Donald Trump’s threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

Published

2 months ago

January 7, 2025

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The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.

Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’s most powerful European military.

Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.

If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.

Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.

The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.

It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.

But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?

The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.

He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.

The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.

European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.

The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.

Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.

He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.

Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.

Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.

Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.

He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.

Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.

He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy says there is a ‘good chance’ of ending war in Ukraine

Published

16 hours ago

March 14, 2025

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy says there is a 'good chance' of ending war in Ukraine

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said there is a “good chance” to end the war with Russia.

The embattled Ukrainian president was speaking after he accepted a proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire and Vladimir Putin stuck to his red lines on needing certain conditions to be met.

“Right now, we have a good chance to end this war quickly and secure peace. We have solid security understandings with our European partners,” Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.

“We are now close to the first step in ending any war – silence,” he said, referring to a truce.

Ukraine war latest updates

He later urged the US and other allies to place further pressure on Moscow and reiterated his belief Mr Putin will delay the ceasefire for as long as possible.

“If there is a strong response from the United States, they will not let them play around. And if there are steps that Russia is not afraid of, they will delay the process,” he said.

Mr Zelenskyy said a ceasefire along the more than 1,000km (600-mile) frontline could be controlled with US help through satellites and intelligence – earlier this week Washington resumed intelligence sharing and military aid after Ukraine accepted the ceasefire.

Mr Zelenskyy also said officials at a meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia this week discussed the issue of territory, but a difficult dialogue would be required to resolve it.

“The issue of territories is the most difficult after the ceasefire,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

It comes as Donald Trump said he sees “pretty good vibes coming out of Russia”, and he thinks Moscow will make a deal on the war.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has left thousands dead and injured, with millions displaced and towns and cities destroyed.

After three years of war Moscow’s forces now control nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory and have been advancing since the middle of last year.

“The ceasefire unblocks the way for the sides to end the war. And the territories… will be the point that makes it
possible to end the war after this issue is resolved,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

The Kremlin has demanded Kyiv permanently cede the territory it has claimed.

Mr Zelenskyy also said he was discussing future security guarantees and economic support with Kyiv’s allies, saying 100% air defence cover would be required as deterrence in a peace deal.

Meanwhile, Mr Putin met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the details of the proposal and has asked him to convey Moscow’s thoughts to Washington, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

It comes ahead of a video call between Sir Keir Starmer and around 25 world leaders on Saturday, in which he will urge them to make concrete commitments to support Ukraine and increase pressure on Mr Putin to accept a ceasefire.

World

Former president of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte appears in court accused of running death squads

Published

23 hours ago

March 14, 2025

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Former president of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte appears in court accused of running death squads

Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, has appeared at the International Criminal Court, accused of crimes against humanity.

The 79-year-old appeared in the Netherlands via video link on Friday.

His lawyer said he was suffering from “debilitating medical issues” but the judge in The Hague, Iulia Motoc, said the court doctor had found him to be “fully mentally aware and fit”.

She said he was allowed to appear remotely because he had taken a long flight.

Wearing a jacket and tie, Duterte spoke briefly to confirm his name and date of birth.

He was read his rights and formally informed of the charges. His supporters contest his arrest and say the court does not have jurisdiction.

If convicted, he faces life in prison.

His daughter Sara Duterte, the current vice president of the Philippines, said she was hoping to visit her father and have the hearing moved after meeting supporters outside the court.

Back home in the Philippine capital region, large screens were set up to allow families of suspects killed in the crackdowns to watch the proceedings.

Prosecutors accuse Duterte of forming and arming death squads said to have killed thousands of drug dealers and users during a brutal crackdown on illegal drugs.

Police say more than 6,200 people were killed in what they describe as shootouts while he was president from 2016 to 2022.

They claim he was an “indirect co-perpetrator” in multiple murders, allegedly overseeing killings between November 2011 and March 2019.

Before becoming president, Duterte was the mayor of the southern city of Davao.

According to the prosecution, he issued orders to police and other “hitmen” who formed the so-called “Davao Death Squads” or DDS.

Estimates of the death toll during his six-year presidential term vary, from more than 6,000 reported by national police, to 30,000 claimed by human rights groups.

The warrant for his arrest said there were “reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Duterte bears criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder”.

Duterte has said he takes full responsibility for the “war on drugs”.

He was arrested on Tuesday amid chaotic scenes in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, after returning from a visit to Hong Kong.

He told officers “you have to kill me to bring me to The Hague” during a 12-hour standoff, a Philippine police general said.

He also refused to have his fingerprints taken and threatened Police Major General Nicolas Torre with lawsuits before he was bundled onto a government-chartered jet at a Philippine air base and taken to The Hague, Maj Gen Torre told the Associated Press.

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Trump’s fixer was made to wait eight hours to meet Putin – it felt like a classic power play

Published

1 day ago

March 14, 2025

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Trump's fixer was made to wait eight hours to meet Putin - it felt like a classic power play

Steve Witkoff didn’t stay long in the Russian capital.

According to footage posted of his motorcade leaving and returning to Moscow’s Vnukovo airport, he was here for little more than 12 hours.

And for most of that, it seems, he was left waiting.

Trump’s fixer leaves Moscow – peace talks latest

Mr Witkoff, a former property mogul who has become Donald Trump’s chief negotiator, and is often referred to as the president’s ‘fixer’, had been dispatched to Moscow to deliver the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to Vladimir Putin.

His visit had been scheduled near the start of the week, following the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.

But after arriving around lunchtime on Thursday, he was left twiddling his thumbs for at least eight hours before being called into the Kremlin.

Mr Putin was apparently too busy meeting someone else – Belarusian leader Aleksander Lukashenko – for a hastily arranged state visit that had been announced the day before.

Was ally’s visit a classic Putin power play?

We don’t know for sure if the timing of Mr Lukashenko’s visit was deliberate, but it certainly didn’t feel like a coincidence.

Instead, it felt like a classic Putin power play.

The Kremlin leader doesn’t like to be backed into a corner and told what to do, especially on his own turf.

This felt like a message to the Americans – “I’m the boss, I set the schedule, and I’m not beholden to anyone”.

He did eventually grant Mr Witkoff that all-important face time, once night had fallen and behind closed-doors.

We don’t know how long they spoke for, nor the exact details of their discussion, but I think we can make a pretty good guess given Mr Putin’s comments earlier in the evening.

At a press conference alongside Mr Lukashenko, he made it abundantly clear that he’ll only sign up to a ceasefire if he gets something in return.

And it’s not just one thing he wants.

All Russia’s red lines remain

By the sounds of things, he still wants everything.

His comment regarding the “root causes” of the conflict suggests all of Russia’s red lines remain – no NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO troops as peacekeepers, and for Russia to keep all the territory it has seized.

According to Russian media outlet Radio Mayak, Mr Putin’s meetings in the Kremlin finished at 1.30am.

Around half an hour later, Mr Witkoff was back at the airport – leaving Russia, it seems – not with Mr Putin’s agreement but with a list of demands.

It’s now up to Mr Trump to decide what to do next.