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How worried should Rachel Reeves be about the fact that the interest rates on government bonds have leapt to the highest level in more than a quarter of a century?

More to the point, how worried should the rest of us be about it?

After all, the interest rate on 30-year government bonds (gilts, as they are known) hit 5.37% today—the highest level since 1998. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year government bond is also up to the highest level since 2008.

Higher government borrowing rates mean, rather obviously, that the cost of all that investment Keir Starmer has promised in the coming years will go up. And since these rates reflect longer-term expectations for borrowing costs, in practice it means everything else in this economy will gradually get more expensive.

Money blog: Billionaire Premier League owner ‘thinking of leaving UK’ after budget

There are short-term and long-term consequences to all of this. In the short run, it means it will be harder for Ms Reeves to meet those fiscal rules she set herself. Back at the budget, she left herself a (in fiscal terms) paper-thin margin of £9.9bn not to overshoot on borrowing vs her new rules.

According to Capital Economics, based on recent market moves, that margin might now have been eroded down to around £1bn.

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And, given that’s before the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has even decided on changes to its forecasts, it’s now touch and go as to whether Ms Reeves will meet her fiscal rules. As my colleague Sam Coates reported this week, the upshot is the Treasury is poised to pare back its spending plans in the coming years – a depressing prospect given the chancellor only just set them. But that won’t be clear until the OBR’s updated forecasts are published in March.

However, fiscal rules and political embarrassments are one thing – the bigger picture is another. And that bigger picture is that the UK is being charged higher interest rates by international investors to compensate them for their concerns about our economic future – about rising debt levels, about the threat of higher inflation and about fears of sub-par growth in the years to come.

How does this compare to the Liz Truss mini-budget?

But perhaps the biggest question of all is whether, what with long-term bond yields higher now (over 5.2%) than the highs they hit in October 2022, after the infamous mini-budget (4.8%), does that mean the economy is in even more of a crisis than it was under Liz Truss?

The short answer is no. This is nothing like the post mini-budget aftermath. Investors are concerned about UK debt levels – yes. They are repricing our debt accordingly. There was even a moment for a few days after the budget last autumn when the yields on UK bonds were behaving in an erratic, worrying way, rising more than most of our counterparts.

But – and this is the critical bit – we saw nothing like the levels of panic and concern in markets that we saw after the mini-budget. But don’t just take it from me. Consider two data-based metrics that are pretty useful in this case.

The first is to consider the fact that back in October 2022 it wasn’t just that the interest rates on government bonds were rising. It was that the pound was plummeting at the same time. That’s a toxic cocktail – a signal that investors are simply pulling their money out of the country. This time around, the pound is pretty steady, and is far stronger than it was in late 2022, when it hit the lowest level (against a basket of currencies) in modern history.

Is this just a UK problem?

The second test is to ask a question: is the UK an outlier? Are investors looking at this country and treating it differently to other countries?

And here, the answer is again somewhat reassuring for Ms Reeves. While it’s certainly true that UK government bond yields are up sharply in recent weeks, precisely the same thing is true of US government bond yields. Even German yields are up in recent weeks – albeit not as high as the US or UK.

In other words, the movements in bond yields don’t appear to be UK-specific. They’re part of a bigger movement across assets worldwide as investors face up to the new future – with governments (including the UK and the US under Donald Trump) willing to borrow more and spend more in the future. As I say, that’s somewhat reassuring for Ms Reeves, but I’m not sure it’s entirely reassuring for the rest of us.

One way of looking at this is by measuring how much the UK’s bond yields deviated from those American and German cousin rates in recent months. And while there was a point, a few days after Ms Reeves’ Halloween budget, when UK bond yields were more of an outlier than they historically have been after fiscal events, in the following weeks the UK stopped being much of an outlier. Yes, it was being charged more by investors, but then given the budget involved large spending and borrowing increases, that’s hardly surprising.

Now compare that with what happened after the mini-budget, when the UK’s bond yields deviated from their counterparts in the US and Germany more than after any other fiscal event in modern history – a terrifying rise which only ended after Kwasi Kwarteng stood down. Only when Ms Truss resigned were they back in what you might consider “normal” territory.

Now, it’s hard to compare different historical moments. The mini-budget was happening at a tense moment in financial markets, with the Bank of England poised to reverse its quantitative easing. Not all of the roller coaster can be attributed to Ms Truss. Even so, comparing that period to today is night and day.

Investors are not exactly delighted with the UK’s economic prospects right now. They’re letting this be known via financial markets. But they’re certainly not horrified in the way they were after the mini-budget of 2022.

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

Inflation fell more than expected and for the second month in a row, official figures show.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and 3% in January, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

It means prices are rising at the slowest pace since December and closest to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

 

The rate is also lower than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who anticipated inflation of 2.7%.

But the drop is likely to be short-lived as a raft of bill rises kicked in at the start of April.

Energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month.

Why did inflation fall?

More on Inflation

It was a fall in fuel costs, thanks to lower oil prices that led to the surprise drop, combined with the unchanged food price rise.

The price of games, toys and hobbies, as well as data processing equipment, all fell.

These drops counteracted a “strong” rise in the price of clothes, the ONS said.

The late timing of Easter also meant comparing March 2024 – as the ONS does with its annual inflation rise figure – with March 2025 isn’t comparing like with like.

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‘Likely’ British Steel will be nationalised, says business secretary

Easter and the associated school break bring things like higher airfares and hotel costs, something that was not seen last month as the feast takes place in April this year.

What does this mean for interest rates?

All measures of inflation fell, in a boost to the Bank of England as they mull interest rate cuts.

A key way of assessing price rises, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items like fuel and food, dropped to 3.4%.

It’s closely watched by the rate setters at the Bank of England, who meet next month and are widely expected to make borrowing less expensive by bringing interest rates down to 4.25%.

Another important measure – services inflation – dropped to 4.7% from 5% in February. As a predominantly services-based economy, a drop in that rate is good news for central bankers and households.

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Could Trump’s tariff be positive?

Inflation data, combined with the fact job vacancies are at pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021, has meant traders are now expecting four interest rate cuts this year, which would bring the base interest rate to 3.5% by December.

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‘Likely’ British Steel will be nationalised, says business secretary Jonathan Reynolds

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'Likely' British Steel will be nationalised, says business secretary Jonathan Reynolds

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said it is “likely” that British Steel will be nationalised.

However he also stressed the importance of finding a private sector partner for the business because the scale of capital required for steel transformation was “very significant, even with government support”.

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It comes after he appeared to row back on his claim that he would not bring a Chinese company into the steel sector again after ministers had to urgently step in to save the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe.

Mr Reynolds, speaking to reporters in the Lincolnshire town after raw materials arrived to keep the site running, said that nationalisation was the “likely option at this stage”.

He added: “What we are now going to do, having secured both control of the site and the supply of raw materials, so the blast furnaces won’t close in a matter of days, is work on the future.

“We’ve got the ownership question, which is pressing.

“I was clear when I gave the speech in parliament – we know there is a limited lifespan of the blast furnaces, and we know that what we need for the future is a private sector partner to come in and work with us on that transformation and co-fund that transformation.”

The government passed emergency legislation on Saturday to take over British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant, the last in the UK capable of producing virgin steel, after talks with its Chinese owners, Jingye, broke down.

The company recently cancelled orders for supplies of the raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running, sparking a race against time to keep it operational.

While those materials have been secured, questions remain about the long-term future of British Steel and whether it will be fully nationalised or the private sector will get involved.

Reynolds rows back

Mr Reynolds earlier said he would look at Chinese firms “in a different way” following the row but did not rule out their involvement completely.

He previously told Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, that he would not “personally bring a Chinese company into our steel sector” again, describing steel as a “sensitive area” in the UK.

However, industry minister Sarah Jones took a different position on Tuesday morning, telling Sky News she is “not ruling out” the possibility of another Chinese partner.

She said having a pragmatic relationship with Beijing, the world’s second-biggest economy, is still important and stringent tests would apply “to a Chinese company as they would to any other company”.

Asked for clarity on his position during a visit to the port of Immingham, where materials from two ships were being unloaded and transported to the plant, Mr Reynolds said: “I think we’ve got to recognise that steel is a sensitive sector.

Explainer: Why has the government rescued British Steel?

“A lot of the issues in the global economy with steel come from production and dumping of steel products… so I think you would look at a Chinese firm in a different way.

“But I’m really keen to stress the action we’ve taken here was to step in because it was one specific company that I thought wasn’t acting in the UK’s national interest, and we had to take the action we did.”

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China relationship ‘really important’

The materials that arrived on Tuesday, including coking coal and iron, are enough to keep the furnaces running for weeks, the Department for Business and Trade said.

They are needed because if the furnaces cool down too much, the molten iron solidifies and blocks the furnaces, making it extremely difficult and expensive to restart them.

Switching off furnaces is a costly nightmare the govt wants to avoid

There’s no switch that easily turns a blast furnace on and off.

Temperatures inside can approach 2,000C and to protect the structure the interior is lined with ceramic insulation.

But the ceramic bricks expand and contract depending on the temperature, and any change needs to be done carefully over several weeks to stop them cracking.

Molten material inside the furnace also needs to be drained by drilling a hole through the wall of the furnace.

It’s a dangerous and expensive process, normally only ever done when there’s a major planned refurbishment.

That’s why the government wants to keep the furnaces at Scunthorpe burning.

The problem is, supplies for the furnaces are running low.

They need pellets of iron ore – the main raw material for making steel.

And they also need a processed form of coal called coke – the fuel that provides both the heat and the chemical reaction to purify the iron so it’s ready to make strong steel alloy.

Without a fresh supply of both the furnaces may have to be turned off in just a fortnight. And that would be a complex, costly nightmare the government wants to avoid.

‘Chinese ownership truly dreadful’

Opposition politicians have accused China of sabotage to increase reliance on its steel products, and want the country to be prevented from future dealings not only with steel but any UK national infrastructure.

Veteran Tory MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith said the government needs to define which industries are “strategic” – and prevent China from being allowed to invest in such sectors.

Liberal Democrats foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller said reverting to Chinese ownership would be like finding “your house ransacked and then leaving your doors unlocked”.

Raw materials for Scunthorpe steel plant arrive at port
Image:
Raw materials for the Scunthorpe steel plant


Coking coal is unloaded at Immingham Port, northern England, on April 15, 2025 as raw materials that had been waiting in the dock are transported to British Steel's steelworks site after payment was settled. DARREN STAPLES/Pool via REUTERS
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Coking coal is unloaded at Immingham Port. Pic: Reuters

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage took the same position, saying the thought the government “could even contemplate another Chinese owner of British steel is truly dreadful”, and that he would not have China “in our nuclear program, anywhere near our telecoms or anything else”.

“They are not our friends,” he added.

Number 10 said on Monday that it was not aware of any “sabotage” at the plant and there is no block on Chinese companies.

The Chinese embassy has urged the British government not to “politicise” the situation by “linking it to security issues”, saying it is “an objective fact that British steel companies have generally encountered difficulties in recent years”.

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Jingye reported losses of around £700k a day at Scunthorpe, which will now come at a cost to the taxpayer.

During Tuesday morning’s interview round, Ms Jones said the government had offered Jingye money in return for investment and “we think that there is a model there that we could replicate with another private sector company”.

But she said there “isn’t another private sector company there waiting in the wings” currently, and that it may be a “national solution” that is needed.

She said “all of the options” were expensive but that it would have cost more to the taxpayer to allow the site to shut.

A YouGov poll shows the majority of the public (61%) support the government’s decision to nationalise British Steel.

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Playtech to name former DAZN exec Gleasure as next chairman

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Playtech to name former DAZN exec Gleasure as next chairman

A former executive at DAZN, the sports streaming platform, is to be appointed this week as the next chairman of Playtech, the London-listed gambling technology group.

Sky News has learnt that Playtech will announce on Wednesday that John Gleasure, who was also a co-founder of the digital sports media group Perform, is to succeed Brian Mattingley in the role.

In accepting the Playtech chairmanship, Mr Gleasure will inherit a position which has repeatedly been at the centre of fractious corporate governance challenges.

Mr Mattingley, who has held the role since 2021, has overseen a frenetic period of corporate activity while also finding himself in the eye of a series of storms with shareholders over boardroom pay.

The most recent of those came in December when close to a third of investors rebelled over a €100m bonus plan for Mor Weizer, the company’s chief executive, along with other senior executives.

Shareholders give Mr Mattingley credit, however, for helping to navigate the company through a challenging period in the gambling industry, in particular his role last year in securing the sale of Snaitech, its Italian consumer gambling arm, for €2.3bn.

That deal, which received regulatory approval last week, represented a near-threefold return on Playtech’s initial investment and will trigger a special dividend worth up to €1.8bn (£1.5bn), to be paid in June.

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The sale of Snaitech will transform Playtech into a pure-play business-to-business operation.

Many analysts believe the remaining company will rapidly become a takeover target.

A source close to Playtech pointed out that shares in the company had risen nearly 60% during Mr Mattingley’s tenure.

Mr Gleasure, who will succeed Mr Mattingley as chairman after Playtech’s annual meeting next month, has also held roles at Sky Sports, which shares a parent company with Sky News, Hutchison 3G and Sony Pictures.

He continues to sit on the board of DAZN Group and is executive chairman of The Sporting News, a digital publisher in which Playtech acquired a minority interest in 2023.

Egon Zehnder International, the boardroom headhunter, has been overseeing the search for Mr Mattingley’s successor.

A Playtech spokesperson declined to comment on Tuesday.

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