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Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

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This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

USE THIS Chart 1 So... What changed?

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

USE THIS chart 2 Europe is deindustrialising fast

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

Chart 3 European gas pipelines from Russia USE THIS

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

Chart 4 USE THIS storage is low too

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

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The town bracing for UK’s biggest council tax rise of almost 16%

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The town bracing for UK's biggest council tax rise of almost 16%

The last thing I was expecting to discover on the doorstep of a Falkirk house was a 70-year-old woman crying at the near 16% council tax rise she and tens of thousands of others face next month.

Falkirk is bracing for the UK’s biggest hike in bills as the local authority faces a crisis of costs.

One councillor responsible for the increases has called in the police after receiving beheading taunts and threats of violence.

The area is facing its most difficult period in its 30-year history, while residents feel fragile and fobbed off.

Councils oversee the running of schools and social care, maintaining roads and collecting bins. They take charge of housing, swimming pools and libraries. The list is endless.

But Britain’s local authorities are cash-strapped and there are questions about how they should be funded in the long term.

Sky News went inside one Falkirk street to get a snapshot of the mood – and it was bleak.

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Catherine Mochar
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Catherine Mochar

We went door to door on Wilson Road and first stumbled across 70-year-old Catherine Mochar.

The unpaid carer was seemingly unaware of the upcoming changes to her bill and became visibly upset at the prospect of scraping together more cash in her already extremely stretched household budget.

“It’s absolutely ridiculous,” she said as her voice cracked.

Ms Mochar looks after her elderly sister and says her care package was revoked as the pensioner was deemed suitable to deal with the situation herself.

She says she is not entitled to a council tax exemption and worries about finding an extra 15.6%.

She said: “I am a pensioner. I don’t know where I am going to get it [the money] from. It is quite scary the thought of it.”

Claire Hamilton and William Reid
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Claire Hamilton and William Reid

Round the corner from Catherine’s house, we meet a family who feel like they are paying more and getting less.

Claire Hamilton and William Reid have a three-year-old son and regularly use the local foodbank to make ends meet.

“It is going to become a choice between heating the house or paying council tax. Or getting food in and paying the council tax,” Claire says.

“It is quite a jump for not a lot in return. The collections on the bins keep getting longer and longer.”

She continues: “You want to do the best by your child and obviously they are not aware of all these stresses going on in the background.”

Council tax differs across UK

A drop in the frequency of bin collections is a moan people across the UK share and feeds into the narrative surrounding local services.

Council tax rates have been frozen or capped for much of the last two decades in Scotland, but this year the Scottish government has granted local leaders the power to go their own way.

In England, a principle exists which usually prevents more than a 5% increase to council tax without a referendum, mostly to protect taxpayers from excessive increases.

It is thought the average increase in England will not surpass last year’s total of 5.1%. There are some exemptions including Bradford which is hiking costs by 10%.

But Falkirk surpasses everyone and is the UK’s most extreme case.

Independent councillor Laura Murtagh
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Independent councillor Laura Murtagh

Independent councillor Laura Murtagh initiated the idea of the 15.6% increase which was eventually voted through by most of her colleagues.

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She stresses anything less than the increase she proposed would have resulted in services, including education provision, being slashed.

But it has come at a personal cost.

Ms Murtagh, who stresses she does not want to incite a further pile-on, tells Sky News she has contacted police after threats of violence and taunts online depicting beheadings.

She said: “It has made me not want to go out. It has made me not want to go to events.

“I am having a conversation with the police. They are nasty threats. There are people who have said you could do with a kicking or you could do with more than that.

“People are sharing memes where they are doing beheading memes or whatever.”

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Local leaders say their rates have been much lower than their neighbours for many years which is unsustainable as demand for services soars.

The leader of Falkirk Council, Cecil Meiklejohn, was asked by Sky News if she could justify the 15.6% rise.

She said: “It is quite a hike. We always knew council tax needed to go up.

“We know that we have to continue to deliver good quality services, and we can’t do that without increasing our revenue and the only way we have the opportunity to do that locally is by increasing council tax.”

She concluded: “We will work with people who are going to be impacted by the increase.”

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Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns says Nigel Farage’s row with Rupert Lowe was ‘clearly a big falling out’ – but insists it will ‘blow over’

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Reform UK's Andrea Jenkyns says Nigel Farage's row with Rupert Lowe was 'clearly a big falling out' - but insists it will 'blow over'

Reform UK’s most senior woman has told Sky News the Rupert Lowe row “doesn’t look great” and she doesn’t “want to see it in the news any more days”. 

Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who defected to Reform last year, accepted it was “clearly a big falling out” but suggested these spats do not always cut through to the public.

She insisted she was concentrating on winning as she looks to become the party’s first ever mayor in May.

In an interview with Sky News, Dame Andrea also spoke for the first time about her experience of domestic abuse, denying Reform has a “woman problem” but accepted “we need to start talking more about issues, what women are interested in”.

Having lost her seat as a Conservative in the 2024 election, Dame Andrea briefly quit politics only to return earlier this year as Reform’s newest recruit.

She is now standing as the party’s candidate to become the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor, in a race that psephologists think could be Reform’s best hope of turning itself from a party of protest into one that is governing.

That’s because Reform is on the march in Lincolnshire, which is a key battleground between the Conservatives and Reform in the local and mayoral elections in May.

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Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, took the Conservative seat of Boston and Skegness in the last election as Reform came second in a further two of the county’s eight constituencies.

Andrea Jenkyns spoke to Sky News' Beth Rigby
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Dame Andrea spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby

This farming country has long been part of the patchwork of Conservative England and it is in these heartlands that Reform hopes it can land a significant blow to its political rivals in the coming weeks.

“It’s a worry,” admits one Labour insider who doesn’t much relish the prospect of having to deal with a newly minted Reform party mayor should Dame Andrea win in May against Labour candidate Jason Stockwood, the Conservative Rob Waltham and independent Marianne Overton.

There is also the Lincolnshire council race, which Reform is targeting. All 70 seats are up for grabs and the Conservatives, which have a 38-seat majority, are defending 53 seats. The only way is up for Reform here, while the Conservatives, who have held this council for 10 of the past 13 elections, are bracing for a drubbing.

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The Conservatives make the point that they have a “strong local candidate who is born and bred in Lincolnshire, whereas Dame Andrea is from Yorkshire” when I ask them about the race.

“We are fighting hard, we have a proven track record of delivery in charge of local services whereas Reform aren’t tried and tested,” the Conservatives said.

“And if they’re anything like Reform nationally, who don’t turn up on important votes, then they won’t show up for people locally.”

Dame Andrea is still based in Yorkshire where she used to be an MP, as this is where her son attends school. But she rents a place in Lincolnshire and has vowed to move to the county should she win the mayoralty.

She also points out that she grew up in Lincolnshire and was a local councillor before moving to Yorkshire after her shock victory over Ed Balls in the 2015 general election.

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Andrea Jenkyns with farmers
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Dame Andrea is hoping to become Reform’s first mayor

‘Fed up’ farmers eyeing Reform

When we meet her on the road in Lincolnshire, she takes us to meet some farmers whose livelihoods are under intense pressure – be it over local flooding and flood defences or changes to inheritance tax and farming subsidies that are affecting their farms.

There is little love for Labour in the gathering of farmers, who in the main seem to be lapsed Conservative voters that are now eyeing Reform, as a number of them tell me how they are fed up with how the Environment Agency and local politicians are running their area.

“We’re fed up with all of them,” said one farmer.

“We just want some action. As farmers we know drainage is so important, we just want to get it sorted.”

They are also alarmed and anxious about the inheritance tax changes introduced by Labour and are pressing for carve-outs for small farms handed down from generation to generation amid fears they will have to sell up to pay the inheritance tax bills.

But the troubles at the top of Reform hadn’t gone unnoticed by this group. Unprompted, one of the farmers raised the row between the suspended Reform MP Rupert Lowe and the party leadership, telling Dame Andrea that while he “really likes Reform” he doesn’t much like what he’s seeing at the moment.

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Reform UK row explained

‘Spat looks worse because Reform is small’

The farmer said: “I don’t follow politics avidly. But I just look and say [Rupert Lowe] is full of common sense and I really like him and I don’t know what’s happened, but it looks from outside [he has been] chucked under the bus.

“And I’m like, am I getting second thoughts about Reform? I don’t know what’s gone on, but it concerns me about what’s going on with Reform.”

Dame Andrea tries to downplay it and says the “spat” looks worse because it’s a smaller party.

“To me it’s about the movement, the right policies, to carry on. What is the alternative? This will blow over and Reform will keep getting strong,” she said.

Can Jenkyns and Farage co-exist?

Dame Andrea would clearly like the infighting to stop, but it raises questions for me about how she will fit into this very male-dominated party, in which all four MPs are male, with Dame Andrea the only senior woman beyond the former Conservative minister Ann Widdicombe.

She is, like Nigel Farage, a disrupter – Dame Andrea was one of the first Tories to call for Theresa May and Rishi Sunak to stand down, and a conviction politician who fervently backed Boris Johnson and Brexit.

If she does win this mayoral race she will be a big personality in Reform alongside Farage, which leaves me wondering if they can co-exist in a party already at war.

Andrea Jenkyns
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Dame Andrea says she doesn’t think the party has a ‘woman problem’

Jenkyns was in an abusive relationship

Reform does struggle with female voters, with fewer women voting for the party against all age cohorts, young to old. Dame Andrea tells me she doesn’t think the party has a “woman problem”, but she does think it needs to talk about more issues that she thinks women are interested in, citing education, special educational needs and mental health.

When I raise the matter of violence against women and how the party has handled revelations that one of its own MPs was jailed in a youth detention centre as a teenager for assaulting his girlfriend, Dame Andrea reveals to me she has been in an abusive relationship.

“I know how it can break you. I know how you sort of start losing your identity. So I’ve been on that side,” she said.

“And I’ve also helped constituents to fight against this, so it matters, we need to do more in society because whether it’s men or women, one is too much in my view.”

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Out on the campaign trail, even in the Labour territory of Lincoln where Hamish Falconer is the local MP, Dame Andrea gets a warm welcome. She tells me she thinks she can win it: “I might be living in blind hope here. But I’ve got that feeling.”

This corner of England has become a test bed for Reform to see if it can turn from a party of protest into one that has a shot at governing in the form of a regional mayor.

If Reform can succeed in that – what might come next? It would be a remarkable comeback for Dame Andrea and a remarkable victory for Reform too.

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Wes Streeting admits he did not anticipate scrapping NHS England – and 9,000 will lose jobs

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Wes Streeting admits he did not anticipate scrapping NHS England - and 9,000 will lose jobs

Wes Streeting has admitted he did not anticipate scrapping NHS England when he became health secretary but said it is a “necessary step”.

Before Labour won last summer’s election, Mr Streeting said he had “absolutely no intention of wasting time with a big costly reorganisation” of the NHS.

However, hours after Sir Keir Starmer dropped the bombshell that NHS England, the administrative body that runs the national health service, will be abolished to slash red tape, the health secretary said his mind had been changed.

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He told Trevor Phillips on Sky News’ Politics Hub: “I didn’t anticipate coming in wanting to make this change to NHS England. It wasn’t on my list of priorities.

“I recognise that in order to achieve the change I want, this is a necessary step.”

He said his instincts were to not scrap the quango “unless it was necessary”.

“I’ve concluded that it is necessary because you can’t have a situation where you’ve got two head offices duplicating work, a man marking each other, sometimes working against each other,” he added.

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The government has not yet said how many jobs are expected to be lost

9,000 plus will lose jobs

Mr Streeting also confirmed thousands of people will lose their jobs, answering “yes” when asked if the move means more than 9,000 civil servants will be out the door – around half of the 19,000 people the health secretary said work for NHS England and the Department of Health and Social Care.

He acknowledged it “will be an anxious time for them…there’s no way of sugarcoating” it.

“But we will be treating people with care and respect and the fairness that they are owned through this process,” he said.

He said the Conservatives inherited the “shortest waiting times and the highest patient satisfaction in history” when they won the 2010 election, but said they “turned it on its head”.

He claimed the Labour government “is fixing it” but added: “We do have to put a foot down on the accelerator.”

The health secretary reiterated his previous comments that it would “be daft not to use spare capacity in the private sector” to alleviate pressure on the NHS.

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However, he denied getting rid of NHS England is about part privatisation of the health service.

“With Labour, it would always be a public service free at the points of use,” he said.

“There are lots of people who are now paying to go private, and it’s those who can’t afford it who are getting left behind. I want to end that two-tier system.”

Sir Keir said axing NHS England will bring management of the NHS “back into democratic control” as it returns to the Department of Health and Social Care 12 years after the Conservatives created it.

The prime minister said the result would end the duplication from two organisations doing the same job, freeing up staff to focus on patients and putting more resources on the frontline.

Watch the full interview on Politics Hub With Trevor Phillips at 7pm.

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