Connect with us

Published

on

Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

Money latest: MPs to question Shein and Temu

All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

More on Energy

Read more
Russian gas supply to European Union via Ukraine halted
Energy bills become more expensive

This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

USE THIS Chart 1 So... What changed?

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

USE THIS chart 2 Europe is deindustrialising fast

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

Chart 3 European gas pipelines from Russia USE THIS

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

Chart 4 USE THIS storage is low too

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

Continue Reading

UK

MI5 boss says he will ‘never back off’ from China threat – as Beijing plot disrupted in last week

Published

on

By

MI5 boss says he will 'never back off' from China threat - as Beijing plot disrupted in last week

The head of MI5 says he will “never back off” from confronting threats from China as he revealed his officers disrupted a case linked to Beijing in just the past week.

More broadly, Sir Ken McCallum said the number of people in the UK under investigation for “state threat activity” – also including from Russia and Iran – has jumped by 35% in the past year compared with the previous 12 months.

He admitted he felt frustration at the collapse last month of a trial against two British men accused of spying for China, but he stressed that the Security Service had still successfully derailed the alleged espionage operation.

With pressure mounting on Sir Keir Starmer over why the high-profile trial foundered, the director general of MI5 – choosing his words carefully given the controversy – confirmed that “Chinese state actors” pose a threat to UK national security “every day”.

Politics latest: Senior MPs launch ‘formal inquiry’ into China spy case collapse

More broadly, he warned that the threat from states – also including Russia and Iran – are escalating and becoming as ugly as terrorism.

He used an annual speech at MI5’s headquarters in London to say:

More on China

• The wider threat from nation states is escalating and becoming as ugly as terrorism

• Attempts by states – principally China, Russia and Iran – to carry out operations involving violence, sabotage, arson or surveillance are “routinely” being uncovered

• MI5 has tracked more than 20 “potentially lethal” plots backed by Iran in the past year

• Russia is hatching a “steady stream” of surveillance plots with “hostile intent”, while MI5 officers take it as a working assumption that Russian trolls will attempt to exploit any particular “fissures” in UK society using online posts, though these efforts are largely unsuccessful

• On terrorism, MI5 and the police have disrupted 19 late-stage attack plots since 2020 and have intervened in many hundreds of developing threats

• There is growing concern about children becoming involved in terrorism, with one in five of the 232 terrorism arrests last year involving minors under 17

“MI5 is contending with more volume and more variety of threat from terrorists and state actors than I’ve ever seen,” Sir Ken said.

Declaring a “new era”, the MI5 boss warned of “fast-rising” state threats coupled with a “near record” number of terrorism investigations.

He said this was forcing the biggest shift in MI5’s mission since the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States.

China is a particular challenge as the Starmer government seeks to bolster economic ties with Beijing, while also wary of the security threat posed by Chinese spies.

“The UK-China relationship is by its nature complex, but MI5’s role is not,” Sir Ken said.

“We detect and deal, robustly, with activity threatening UK national security.”

These threats range from cyber espionage; attempts to steal secrets from universities such as by cultivating academics; or efforts to target parliament and other parts of public life.

“MI5 will keep doing what the public would expect of us, preventing, detecting and disrupting activity of national security concern,” said the MI5 chief.

“Our track record is strong. We’ve intervened operationally again just in the last week and we will keep doing so.”

The spy boss continued: “I am MI5 born and bred. I will never back off from confronting threats to the UK wherever they come.”

The speech was delivered amid a growing row around a decision by Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to drop the espionage trial of Christopher Cash, a former parliamentary researcher to two prominent Conservative MPs, and Christopher Berry, a teacher.

Both have denied any wrongdoing.

Read more: Three questions about spy case that need answering

Prosecutors said the government had not provided evidence that China represented a threat to national security, prompting allegations by the Conservatives that the prime minister’s team had interfered with the case to protect the UK’s trading ties with China.

Attempting to push back, ministers on Wednesday released written evidence by Matthew Collins, the deputy national security adviser, that was given to the CPS. It spelt out the threat posed by China and his assessment of the allegations against the two individuals.

Given the political storm, the MI5 director general was careful when responding to questions on the furore.

But he chose to voice his support for Mr Collins who he has worked with, describing him as a “man of high integrity and a professional of considerable quality”.

Sir Ken was asked by journalists if he had been frustrated at the failure to prosecute.

“Of course I am frustrated when opportunities to prosecute national security threatening activity are not followed through for whatever reason,” he said, though he noted not all cases that involve MI5 lead to prosecution.

“I would remind you all that in the particular case… the activity was disrupted.”

On whether he regarded China to be a threat, the MI5 chief said: “Do Chinese state actors present a UK national security threat? And the answer is of course yes they do every day.”

But he added that UK wider bilateral foreign policy on China is a matter for the government.

Continue Reading

UK

Widow who helped husband ‘die with dignity’ won’t face charges

Published

on

By

Widow who helped husband 'die with dignity' won't face charges

A woman who accompanied her husband as he took his own life at the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland has been told by police she will not face criminal charges.

Louise Shackleton had been under investigation for assisted suicide since handing herself in to police after her husband Anthony’s death in December.

The 59-year-old had been battling motor neurone disease for years and Mrs Shackleton said they had discussed at length his decision to end his life.

Louise Shackleton and her husband Anthony
Image:
Louise Shackleton and her husband Anthony

In April, she told Sky News she accepted she had committed a crime but had no regrets over supporting her husband.

But North Yorkshire Police has now confirmed she will face no action.

In a statement the force said: “This has clearly been a complex and sensitive investigation which has required detailed examination by the Crown Prosecution Service.

“Whilst they concluded the evidential test had been met regarding assisted suicide, it was decided not to be in the public interest to prosecute.

“Our thoughts remain with Mr Shackleton’s family.”

‘We’re treated like criminals’

Mrs Shackleton told Sky News she was not surprised by the decision but was critical of the time it had taken.

“In reality, I didn’t commit a crime,” she said.

“The reality is I enabled my husband to get to a place he wanted to be, and to do what he wanted to do.

“I knew nothing would come of it because there was no coercion.

“I could have stopped him, but why would I do that? Why would I stop his will? He died like he lived, with dignity.

“The regret I have is other people are going to have to make this journey and be left in limbo like I’ve been left in.

“People shouldn’t have to go through this.

“In the darkest days of our lives, we’re treated like criminals and that is just unfair.”

Anthony left a final letter for his wife on his laptop
Image:
Anthony left a final letter for his wife on his laptop

Mrs Shackleton said she was sad her husband could not choose to die surrounded by his family in his own home.

She added: “It makes me dreadfully sad, and my heart aches that at least one person a week, just from England, is having to make that journey and their loved ones, in the deepest darkest part of their lives, are going to have to go through a police investigation.”

It has been legal to help someone die in Switzerland since 1942 – provided the motive is not “selfish”.

The country’s Dignitas group has become well-known as it allows non-Swiss people to use its clinics.

Will UK legalise assisted dying?

Mrs Shackleton has become a vocal supporter of legislation going through parliament to legalise assisted dying.

It would permit a person who is terminally ill and with less than six months to live to legally end their life.

The law in the UK currently prohibits people from assisting in the suicide of others, but prosecutions are rare.

Opponents to the assisted dying bill have raised concerns about the safety of vulnerable people and the risk of coercion and a change in attitudes toward the elderly, seriously ill and disabled.

Read more:
What does assisted dying look like?

Assisted dying poses ‘substantial task’ for NHS

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

For and against assisted dying

Mrs Shackleton chose to speak out publicly to honour a promise made to her husband to push for people to have choice, and believes he would be proud of her campaigning.

“People should have the right to a choice,” she said.

“I know people will say they don’t agree with that, that’s absolutely fine, I respect that, but because you don’t want something doesn’t mean you should stop someone else doing it.”

A final farewell

During the police investigation, she avoided opening her husband’s laptop in case it would have been needed as evidence. Since the investigation has been closed, she has opened that laptop and found the last letter her husband wrote to her.

“For nearly 10 months I’d been denied that letter, a letter that could have helped a lot,” she said.

“And I was denied it, and that’s wrong.”

Continue Reading

UK

Be bold with tax hikes or risk ‘groundhog day’, chancellor told as limited growth recorded

Published

on

By

Be bold with tax hikes or risk 'groundhog day', chancellor told as limited growth recorded

Rachel Reeves faces the prospect of another “groundhog day” unless next month’s budget goes further than plugging an estimated £22bn black hole in the public finances, according to a respected thinktank.

It comes as latest official figures showed the UK economy grew 0.3% in the three months to August, limited growth, despite the Treasury saying it is the fastest growth in the G7.

Money latest: Make your baby a millionaire

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said there was a “strong case” for the chancellor to substantially increase the £10bn headroom she has previously given herself against her own debt rules, or risk further repeats of needing to restore the buffer in the years ahead.

It said Ms Reeves could bring the cost of servicing government debt down through ending constant chatter over the limited breathing space she has previously given herself, in uncertain times for the global economy.

The chancellor herself used an interview with Sky News this week to admit tax rises were being considered, and appeared to concede she was trapped in a “doom loom” of annual increases.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

What is the chancellor facing?

Speculation over the likely contents of the budget has been rife for months and intensified after U-turns by the government on planned welfare reforms and on winter fuel payments.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s determination on the size of the black hole facing Ms Reeves could come in well above or below the IFS estimate of £22bn, which includes the restoration of the £10bn headroom but not the cost of any possible policy announcements such as the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.

Economists broadly agree tax rises are inevitable, as borrowing more would be prohibitive given the bond market’s concerns about the UK’s fiscal position.

Long-term borrowing costs have recently stood at levels not seen since the last century.

What are her tax options?

While there has been talk of new levies on bank profits and the wealthy, to name but a few rumours, the IFS analysis suggests the best way to raise the bulk of sufficient funds is by hiking income tax, rather than making the tax system even more complicated.

Earlier this week, it suggested reforms, such as to property taxes, could raise tens of billions of pounds.

But any move on income tax would mean breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to target the three main sources of revenue from income, employee national insurance contributions and VAT.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?

She is particularly unlikely to raise VAT, as it would risk fanning the flames of inflation, already expected by the International Monetary Fund to run at the highest rate across the G7 this year and next.

Business argues it should be spared.

The chancellor’s first budget, which raised taxes by £40bn, has been blamed by the sector for raising costs in the economy since April via higher minimum pay and employer national insurance contributions.

They say the measures have dragged on employment, investment, and growth.

Read more:
Reeves plots budget boost to entrepreneur tax incentives
Four big themes as IMF takes aim at UK growth and inflation

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The big issues facing the UK economy

‘A situation of her own making’

Analysis by Barclays, revealed within the IFS’s Green Budget, suggested inflation was on course to return to target by the middle of next year but that the UK’s jobless rate could top 5% from its current 4.8% level.

Ms Reeves, who has blamed the challenges she faces on past austerity, Brexit and a continuing drag from the mini-budget of the Liz Truss government in 2022, was urged by the IFS to not harm growth through budget measures.

IFS director Helen Miller said: “Last autumn, the chancellor confidently pronounced she wouldn’t be coming back with more tax rises; she almost certainly will.

“For Rachel Reeves, the budget will feel like groundhog day. This is, to a large extent, a situation of her own making.

“When choosing to operate her fiscal rules with such teeny tiny headroom, Ms Reeves would have known that run-of-the-mill forecast changes could easily blow her off course.”

Ms Miller said there was a “strong case for the chancellor to build more headroom against her fiscal rules”, adding: “Persistent uncertainty is damaging to the economic outlook.”

‘No return to austerity’

A Treasury spokesperson responded: “We won’t comment on speculation. The chancellor’s non-negotiable fiscal rules provide the stability needed to help to keep interest rates low while also prioritising investment to support long-term growth.

“We were the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but for too many people our economy feels stuck. They are working day in, day out without getting ahead.

“That needs to change, and that is why the chancellor will continue to relentlessly cut red tape, reform outdated planning rules, and invest in public infrastructure to boost growth – not return to austerity or decline.”

The budget is scheduled for 26 November.

Continue Reading

Trending