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Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

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This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

USE THIS Chart 1 So... What changed?

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

USE THIS chart 2 Europe is deindustrialising fast

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

Chart 3 European gas pipelines from Russia USE THIS

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

Chart 4 USE THIS storage is low too

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

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City traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned after 10-year fight

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City traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned after 10-year fight

Two traders jailed for rigging benchmark interest rates have had their convictions overturned by the Supreme Court.

Tom Hayes, 45, was handed a 14-year jail sentence – cut to 11 years on appeal – in 2015, which was one of the toughest ever to be imposed for white-collar crime in UK history.

The former Citigroup and UBS trader, along with Carlo Palombo, 46, who was jailed for four years in 2019 over rigging the Euribor interest rates, took their cases to the country’s highest court after the Court of Appeal dismissed their appeals last year.

The Supreme Court unanimously allowed Mr Hayes’ appeal, overturning his 2015 conviction of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud by manipulating Libor, a now-defunct benchmark interest rate.

Tom Hayes and  Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
Pic: Reuters
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their convictions were overturned. Pic: Reuters

Ex-vice president of euro rates at Barclays bank Mr Palombo’s conviction for conspiring with others to submit false or misleading Euribor submissions between 2005 and 2009 was also quashed.

Mr Hayes, who served five and a half years in prison before being released on licence in 2021, described the “incredible feeling” after the ruling.

“My faith in the criminal justice system at times was likely destroyed and it has been restored by the justices from the Supreme Court today and I think it’s only right that more criminal appeals should be heard at this level,” he said.

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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
Pic: Reuters
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo outside the Supreme Court. Pic: Reuters

Both he and Mr Palombo have been described as “scapegoats” for the 2008 financial crisis, but Mr Hayes said: “We literally had nothing to do with it.”

A spokesperson for the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), which opposed the appeals, said it would not be seeking a retrial.

In 2012, the SFO began criminal investigations into traders it suspected of manipulating the Libor and Euribor benchmark interest rates.

Former trader Tom Hayes.
Pic: PA
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Former trader Tom Hayes. Pic: PA

Mr Hayes was the first person to be prosecuted by the SFO, which brought prosecutions against 20 people between 2013 and 2019, seven of whom were convicted at trial, two pleaded guilty and 11 were acquitted.

He had also been facing criminal charges in the US but these were dismissed after two other men involved in a similar case had their convictions reversed in 2022.

Mr Hayes, a gifted mathematician who is autistic, was described at his Southwark Crown Court trial as the “ringmaster” at the centre of an enormous fraud to manipulate benchmark interest rates and boost his own six-figure earnings.

He has always maintained that the Libor rates he requested fell within a permissible range and that his conduct was common at the time and condoned by bosses.

Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo argued their convictions depended on a definition of Libor and Euribor which assumes there is an absolute legal bar on a bank’s commercial interests being taken into account when setting rates.

The panel of five Supreme Court justices found there was “ample evidence” for a jury to convict the two men if it had been properly directed.

But in an 82-page judgment, Lord Leggatt said jury direction errors made both convictions unsafe, adding: “That misdirection undermined the fairness of the trial.”

Lawyers representing Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo said the ruling could open the door for the seven others found guilty to have their convictions overturned and that there were grounds for a public inquiry.

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

London and the UK’s leading status in the global financial system is “fragile”, the boss of Goldman Sachs has warned, as the government grapples with a tough economy.

Speaking ahead of a meeting with the prime minister, David Solomon – chairman and chief executive of the huge US investment bank – told Sky News presenter Wilfred Frost’s The Master Investor Podcast of several concerns related to tax and regulation.

He urged the government not to push people and business away through poor policy that would damage its primary aim of securing improved economic growth, arguing that European rivals were currently proving more attractive.

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He said: “The financial industry is still driven by talent and capital formation. And those things are much more mobile than they were 25 years ago.

“London continues to be an important financial centre. But because of Brexit, because of the way the world’s evolving, the talent that was more centred here is more mobile.

“We as a firm have many more people on the continent. Policy matters, incentives matter.

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“I’m encouraged by some of what the current government is talking about in terms of supporting business and trying to support a more growth oriented agenda.

“But if you don’t set a policy that keeps talent here, that encourages capital formation here, I think over time you risk that.”

He had a stark warning about the recent reversal of the “Non Dom” tax policy, which occurred across both the prior Conservative government and the current Labour government, which has played a part in some senior Goldman partners relocating away from London.

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Chancellor will not be drawn on wealth tax

Richard Gnodde, one of the bank’s vice-chairs, left for Milan earlier this year.

“Incentives matter if you create tax policy or incentives that push people away, you harm your economy,” Mr Solomon continued.

“If you go back, you know, ten years ago, I think we probably had 80 people in Paris. You know, we have 400 people in Paris now… And so in Goldman Sachs today, if you’re in Europe, you can live in London, you can live in Paris, you can live in Germany, in Frankfurt or Munich, you can live in Italy, you can live in Switzerland.

“And we’ve got, you know, real offices. You just have to recognise talent is more mobile.”

Goldman is understood to have about 6,000 employees in the UK.

Rachel Reeves is currently seeking ways to fill a black hole in the public finances and has refused to rule out wealth taxes at the next budget.

Mr Solomon expressed sympathy for her as her tears in parliament earlier this month led to speculation about the pressure of the job.

“I have sympathy, I have empathy not just for the chancellor, but for anyone who’s serving in one of these governments,” he said, referring to the turbulent political landscape globally.

Commenting on the chancellor’s Mansion House speech last week, he added: “The chancellor spoke here about regulation, she’s talking about regulation not just for safety and soundness, but also for growth.

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Takeaways from chancellor’s Mansion House speech

“And now we have to see the action steps that actually follow through and encourage that.”

One area he was particularly keen to see follow through from her Mansion House speech was ringfencing – the post financial crisis regulation that requires banks to separate their retail activities from their investment banking activities.

“It’s a place where the UK is an outlier, and by being an outlier, it prevents capital formation and growth.

“What’s the justification for being an outlier? Why is this so difficult to change? It’s hard to make a substantive policy argument that this is like a great policy for the UK. So why is it so hard to change?”

The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost is available across multiple podcast platforms

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Government borrowing soars to second-highest level on record

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Government borrowing soars to second-highest level on record

Government borrowing rose significantly more than expected last month as debt interest payments soared.

Official figures show the cost of public services and interest payments on government debt rose faster than the increases in income tax and national insurance contributions.

It means government borrowing reached the second-highest level in June since records began in 1993, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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June’s borrowing figures – £20.684bn – were second only to the highs seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when many workers were furloughed.

The figure was a surprise, nearly £4bn higher than anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

State borrowing – the difference between income from things like taxes and expenditure on the likes of public services – was more than £6bn higher than the same month last year.

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Pushing the borrowing figure up was the high cost of interest payments, which was the second-highest June figure since those records began in 1997. Only June 2022 saw higher spending on government debt.

But despite the latest rise, borrowing this year is in line with the March forecast from the independent forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), though it’s the second month in a row borrowing was above its projections.

It’s bad news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has vowed to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030 as part of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

She’s expected to increase taxes to meet the gap between spending and tax revenue.

The pressure is such that analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.”

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Rob Wood, its chief UK economist, estimated the size of the gap between government expenditure and income has grown.

“All told, we estimate that the chancellor’s £9.9bn of headroom has turned into a £13bn hole, meaning that Ms Reeves would need to raise taxes or cut spending by a little over £20bn in the autumn budget to restore her slim margin of headroom,” he said.

“We expect ‘sin tax’ and duty hikes, freezing income tax thresholds for an extra year in 2029 and a pensions tax raid – reinstating the lifetime limit on pension pots and cutting relief – to fill most of the hole.”

Taxes on goods such as alcohol and tobacco are classed as sin taxes.

Darren Jones, Ms Reeves’s deputy as the chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “We are committed to tough fiscal rules, so we do not borrow for day-to-day spending and get debt down as a share of our economy.”

“This commitment to economic stability means we can get on with investing in Britain’s renewal.”

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