What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.
From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.
But it’s not all bad news…
Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States by Mark Stone, US correspondent
Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.
Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.
A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.
The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.
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With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.
Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.
Image: Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP
Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.
Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.
There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.
Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.
On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.
On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.
On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.
There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.
Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.
Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.
The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.
He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.
France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.
Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.
Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.
Image: Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.
Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.
The Middle East: anything but predictable by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.
2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.
But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.
Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.
Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.
There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.
The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.
Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.
That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.
Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.
And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.
But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.
Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing
The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.
Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.
In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.
In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.
Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.
They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.
Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.
Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.
It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.
Image: Pic: Reuters
I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.
But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.
In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
The year is ending with buildingprotest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.
The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.
Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.
Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.
Not all news is negative, though.
Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.
At least 59 Palestinians have reportedly been killed after the Israeli military opened fire near an aid centre in Gaza and carried out strikes across the territory.
The Red Cross, which operates a field hospital in Rafah, said 25 people were “declared dead upon arrival” and “six more died after admittance” following gunfire near an aid distribution centre in the southern Gazan city.
The humanitarian organisation added that it also received 132 patients “suffering from weapon-related injuries” after the incident.
The Red Cross said: “The overwhelming majority of these patients sustained gunshot wounds, and all responsive individuals reported they were attempting to access food distribution sites.”
The organisation said the number of deaths marks the hospital’s “largest influx of fatalities” since it began operations in May last year.
The IDF has said it fired “warning shots” near the aid distribution site but it was “not aware of injured individuals” as a result.
It said in a statement: “Earlier today, several suspects were identified approaching IDF troops operating in the Rafah area, posing a threat to the troops, hundreds of metres from the aid distribution site.
“IDF troops operated in order to prevent the suspects from approaching them and fired warning shots.”
Image: Palestinians mourn a loved one following the incident near the aid centre. Pic: Reuters
Mother’s despair over shooting
Somia Alshaar told Sky News her 17-year-old son Nasir was shot dead while visiting the aid centre after she told him not to go.
She said: “He went to get us tahini so we could eat.
“He went to get flour. He told me ‘mama, we don’t have tahini. Today I’ll bring you flour. Even if it kills me, I will get you flour’.
“He left the house and didn’t return. They told me at the hospital: your son…’Oh God, oh Lord’.”
Asked where her son was shot, she replied: “In the chest. Yes, in the chest.”
Image: Somia Alshaar, pictured with her daughter, says her son was shot dead. Pic: Reuters
‘A policy of mass murder’
Hassan Omran, a paramedic with Gaza’s ministry of health, told Sky News after the incident that humanitarian aid centres in Gaza are now “centres of mass death”.
Speaking in Khan Younis, he said: “Today, there were more than 150 injuries and more than 20 martyrs at the aid distribution centres… the Israeli occupation deliberately kills and commits genocide. The Israeli occupation is carrying out a policy of mass murder.
“They call people to come get their daily food, and then, when citizens arrive at these centres, they are killed in cold blood.
“All the victims have gunshot wounds to the head and chest, meaning the enemy is committing these crimes deliberately.”
Israel has rejected genocide accusations and denies targeting civilians.
Image: Two boys mourn their brother at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Pic: Reuters
‘Lies being peddled’
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial US and Israeli-backed group which operates the distribution centre near Rafah, said: “Hamas is claiming there was violence at our aid distribution sites today. False.
“Once again, there were no incidents at or in the immediate vicinity of our sites.
“But that’s not stopping some from spreading the lies being peddled by ‘officials’ at the Hamas-controlled Nasser Hospital.”
The Red Cross said its field hospital in Rafah has recorded more than 250 fatalities and treated more than 3,400 “weapon-wounded patients” since new food distribution sites were set up in Gaza on 27 May.
Image: Palestinians inspect the wreckage after an Israeli airstrike in Deir al Balah. Pic: AP
It comes after four children and two women were among at least 13 people who died in Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, after Israeli strikes pounded the area starting late on Friday, officials in Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the territory said.
Fifteen others died in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to Nasser Hospital.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not responded to a request for comment on the reported deaths.
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Israeli has been carrying out attacks in Gaza since Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages on 7 October 2023.
Hamas still holds 50 hostages, with fewer than half of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
US President Donald Trump has said he is closing in on another ceasefire agreement that would see more hostages released and potentially wind down the war.
But after two days of talks this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there were no signs of a breakthrough.
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The latest fatalities in Gaza comes as a 20-year-old Palestinian-American man was beaten to death by settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Friday, the Palestinian Health ministry said.
Sayafollah Musallet, also known as Saif, was killed during a confrontation between Palestinians and settlers in Sinjil, north of Ramallah, the ministry said.
A second man, Hussein Al-Shalabi, 23, died after being shot in the chest.
Mr Musallet’s family, from Tampa Florida, has called on the US State Department to lead an “immediate investigation”.
A State Department spokesperson said it was aware of the incident but it had no further comment “out of respect for the privacy of the family and loved ones” of the reported victim.
The Israeli military said the confrontation broke out after Palestinians threw rocks at Israelis, lightly injuring them.
As investigators continue to piece together the full picture, early findings of the Air India crash are pointing towards a critical area of concern — the aircraft’s fuel control switches.
The flight, bound for London Gatwick, crashed just moments after taking off from Ahmedabad airport on 12 June, killing all but one of the 242 people on board the plane and at least 19 on the ground.
According to the preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), the two engine fuel control switches on the plane were moved from the “RUN” to “CUTOFF” position.
These switches control fuel flow to the engines and should only be used when the aircraft is on ground, first to start the engines before a flight and later to shut them down at the gate.
They are designed so they’re unlikely to be changed accidentally, pointing to possible human error on the Air India flight.
The findings include the final conversation between the pilots and show there was confusion in the cockpit as well.
When one pilot asked the other why he cut off the fuel, he responded to say he did not do so.
Image: The Air India plane before the crash. Pic: Takagi
Moments later, a Mayday call was made from the cockpit, but the plane could not regain power quickly enough and plummeted to the ground.
Captain Amit Singh, founder of Safety Matters Foundation, an organisation dedicated to aviation safety, told Sky News: “This exchange indicates that the engine shutdowns were uncommanded.
“However, the report does not identify the cause – whether it was crew error, mechanical malfunction, or electronic failure.”
Previous warning of ‘possible fuel switch issue’
“The Boeing 787 uses spring-loaded locking mechanisms on its fuel control switches to prevent accidental movement,” Mr Singh explained.
But a previous bulletin from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) “warned that these switches might be installed with the locking feature disengaged,” he said.
This could “make them susceptible to unintended movement due to vibration, contact, or quadrant flex”, he added.
Image: The plane’s tail lodged in a building. Pic: Reuters
Speaking to Sky News, aviation expert Terry Tozner said: “The take-off was normal, the aircraft rotated at the correct speed left the ground and almost immediately, the cut-off switches were selected to off, one then two.
“But nobody has said with any clarity whether or not the latch mechanisms worked okay on this particular aircraft. So we can only assume that they were in normal working order.”
In India, there has been a backlash over the findings, with some saying the report points to pilot error without much information and almost dismisses the possibility of a mechanical or electric failure.
Indian government responds
India’s civil aviation minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu has been quick to respond, saying: “We care for the welfare and the wellbeing of pilots so let’s not jump to any conclusions at this stage, let us wait for the final report.
“I believe we have the most wonderful workforce of pilots and crew in the whole world.”
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India plane crash survivor carries brother’s coffin
Both pilots were experienced, with around 19,000 flying hours between them, including more than 9,000 on Boeing 787s.
The report says the aircraft maintenance checks were on schedule and that there are no signs of fuel contamination or a bird strike.
So far, no safety recommendations have been issued to Boeing or General Electric, the engine manufacturers.
Concern over destroyed flight recorder
Mr Singh said “the survivability of the flight recorders also raises concern”.
The plane’s rear flight recorder, designed to withstand impact forces of 3,400 Gs and temperatures of 1,100C for 60 minutes, “was damaged beyond recovery”.
“The Ram Air Turbine (RAT), which deploys automatically when both engines fail and power drops below a threshold, was observed as deployed in CCTV footage when the aircraft was approximately 60ft above ground level,” Mr Singh said.
“This suggests that the dual engine failure likely occurred before the official timestamp of 08:08:42 UTC, implying a possible discrepancy.”
Image: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the crash site. Pic: X/AP
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Mr Singh said it was also “of particular note” that the plane’s emergency locator transmitter (ELT) did not send any signal after the crash.
“Was the ELT damaged, unarmed, mis-wired, or malfunctioning?” he said.
The report has generated more questions than answers on topics including human error, power source failures and mechanical or electrical malfunction.
The final report is expected to take a year. Meanwhile, families grapple with the unimaginable loss of loved ones in one of the worst disasters in India’s aviation history.
Donald Trump has announced he will impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union from 1 August.
The tariffs could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the US.
Mr Trump has also imposed a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico, according to a post from his Truth Social account.
Announcing the moves in separate letters on the account, the president said the US trade deficit was a national security threat.
In his letter to the EU, he wrote: “We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”
In his letter to Mexico, Mr Trump said he did not think the country had done enough to stop the US from turning into a “narco-trafficking playground”.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said today that the EU could adopt “proportionate countermeasures” if the US proceeds with imposing the 30% tariff.
Ms von der Leyen, who heads the EU’s executive arm, said in a statement that the bloc remained ready “to continue working towards an agreement by Aug 1”.
“Few economies in the world match the European Union’s level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,” she continued.
“We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Ms von der Leyen has also said imposing tariffs on EU exports would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains”.
Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on the X social media platform that Mr Trump’s announcement was “very concerning and not the way forward”.
He added: “The European Commission can count on our full support. As the EU we must remain united and resolute in pursuing an outcome with the United States that is mutually beneficial.”
Mexico’s economy ministry said a bilateral working group aims to reach an alternative to the 30% US tariffs before they are due to take effect.
The country was informed by the US that it would receive a letter about the tariffs, the ministry’s statement said, adding that Mexico was negotiating.
The US imposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from the EU in April but it was later paused and the bloc has since been paying a baseline tariff of 10% on goods it exports to the US.
In May, while the US and EU where holding trade negotiations, Mr Trump threated to impose a 50% tariff on the bloc as talks didn’t progress as he would have liked.
However, he later announced he was delaying the imposition of that tariff while negotiations over a trade deal took place.
As of earlier this week, the EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders were still hoping to strike a trade deal with the Trump administration.
Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.