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Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central’s office in Singapore June 19, 2017.

Edgar Su | Reuters

Commodity prices are largely expected to fall in 2025 due to a sluggish global economic outlook and a resurgent dollar, but gold and gas prices are poised to rally this year, according to industry experts.

Commodities had a mixed 2024: While investors flocked to gold to hedge against inflation, commodities such as iron ore fell as the world’s largest consumer of metals, China, struggled with tepid growth. The story this year is likely to be the same.

“Commodities in general will be under pressure across the board in 2025,” said research firm BMI’s head of commodities analysis Sabrin Chowdhury, adding that the strength of the U.S. dollar will cap demand for commodities priced in the greenback. 

Market participants will be keeping an eye on further China stimulus in hopes that it may fuel a recovery in commodities demand in the world’s second-largest economy. 

Oil prices to slip

Crude oil prices last year were dragged down by weak Chinese demand and a supply glut, and market watchers expect prices to remain pressured in 2025.

The International Energy Agency in November painted a bearish oil market picture for 2025, forecasting global oil demand to grow under a million barrels per day. This compares to a two million barrel per day increase in 2023.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia sees Brent oil prices falling to $70 per barrel this year on expectations increased oil supply from non‑OPEC+ countries that’ll eclipse the rise in global oil consumption.

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Oil prices year-on-year

BMI said in its December note that the first half of 2025 was likely to see a supply glut as substantial new production from U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil comes online. Also, if OPEC+ plans to roll back voluntary cuts materialize, the oversupply will further pressure prices.

BMI noted that the demand picture in 2025 was not clear yet. “Global oil and gas demand remains uncertain, with stable economic growth and rising fuel demand offset by trade war impacts, inflation and contracting demand in developed markets.”

Global crude benchmark Brent was last trading at $76.34 per barrel, around the same levels as it was a year ago in early January.

Gas set to rise

Global natural gas prices have rallied since mid-December 2024, driven by cold weather and geopolitics, Citi analysts said.

Ukraine’s recent halt of Russian gas flow to several European nations on New Year’s Day has introduced greater uncertainty to the global gas markets. As long as the cutoff remains in place, gas prices are likely to remain elevated.

Colder weather for the rest of winter in the U.S. and Asia could also keep prices elevated, said Citi.

BMI forecasts gas prices to rise by about 40% in 2025 to $3.4 per million British thermal units (MMbtu) compared to an average of $2.4 per MMbtu in 2024, driven by growing demand from the LNG sector and higher net pipeline exports. 

U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices, which was the gauge that BMI referred to, are currently trading at $2.95 per MMbtu.

“LNG will continue to drive new consumption, supported by rising export capacity and strong demand in Europe and Asia,” BMI analysts wrote. 

Gold may add sheen

Gold prices notched a slew of all-time highs last year, and the run of fresh records could extend in 2025.

“Investors are optimistic about gold and silver for 2025 because they are so pessimistic on geopolitics and government debt,” said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, a gold investment services firm, emphasizing on the yellow metal’s role as a hedge against risk. 

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Gold prices year-on-year

JPMorgan analysts also expect gold prices to rise, especially if U.S. policies become “more disruptive” in the form of increased tariffs, elevated trade tensions and higher risks to economic growth.  

Gold notched its best annual performance in over a decade last year. Bullion prices rose about 26% in 2024, data from FactSet showed, driven by central bank as well as retail investor purchases.

BullionVault and JPMorgan expect gold prices to go up to $3,000 per ounce in 2025.

Silver and platinum likely to advance

Gold’s poorer cousin, silver, could also see prices rise, especially as demand for solar power — silver is used in building solar panels — remains resilient and the metal’s supply stays limited.

“Both silver and platinum have strong underlying deficit fundamentals, and we think a catch up trade later in 2025, once base metals find firmer footing, could be quite potent,” JPMorgan analysts noted. 

Solar power panels near Crawford Notch, New Hampshire. Silver is primarily utilized in industrial applications and is frequently incorporated in the production of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry, and electronics

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Silver is primarily utilized in industrial applications and is frequently incorporated in the production of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics. It is also needed in building artificial intelligence products and has military applications as well, said CIO of Swiss Asia Capital’s CIO Juerg Kiener.

That said, silver’s upside will be dependent on global industrial demand which will be impacted by Trump’s tariffs, precious metals trading services group MKS Pamp wrote in an outlook report.

Copper faces demand worries

Prices of copper, which is key to the manufacturing of electric vehicles and power grids, may see a dent after shooting to a record high this year on the back of a global energy transition.

“A potential deceleration in energy transition amid Trump’s policy shifts might dampen, to some extent, the ‘green sentiment’ that bolstered prices in 2024,” BMI wrote in a note.

Close up of electrical engineer inspecting copper windings in electrical engineering factory

Monty Rakusen | Digitalvision | Getty Images

While copper prices rose to a record high in May 2024 largely as a result of a squeezed market, they trended lower for the rest of the year, and will continue to do so, John Gross, president at the eponymous metals management consultancy John Gross and Company, told CNBC.

A cocktail mix of high inflation, elevated interest rates and a stronger dollar will weigh on all metals markets, the metals market veteran said.

Iron ore forecast to drop

Iron ore prices may also slide on the back of an oversupply resulting from Chinese policies and geopolitics. 

“The expected U.S. tariffs on China, changing nature of Chinese stimulus and new low-cost supply [will] push the market into further surplus,” Goldman Sachs said, forecasting prices to decline to $95 per ton in 2025.

This despite China likely to import record amount of iron ore this year, according to Reuters. Iron ore prices fell over 24%, according to data from FactSet.

Cocoa and coffee

Cocoa and coffee prices stand out amongst the soft commodities basket, having scaled record highs in 2024 fueled by adverse weather conditions and supply tightness in key producing regions. But demand may taper in 2025.

“Given that these commodities are trading at levels well above cost of production, we expect production to expand and demand to contract in the coming year,” Rabobank researchers said.

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Tesla’s India plans won’t include manufacturing and here’s why

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Tesla's India plans won't include manufacturing and here's why

Tesla’s India plans won’t include electric vehicle manufacturing, according to the local minister of industries, and the reason is quite simple.

Tesla has been trying to enter the Indian automotive market for years, but it has been unable to circumvent the country’s protectionist efforts, which include high import duties on foreign vehicles.

There have been several false starts in the country. CEO Elon Musk has stated on several occasions that Tesla is actively trying to enter the market.

For the last five years, it seemed that the American automaker was on the verge of entering the Indian market with local hires and even vehicle validation, but it never materialized.

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Over the past few months, a new initiative has been underway, and it has shown promise.

It came after India finally reached a compromise on its import duties on cars last year, opening the door for Tesla and other EV automakers to launch in the country.

The deal involves significantly reducing import duties for a limited number of electric vehicles, provided the automaker makes a substantial investment and commitment to establish an electric vehicle factory in India within the coming years.

Since then, Tesla has started hiring service and sales staff, and there have been several reports that the automaker is closing in on some retail and service locations.

However, we now learn that Tesla doesn’t plan to take advantage of the deal, which includes establishing local vehicle manufacturing.

HD Kumaraswamy, India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries, announced that Tesla won’t be one of the automakers planning to build EV factories in the country (via BBC):

“Mercedes Benz, Skoda-Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia have shown interest [in manufacturing electric cars in India]. Tesla – we are not expecting from them.”

Another Indian government official added that while Tesla participated in the first round of discussions with stakeholders, it stopped participating in the process after, while the previously mentioned automakers continued.

Kumaraswamy still said that he believes Tesla plans to open “two showrooms” in the country, but it’s not clear how it plans to handle the situation with the import duties.

Tesla also faced another recent setback in India when it lost its head of the country last month.

Electrek’s Take

I said it several times in the last few months amid Tesla’s latest effort to enter India, but I’ll repeat it: I’ll believe it when I see it.

We have been burned too many times on this.

Showrooms are one thing, but Tesla also needs to deploy service and charging stations. If its vehicles are still subject to steep import duties without the benefits of the promise of a manufacturing investment, it’s going to be a tough market for Tesla.

The primary reason Tesla is not committing to a manufacturing facility in India is likely due to its factories currently operating at approximately 60% capacity.

It makes no sense to invest in more manufacturing capacity if you are not already utilizing your current fully deployed capacity. That’s also why Tesla halted its Gigafactory Mexico project, along with the US tariffs.

Tesla currently has a demand problem. Not a production capacity demand.

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Leaked recording proves Tesla (TSLA) has employee morale problem

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Leaked recording proves Tesla (TSLA) has employee morale problem

A leaked recording of a new Tesla training program reveals that the company is concerned about a growing employee morale issue.

Last year, we noted that, following a mass wave of layoffs that was poorly handled on many levels, Tesla has been facing significant employee morale issues.

A year later, it looks like these are ongoing and Tesla is trying to address them.

Last week, Tesla had a week-long production shutdown at Gigafactory Texas and employees were offered to come in for some training during that time.

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One of the training sessions was related to “company culture,” and Business Insider obtained a recording, releasing some quotes from it.

The instructor asked Tesla employees attending the training if they’d ever felt “I can’t work under these conditions”or had felt set back by constant change at the company.” “I know I have,” the instructor told the employees.

The recording made it clear that Tesla is having some turnover issues due to morale. The instructor said:

“A lot of people leave this company, and they have kind of a negative taste in their mouth. They think: ‘Man, it was terrible. It was bad. I got burnt out. I feel like I didn’t get anything done, nobody listened to me.’”

The company culture training reportedly used to be for Tesla management, but the instructor said that the company decided to expand it to all employees.

They added:

“Leadership has kind of another level of responsibility for trying to guide and direct that culture. But at the end of the day, it’s us as the people on the ground that are the reflection of the culture.”

The instructor highlighted the need for employees to focus on Tesla’s “higher purpose.”

Tesla greatly benefited from being a mission-driven company with the aim. of accelerating the transition to electric transport and sustainable energy.

It helped with hiring and in pushing Tesla’s well-known aggressive work rate.

However, Tesla’s mission shifted in the last few years as CEO Elon Musk had Tesla focus on autonomous driving, and many people feel that the original mission has taken a step back with the CEO backing Donald Trump and the Republican party, who have historically campaigned against electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Electrek’s Take

Company culture begins at the top and flows down. Musk has historically asked a lot out of Tesla employees, but he has barely been working at Tesla for the past year.

That’s not outstanding leadership.

Furthermore, he alienated most of Tesla’s customer base, and while he still has loyalists at Tesla, I think that his massive drop in favorability is also reflected among Tesla employees.

I think talent retention should be one of the biggest concerns at Tesla right now.

I track employee comings and goings closely and I see a continued exodus of talent right now that doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Employee morale is part of it.

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Trump’s Truth Social takes step toward launching bitcoin ETF with NYSE Arca filing

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Trump's Truth Social takes step toward launching bitcoin ETF with NYSE Arca filing

Anna Barclay | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform moved a step closer to having a bitcoin exchange-traded fund available to everyday investors.

NYSE Arca, the all-electronic arm of the New York Stock Exchange that handles most ETF trading, filed on Tuesday to list a bitcoin fund linked to the president’s media company, the latest sign of Trump’s expanding push into the crypto world. Known as a 19b-4 form, the filing is required before regulators can decide whether to allow the fund to launch and trade on a U.S. exchange.

Called the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, the fund is designed to track the price of bitcoin and offer a simpler way for investors to gain exposure without holding the asset directly. The filing follows an announced partnership between Trump Media and Crypto.com in March to bring a suite of digital asset products to market later this year, pending regulatory approval.

Those planned offerings include baskets of cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and Crypto.com’s native Cronos token, combined with traditional securities. The products will be branded under Trump Media and made available to global investors through major brokerage platforms and the Crypto.com app, which serves more than 140 million users worldwide.

Since the January 2024 launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, the market has swelled to more than $130 billion in total assets. BlackRock‘s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounts for the lion’s share, with nearly $69 billion in assets, making it the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Trump is the majority owner of Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, which has made a series of crypto-aligned moves in recent months — from trademarking digital asset products to unveiling a $2.5 billion bitcoin treasury plan last week in Las Vegas. If approved, the ETF would represent one of the most politically connected entries into the booming market for bitcoin funds.

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