Trump 2.0, conflict in Ukraine to end and China challenging global world order – what can we expect in 2025?
What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.
From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.
But it’s not all bad news…
Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States
by Mark Stone, US correspondent
Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.
Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.
A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.
The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.
With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.
Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.
Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP
Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.
Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.
There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.
Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.
On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.
On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.
On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.
There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.
Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.
Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover
by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.
The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.
He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.
France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.
Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.
Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.
Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.
Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.
The Middle East: anything but predictable
by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.
2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.
But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.
Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.
Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.
There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.
The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.
Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.
That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.
Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.
And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.
But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.
Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order
by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing
The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.
Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.
Since the election, he has said he’s planning an extra 10% on top of existing tariffs on Chinese products.
Beijing is bracing for trouble and is already engaged in retaliatory trade action with the US. Watch this issue heat up next year.
The US is expected to increase tariffs on Chinese chips next year as competition heats up. Pic: FeatureChina via AP
Diplomatically, while there are efforts to turn the fraught UK-China relationship around, it’s likely spying allegations and accusations of Chinese political interference – which Beijing vehemently denies – will continue to test both countries.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.
In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.
In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.
Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.
They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.
Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.
Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News he’d be willing to cede territory, while Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to compromise.
It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.
Pic: Reuters
I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.
But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.
In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech
by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
The year is ending with building protest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.
The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.
Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.
Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.
Not all news is negative, though.
Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.
World
Myanmar frees more than 6,000 prisoners as country marks anniversary of independence from Britain
More than 6,000 prisoners have been released in Myanmar as part of an amnesty to mark the 77th anniversary of the country’s independence from Britain.
The head of Myanmar’s military government has granted amnesties for 5,864 prisoners from the Southeast Asian country, as well as 180 foreigners who will now be deported, state-run media said.
The freed inmates included just a small proportion of hundreds of political detainees locked up for opposing army rule since the military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Myanmar’s military takeover in February 2021 was met with a huge nonviolent resistance, which has since developed into a widespread armed struggle.
A released prisoner waves after leaving the jail. Pic: AP
The freeing of prisoners began on Saturday and in Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, buses took detainees out of the Insein Prison. Many were met by loved ones who eagerly held up signs with their names.
If the freed inmates break the law again, they will have to serve the remainder of their sentences alongside any new ones, the terms of release state.
In another report, MRTV television said government leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has also reduced the life sentences of 144 prisoners to 15 years.
Family members held signs with their loved ones’ names as the buses appeared. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
All other inmates’ sentences have been reduced by one sixth, apart from those convicted under the Explosive Substances Act, the Unlawful Associations Act, the Arms Act and the Counterterrorism Law – all laws which are often used against opponents of military rule.
According to rights organisation the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, 28,096 people have been arrested on political charges since the army takeover, and 21,499 of those remained in jail as of Friday.
Read more:
Special report – 30 days in Myanmar
Sky News wins Emmy for war coverage
Released prisoners are hugged by loved ones and family. Pic: AP
Zaw Min Tun, a spokesperson for the military government, told journalists those released include about 600 people prosecuted under a law which makes it a crime to spread comments that create public unrest or fear, or spread false news.
There has been no suggestion the releases include that of Myanmar’s former leader Suu Kyi, who – now aged 79 – is serving a 27-year sentence after being prosecuted for a number of politically-tinged charges.
Aung San Suu Kyi. File pic: Reuters
Most of the foreigners being freed are Thai people arrested for gambling in a border town, the spokesperson added.
It is not uncommon for Myanmar to mark holidays and significant occasions with prisoner releases.
The country became a British colony in the late 1800s and regained independence on 4 January 1948.
Drive an hour outside China’s commercial capital Shanghai, and you’ll reach Elon Musk’s Tesla gigafactory.
It manufactures almost one million Tesla cars a year and produces more than half of all its cars worldwide.
But with US president-elect Donald Trump preparing to move into the White House, the relationship between his new buddy Elon Musk and the leadership of China‘s Communist Party is in sharp focus.
Tesla’s Shanghai gigafactory. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Shanghai has been the key to Tesla’s success, largely thanks to the city’s former Communist Party secretary, now China’s premier, Li Qiang.
Chief executive of Shanghai-based Auto Mobility Limited, Bill Russo, says: “Qiang is China’s number two person. His position in Shanghai made everything possible for Tesla.”
He added: “In 2017, China adjusted its policy guidelines for the automotive industry to allow foreign companies to own their factories in China.
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Musk, Trump and China explained
“Tesla signed its deal in 2018, broke ground in 2019, and started producing the Model 3 in 2020.”
The factory opened at breakneck speak and in record time.
In April, Musk met Qiang in Beijing, later posting on X: “Honoured to meet with Premier Li Qiang. We have known each other now for many years, since early Shanghai days.”
Elon Musk met Chinese premier Li Qiang in Beijing in April 2024. Pic: AP
The Musk-China ties go all the way to the top.
When China’s President Xi Jinping visited the US in November 2023 he met Musk, who posted: “May there be prosperity for all” – echoing the language often used by China’s government.
Read more:
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Inside a Tesla showroom in Shanghai. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Musk has previously weighed into the debate over the status of Taiwan. Two years ago, he suggested tensions could be eased by giving China some control over Taiwan.
This comment incensed Taiwan’s leaders.
Chinese commentator Einar Tangen, from the Taihe Institute in Beijing, says: “If Musk had said anything else, he could face action against the Shanghai plants. He’s not going to endanger that. He’s playing both sides for his own advantage.”
What’s in it for China?
Musk needs China, and in the months to come, China may need Musk.
He could act as a well-connected middleman between the Chinese Communist Party and Trump, in the face of a potential global trade war.
“Like it or not, we are living in a world where China is the dominant player in the race to an electric future,” says Russo.
Musk pioneered the EV industry in China, but is now struggling to compete with local car brands like BYD and Nio.
Elon Musk’s support helped propel Donald Trump to a second term in the White House. Pic: AP
The relationship between Musk and Trump could become volatile, but for now, Musk stands to benefit.
“Donald Trump has never had a problem giving exceptions to friends,” Tangen says.
“It fits his personality, that he can grant pardons and give favours to the people and companies he chooses.”
Musk ‘the pioneer’
Musk is well regarded as a pioneer in China and most people speak of him highly.
Strolling along the Bund waterfront area in Shanghai, Benton Tang says: “Tesla really impacted the entire industry here.
“It pushed people to develop and improve the quality, the design and especially the price.”
Chinese vehicle manufacturers like BYD provide stiff competition for Tesla. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Interest in the Musk family has also gripped China’s online community.
His mother, Maye Musk, frequently visits the country, where she has a huge social media following as a senior-age celebrity fashion icon and endorses several Chinese products including a mattress brand.
Her book, A Woman Makes A Plan, has been translated into Chinese and is a bestseller here.
Maye Musk. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, as the countdown to Trump’s inauguration gains pace, the spotlight on the president-elect’s coterie of advisers intensifies.
In the middle of the glare is Elon Musk.
China waits to see what that will mean for them.
Did the authorities fail the victims of the New Orleans terror attack? It’s barely in question, surely.
And yet, consider the response of Superintendent Anne Kirkpatrick of New Orleans police when I asked if she’d let them down by not having an appropriate security plan.
“That’s not correct, we would disagree with that.”
“It has to be a security failure?” I suggested.
Pic: Reuters
“We do know that people have lost their lives,” she responded. “But if you were experienced with terrorism, you would not be asking that question.”
With that, she was escorted away from gathered journalists by her media handlers.
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How much of a threat does ISIS pose?
Superintendent Kirkpatrick had been holding a short news conference at the end of Bourbon Street to herald its re-opening. It was just yards from the spot where a terrorist was able to drive through a gap in a makeshift line of obstructions and accelerate towards New Year crowds.
Invoking “experience with terrorism” is something to ponder. What experience told authorities they had adequate protection against a vehicle attack?
What experience told them it was appropriate to have a car’s width gap in makeshift street barricades?
What experience told them to contradict the security protocols of major cities around the world when it comes to large public gatherings?
Read more on this story:
What we know about the suspect
Brother of attack victim reveals last words
The victims who have been named so far
Pic: Reuters
To many, the answer shouldn’t be talk of experience – it should be, simply: “Sorry.” Notably, it has seemed to be the hardest word in a series of briefings by authorities who have bristled at the notion of security failings.
I asked Jack Bech for his view. He lost his brother Martin, or ‘Tiger’ in the Bourbon Street attack. He told Sky News he watched the final moments of his brother’s life on a FaceTime call to an emergency room as doctors tried, but failed, to save him.
It’s one heartbreaking story among dozens in this city.
Tiger Bech (left) and Jack Bech (right). Pic: Jack Bech
On security, he said: “You can’t blame them. That dude easily could have been walking through the crowd with a jacket on and a bomb strapped to his chest.”
True. But the least that might be expected is an acknowledgement of failure to stop the man who drove his weapon into the crowd because he was able to. They certainly can’t claim success.
A measure of contrition would, perhaps, help the healing in this city. Experience should tell them that, if nothing else.
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