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More than half of private sector firms are planning price hikes to help offset looming tax increases announced in the chancellor’s first budget , according to a corporate lobby group.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) warned business confidence was at its lowest level since the market meltdown that followed the Conservatives’ mini budget of autumn 2022.

Its survey of almost 5,000 firms found worries about tax stood at levels not seen since 2017.

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Labour had fought a growth-focused election on the back of an improved working relationship with business but there was a widespread sense of shock when the 30 October budget put businesses on the hook for the bulk of £40bn of tax increases.

The new government argued the hikes were necessary to lock in long overdue investment in public services due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.

But companies widely warned the higher costs, from measures such as higher employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage increases from April, would be passed on to customers and hit wage growth, employment and investment.

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At a time when the Bank of England is struggling to cut interest rates due to stubborn cost pressures in the economy, there will be concern among policymakers over the threat posed by potential business price hikes ahead.

The BCC survey found 55% of companies were planning to raise their own sales costs.

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HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’

Such a move would threaten further upwards pressure on inflation while weak business confidence will also do little to lift the economy out of the doldrums witnessed during the second half of 2024 when government warnings of a “tough” budget ahead were widely blamed for hitting sentiment.

Financial markets currently see just a 60% chance of a Bank rate cut at the next meeting in a month’s time.

BCC director general Shevaun Haviland said: “The worrying reverberations of the budget are clear to see in our survey data. Businesses’ confidence has slumped in a pressure cooker of rising costs and taxes.

“Firms of all shapes and sizes are telling us the national insurance hike is particularly damaging. Businesses are already cutting back on investment and say they will have to put up prices in the coming months.

“The government is rightly coming up with long-term strategies on industry, infrastructure and trade. But those plans won’t help businesses struggling now.

“Business stands ready to work in partnership to make the proposed Employment Rights legislation work for all, but the current plans will add further costs on firms.”

The BCC said the government could help firms absorb the additional pressures in areas such as business rates reform and through infrastructure investment.

A Treasury spokesperson said in response: “We delivered a once in a parliament budget to wipe the slate clean and deliver the stability businesses so desperately need.

“We have ensured more than half of employers will either see a cut or no change in their National Insurance bills, and by capping the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, creating pension megafunds and establishing a National Wealth Fund, we are bringing back political and financial stability, creating the conditions for economic growth through investment and reform.

“This is just the start of our Plan for Change which will unlock investment, get Britain building via planning reform, and employ a modern Industrial Strategy to deliver the certainty and stability businesses need to invest in the UK’s growing and high potential sectors. This will make all parts of the country better off.”

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John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

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John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

The John Lewis Partnership (JLP) has revealed a 73% rise in annual profits but says staff will receive no bonus for the third year in a row.

The employee-owned business, behind John Lewis department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, said earnings over the 12 months to January came in at £97m – up from the £56m achieved in the previous year.

Group sales rose 3% to £12.8bn, driven by Waitrose, in a year when the department store chain restored its ‘Never Knowingly Undersold’ price promise that was scrapped in 2022.

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New chair Jason Tarry signalled a further £600m investment in its operations on the back of the improved profit performance and a focus on regular pay for staff, known as partners, over a one-off reward.

A 7.4% wage rise was revealed earlier this month as the business moved to bolster retention amid the barren spell for annual bonuses that has only seen one paid out over the last five years.

The last financial year marked only the fourth time since 1953 that JLP had not awarded a bonus.

Mr Tarry, who succeeded Dame Sharon White six months ago amid a post pandemic turnaround plan that included the closure of underperforming stores and thousands of job losses, said “careful consideration” had been given to the bonus.

Jason Tarry, pic: John Lewis
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Jason Tarry. Pic: JLP

He told the group’s 73,000 partners: “These are solid results, which show that our customers are responding well to our investments in quality products, value and service.

“We have made good progress with much more still to do.

“Looking forward, I see significant opportunity for growth from both our Waitrose and John Lewis brands.

“Our focus will be on enhancing what makes these brands truly special for our customers.

“This will involve considerable catch-up investment in our stores and supply chain.”

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Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

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Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

Donald Trump’s trade war has expanded to cover the world, with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US in effect from today, affecting UK products worth hundreds of millions of pounds.

The duties were announced in mid-February as stock market investors cheered President Trump‘s ‘America first’ agenda which saw only Mexico, Canada and China come under initial pressure.

While two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted, 25% duties on some Canadian and most Mexican cross-border trade have been withdrawn until 2 April at the earliest.

The tariffs beginning today are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.

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They threaten to make the cost of things like cars to soft drink cans – and therefore some drinks – more expensive.

Canada is the biggest exporter of both steel and aluminium to America. However, the White House on Tuesday rowed back on a threat to double the country’s tariff to 50%.

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The American tariffs are a threat to UK steel exports worth north of £350m annually – with the bulk of that coming from stainless steel.

The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.

“I will continue to engage closely and productively with the US to press the case for UK business interests,” he said.

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Feb: Prices to rise for planes, trains and automobiles

The EU, however, vowed to retaliate with €26bn of counter tariffs on US goods starting from 1 April,

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said she remained open to “meaningful dialogue” with the US.

During Mr Trump’s first term, the bloc countered tariffs with charges on products such as US-made bourbon and jeans which were later suspended.

These duties would be re-imposed from April, the Commission said, with further products added to match the value of the US tariff hit.

Industry body UK Steel said it was a trading partner with the US, not a threat, and urged a government response.

Any fall in demand among US customers will leave producers scrambling for new markets, though some could be directed to domestic projects within the UK.

That steel could prove attractive as China, the world’s largest producer of steel, has threatened to limit its exports in response to the Trump tariffs.

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Carney: ‘Canada will win’

President Trump is under growing pressure to row back, particularly in his planned battle with nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada.

Markets have turned on the tariff regime, with jitters about the effects of higher import prices souring the US economy first being seen through the currency and bond markets.

The dollar has lost around five cents against both the pound and a resurgent euro alone in the past few weeks.

Stock markets have joined in, with the combined market value of the broad S&P 500’s constituent companies down by more than $4trn on the peak seen just last month.

The big fear is that the protectionism will push the world’s largest economy into recession – a scenario Mr Trump did not deny was possible during a weekend interview.

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US firms, already also grappling the complexities associated with an expanding tariff regime, are also letting it be known that they expect damage to their own businesses.

Delta Airlines lowered its first quarter growth forecast on the back of the turmoil this week while US firms are increasingly facing product boycotts.

Travel bodies have also reported a big drop in the number of Canadians crossing the US border, with road trips down by almost a quarter last month compared to February 2023 according to Statistics Canada.

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Small acts of defiance in Canada raise question of what country can do against Trump’s tariff trade war

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Small acts of defiance in Canada raise question of what country can do against Trump's tariff trade war

In Miche cafe and bar in British Columbia’s capital, Victoria, owner Allan Sinclair is turning around specific alcohol bottles on the top shelf to hide the labels from public view.

He picks up a bottle of Jack Daniels.

“This is from Tennessee and they supported Trump so we can’t have that,” he says.

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Allan Sinclair, owner of Miche cafe and bar in British Columbia's capital, Victoria.
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Allan Sinclair, owner of Miche cafe and bar in British Columbia’s capital, Victoria

Bottles of American liquor were being turned around in the Canadian store.
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Bottles of American liquor were being turned around in the Canadian store

A bottle of Wayne Gretzky’s cream liquor is nearly finished.

“Once it’s gone, I’m going to get rid of it,” says Allan. “He’s shown he doesn’t respect our country anymore.”

Gretzky, once a Canadian ice hockey hero, has alienated many here with his steadfast support of the American president.

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Allan also sells “Canadianos,” which he says, wryly, are stronger than Americanos.

They are quiet but considered acts of defiance in the face of a trade war started by the United States.

“It is a small protest in the form of a coffee,” he says. “What we can do is hope that they don’t follow up with all of this madness.”

Tuesday began with Donald Trump announcing a 50% tariff on aluminium and steel coming from Canada. Just hours later, that was revised back down to 25%.

There is a grinding, on-off, tit-for-tat nature to these economic punishments.

The British Columbia premier David Eby retaliated to the Trump tariffs by prohibiting the sale of American-manufactured alcohol in his province.

The Miche cafe and bar doesn't sell Americanos.
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The Miche cafe and bar doesn’t sell Americanos

‘Buy Canadian Instead’

BC Liquor Store is just steps away from the premier’s office in Victoria.

On the shelves where Kentucky bourbon would usually be there are signs saying: “Buy Canadian Instead.”

Dozens of bottles of California and Oregon wine are wrapped tightly with cellophane.

But the threats from the Trump administration don’t end with tariffs.

The president has stated repeatedly that he’s keen to make Canada the 51st state. Even referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor”.

British Columbia premier David Eby speaking to Sky News.
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British Columbia premier David Eby speaking to Sky News

Premier Eby tells Sky News: “These are deeply unnerving statements for the president to be making, especially in the context of clearly expansionist policies related to Greenland and the Panama Canal.

“What we get continually about the president is to take him seriously, but not literally.

“I would love to have that kind of luxury… the danger, I think, is not taking him literally and seriously.”

‘I’m trying to buy anything but American

On the ferry which connects Vancouver Island with the mainland, tariff fatigue is setting in.

Passenger Nancy, a government worker, says she thinks Donald Trump is intent on causing mayhem. “He’s a menace, he’s just creating chaos where it doesn’t need to be.”

Her colleague Laura says the silver lining is that the tariffs have galvanised Canadians together.

Laura, a government worker, says the tariffs have brought Canadians together.
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Laura, a government worker, says the tariffs have brought Canadians together

“People feel hurt and angry,” she says. “We are trying to buy more Canadian products and travel anywhere other than the United States. I had a trip booked to Las Vegas and we’ve cancelled that. When I go to the grocery store, I look for the Canadian maple leaf that a lot of grocery stores have put on the shelves. I’m trying to buy anything but American.”

Richard thinks Donald Trump’s end game is to weaken the Canadian economy.

“I think Trump had an agenda from the beginning, without a doubt. I think he wanted to cause a collapse of the Canadian economy so it would make it easier for him and his colleagues to buy up whatever they wanted, if not to make us a 51st state – it had nothing to do with Fentanyl, that was just a ruse.”

Trump’s ‘fiction’ Fentanyl claims

He’s referencing the Trump administration’s repeated claims that Fentanyl, a devastating opioid that has ravaged parts of both America and Canada, is flooding over the Canadian border into the US.

It’s the reason, they say, for starting this trade war.

One reason Mr Trump gave for initiating the trade war was the alleged flow of fentanyl over the border.
Image:
One reason Mr Trump gave for initiating the trade war was the alleged flow of fentanyl over the border

Dr M-J Milloy, director of research at British Columbia Centre on Substance Use, says that this simply isn’t true.

“There is no one who knows anything about drug markets in North America who would agree with the statement that Canada is a substantial part of the problem in the United States. It is a fiction.”

Dr M-J Milloy, director of research at British Columbia Centre on Substance Use.
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Dr M-J Milloy, director of research at British Columbia Centre on Substance Use

“No question that Fentanyl has devastated the United States. Fentanyl is devastating Canada. And so I think in that way, it might be a potent way for Mr Trump to whip up enthusiasm and to justify this aggression,” he adds.

Whatever the reason – invented or otherwise – for this trade war, it’s making an enemy of this ally.

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The question is, what power does Canada really have in the face of its much bigger, far wealthier neighbour?

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