Energy bills could rise more as continent effectively rationing gas with storage levels low

Published

2 months ago

January 7, 2025

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Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

Business

Trump threatens EU with 200% tariffs on alcohol – including wine and champagne

Published

20 hours ago

March 13, 2025

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Trump threatens EU with 200% tariffs on alcohol - including wine and champagne

Donald Trump has warned the European Union he will impose a 200% tariff on its alcohol – including wine and champagne – if the bloc imposes duties on US whiskey.

The US president used a social media post to issue his latest threat to the EU, having previously warned that it was created to “screw the United States” and would “very soon” face his escalating trade war.

He wrote in a Truth Social post: “The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% tariff on whisky.

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“If this tariff is not removed immediately, the US will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES.

“This will be great for the wine and champagne businesses in the US,” he concluded.

It was Mr Trump‘s response to a European Commission pledge to reimpose previously suspended tariffs on the US in response to US steel and aluminium duties which came into force on Wednesday.

The commission said its retaliatory measures would target US goods worth €26bn from 1 April unless talks could resolve the trade war escalation.

Mr Trump is widely expected, from 2 April, to carry out a previous threat that would see all EU exports to the United States come under tariffs – mirroring current plans to target his closest neighbours Mexico and Canada.

Financial markets were quick to react to the latest escalation, with EU stock markets sinking across the board.

The declines were led by drinks manufacturers. Pernod Ricard on the CAC in Paris, for example, was more than 3.5% lower in the moments after Mr Trump’s post was published.

The FTSE 100 was also in negative territory. Diageo, which counts Irish-made favourite Guinness among its stable of brands, was only 0.1% down.

While the UK has not been threatened directly with tariffs beyond the universal steel and aluminium duties, many of its constituent companies would be hurt by an expanding EU-US trade spat.

United Nations data shows that EU nations export alcoholic drinks worth more than $11bn per year to the United States, with wine accounting for half that sum.

It was understood that before the threat was made, Spain, France and Italy had been among nations urging the EU not to target wine and spirits as part of its response to the metals duties.

The Irish Whiskey Association said of the growing protectionism: “There is no winner in a trade war. The imposition of tariffs will impact on our businesses and our consumers.

“Having our sector implicated in this dispute puts jobs, investments and businesses at risk and has the potential to be devastating for Irish Whiskey.”

Business

John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

Published

23 hours ago

March 13, 2025

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John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

The John Lewis Partnership (JLP) has revealed a 73% rise in annual profits but says staff will receive no bonus for the third year in a row.

The employee-owned business, behind John Lewis department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, said earnings over the 12 months to January came in at £97m – up from the £56m achieved in the previous year.

Group sales rose 3% to £12.8bn, driven by Waitrose, in a year when the department store chain restored its ‘Never Knowingly Undersold’ price promise that was scrapped in 2022.

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New chair Jason Tarry signalled a further £600m investment in its operations on the back of the improved profit performance and a focus on regular pay for staff, known as partners, over a one-off reward.

A 7.4% wage rise was revealed earlier this month as the business moved to bolster retention amid the barren spell for annual bonuses that has only seen one paid out over the last five years.

The last financial year marked only the fourth time since 1953 that JLP had not awarded a bonus.

Mr Tarry, who succeeded Dame Sharon White six months ago amid a post pandemic turnaround plan that included the closure of underperforming stores and thousands of job losses, said “careful consideration” had been given to the bonus.

He told the group’s 73,000 partners: “These are solid results, which show that our customers are responding well to our investments in quality products, value and service.

“We have made good progress with much more still to do.

“Looking forward, I see significant opportunity for growth from both our Waitrose and John Lewis brands.

“Our focus will be on enhancing what makes these brands truly special for our customers.

“This will involve considerable catch-up investment in our stores and supply chain.”

Business

Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

Published

2 days ago

March 12, 2025

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Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

Donald Trump’s trade war has expanded to cover the world, with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US in effect from today, affecting UK products worth hundreds of millions of pounds.

The duties were announced in mid-February as stock market investors cheered President Trump‘s ‘America first’ agenda which saw only Mexico, Canada and China come under initial pressure.

While two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted, 25% duties on some Canadian and most Mexican cross-border trade have been withdrawn until 2 April at the earliest.

The tariffs beginning today are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.

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They threaten to make the cost of things like cars to soft drink cans – and therefore some drinks – more expensive.

Canada is the biggest exporter of both steel and aluminium to America. However, the White House on Tuesday rowed back on a threat to double the country’s tariff to 50%.

The American tariffs are a threat to UK steel exports worth north of £350m annually – with the bulk of that coming from stainless steel.

The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.

“I will continue to engage closely and productively with the US to press the case for UK business interests,” he said.

The EU, however, vowed to retaliate with €26bn of counter tariffs on US goods starting from 1 April,

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said she remained open to “meaningful dialogue” with the US.

During Mr Trump’s first term, the bloc countered tariffs with charges on products such as US-made bourbon and jeans which were later suspended.

These duties would be re-imposed from April, the Commission said, with further products added to match the value of the US tariff hit.

Industry body UK Steel said it was a trading partner with the US, not a threat, and urged a government response.

Any fall in demand among US customers will leave producers scrambling for new markets, though some could be directed to domestic projects within the UK.

That steel could prove attractive as China, the world’s largest producer of steel, has threatened to limit its exports in response to the Trump tariffs.

President Trump is under growing pressure to row back, particularly in his planned battle with nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada.

Markets have turned on the tariff regime, with jitters about the effects of higher import prices souring the US economy first being seen through the currency and bond markets.

The dollar has lost around five cents against both the pound and a resurgent euro alone in the past few weeks.

Stock markets have joined in, with the combined market value of the broad S&P 500’s constituent companies down by more than $4trn on the peak seen just last month.

The big fear is that the protectionism will push the world’s largest economy into recession – a scenario Mr Trump did not deny was possible during a weekend interview.

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US firms, already also grappling the complexities associated with an expanding tariff regime, are also letting it be known that they expect damage to their own businesses.

Delta Airlines lowered its first quarter growth forecast on the back of the turmoil this week while US firms are increasingly facing product boycotts.

Travel bodies have also reported a big drop in the number of Canadians crossing the US border, with road trips down by almost a quarter last month compared to February 2023 according to Statistics Canada.