So can you stop people smugglers by lumbering them with sanctions? That is the government’s latest idea, and it is bold and innovative.
It will certainly get attention, even if that doesn’t mean it will work. But it is another effort by this government to differentiate itself from the leaders who came before.
In a nutshell, the idea is to cut the financing to what the Foreign Office refers to as “organised immigration networks” and is intended to deter “smugglers from profiting off the trafficking of innocent people”.
So far, so convincing. The rhetoric is good. The reality may be more difficult.
For one thing, and we await actual details of what’s going to be done, this raises an enormous question of how this can be accomplished.
Image: A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover. Pic: PA
Some of the people smugglers bringing people across the Channel are based in Britain, but most aren’t. And as a general rule, they’re quite hard to track down.
He had absolutely no fear of being caught, and no sense that he was even breaking the law.
Image: The smuggling gang, who we met in October 2023, did not want to reveal their faces
Instead, Karwan considered that he was doing a duty to Kurds, allowing them to escape from the hardship of their nation to a more prosperous life in other countries, including Britain. Or, at least, that’s what he said.
How exactly Britain could impose sanctions on him is hard to imagine.
These people are well aware that they’re breaking the law. You can hardly spend your time dodging French police and claim to be innocent.
Guns are becoming more commonplace in migrant camps. The spectre of sanctions won’t stop them.
Image: Life jackets allegedly belonging to a gang of people smugglers which were seized by police in November
So the question is whether the British government can track down the people at the very top of these organisations and find a way of levying financial sanctions that bite.
Presumably, if these people were in Britain, they’d be arrested, with the prospect of their assets being frozen.
So imposing sanctions will probably involve working alongside European countries, coordinating action and sharing information. A process that has become more complicated since Brexit.
Sanctions have previously worked well when targeted towards high-profile people and organisations with a clear track record.
The oligarchs who have propped up Vladimir Putin’s regime, for instance, or companies trying to procure armaments for hostile states. All have been targeted by a coalition of nations.
But this idea is novel – unilateral for a start, even if, one assumes, the French, Germans, Belgians and others have been warned in advance.
It’s also not quite clear how it will work – organised crime is famously flexible and if you successfully sanction one person, then someone else is likely to take over.
As for levying sanctions on the smuggling leaders in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Albania and beyond – well, good luck.
Image: An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel. Pic: Reuters
What it does is to draw that distinction between the recent past, when the Rwanda plan was the main ambition, and Keir Starmer’s reliance on focusing on criminality and working together with partners.
And one other note. For years, the government has talked about people crossing the Channel as illegal migrants, even though there is a dispute between UK and international law about whether these people are actually breaking the law.
Now the Foreign Office is using the term “irregular migration”. Is this a change of tone, or just a stylistic whim? Just as with the sanctions, we will wait and see.
Today, Sir Keir Starmer will deliver on his pledge to recognise a Palestinian state – after setting out a series of conditions in July which there was little prospect Israel could meet, including agreeing a ceasefire with Hamas.
The prime minister will say it recognises the “inalienable right” of the Palestinian people and what he feels is a moral responsibility to keep a two-state solution alive, amid the devastation of the war and concern about settlement expansion in the West Bank.
This will be formally put forward by the British government at a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, after a diplomatic push led by Emmanuel Macron. Canada and Australia are also expected to recognise it, although may call for Hamas to disarm.
But Labour has always said it’s a move they would make as part of a peace process, which looks further away than ever.
What does it mean?
The move has been heavily criticised and leaves a number of questions not only about what it will achieve – but about whether it will have the opposite effect on the conflict.
David Lammy as foreign secretary conceded when the pledge was announced that “it will not change the position on the ground” which can only come through negotiations.
After all, 147 of the 193 member states of the United Nations recognise it already. Palestine has permanent observer status at the UN – speaking rights, but not voting rights – where it’s represented by the Palestinian Authority. Any move to full status would have to be agreed by the Security Council where the US has a veto.
Sir Keir has made clear he doesn’t accept Hamas – which he calls a “brutal terrorist organisation” – as a government in Gaza. The borders of such a state, wrangled over for decades during multiple rounds of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, are also not agreed.
Recognition is opposed by the Trump administration, as the US president made clear in London last week. US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said it would “embolden Hamas” and be symbolic only.
In Britain there is cynicism too. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has accused the prime minister of a “desperate and insincere attempt to placate his backbenchers”. He heads to the party’s conference in Liverpool next week with a further slump in his approval ratings to -42%, around where Rishi Sunak’s was after his D-Day blunder.
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1:28
Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?
Other Labour MPs oppose the recognition move. The Labour Friends of Israel group has said: “It is important to recognise that Israel is not the only party to this conflict… Hamas could end this conflict tomorrow by releasing the hostages and laying down its arms.”
The move is also opposed by the families of the hostages in Gaza, of which 20 are believed to be alive – for not imposing their release as a condition on Hamas.
Ilay David, the brother of Evyatar David, who recently appeared emaciated in a Hamas video, said: “We want to meet with Starmer but he refuses to meet with us… Giving this recognition is like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields’. This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”
Sir Ephraim Mirvis, the UK’s Chief Rabbi has said the “unconditional” recognition of the state “is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future”.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer welcomed Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, to 10 Downing Street earlier this month
What happens next?
Sir Keir met 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in London this month and they agreed Hamas should not be involved in the governance of Gaza.
Efforts to set up a transitional government have been discussed between the US and Gulf states. But Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, said last week there was nothing “ready for signature”.
The UK government is expected to announce further sanctions on Hamas figures this week. But the Israeli government has already responded with fury to the prospect of recognition and it’s reported that retaliation could include further annexations in the West Bank.
The UK government sees this as an important diplomatic move with allies, when nothing else is moving the dial. But it can only be made once, and even supporters in government acknowledge that on the ground in Gaza it won’t immediately change very much.
Image: One of three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets in images shared by Sweden’s armed forces. Pic: Swedish Armed Forces
The three incursions into NATO airspace fuelled concerns about the potential expansion of Russia‘s three-year war in Ukraine and have been seen as an attempt by Moscow to test the military alliance’s response.
The incident over Poland prompted its prime minister, Donald Tusk, to warn that his country was the closest to “open conflict” it had been since the Second World War, while the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover.
Two RAF Typhoons, supported by an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling plane, took off from RAF Coningsby, in Lincolnshire, on Friday night to defend Poland’s skies before returning safely early on Saturday morning.
Image: A Gerbera drone landed in a field in the Olesno region of Poland
Defence Secretary John Healey said the mission sends a clear signal that “NATO airspace will be defended”.
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“I’m proud of the outstanding British pilots and air crew who took part in this successful operation to defend our allies from reckless Russian aggression.”
He said the mission was “especially poignant” coming as the UK marks the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Britain – when Polish pilots came to the aid of the UK – this weekend.
The head of the RAF, Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, said: “This sortie marks the RAF’s first operational mission on Eastern Sentry, reinforcing the UK’s steadfast commitment to NATO and its allies.
“We remain agile, integrated, and ready to project airpower at range.”
The prime minister had called on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to take substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza“, agree to a ceasefire, commit to a long-term sustainable peace, allow the UN to restart the supply of aid, and not annex the West Bank.
The Israeli foreign ministry furiously rejected his statement, with Mr Netanyahu claiming that “Starmer rewards Hamas‘s monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims”.
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1:28
Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?
Ilay David, brother of Hamas hostage Evyatar David, who was seen emaciated in a video last month, said giving recognition was “like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK, you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields.’
“This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”
There has been no ceasefire, and the situation in Gaza has deteriorated, with a declaration of a famine in Gaza City and the expansion of Israeli military operations.
Israel has launched a major ground offensive to seize all of Gaza City and destroy Hamas in an operation which has prompted widespread condemnation, with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “utterly reckless and appalling”.
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What changed in UK’s Gaza policy?
Earlier this month, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Israel said the claim was “distorted and false”.
The UK will join 147 of the 193 members of the UN who recognise Palestine ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday.
Other nations, including France, Australia and Canada, have said they plan to take the same step at the UN gathering as part of a broad international effort to put pressure on Israel.
During a joint news conference with the prime minister at Chequers on Thursday, Donald Trump said he disagreed with recognition, and US politicians have urged the UK and other allies to reverse their stance.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is expected to deliver the announcement on Sunday. Pic: PA
Sky News understands that Israel is considering options in response to the UK’s decision, but the strength of that reaction is still under consideration.
Family members of some of the 48 hostages still in captivity, after Hamas and other militant groups stormed into Israel on 7 October 2023, have written an open letter to Sir Keir, condemning the move.
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2:38
Israel ramps up attacks on Gaza City
“Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal,” they said.
“We write to you with a simple plea – do not take this step until our loved ones are home and in our arms.”
The UK government is understood to be looking at further sanctions on Hamas, and has demanded the group release all hostages, agree to an immediate ceasefire, accept it will have no role in governing Gaza, and commit to disarmament.