wouldn’t be smart to trade him, so anyone below Schoolcraft (who can’t be traded until the winter) would seem to be on the table for the right player.
Where they stand entering trade season: Gonzalez has been solid in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League, and Level has been making his stateside debut in Arizona. I’d imagine the prospects who could be moved at the deadline start at Whitman, or even lower on the list.
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