FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State completed a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold’s Bobcats began the season 2-2 but caught fire offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State team in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late in the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a combined 29 points, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech in the title game. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech didn’t score until the final minute of the game, and MSU cruised 19-6.
Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their best chance yet of earning a second ring. All that’s left is to defeat FCS’ ultimate final boss.
After ceding control of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after winning eight of nine titles between 2011 and 2019, they’re looking for their second title of the 2020s.
Will we see another North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?
How they got here
Record: 15-0
SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense
Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11
Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17
Defeating FCS royalty comes with its own set of challenges, but there should be no doubting who the best team in FCS has been through 15 games. Montana State has been devastating from start to finish. Despite handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats still overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (total yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter points to win their season opener.
They’ve barely wobbled since. Their only tight game to date against an FCS opponent was only sort of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks in part to an onside kick recovery) to make it close. No one has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on MSU since the New Mexico game. South Dakota played an awesome game against the Bobcats in the semifinals and still couldn’t get closer than 14 points down the stretch.
Record: 13-2
SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense
Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28
Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21
NDSU took on a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. The Bison led Colorado at halftime but couldn’t quite overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling 4 yards short on a game-ending Hail Mary.
They had to survive an early 38-35 thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes, but once the defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like NDSU again. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.
MSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)
In his first collegiate game in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff games, he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 while leading MSU to the national title game.
For most of four years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless rushing, throwing his 208-pound frame around with abandon and doing whatever it takes to get the job done. He got injured early in the 2021 title game against NDSU, and he has been dinged up at some point basically every year since. But if he’s in the game, he’s probably doing something ridiculous. He has five career 150-yard rushing games (including a 273-yard, three-touchdown performance against Weber State in 2022), and he has five career 225-yard passing games (including a 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against UT Martin in the second round of this year’s playoffs).
In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 more scores in less than eight carries per game. Meanwhile, Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He doesn’t have a go-to receiver — he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (also an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight end Rohan Jones have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.
A case could be made that elite line play was the last piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen’s four-year building project — it’s where the Bobcats most noticeably were lacking in their first few meetings against NDSU and SDSU. But despite starting three sophomores up front, the Bobcats boast an abundance of both talent and raw size up front, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line with a pair of first-team all-Big Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 points per game and hasn’t been held under 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota forced four straight punts in the second half of the semifinals, but it didn’t help all that much since MSU had scored on five of its first six drives.
NDSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)
NDSU’s defense took a little while to shift into gear in 2024. Including the loss to Colorado and the near-upset against ETSU, the Bison allowed at least 24 points and at least 367 yards in three of their first four games. But in the 11 games since, they’ve allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game despite playing over half their games in that span against playoff teams.
Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries up front (Huisman also has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. But as has been customary over the last 15 years or so, the Bison’s biggest strength is depth. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, nine have at least two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or broken up) at least three passes, 13 have forced a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has the best offense they’ve faced, but in two games against SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed an average of just 333 yards and 19 points. They aren’t likely to give up too many easy yards, even to Mellott & Co.
A mistake-free Bison attack
NDSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)
The bar is high in Fargo, and compared to the absurd talent that has rolled through town over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense is not the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, but they average just 5.1 yards per carry — good but not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, but his 12.8 yards per completion is less than you’d expect.
The Bison can still ground teams down with mistake-free efficiency, however. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and you just can’t take the ball away from them: They’ve committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. (Granted, there’s some luck involved in that — they’ve lost only one of 10 fumbles. But 10 fumbles in 15 games is minimal too.) The line is still huge, averaging 6-5 and 304 pounds, the backs are still hard to bring down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 pounds, respectively), and if your safeties bite on a run fake, they can still go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed grab sent NDSU to the title game.
THE ONE-HAND GRAB 🤯@NDSUfootball takes the lead with Bryce Lance’s third touchdown of the game. #FCSPlayoffs x 🎥 ABC pic.twitter.com/lBNM58RpCA
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) December 21, 2024
While Miller’s upside probably doesn’t match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce’s older brother), there’s nothing you can throw at him that he hasn’t seen before: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year will play in his 67th career game Monday night.
If you aren’t careful, the Bison will score on you with special teams too. For as good as MSU’s Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with either a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).
MSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)
When MSU got mauled by NDSU in the 2021 title game, the Bobcats’ defense had only two players on the depth chart listed at more than 270 pounds. The Bison did what they do against all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 rushing yards.
MSU still doesn’t exactly have Georgia’s mammoth defensive front, but the 2024 Bobcats are bigger than they were in 2021. Starting tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 pounds, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at end. New Mexico averaged 262.8 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents but managed only 152 against MSU, and only Eastern Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.
To move the ball on them, teams typically have to do it through the air. UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, Idaho’s Jack Layne and South Dakota’s Aidan Bouman combined to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Bobcats, and while a lot of that yardage came when these opponents were down double digits, it’s still solid work. Of course, it also came with a cost: MSU sacked those three quarterbacks 10 times. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (combined: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O’Reilly and Neil Daily (combined: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks among 85 TFLs this season. You might be able to hit them for a big play here and there, but only if you get them before they get you.
Projecting the title game
MSU’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek both earned their figurative coaching degrees at the University of Craig Bohl — Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (mostly as offensive coordinator), while Polasek joined Bohl’s NDSU staff in 2006, stayed in Fargo until 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa’s offensive line coach. The paths of these two coaches have crossed constantly. So, too, have the paths of these teams, and every time they’ve met in the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.
Vigen is 47-9 in four seasons at Montana State: 1-2 against FBS teams, 2-2 against rival Montana, 1-4 against NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 against everyone else. He and his Bobcats have been building toward this exact run for a while, and it feels like this is their time to break through. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats’ plans — it’s what dynasties do, after all.
Three years ago, MSU wasn’t quite ready. Mellott got hurt, the Bobcats had no chance of stopping the NDSU run game, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It might be a different story this time around.
ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7
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Greg Wyshynski, Senior NHL writer
Some NHL awards races are actual races. There are leaders, but ones that are looking over their shoulders at a pack of candidates closing in fast.
Other NHL awards races currently look at lot like when Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt would race: Everyone is just going to have to be content with second place because their leads are that insurmountable.
Again, the operative word is “currently.” This is the NHL Awards Watch for January. We have a lot of season to go.
We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy
Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers; Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
A couple of things happened since the last NHL Awards Watch.
After leading the MVP race last month, Kaprizov’s lower-body injury put him out of the Wild lineup. Through Sunday, he had missed six of Minnesota’s 40 games this season. His stats remain stellar — 23 goals and 27 assists for 50 points — but other Hart contenders haven’t spent that kind of time off the ice.
The other significant happening was the entirety of Nathan MacKinnon’s December. The Avalanche star had seven goals and 18 assists for 25 points in 13 games, helping Colorado go 10-3-0 while being named the NHL’s first star for the month. Through 40 games, MacKinnon led the NHL with 65 points and 51 assists and led the Avalanche in scoring by eight points over Mikko Rantanen.
MacKinnon won the Hart last season. The NHL hasn’t had back-to-back MVPs since Alex Ovechkin won the award in 2007-08 and 2008-09. The way MacKinnon’s going, it could happen again.
And yet, Kirill Kaprizov still got the majority of the first-place votes from those canvassed this month.
“In the true spirit of the award, there is just no way Minnesota is anywhere close to the unexpectedly good team they are this year without Kaprizov,” a voter said.
But the MVP race behind the Wild star has changed dramatically. Last month, Kaprizov finished atop the Hart straw poll with 88% of the vote. This month, he earned only 37% of the first-place votes. MacKinnon is right behind him. So are the other players who received first-place votes this month: Draisaitl, Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel, Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov and Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner. All of them have compelling MVP cases.
“It’s getting crowded at the top, but Kaprizov is still producing more at even strength than any other player,” a Kaprizov voter declared. “MacKinnon has Rantanen, Draisaitl has McDavid, Kucherov is too power-play dependent.”
“I’m picking Kirill Kaprizov,” another noted. “But if Colorado gets their stuff sorted for good and takes off, MacKinnon might run away with it. Central Division is where it’s at.”
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Kirill Kaprizov scores goal for Wild
Kirill Kaprizov nets goal for Wild
MacKinnon won the Hart last year with 51 goals and 140 points. He’s nowhere near that goal pace, but his points-per-game pace (1.63) isn’t far off from his pace in his MVP season (1.71). He was the clear second choice with 26% of the first-place votes. MacKinnon was in the top three in the November Awards Watch, didn’t receive a first-place vote in December and has come roaring back this month.
“MacKinnon’s surge and Kaprizov’s injury changed the face of that Hart race,” a voter concluded.
“He not only leads the NHL in scoring but kept the Avalanche afloat long enough for them to swap out both goalies and look more like a serious contender,” another explained.
Draisaitl was third in the voting (16%), right ahead of Eichel (11%). The Oilers star led the NHL in goals through Sunday with 29 tallies, well ahead of the five players tied with 23 goals. His 59 points were second to MacKinnon for the NHL lead. According to Evolving Hockey, Draisaitl leads the NHL with 22.6 expected goals above replacement.
Draisaitl helped keep the Oilers on point as teammate Connor McDavid dealt with an injury. But McDavid has played only three fewer games than Draisaitl — and trailed him by only five points for the team lead. The season Draisaitl won his only Hart Trophy (the COVID-shortened 2019-20), he played seven more games than McDavid and tallied 13 more points.
Eichel’s having the best regular season of his career. Through Sunday, the 28-year-old center led the Golden Knights with 52 points in 39 games — nearly 20 points clear of the second-highest scorer, Mark Stone (33 points).
That Eichel had played 14 more games than Stone is exactly the point: As Vegas has had more guys out of action than a casino where the house always wins, Eichel has been the constant, playing every game and playing extremely well. His career high for points is 82 in 2018-19 with Buffalo. He’s on pace for over 109 points this season.
“He’s the best player on the best team, but most impressive is how Eichel has emerged as a defensive force,” one Jack backer explained.
They’re right about his defense, which has been improving each season since his 200-foot game earned accolades during the 2023 Stanley Cup run. Internally, Vegas has talked about Eichel getting a Selke push this season. The Knights give up just 2.16 goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Eichel on the ice. It should be noted, however, that Kaprizov has him bested in goals-against per 60 (1.88) and expected goals against per 60 (2.05) this season.
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Jack Eichel scores goal vs. Sabres
Jack Eichel scores goal vs. Sabres
Kucherov, who won the Hart in 2018-19, has led the Lightning in scoring all season. Through 35 games he had 55 points, 10 points better than the team’s second-leading scorer Brayden Point.
Marner received a first-place vote for holding down the fort while Auston Matthews was out with an injury. Marner has 56 points in 41 games, 13 more than the Leafs’ second-leading scorer William Nylander, while continuing to be an exceptional defensive forward, too. It’s a heck of a case he’s making in a contract year.
Marner has never finished in the top 10 for the Hart. Quinn Hughes was seventh for the award last season, when he won his first Norris Trophy. So he’s on the radar in the MVP race and pulled in one first-place vote.
In a tumultuous season for the Canucks — from infighting to injuries — Hughes has easily been their best player: 42 points in 34 games, including 34 assists. He’s not leading all defensemen in points nor ice time, but he’s leading the Canucks in both. Hughes leads Conor Garland (29 points) by 13 points for the team lead.
So it’s a very crowded field and could become even more crowded if Connor Hellebuyck starts getting the credit for the Winnipeg Jets‘ outstanding season. The NHL hasn’t had a goalie win MVP since Montreal’s Carey Price in 2014-15.
“I was this close to putting Hellebuyck down for MVP,” said a voter who ultimately broke for Kaprizov instead.
While he didn’t earn a first-place vote, it would be foolish to discount McDavid from the race. He’s won NHL MVP three times and been a finalist for the award six times in 10 seasons. With 54 points in 36 games — his 1.50 points per game average is fourth in the NHL — he’s just a stride behind the rest of these players.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks; Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
No major changes in the Norris race order, which we’re sure will go over well in Vancouver.
Makar’s lead has narrowed from earning 75% of the first-place votes to 58% from our panelists this month. His 49 points in 40 games led all defensemen through Sunday’s games. That’s impressive, but not nearly the total Makar’s incredible start (24 points in 15 games) seemed to portend. He’s a plus-13, skating more on average (25:31) than Hughes (25:08) but less than Werenski (26:28).
After getting dinged for his defense in last season’s Norris voting, Makar’s underlying numbers are strong: The Avalanche are giving up 2.04 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when he’s on the ice and have an expected goals-against of 2.14. Makar won the Norris in 2021-22 and finished third in the next two seasons.
One Makar voter anticipated some backlash for their choice. “Blah, blah, blah, you only pick points. But the dude is unreal and controls the game from the blue line. A total freak show,” they quipped.
“He leads all blueliners in goals and assists,” another Makar voter noted. “Quinn Hughes’ injury may prove the difference in what was shaping to be a tight race.”
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Cale Makar tallies goal vs. Sabres
Cale Makar tallies goal vs. Sabres
Hughes, last season’s Norris winner, missed four games after Christmas with an undisclosed injury. His return is imminent, which is good news for a Vancouver team whose offense struggled to score just seven goals in his absence. Hughes (42 points in 34 games) had a razor-thin points-per-game lead (1.24) on Makar (1.23) entering Monday’s games.
Another factor for Hughes: He’s second in the NHL in expected goals above replacement (18.5) and has added three wins to the Canucks, per Evolving Hockey. Makar (13.7 xGAR, 2.3 WAR) was a distant fifth in both categories.
Hughes garnered 26% of the votes.
“The Canucks’ performance without the injured Hughes over the past few games underscores his importance to the team and gives him a slight edge over Cale Makar this time around,” a Hughes voter noted.
“It’s hard to argue with a plus-18 goal differential at 5-on-5,” another added.
Hughes play a ton at 5-on-5 (21:12) — more than Makar, in fact (19:34). He doesn’t play much at all on the penalty kill (11 seconds per game), while Makar does (2:12).
Werenski also plays in all three situations for the Blue Jackets. In fact, he plays more than any other skater in the NHL, at 26:28 per game on average. Werenski has 12 goals and 33 assists in 40 games. He entered Monday second to Makar in goals and points on the season.
“More people should be talking about Zach Werenski,” a Makar voter declared.
“The thing that stuck out to me the most [since December’s Awards Watch] was how much better the Blue Jackets are with Zach Werenski on the ice,” a Werenski voter said. “His impact is noticeable on both ends of the ice — the way he drives play, his defensive ability — and that is how he manages to be a plus-player on that bad of a team. He should be rewarded for that.”
“The Columbus Blue Jackets sit nowhere near sniffing-distance of a playoff spot if Werenski isn’t averaging 1.13 points per game while logging almost 27 minutes every night,” another Werenski voter pointed out.
These three defensemen dominated our voters’ ballots. The only other two names mentioned were Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey, who was seventh for the Norris last season after finishing fifth one year earlier; and Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson, who continues to thrive under head coach Spencer Carbery. He was second for the Norris in 2019-20.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
Finalists: Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens; Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers
Last month, we likened Macklin Celebrini to a marauding T-Rex chasing a Jurassic Park jeep, as Matvei Michkov frantically glanced in his side mirror to discover that objects may be closer than they appear.
In other words, it was only a matter of time before the San Jose Sharks rookie had the body of work voters needed to put him over the Philadelphia Flyers rookie in the Calder race, and here we are.
“Sometimes, the obvious answer is the correct answer,” a Celebrini voter concluded.
After finishing second to Michkov in the December NHL Awards Watch, Celebrini pulled nearly 90% of the first-place votes from our panelists to take control of the rookie of the year race.
“A must-watch player already,” a Macklin backer said. “He’s absolutely electric despite having little help around him.”
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Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks
Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks
Entering Monday’s action, Celebrini (28 points) trailed Michkov (29 points) by one point despite playing eight fewer games thanks to an early-season injury. Celebrini’s 0.93 points-per-game average was tops among all rookies. He also led all rookies with 13 goals, one more than Michkov.
“Matvei Michkov had the head start, but the wonder kid in San Jose has made up for lost ground,” a voter said.
Celebrini is seeing significantly more ice time (19:48) than the Flyers rookie (16:31) on average. In fact, Celebrini is second only to Hutson, a defenseman, in average ice time for rookie skaters.
“Not many rookie forwards skate almost 20 minutes per game,” a voter declared.
“I lean Macklin over Michkov because of the two-way skill and effort he regularly shows on a lesser team,” another added.
Michkov still has a strong case and could end up sweeping the goals and points titles among rookies, both of which have been harbingers for forwards winning the Calder. He’s feasted on the power play for the Flyers, with five goals and 12 points, which led all rookies. While Celebrini has managed to keep up with Michkov as far as highlight-reel moments, Michkov has thrived under — or despite? — the “tough love” of John Tortorella’s coaching.
“Michkov has restructured a broken power play with ease. He’s reminded us the extent of impact one majestic player like him can truly have on a team’s complexion,” a voter explained. “I anticipate changing this to Celebrini by the end of the year, but I’m also anticipating an extremely close call.”
Michkov is the only other player to earn first place votes for the Calder. Based on the number of mentions he received on voters’ ballots, we’re comfortable putting Hutson in that third spot just ahead of Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf.
Hutson has 27 points in 39 games while skating 22:34 per game for the Canadiens. To put into perspective how much Hutson has lapped the field among rookie defensemen: The next highest scoring rookie defenseman, Nolan Allen of Chicago, is 21 points behind.
The Canadiens defenseman is a minus-8, fourth worst on the Habs for players with at least 15 games played. That’s with Montreal having sheltered him with 63% of this zone starts coming in the offensive zone.
Wolf, who was third overall last month, is 12-6-2 in 20 games, with a .913 save percentage and a 2.63 goals-against average, to go along with two shutouts. Those are easily the best numbers for any rookie goalie with at least 10 appearances. With the Flames in the thick of the wild-card race, he should not be counted out for Calder consideration.
But right now, it’s just “consideration.” It remains Celebrini vs. Michkov, with Celebrini clearly ahead in the race.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils; Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
This is Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina to lose, but our voters didn’t make it unanimous.
Hellebuyck is 24-6-2 for the dominant Jets, with a .926 save percentage, a 2.09 save percentage and five shutouts — leading the NHL on all of those categories for goaltenders with at least 20 appearances.
He won his second Vezina Trophy last season and looks very much poised to win a third. Since 1981 — when the NHL changed the criteria of the Vezina Trophy to no longer just honor the goalie who played the most games on the team that gave up the fewest goals — only three goalies won the Vezina more than twice: Dominik Hasek, Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy. All legends and all Hockey Hall of Famers.
“It is ‘Helle-back?’ Perhaps ‘Helle-back-to-back?'” a voter quipped.
“Five shutouts and the season isn’t half over. He’ll be on Hart ballots, too,” another voter predicted.
There was another goalie that snagged a first-place vote and it was a surprise: Thompson, the Capitals netminder who came over from Vegas in the offseason.
The Capitals have been one of season’s best teams and Thompson has been a big reason why. In 20 games, he’s an incredible 16-2-2, with a .916 save percentage and a 2.39 goals-against average. Compare those numbers to what Washington’s other netminder Charlie Lindgren has posted (10-8-1, .900 and 2.70) and the contrast is stark.
“Thompson has been so incredibly efficient. Sixteen of his 20 appearances qualify as quality starts (80%),” the Thompson voter noted. “When the goals dried up for the Capitals following their hot start — and Alex Ovechkin was injured — Thompson kept them on track.”
The other Vezina spot could go to Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild, who was in the top three in last month’s NHL Awards Watch. He certainly has the numbers: 18-6-3 in 27 games, with a .926 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average. He also leads the NHL with 13.5 goals saved above expected per Stathletes.
But the goalie with the highest down-ballot mentions was Markstrom. He’s 19-8-2 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.18 goals-against average. He hasn’t been perfect, and has just 3.1 goals saved above expected this season, but a handful of voters believe he belongs in the Vezina conversation, such as it is.
“This is not a conversation by any stretch of the imagination,” a Hellebuyck voter opined.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils; Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
Barkov earned 42% of the first-place votes, which slightly down from his total last month (50%) but puts him in position to win back-to-back Selke trophies and his third Selke in five seasons.
The Panthers have a 2.06 goals-against and a 1.87 expected goals-against per 60 minutes with Barkov on the ice. The Panthers get 60% of the high-dander chances. He’s also winning an exceptional 61% of his faceoffs this season while putting in work on the penalty kill as well.
“Aleksander Barkov is still the guy,” a voter concluded.
While Barkov remains on top of the Selke leaderboard, the finalists from the December Awards Watch have changed. Out are Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Sam Reinhart of the Florida Panthers; in come Hischier and Marner.
Hischier was second in the Selke voting in 2022-23. He wins 55.8% of his faceoffs and leads the fifth best penalty kill in the NHL, as the forward with the most short-handed ice time on average for New Jersey. His underlying numbers aren’t stellar from a defensive standpoint, although he wins a good amount of puck battles. But he’s a player that certainly passes the eye test as a defensive force for New Jersey.
The same goes for Marner, a winger whose speed and tenacity make him a terrific defensive player. He leads the NHL in turnovers created (8.67) and steals per 60 (2.18) for players with at least 700 minutes of ice time, per Stathletes. He’s the ice time leader for the eighth best penalty kill in the NHL.
It’s here we note that a non-center hasn’t won the Selke Trophy since 2002-03, when Dallas Stars winger Jere Lehtinen captured the award for the third time.
Reinhart was one of five other players to receive a first-place vote, is listed as a center although he plays on Barkov’s wing. He has slightly better defensive metrics than his center, and also plays on the penalty kill.
Cirelli also received a first-place vote. He wins 51.7% of his faceoffs and he’s an outstanding penalty killer, with two goals and two assists shorthanded. His underlying numbers (3.51 expected goals against per 60 minutes) don’t mount a strong argument at the moment. Keep in mind that Cirelli was selected for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off as a defensive specialist, and that certainly raises his profile.
Anze Kopitar won the Selke in 2015-16 and 2017-18. He’s having an outstanding season for what might be the best defensive team in the NHL. The Kings have a 1.66 goals-against per 60 minutes when Kopitar is on the ice.
Jordan Staal has been searching for his first Selke win for 15 years, and finished second for the award last season. He’s once again the linchpin at forward defensively for the Hurricanes, who have a 1.69 goals-against average per 60 minutes when the center is on the ice.
The other player to receive a first-place Selke vote was Jack Eichel. As mentioned earlier, the Golden Knights believe his name should be in the hat for this award. Vegas gives up 2.16 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Eichel on the ice, and he’s an effective penalty killer, too.
Barkov leads, but this is certainly still a competitive race.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.
Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top 20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players. Brayden Point is 16th overall in scoring with 45 points, and had only two penalty minutes through 33 games. But keep an eye out for Anze Kopitar, who won the award in 2015-16 and 2022-23. He’s 34th in scoring (39 points in 38 games) and also has just two penalty minutes. What a race!
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Dean Evason, Columbus Blue Jackets; John Hynes, Minnesota Wild
Alex Ovechkin has 19 goals in 23 games this season. When he fractured his leg in November, there wasn’t just concern about the state of his NHL all-time goals record chase. There was concern that it might derail what had been a stellar start for the Capitals, who went 13-4-1 with Ovechkin in the lineup through Nov. 18.
In between his injury and Ovechkin’s triumphant return to the lineup on Dec. 28? The Capitals went 13-6-2, thanks in no small part to the steady leadership and strong fundamental systems of Spencer Carbery.
The second-year coach had Washington with the Eastern Conference’s top points percentage heading into Monday’s games. They were the top scoring team in the league (3.72 goals per game) and sixth in goals against (2.64).
Perhaps that’s why Carbery was the only unanimous choice in any category in this month’s NHL Awards Watch.
“He’s going to run away with this, and for justifiable reasons,” a voter declared.
While Evason and Hynes didn’t get any first-place votes, they both received a lot of love down the ballot from our voters.
Hynes coached the Wild through some injury adversity to get near the top of the Central Division, with strong underlying defensive numbers.
“Hynes deserves a little love here,” a voter argued.
Evason, in his first season with the Blue Jackets, has Columbus right at the Eastern Conference wild-card bubble after 40 games. He also has something that other candidates don’t have: an emotional backstory, as Evason helped lead this Blue Jackets team through its grief following the tragic death of star forward Johnny Gaudreau before the season.
“The job Dean Evason is doing in Columbus, given everything that franchise has endured, is remarkable. To have them remotely close to a playoff spot is a huge feather in his cap,” a voter explained. “If Columbus gets in, he may beat Carbery and Hynes, but those two have their teams playing consistently solid hockey.”
Other coaches mentioned by our voters include Los Angeles Kings first-year coach Jim Hiller, Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper and Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar. The Winnipeg Jets‘ Scott Arniel, who was in the top three last month, did not receive a mention.
“Steven Stamkos is gone, Mikhail Sergachev was traded and they’re one of the highest scoring teams in the league, one of the top in goal-differential, and radically turned their 5-on-5 play around,” a Cooper backer noted.
“Considering injury list and goaltending woes, though, Jared Bednar should get more love in this category,” another voter said.
Other coaches will get love. But it’s hard to imagine any one of them breaking through the infatuation with Carbery this season.
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Jeff Passan, Senior MLB Insider
Designated hitter Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics are in agreement on a five-year, $60 million contract extension, sources told ESPN late Monday night, continuing a winter of uncharacteristic spending with a long-term deal for the late-blooming slugger.
Before he joined the A’s in 2023, Rooker had bounced among three teams without finding consistent playing time. The A’s saw Rooker blossom into an All-Star in his first season with them, a 10th-place MVP finisher last year and the receiver of the second-largest extension in franchise history.
The A’s, who will play in Sacramento for the next three seasons before a planned move to Las Vegas after leaving Oakland, already had spent $67 million this winter to sign right-hander Luis Severino and added left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a trade with Tampa Bay. The deals, as well as Rooker’s, continue to push the A’s payroll toward the $100 million range. If they do not spend at least 1½ times the revenue-sharing money they receive, the A’s run the risk of a union grievance.
The deal signals the latest in an attempt to rebuild after years of minuscule payrolls and lackluster results. Though the A’s were a success story of a team that managed to succeed in spite of meager support from ownership, recent seasons with slashed payrolls have yielded awful results and coincided with vitriol toward owner John Fisher as A’s bid the city of Oakland farewell.
Rooker becomes the lone A’s player under contract through their planned Las Vegas debut in 2028. The deal, which was first reported by The Athletic, will pay him $30 million over the first three seasons and includes a sixth-year vesting option for $22 million that can escalate by $10 million. The previous largest extension had gone to star third baseman Eric Chavez, who also held the record for largest contract at $66 million until Severino exceeded it.
The deal buys out a potential three years of free agency for Rooker, who three years ago wasn’t sure how much longer his big league career would remain afloat. After debuting with Minnesota in 2020, Rooker struggled and eventually was traded to San Diego in April 2022. Four months later, the Padres dealt him to Kansas City. Three months later, the Royals designated him for assignment, and the A’s claimed Rooker off waivers.
In his first season with the A’s, Rooker nearly doubled his previous career plate appearances and hit 30 home runs. He was even better last season, hitting .297/.365/.562 with 39 home runs and 112 RBIs.
The A’s surprised teams at the July trade deadline when they declined to discuss Rooker in trade discussions. Rooker was similarly off-limits this winter, as Oakland understood an extension for him would further push their payroll toward the number needed to avoid collective-bargaining issues. Rooker was set to make around $5 million in arbitration, but the contract will count for $12 million because that’s its average annual value.
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