UK bills could rise – as Europe’s gas consumption falls by ‘unprecedented’ amount
Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?
It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.
If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.
For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.
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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.
But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.
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This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.
That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.
Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.
With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.
And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.
As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.
According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”
Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.
The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.
Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.
Southend Airport has been closed until further notice after a small plane crashed – as video footage emerged showing the aftermath of a huge fireball.
Images posted online showed large flames and a cloud of black smoke following the incident on Sunday afternoon.
Essex Police said it responded to “reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane” shortly before 4pm.
“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours,” the statement said.
“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”
Southend Airport said it would be “closed until further notice” due to the “serious incident”.
“We ask that any passengers due to travel (on Monday) via London Southend Airport contact their airline for information and advice,” it added.
A huge fireball near the airport. Pic: Ben G
Zeusch Aviation, based at Lelystad Airport in the Netherlands, confirmed its SUZ1 flight had been “involved in an accident” at the airport and its thoughts were with “everyone who has been affected”.
It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.
According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.
Pilots ‘waved’ to families watching planes
One man, who was at the airport with his wife and children, told Sky News the plane crashed within seconds of taking off.
John Johnson said the pilots “waved” at his family as they taxied the aircraft.
“We all waved [back] at them,” he continued. “They carried on taxiing to their take-off point and turned around.
“Then they throttled up the engines and passed by us. The aircraft took off and within a few seconds it had a steep bank angle to its left.”
The aircraft then “almost seemed to invert and unfortunately crashed,” he said. “There was a large fireball.”
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Smoke seen after small plane crashes
‘Airport was in lockdown’
Wren Stranix, 16, from Woodbridge in Suffolk, was in another aircraft waiting to take off for Newquay, Cornwall, with her family and boyfriend when the plane came down.
They watched from their aircraft as the emergency services arrived and were not able to leave their seats.
“The flight attendant didn’t know what was going on,” she told Sky News. “They said the plane had exploded and they didn’t know if it was safe or not. The airport was in lockdown.”
Plumes of black smoke. Pic: UKNIP
They were eventually allowed back in the terminal to wait before all flights were cancelled.
Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.
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A photo of the plane at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in September 2024. Pic: Pascal Weste
After the incident, EasyJet – one of just a few airlines that uses the airport – said all of its remaining flights to and from Southend had been “diverted to alternative airports or are no longer able to operate”.
The airline said it has contacted customers who were due to travel on Sunday. Anyone due to fly on Monday should check online for up-to-date information, it added.
Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.
The East of England Ambulance Service said four ambulances, four hazardous area response team vehicles and an air ambulance had been sent to the incident.
Fire engines at the airport
David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, asked people to keep away from the area and “allow the emergency services to do their work” in a post on social media.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was “monitoring the situation closely and receiving regular updates”.
Essex Police have set up a dedicated public portal and phone line where people can contact them about the crash at https://esxpol.uk/LIbaz and on 0800 0961011.
Chief Superintendent Morgan Cronin said: “In these very early stages it is vital we gather the information we need, and continue supporting the people of Essex.”
He added: “We are working closely with all at the scene, as well as the Air Accident Investigation Branch, to establish what has happened today and why.”
UK
Gregg Wallace: Half the allegations against MasterChef presenter substantiated, including one of unwanted physical contact
An investigation into Gregg Wallace’s “inappropriate behaviour” on MasterChef has found that more than half of the allegations against him have been substantiated, including one of “unwanted physical contact”.
MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK shared a summary of its report into historical allegations of misconduct against the 60-year-old presenter, carried out by independent law firm Lewis Silkin over seven months.
The report also said the number of sustained allegations made Wallace’s return to MasterChef “untenable”.
The investigation heard evidence from 78 witnesses, including 41 complainants.
There were 83 allegations against Wallace, and 45 of them were substantiated. All were related to MasterChef.
While the majority of the substantiated allegations related to inappropriate sexual language and humour, a smaller number of allegations of other inappropriate language and being in a state of undress were also substantiated.
One allegation of unwanted physical contact was substantiated.
Nearly all the allegations against Wallace were related to behaviour which is said to have occurred between 2005 and 2018, with just one substantiated allegation taking place post-2018.
Wallace and Anne-Marie Sterpini in 2014
Ahead of the publication of the summary, Wallace had said he had been “cleared of the most serious and sensational accusations” made against him.
Additionally, the report summary found that there were also 10 standalone allegations about other people between 2012 and 2018/2019, two of which were substantiated. Those people were not named in the summary.
The investigation found that complaints had previously been raised with the production company between 2005 and 2024.
Gregg Wallace on MasterChef. Pic: BBC/ Shine TV 2024
While the report flagged inadequate reporting procedures prior to 2016, when Endemol merged with Shine ahead of Banijay acquiring Endemol Shine in 2020, it said there were significant improvements to HR processes and training after 2016.
While the investigation said some formal action was taken by the BBC in 2017, it also noted the corporation held no information regarding concerns raised over Wallace centrally, resulting in issues being addressed as a first offence.
Sky News has tried to contact Gregg Wallace for contact today.
The dates for Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK have been announced, with the US president due to be welcomed by the King from 17 to 19 September.
Buckingham Palace also confirmed that President Trump and first lady Melania will be hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor Castle.
It was expected that the three-day state visit would take place in September after Mr Trump let slip earlier in April that he believed that was when his second “fest” was being planned for.
Windsor was also anticipated to be the location after the US president told reporters in the Oval Office that the letter from the King said Windsor would be the setting. Refurbishment works at Buckingham Palace also meant that Windsor was used last week for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit.
This will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, an unprecedented gesture towards an American leader, having previously been invited to Buckingham Palace in 2019.
Donald Trump and Melania Trump posing with Charles and Camilla in 2019. Pic: Reuters
He has also been to Windsor Castle before, in 2018, but despite the considerable military pageantry of the day, and some confusion around inspecting the guard, it was simply for tea with Queen Elizabeth II.
Further details of what will happen during the three-day visit in September will be announced in due course.
On Friday, Sky News revealed it is now unlikely that the US president will address parliament, usually an honour given to visiting heads of state as part of their visit. Some MPs had raised significant concerns about him being given the privilege.
But the House of Commons will not be sitting at the time of Mr Trump’s visit as it will rise for party conference season on the 16 September, meaning the president will not be able to speak in parliament as President Macron did during his state visit this week. However, the House of Lords will be sitting.
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Labour MP: ‘Trump isn’t welcome here’
In February this year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer presented the US president with the letter from the King inviting him to visit during a meeting at the White House.
After reading it, Mr Trump said it was a “great, great honour”, adding “and that says at Windsor – that’s really something”.
In February, Sir Keir Starmer revealed a letter from the King inviting Donald Trump to the UK. Pic: Reuters
In the letter, the King suggested they might meet at Balmoral or Dumfries House in Scotland first before the much grander state visit. However, it is understood that, although all options were explored, complexities in both the King and Mr Trump’s diaries meant it wasn’t possible.
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This week, it emerged that Police Scotland are planning for a summer visit from the US president, which is likely to see him visit one or both of his golf clubs in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire, and require substantial policing resources and probably units to be called in from elsewhere in the UK.
Precedent for second-term US presidents, who have already made a state visit, is usually tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.
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