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Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

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This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

USE THIS Chart 1 So... What changed?

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

USE THIS chart 2 Europe is deindustrialising fast

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

Chart 3 European gas pipelines from Russia USE THIS

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

Chart 4 USE THIS storage is low too

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

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Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax Group crashes into insolvency

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Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax Group crashes into insolvency

The owner of the Lindsey oil refinery has crashed into insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at risk at the energy conglomerate behind the Lincolnshire site.

Sky News has learnt that State Oil, the parent company of Prax Group, which has oilfield interests in the Shetlands and owns roughly 200 petrol stations, has been forced to call in administrators amid mounting losses at the refinery.

Oil industry sources said an announcement was expected later on Monday.

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One of the sources said the Official Receiver had appointed FTI Consulting to act as special manager for the Lindsey facility, with Teneo hired as administrator for the rest of the group.

About 180 people work at State Oil Ltd, Prax Group’s parent entity, while roughly 440 more are employed at the Prax Lindsey Refinery.

The rest of the group is understood to employ hundreds more people.

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Prax Group is owned by Sanjeev Kumar Soosaipillai, who also acts as its chairman and chief executive, according to its website.

The crisis at the Lindsey refinery, which is located on a 500-acre site five miles from the Humber Estuary, echoes that at Britain’s dwindling number of oil refineries.

According to the company, the site has an annual production capacity of 5.4 million tonnes, processing more than 20 different types of crude including petrol, diesel, bitumen, fuel oil and aviation fuels.

The refinery, which was bought from France’s Total in 2020, is understood to have become a growing drain on cash across the wider Prax Group, with which it has cross-guarantees.

Some of the company’s assets, including the petrol stations and oilfields, are not themselves in administration but will be the subject of insolvency practitioners’ decisions about their future ownership.

It was unclear on Monday morning whether bidders would step in to salvage some of the company’s assets, although industry executives believe there are likely to be buyers for many of its fuel retailing and oilfield assets.

Prax Group also bought its West of Shetland oil assets from Total after a deal struck last year.

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In a statement issued to Sky News, Teneo said it would “urgently assess the position of the company and the wholesale operations”.

“A key priority is to establish the prospect for subsidiaries of the company that remain outside of any insolvency process, including retail operations under the Harvest Energies, Total Energies and Breeze brands in the UK and the OIL! Brand in Europe, Logistics operator Axis Logistics and Prax’s upstream business, formerly Hurricane Energy.

“There are no plans for redundancies at this stage.”

Prax Group could not be reached for comment, while FTI Consulting and the Official Receiver have all been contacted for comment.

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

Changes to welfare reforms, forced on the government by rebel Labour MPs, are being revealed today ahead of a crucial vote.

The original bill restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (PIP) and cut the health-related element of universal credit (UC).

The government, which insisted welfare costs were becoming unsustainable, was forced into a U-turn after 126 Labour backbenchers signed an amendment that would have halted the bill at its first Commons hurdle.

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While the amendment is expected to be withdrawn, after changes that appeased some Labour MPs, others are still unhappy and considering backing a similar amendment to be tabled today.

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Starmer defends welfare U-turn

Here are the main changes to the UC and PIP bill:

• current PIP claimants will keep their benefits; stricter eligibility requirements will only apply to new claims from November 2026
• a review of the PIP assessment, which will have input from disabled people
• existing recipients of the health-related element of UC will have their incomes protected in real terms

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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement that the legislation now aims to deliver a “fairer, more compassionate system” ahead of the second reading and vote on Tuesday.

“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can. Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.

“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.

“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall
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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insists welfare reforms will create ‘a fairer, more compassionate system’. Pic: PA

On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said fixing the UK’s welfare system was a “moral imperative”. The government claimed cuts to sickness and disability benefits would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

The Resolution Foundation believes the concessions could cost as much as £3bn, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the changes make tax rises more likely.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that welfare bill changes have put Labour in a much better position ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

On Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said: “There were things that we didn’t get right, we’ve put right, and there’ll be a debate about future amendments and things, I’m sure, as it goes through in the usual way.”

Streeting talking to Trevor Phillips
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Talking to Sky News about the welfare reforms, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there were things Labour ‘didn’t get right’

On the same programme, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately repeatedly refused to say whether the Conservatives would back the bill, but would review the proposals after the minister’s statement later.

“We have said that if there are more savings that actually bring the welfare bill down, if they’ll get more people into work, and if they commit to using the savings to avoid tax cuts in the autumn, which looks highly unlikely at the moment, then they have our support.”

The Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the bill and have called for the government to speed up access-to-work decisions to help people enter the workforce.

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Donald Trump says ‘very wealthy group’ has agreed to buy TikTok in the US

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Donald Trump says 'very wealthy group' has agreed to buy TikTok in the US

Donald Trump has said the US government has found a buyer for TikTok that he will reveal “in about two weeks”.

The president told Fox News “it’s a group of very wealthy people”, adding: “I think I’ll probably need China approval, I think President Xi will probably do it.”

TikTok was ordered last year to find a new owner for its US operation – or face a ban – after politicians said they feared sensitive data about Americans could be passed to the Chinese government.

The video app’s owner, Bytedance, has repeatedly denied such claims.

It originally had a deadline of 19 January to find a buyer – and many users were shocked when it “went dark” for a number of hours when that date came round, before later being restored.

However, President Trump has now extended the deadline several times.

The last extension was on 19 June, when he signed an executive order pushing it back to 17 September.

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Mr Trump’s latest comments suggest multiple people coming together to take control of the app in the US.

Among those rumoured to be potential buyers include YouTube superstar Mr Beast, US search engine startup Perplexity AI, and Kevin O’Leary – an investor from Shark Tank (the US version of Dragons’ Den).

Bytedance said in April that it was still talking to the US government, but there were “differences on many key issues”.

It’s believed the Chinese government will have to approve any agreement.

The president said the identity of the buyer would be disclosed in about two weeks. Pic: Fox News
Image:
The president said the identity of the buyer would be disclosed in about two weeks. Pic: Fox News

President Trump’s interview with Fox News also touched on the upcoming end of the pause in US tariffs on imported goods.

On April 9, he granted a 90-day reprieve for countries threatened with a tariff of more than 10% to give them time to negotiate.

Deals have already been struck with some countries, including the UK.

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The president said he didn’t think he would need to push back the 9 July deadline and that letters would be sent out imminently stating what tariff each country would face.

“We’ll look at the deficit we have – or whatever it is with the country; we’ll look at how the country treats us – are they good, are they not so good. Some countries, we don’t care – we’ll just send a high number out,” he said.

“But we’re going to be sending letters out starting pretty soon. We don’t have to meet, we have all the numbers.”

The president announced the tariffs in April, arguing they were correcting an unfair trade relationship and would return lost prosperity to US industries such as car-making.

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