The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.
Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’smost powerful European military.
Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.
If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.
Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.
The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.
It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.
But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?
The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.
He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.
The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.
European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.
The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.
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From 2019: Was this the most awkward NATO summit ever?
Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.
He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.
Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.
Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.
Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.
He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.
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‘Ukraine needs more arms, less talking’
Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.
He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.
Venezuela has accused the US of “piracy” after an oil tanker was seized off the country’s coast.
Donald Trump announced the operation had taken place during a meeting of business leaders at the White House, telling reporters: “We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large, largest one ever seized, actually.”
Attorney General Pam Bondi shared a video of the operation, revealing the FBI, Homeland Security, US Coast Guard, and Department of Defence were involved.
She said the US forces “executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran”.
Venezuela’s government said the seizure “constitutes a blatant theft and an act of international piracy.”
Image: Pics: X/@AGPamBondi
Ms Bondi said the seized vessel – believed to be a tanker named Skipper – has been sanctioned by the US for many years “due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations”.
She did not name the vessel, what flag it sailed under, or exactly where the incident took place.
UK maritime risk management group Vanguard said that the tanker Skipper – which the US sanctioned for alleged involvement in Iranian oil trading under the name Adisa – was believed to be the target.
Trump offers ominous commentary
Without giving additional information on the operation, Mr Trump added during the White House meeting that “other things are happening”.
Later, Mr Trump said the tanker was “seized for a very good reason”, and when asked what will happen to the oil on board, he added: “Well, we keep it, I suppose.”
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3:15
US seizing oil tanker a ‘significant escalation’
How did we get here?
It marks another escalation from the US after months of pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The White House accuses Mr Maduro of presiding over a narcotrafficking operation in Venezuela, which he denies.
The US has escalated military deployments against the Latin American country over the last few months, with the president suggesting American forces could launch a land attack.
Speaking to Politico on Tuesday, Mr Trump declined to comment on whether US troops would enter Venezuela, but warned Mr Maduro’s “days are numbered”.
US interception of oil tanker raises more questions about international law
The seizing of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela is a significant escalation in US tactics.
By targeting an oil shipment, rather than a suspected drug boat, Washington has signalled its willingness to disrupt exports.
President Trump seems determined to shut down one of the last major sources of funding for Nicholas Maduro’s embattled government.
Nine months ago, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all goods imported into the US from any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela.
This is even more aggressive and will be viewed in Caracas as a direct threat to the country’s economy and sovereignty.
The interception of the tanker raises more questions about international maritime law and the reach of US enforcement powers.
In the space of four months, the US has bombed 23 boats, killing 87 people, accusing the occupants of being “narco-terrorists”.
It will also fuel speculation that airstrikes are imminent, President Trump having posted two weeks ago that he had closed the airspace.
Venezuela: ‘It has always been about our oil’
The Maduro government describes America’s actions as a grab for Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are among the biggest in the world.
At a rally before a ruling-party-organised demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, Mr Maduro did not address the seizure but told supporters Venezuela is “prepared to break the teeth of the North American empire if necessary”.
Flanked by senior officials, he said that only the ruling party can “guarantee peace, stability, and the harmonious development of Venezuela, South America and the Caribbean”.
His government did issue a statement, accusing the US of “piracy” and “imperial abuses”.
Of the US campaign, it said: “It has always been about our natural resources, our oil, our energy, the resources that belong exclusively to the Venezuelan people.”
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4:30
Are US strikes on Venezuela about drugs or oil?
Is military confrontation possible?
Geoffrey Corn, director of the Centre for Military Law at Texas Tech University, told Sky’s Mark Austin on The World that Mr Trump’s remarks on land strikes “ostensibly” refer to drug cartel members.
Formerly a senior adviser to the US army on warfare law, Mr Corn added: “That could very easily provide the pretext for some confrontation between Venezuelan armed forces and US armed forces.
“And then that would open the door to a broader campaign to basically negate the power of the Venezuelan military.”
Tributes have been paid to a British soldier killed in Ukraine, as the country’s allies prepare for talks before a crucial potential meeting with Donald Trump.
Lance Corporal George Hooley, 28, has been named as the paratrooper who died in a “tragic accident” on Tuesday while observing Ukrainian forces testing a new defensive capability away from the frontline.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said he joined the army in November 2015 and was “an exceptional soldier”.
Defence Secretary John Healey said he “served our country with distinction and professionalism” and “will be very deeply missed”.
He added: “George’s tragic death reminds us of the courage and commitment with which our outstanding armed forces serve every day to protect our nation.”
Coalition of the willing to meet
Britain has been one of Ukraine’s biggest backers since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, and that support will again come into play on Thursday.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will hold a virtual meeting with members of the self-styled coalition of the willing, after reports Kyiv has handed its revised peace deal proposal to US negotiators.
Mr Zelenskyy said the revised proposal has 20 points, after some “obvious anti-Ukrainian points were removed”.
The original US draft proposal had 28 points, and was seen as favouring Russia.
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4:16
Trump could ‘pull plug’ on Ukraine
Zelenskyy hopeful of progress
Ukraine has sought to change some key clauses, such as territorial issues and security guarantees, following talks with US and European negotiators.
In his nightly address on Wednesday, Mr Zelenskyy said his country is also drafting two additional documents: the first regarding US security guarantees and the second on the economy and reconstruction.
He said Kyiv’s peace delegation held a “productive conversation” with the US earlier, and “discussed key issues for recovery, various mechanisms, and visions of reconstruction”.
He also revealed he discussed the possibility of holding elections with Ukraine’s parliament, but that holding elections under martial law was not easy.
Trump has ‘strong words’ with European leaders
It comes after Donald Trump used an interview with Politico to accuse Mr Zelenskyy of “using war” to avoid holding elections. The US president also claimed his Ukrainian counterpart had not read the original 28-point peace plan.
Mr Trump held a call with coalition of the willing members Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, ad Friedrich Merz on Wednesday, and said some “pretty strong words” were exchanged.
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4:13
Why is Trump attacking European allies?
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Mr Trump said Mr Zelenskyy was keen on a meeting involving him and European leaders this weekend, but warned his attendance will be “based on what they come back with”.
Today’s virtual meeting comes days after Sir Keir hosted Mr Zelenskyy, Mr Macron and Mr Merz in Downing Street.
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Zelenskyy meets leaders in Downing Street
The period of intense diplomacy comes as the fighting continues on the ground in Ukraine.
Its military says it’s still fending off a Russian assault launched on the key city of Pokrovsk, while energy infrastructure has been targeted by drones in southern Odesa.
The Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado didn’t make it to Oslo in time to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in person, in an extraordinary day shrouded in uncertainty over her whereabouts.
Machado isn’t the first Nobel Laureate unable to attend, but her journey to Oslo was unprecedented in the history of the prestigious prize.
Her departure from Venezuela, carried out amid heavy secrecy and probably with covert US help, was fraught with risk, but on Wednesday she was en route to Norway, where she is expected to land late in the evening.
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0:57
Sister’s ‘mixed emotions’ over Nobel prize
Image: Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro joins supporters marching to commemorate the Battle of Santa Ines. Pic: Reuters
Reports suggested she first travelled by boat to the Caribbean island of Curaçao before getting a private flight via the US. Two US F-16 jets were tracked in the skies close to Curaçao late Tuesday night.
In a phone call with members of the Nobel Institute, released just after she took off, Machado said she was “very sad” not to make it in person but “as soon as I arrive, I will be able to embrace all my family and children.”
In her absence, her daughter Ana Corina Sosa Machado, whom she hasn’t seen for almost two years, collected the award in Oslo City Hall and delivered the speech her mother wrote.
She spoke about 2,500 people who had been “kidnapped, disappeared or tortured” under Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro’sgovernment and slammed the corruption that has brought Venezuela, once one of the world’s richest nations, to its knees.
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“This prize carries profound meaning; it reminds the world that democracy is essential to peace.
“More than anything, what we Venezuelans can offer the world is the lesson forged through this long and difficult journey – that to have democracy, we must be willing to fight for freedom.”
Image: Maria Corina Machado addresses supporters at an anti-Maduro protest in January. File pic: AP
Image: Corina Perez de Machado, mother of Maria Corina Machado, at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo. Pic: Reuters
To a standing ovation from an audience that included several South American leaders, Machado thanked the people of Norway and sent a message to her fellow countrymen and women, many of whom had travelled to Oslo from their homes outside Venezuela.
“Venezuela will breathe again,” her daughter read.
“We will open prison doors and watch thousands who were unjustly detained step into the warm sun, embraced at last by those who never stopped fighting for them.
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Are US strikes on Venezuela about drugs or oil?
“We will see our grandmothers settle children on their laps to tell them stories not of distant forefathers but of their own parents’ courage.
“We will hug again. Fall in love again. Hear our streets fill with laughter and music. All the simple joys the world takes for granted will be ours.”
Ms Machado is the leader of a grassroots political movement fighting for democracy in Venezuela.
She was banned by Nicolas Maduro from running for election, so she rallied a campaign behind a little-known veteran diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez.
She organised and trained more than a million volunteers to monitor elections in 2024 and collect data.
Those results, smuggled out of the country, were verified by independent experts and confirmed a landslide win for Gonzalez and Machado’s party.
Maduro refused to recognise the result and detained thousands of opponents.
Protests have failed to dislodge him, although US president Donald Trump has stationed a massive naval force off the coast and has warned the Venezuelan leader his “days are numbered”.
Mr Trump had lobbied publicly to win this year’s Nobel Prize himself, but rang Machado to congratulate her. Some members of Trump’s administration had threatened the Nobel committee if he didn’t win.
Edmundo Gonzalez, who was at the ceremony in Oslo, has since gone into exile in Spain, but Machado has remained in Venezuela, spending most of her time in hiding.
Her mother, sister and children have also travelled to Oslo to be reunited with her.
The decision to travel to Norway is fraught with risk.
Having successfully left the country, she faces a dangerous journey home again.