Trump 2.0, conflict in Ukraine to end and China challenging global world order – what can we expect in 2025?
What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.
From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.
But it’s not all bad news…
Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States
by Mark Stone, US correspondent
Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.
Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.
A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.
The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.
With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.
Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.
Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP
Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.
Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.
There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.
Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.
On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.
On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.
On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.
There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.
Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.
Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover
by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.
The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.
He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.
France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.
Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.
Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.
Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.
Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.
The Middle East: anything but predictable
by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.
2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.
But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.
Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.
Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.
There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.
The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.
Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.
That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.
Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.
And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.
But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.
Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order
by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing
The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.
Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.
Since the election, he has said he’s planning an extra 10% on top of existing tariffs on Chinese products.
Beijing is bracing for trouble and is already engaged in retaliatory trade action with the US. Watch this issue heat up next year.
The US is expected to increase tariffs on Chinese chips next year as competition heats up. Pic: FeatureChina via AP
Diplomatically, while there are efforts to turn the fraught UK-China relationship around, it’s likely spying allegations and accusations of Chinese political interference – which Beijing vehemently denies – will continue to test both countries.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.
In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.
In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.
Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.
They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.
Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.
Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News he’d be willing to cede territory, while Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to compromise.
It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.
Pic: Reuters
I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.
But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.
In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech
by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
The year is ending with building protest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.
The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.
Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.
Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.
Not all news is negative, though.
Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.
We see the boat from a distance – the orange of the life jackets reflected in the rising sun.
And as we draw closer, we can make out dozens of people crowded on board as it sets off from the shore, from a beach near Dunkirk.
.
There is no sign of any police activity on the shore, and there are no police vessels in the water.
Instead, the migrants crammed into an inflatable dinghy are being watched by us, on board a private boat, and the looming figure of the Minck, a French search and rescue ship that soon arrives.
Minck, a French search and rescue ship, shadows the boat
The dinghy meanders. It’s not heading towards Britain but rather hugging the coast.
A few of the passengers wave at us cheerfully, but then the boat starts to head back towards the shore.
As it nears a different beach, we see a police vehicle – a dune buggy – heading down to meet it.
Normal practice is for French police officers to slice through the material of any of these small boats that end up back on shore.
Sky’s Adam Parsons at the scene
Two police officers get out of the buggy and wait. A police helicopter arrives and circles above, performing a tight circle over the heads of the migrants.
The police think they might be about to go back on to the beach; in fact, these passengers know that most of them are staying put.
The boat stops a short distance from the shore and four people jump out. As they wade towards the beach, the boat turns and starts to head back out to sea.
We see the two police officers approach these four men and have a brief conversation.
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They don’t appear to check the bags they are carrying and, if they do question them about why they left the boat, it is the most cursory of conversations.
In reality, these people probably don’t speak French but they were almost certainly involved in arranging this crossing, which is against the law. But all four walk away, disappearing into the dunes at the back of the beach.
Read more:
Why do so many try to cross the Channel?
Channel crossings rise by 50% in first half of 2025
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Why do migrants want to come to the UK?
We follow the boat as it chugs off in the direction of Britain, carrying around 50 people.
The Minck returns to shadowing its progress, but its job is limited to offering help if the boat gets into trouble.
Otherwise, if the engine keeps working, then this flimsy vessel will reach British waters in a few hours’ time.
World
IDF chief says conditions ‘created’ for Gaza ceasefire – as Trump says it could be ‘this week or next’
Donald Trump and a leading figure in the Israeli army have suggested a ceasefire in Gaza could be close.
Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), told Israeli media that “conditions were created to advance a deal” to bring about an end to the conflict in the coastal territory, and the release of hostages.
In a televised address, he said: “We have achieved many significant results, we have caused great damage to the governance and military capabilities of Hamas.
“Thanks to the operational power that we have demonstrated, the conditions have been created to advance a deal to release the hostages.”
‘This week, or next’
It comes as the US president hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington DC on a prolonged visit this week.
Mr Trump said his meetings with Mr Netanyahu were focused “on Gaza for the most part”.
He said: “I think we have a chance [of a ceasefire] this week, or next week.”
However, the US leader added: “Not definitely,” saying nothing was certain about the situation in Gaza.
Donald Trump speaks, as Pete Hegseth looks on, during a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Pic: Reuters
Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a bilateral dinner with Donald Trump this week.
Pic: Reuters
Hamas reiterates ‘keenness’ to end fighting
Meanwhile, Hamas has repeated its message that it is committed to the negotiations but warned of a number of sticking points despite the positive noises from senior Israeli figures.
In a statement, the militant group said: “In its keenness to succeed in the ongoing efforts, the movement [Hamas] has shown the necessary flexibility and agreed to release 10 prisoners.
“The key points remain under negotiation, foremost among them: the flow of aid, the withdrawal of the occupation from the territories of the Gaza Strip, and the provision of real guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.”
Read more:
What is the possible Gaza ceasefire deal?
The man acting as backchannel for Hamas
‘One issue’ still to be resolved in ceasefire, Sky News understands
Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff previously told a cabinet meeting that the anticipated ceasefire would last 60 days and involve the release of ten hostages and nine bodies.
A source close to the negotiations told Sky News that the hostage release would take place in two waves during the 60 days and was conditional on the ceasefire.
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Israeli strikes continue
It comes as Israeli attacks on Gaza continue.
According to hospital officials, at least 40 Palestinians were killed in the latest attacks on Gaza – including 10 people from the same family.
Nasser Hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis said the dead included 17 women and 10 children.
While the politicians talk, so many people come from around the world to try to get across the Channel on small boats. But why?
Why make such a perilous crossing to try to get to a country that seems to be getting increasingly hostile to asylum seekers?
As the British and French leaders meet, with small boats at the forefront of their agenda, we came to northern France to get some answers.
It is not a new question, but it is peppered with fresh relevance.
Over the course of a morning spent around a migrant camp in Dunkirk, we meet migrants from Gaza, Iraq, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka and beyond.
Some are fearful, waving us away; some are happy to talk. Very few are comfortable to be filmed.
All but one man – who says he’s come to the wrong place and actually wants to claim asylum in Paris – are intent on reaching Britain.
They see the calm seas, feel the light winds – perfect conditions for small boat crossings.
John has come here from South Sudan. He tells me he’s now 18 years old. He left his war-torn home nation just before his 16th birthday. He feels that reaching Britain is his destiny.
“England is my dream country,” he says. “It has been my dream since I was at school. It’s the country that colonised us and when I get there, I will feel like I am home.
“In England, they can give me an opportunity to succeed or to do whatever I need to do in my life. I feel like I am an English child, who was born in Africa.”
‘England is my dream country,’ John tells Adam Parsons
He says he would like to make a career in England, either as a journalist or in human resources, and, like many others we meet, is at pains to insist he will work hard.
The boat crossing is waved away as little more than an inconvenience – a trifle compared with the previous hardships of his journey towards Britain.
We meet a group of men who have all travelled from Gaza, intent on starting new lives in Britain and then bringing their families over to join them.
One man, who left Gaza two years ago, tells me that his son has since been shot in the leg “but there is no hospital for him to go to”.
Next to him, a man called Abdullah says he entered Europe through Greece and stayed there for months on end, but was told the Greek authorities would never allow him to bring over his family.
Britain, he thinks, will be more accommodating. “Gaza is being destroyed – we need help,” he says.
Abdullah says ‘Gaza is being destroyed – we need help’
A man from Eritrea tells us he is escaping a failing country and has friends in Britain – he plans to become a bicycle courier in either London or Manchester.
He can’t stay in France, he says, because he doesn’t speak French. The English language is presented as a huge draw for many of the people we talk to, just as it had been during similar conversations over the course of many years.
I ask many of these people why they don’t want to stay in France, or another safe European country.
Some repeat that they cannot speak the language and feel ostracised. Another says that he tried, and failed, to get a residency permit in both France and Belgium.
But this is also, clearly, a flawed survey. Last year, five times as many people sought asylum in France as in Britain.
And French critics have long insisted that Britain, a country without a European-style ID card system, makes itself attractive to migrants who can “disappear”.
Read more:
Channel crossings rise 50% in first six months of 2025
French police forced to watch on as migrants attempt crossing
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Migrant Channel crossings hit new record
A young man from Iraq, with absolutely perfect English, comes for a chat. He oozes confidence and a certain amount of mischief.
It has taken him only seven days to get from Iraq to Dunkirk; when I ask how he has made the trip so quickly, he shrugs. “Money talks”.
He looks around him. “Let me tell you – all of these people you see around you will be getting to Britain and the first job they get will be in the black market, so they won’t be paying any tax.
“Back in the day in Britain, they used to welcome immigrants very well, but these days I don’t think they want to, because there’s too many of them coming by boat. Every day it’s about seven or 800 people. That’s too many people.”
“But,” I ask, “if those people are a problem – then what makes you different? Aren’t you a problem too?”
He shakes his head emphatically. “I know that I’m a very good guy. And I won’t be a problem. I’ll only stay in Britain for a few years and then I’ll leave again.”
A man from Sri Lanka says he “will feel safe” when he gets to Britain; a tall, smiling man from Ethiopia echoes the sentiment: “We are not safe in our home country so we have come all this way,” he says. “We want to work, to be part of Britain.”
Emmanuel is another from South Sudan – thoughtful and eloquent. He left his country five years ago – “at the start of COVID” – and has not seen his children in all that time. His aim is to start a new life in Britain, and then to bring his family to join him.
He is a trained electrical engineer, but says he could also work as a lorry driver. He is adamant that Britain has a responsibility to the people of its former colony.
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“The British came to my country – colonising, killing, raping,” he said. “And we didn’t complain. We let it happen.
“I am not the problem. I won’t fight anyone; I want to work. And if I break the laws – if any immigrant breaks the laws – then fine, deport them.
“I know it won’t be easy – some people won’t like me, some people will. But England is my dream.”
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