Donald Trump’s threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

Published

4 months ago

January 7, 2025

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The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.

Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’s most powerful European military.

Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.

If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.

Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.

The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.

It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.

But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?

The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.

He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.

The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.

European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.

The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.

Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.

He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.

Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.

Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.

Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.

He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.

Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.

He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.

World

Date set for conclave to decide next pope – here’s how the secretive process works

Published

17 mins ago

April 28, 2025

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Date set for conclave to decide next pope - here's how the secretive process works

The conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor will begin on 7 May, the Vatican has announced.

Some 135 cardinal electors – those under the age of 80 – will take part and vote for the new pontiff.

The rituals of the event, held in the Sistine Chapel, are elaborate and date back centuries. So how does the process work?

When Pope Francis died, the Catholic Church entered a period known as “sede vacante”, meaning “empty seat”.

His ring and seal – used to dispatch papal documents – were broken to prevent anyone else from using them.

Cardinal Kevin Farrell – the Camerlengo, or chamberlain, who announced Francis’s death – became the interim chief of the Catholic Church.

The conclave

Cardinals travel to Rome from all over the world and stay until a new pope is chosen.

Of the 252 current ones, there are 135 cardinal electors: 53 from Europe; 23 from Asia; 20 from North America; 18 from Africa; 17 from South America; and four from Oceania.

Italy has the most cardinals who can vote, with 17, while the US has 10 and Brazil has seven. The UK has three.

Once the conclave begins, the cardinals will not emerge from the Vatican until a new pope has been chosen. The word “conclave” comes from Latin, meaning “with key” – a reference to the isolation in which the cardinals are kept.

While holding voting sessions in the Sistine Chapel, they sleep in the Casa Santa Marta – a guesthouse inside the Vatican’s grounds.

The longest conclave lasted almost three years, between 1268 and 1271. Several have lasted only one day. The one which elected Pope John Paul in 1978 lasted less than three days. Cardinals chose Pope Francis in around two days.

While the conclave is ongoing, cardinals are unable to communicate with the outside world. No telephones, internet use or newspapers are allowed.

Except for the first day, when only one ballot is held, the cardinals hold two daily votes until one candidate has a majority of two-thirds plus one. They are sworn to secrecy about the voting.

White smoke?

So how do we know if a decision has been reached? Yes, this is the black smoke, white smoke part.

If the cardinals have not reached a majority, the cards and the tally sheets are placed in a stove and burned with an additive to produce black smoke, showing the outside world that a pope has not yet been chosen.

Watching for the tell-tale smoke arising from the top of the Sistine Chapel is a tradition, with Catholics crowding into St Peter’s Square for the spectacle.

If no result has been reached after three days, the sessions are suspended for a day to allow for prayer and discussion. More ballots are held until a two-thirds majority is reached.

When enough cardinals have agreed on a candidate, he is asked if he accepts the papacy and by which name he wishes to be known.

The ballots are burned as before, but with an additive to produce white smoke.

New pope proclaimed

The new pope then dons his new papal vestments – tailors keep large, medium and small sizes ready – and sits on a throne in the Sistine Chapel to receive the other cardinals who file up to pay homage and swear obedience to the church’s new leader.

The senior cardinal deacon then steps out on to the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square and announces in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. Habemus Papam” (I announce to you a great joy. We have a pope) and reveals the cardinal’s name and the name he has chosen.

The new pope then appears on the balcony to deliver his first public pontifical greeting and bless the crowds in St Peter’s Square.

A few days later, he celebrates a mass that marks the beginning of his papal ministry.

World

Canada might be the second election Trump wins in six months

Published

3 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Canada might be the second election Trump wins in six months

When Canada goes to the polls today, it might be the second election Donald Trump wins in six months.

The US president has transformed Canada’s political landscape, and the “Trump effect” looks like it will be the difference between winners and losers.

Tariffs, and his threat to annexe the country as the 51st state, have provoked a surge in Canadian nationalism, and it’s made a favourite of the candidate styled anti-Trump.

Step forward, Mark Carney: Former governor of the Bank of England, now Canadian prime minister.

His ruling Liberal party had been written off as an electoral contender. Canadians had turned their back on the party after a decade in power under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

The opposition Conservative Party, under the effective leadership of Pierre Poilievre, grew to a 25-point lead in the polls on the promise of change on the economy, crime and a chronic housing crisis.

However, his conservative politics are more aligned with the neighbour in the White House and, in Canada right now, it’s not a good look.

In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Conservative Party’s lead vanished within weeks, as Canadians turned to Carney as the choice to take on Trump.

If he wins, the swing from Conservative to Liberal will be the biggest swing in the polls in recent democratic history.

Carney, 60, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, as well as England. He replaced Mr Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and Canadian prime minister after his predecessor stepped down last month.

Polls indicate that Canadians see Carney as a stronger choice to negotiate with Donald Trump. He is a veteran of economic turmoil, having dealt with the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.

At a weekend news conference, Sky News asked the Canadian prime minister what lessons he’d learned from Brexit that could be applied to his dealings with Donald Trump.

He replied: “The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied. When you break off, or substantially rupture, trading relationships with your major trading partners, including the most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, weaker currency, a weaker economy.

“We’re in the early stages of that in the United States, and that’s one of the important things here. With respect to influencing the president, with respect to the dynamics of a negotiation, America’s going to get weaker as time goes on, we’re going to get stronger.”

Canada’s vote is as close as it gets to a single-issue election.

Carney’s position as favourite is reinforced consistently by the opinion polls, although the gap narrowed as election day approached.

It could yet be tight.

World

Trump ‘very disappointed’ in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to ‘sit down and sign a deal’

Published

9 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Trump 'very disappointed' in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to 'sit down and sign a deal'

Donald Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Russia as he continues to push for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.

On Saturday, the US president met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican for their first face-to-face meeting since their explosive White House summit.

The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.

Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainian leader was “calmer”.

“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.

“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.

However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.

He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.

Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.

“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.

It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.

State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.

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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”

It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.

Last June, Mr Kim and Mr Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty after a state visit – his first to the country in 24 years.

The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.