Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?
It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.
If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.
For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.
All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.
But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.
This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.
That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.
Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.
With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.
And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.
As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.
According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”
Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.
The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.
Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.
Ava was heading home from Pizza Hut when she found out her dad had been arrested.
Warning: This article includes references to indecent images of children and suicide that some readers may find distressing
It had been “a really good evening” celebrating her brother’s birthday.
Ava (not her real name) was just 13, and her brother several years younger. Their parents had divorced a few years earlier and they were living with their mum.
Suddenly Ava’s mum, sitting in the front car seat next to her new boyfriend, got a phone call.
“She answered the phone and it was the police,” Ava remembers.
“I think they realised that there were children in the back so they kept it very minimal, but I could hear them speaking.”
“I was so scared,” she says, as she overheard about his arrest.
Image: ‘Ava’ says she was ‘repulsed’ after discovering what her dad had done
“I was panicking loads because my dad actually used to do a lot of speeding and I was like: ‘Oh no, he’s been caught speeding, he’s going to get in trouble.'”
But Ava wasn’t told what had really happened until many weeks later, even though things changed immediately.
“We found out that we weren’t going to be able to see our dad for, well we didn’t know how long for – but we weren’t allowed to see him, or even speak to him. I couldn’t text him or anything. I was just wondering what was going on, I didn’t know. I didn’t understand.”
Ava’s dad, John, had been arrested for looking at indecent images of children online.
We hear this first-hand from John (not his real name), who we interviewed separately from Ava. What he told us about his offending was, of course, difficult to hear.
His offending went on for several years, looking at indecent images and videos of young children.
His own daughter told us she was “repulsed” by what he did.
But John wanted to speak to us, frankly and honestly.
He told us he was “sorry” for what he had done, and that it was only after counselling that he realised the “actual impact on the people in the images” of his crime.
By sharing his story, he hopes to try to stop other people doing what he did and raise awareness about the impact this type of offence has – on everyone involved, including his unsuspecting family.
John tells us he’d been looking at indecent images and videos of children since 2013.
“I was on the internet, on a chat site,” he says. “Someone sent a link. I opened it, and that’s what it was.
“Then more people started sending links and it just kind of gathered pace from there really. It kind of sucks you in without you even realising it. And it becomes almost like a drug, to, you know, get your next fix.”
John says he got a “sexual kick” from looking at the images and claims “at the time, when you’re doing it, you don’t realise how wrong it is”.
‘I told them exactly what they would find’
At the point of his arrest, John had around 1,000 indecent images and videos of children on his laptop – some were Category A, the most severe.
Referencing the counselling that he since received, John says he believes the abuse he received as a child affected the way he initially perceived what he was doing.
“I had this thing in my mind,” he says, “that the kids in these were enjoying it.”
“Unfortunately, [that] was the way that my brain was wired up” and “I’m not proud of it”, he adds.
John had been offending for several years when he downloaded an image that had been electronically tagged by security agencies. It flagged his location to police.
John was arrested at his work and says he “straight away just admitted everything”.
“I told them exactly what they would find, and they found it.”
The police bailed John – and he describes the next 24 hours as “hell”.
“I wanted to kill myself,” he remembers. “It was the only way I could see out of the situation. I was just thinking about my family, my daughter and my son, how is it going to affect them?”
But John says the police had given information about a free counselling service, a helpline, which he called that day.
“It stopped me in my tracks and probably saved my life.”
Image: ‘John’ thinks children of abusers should get more support
‘My world was crumbling around me’
Six weeks later, John was allowed to make contact with Ava.
By this point she describes how she was “hysterically crying” at school every day, not knowing what had happened to her dad.
But once he told her what he’d done, things got even worse.
“When I found out, it genuinely felt like my world was crumbling around me,” Ava says.
“I felt like I couldn’t tell anyone. I was so embarrassed of what people might think of me. It sounds so silly, but I was so scared that people would think that I would end up like him as well, which would never happen.
“It felt like this really big secret that I just had to hold in.”
“I genuinely felt like the only person that was going through something like this,” Ava says.
She didn’t know it then, but her father also had a sense of fear and shame.
“Youcan’t share what you’ve done with anybody because people can get killed for things like that,” he says.
“It would take a very, very brave man to go around telling people something like that.”
And as for his kids?
“They wouldn’t want to tell anybody, would they?” he says.
For her, Ava says “for a very, very long time” things were “incredibly dark”.
“I turned to drugs,” she says. “I was doing lots of like Class As and Bs and going out all the time, I guess because it just was a form of escape.
“There was a point in my life where I just I didn’t believe it was going to get better. I really just didn’t want to exist. I was just like, if this is what life is like then why am I here?”
Image: Professor Armitage says children of abusers should be legally recognised as victims
‘The trauma is huge for those children’
Ava felt alone, but research shows this is happening to thousands of British children every year.
Whereas suspects like John are able to access free services, such as counselling, there are no similar automatic services for their children – unless families can pay.
Professor Rachel Armitage, a criminology expert, set up a Leeds-based charity called Talking Forward in 2021.
It’s the only free, in-person, peer support group for families of suspected online child sex offenders in England. But it does not have the resources to provide support for under-18s.
“The trauma is huge for those children,” Prof Armitage says.
“We have families that are paying for private therapy for their children and getting in a huge amount of debt to pay for that.”
Prof Armitage says if these children were legally recognised as victims, then if would get them the right level of automatic, free support.
It’s not unheard of for “indirect” or “secondary” victims to be recognised in law.
Currently, the Domestic Abuse Act does that for children in a domestic abuse household, even if the child hasn’t been a direct victim themselves.
In the case of children like Ava, Prof Armitage says it would mean “they would have communication with the parents in terms of what was happening with this offence; they would get the therapeutic intervention and referral to school to let them know that something has happened, which that child needs consideration for”.
We asked the Ministry of Justice whether children of online child sex offenders could be legally recognised as victims.
“We sympathise with the challenges faced by the unsuspecting families of sex offenders and fund a helpline for prisoners’ families which provides free and confidential support,” a spokesperson said.
But when we spoke with that helpline, and several other charities that the Ministry of Justice said could help, they told us they could only help children with a parent in prison – which for online offences is, nowadays, rarely the outcome.
None of them could help children like Ava, whose dad received a three-year non-custodial sentence, and was put on the sex offenders’ register for five years.
“These children will absolutely fall through the gap,” Prof Armitage says.
“I think there’s some sort of belief that these families are almost not deserving enough,” she says. “That there’s some sort of hierarchy of harms, and that they’re not harmed enough, really.”
Image: ‘Ava’ started taking drugs after her dad’s arrest and ‘didn’t want to exist’
‘People try to protect kids from people like me’
Ava says there is simply not enough help – and that feels unfair.
“In some ways we’re kind of forgotten about by the services,” she says. “It’s always about the offender.”
John agrees with his daughter.
“I think the children should get more support than the offender because nobody stops and ask them really, do they?” he says.
“Nobody thinks about what they’re going through.”
Although Ava and John now see each other, they have never spoken about the impact that John’s offending had on his daughter.
Ava was happy for us to share with John what she had gone through.
“I never knew it was that bad,” he says. “I understand that this is probably something that will affect her the rest of her life.
“You try to protect your kids, don’t you. People try to protect their kids from people like me.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
MasterChef presenter John Torode will no longer work on the show after an allegation he used an “extremely offensive racist term” was upheld, the BBC has said.
His co-host Gregg Wallace was also sacked last week after claims of inappropriate behaviour.
On Monday, Torode said an allegation he used racist language was upheld in a report into the behaviour of Wallace. The report found more than half of 83 allegations against Wallace were substantiated.
Torode, 59, insisted he had “absolutely no recollection” of the alleged incident involving him and he “did not believe that it happened,” adding “racial language is wholly unacceptable in any environment”.
Image: John Torode and Gregg Wallace in 2008. Pic: PA
In a statement on Tuesday, a BBCspokesperson said the allegation “involves an extremely offensive racist term being used in the workplace”.
The claim was “investigated and substantiated by the independent investigation led by the law firm Lewis Silkin”, they added.
“The BBC takes this upheld finding extremely seriously,” the spokesperson said.
“We will not tolerate racist language of any kind… we told Banijay UK, the makers of MasterChef, that action must be taken.
“John Torode’s contract on MasterChef will not be renewed.”
Australian-born Torode started presenting MasterChef alongside Wallace, 60, in 2005.
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1:11
Why Gregg Wallace says he ‘will not go quietly’
A statement from Banijay UK said it “takes this matter incredibly seriously” and Lewis Silkin “substantiated an accusation of highly offensive racist language against John Torode which occurred in 2018”.
“This matter has been formally discussed with John Torode by Banijay UK, and whilst we note that John says he does not recall the incident, Lewis Silkin have upheld the very serious complaint,” the TV production company added.
“Banijay UK and the BBC are agreed that we will not renew his contract on MasterChef.”
Earlier, as the BBC released its annual report, its director-general Tim Davie addressed MasterChef’s future, saying it can survive as it is “much bigger than individuals”.
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BBC annual report findings
Speaking to BBC News after Torode was sacked, Mr Davie said a decision is yet to be taken over whether an unseen MasterChef series – filmed with both Wallace and Torode last year – will be aired.
“It’s a difficult one because… those amateur chefs gave a lot to take part – it means a lot, it can be an enormous break if you come through the show,” he added.
“I want to just reflect on that with the team and make a decision, and we’ll communicate that in due course.”
Mr Davie refused to say what the “seriously racist term” Torode was alleged to have used but said: “I certainly think we’ve drawn a line in the sand.”
In 2022, Torode was made an MBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours, for services to food and charity.
An inquiry into the case of a hospital worker who sexually abused dozens of corpses has concluded that “offences such as those committed by David Fuller could happen again”.
It found that “current arrangements in England for the regulation and oversight of the care of people after death are partial, ineffective and, in significant areas, completely lacking”.
Phase 2 of the inquiry has examined the broader national picture and considered if procedures and practices in other hospital and non-hospital settings, where deceased people are kept, safeguard their security and dignity.
During his time as a maintenance worker, he also abused the corpses of at least 101 women and girls at Kent and Sussex Hospital and the Tunbridge Wells Hospital before his arrest in December 2020.
His victims ranged in age from nine to 100.
Phase 1 of the inquiry found he entered one mortuary 444 times in the space of one year “unnoticed and unchecked” and that deceased people were also left out of fridges and overnight during working hours.
‘Inadequate management, governance and processes’
Presenting the findings on Tuesday, Sir Jonathan Michael, chair of the inquiry, said: “This is the first time that the security and dignity of people after death has been reviewed so comprehensively.
“Inadequate management, governance and processes helped create the environment in which David Fuller was able to offend for so long.”
He said that these “weaknesses” are not confined to where Fuller operated, adding that he found examples from “across the country”.
“I have asked myself whether there could be a recurrence of the appalling crimes committed by David Fuller. – I have concluded that yes, it is entirely possible that such offences could be repeated, particularly in those sectors that lack any form of statutory regulation.”
Sir Jonathan called for a statutory regulation to “protect the security and dignity of people after death”.
After an initial glance, his interim report already called for urgent regulation to safeguard the “security and dignity of the deceased”.
On publication of his final report he describes regulation and oversight of care as “ineffective, and in significant areas completely lacking”.
David Fuller was an electrician who committed sexual offences against at least 100 deceased women and girls in the mortuaries of the Kent and Sussex Hospital and the Tunbridge Wells Hospital. His victims ranged in age from nine to 100.
This first phase of the inquiry found Fuller entered the mortuary 444 times in a single year, “unnoticed and unchecked”.
It was highly critical of the systems in place that allowed this to happen.
His shocking discovery, looking at the broader industry – be it other NHS Trusts or the 4,500 funeral directors in England – is that it could easily have happened elsewhere.
The conditions described suggest someone like Fuller could get away with it again.