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The UK may have reached peak obesity and rates could start falling rapidly later this year, Sky News has been told.

Data collected by one of the biggest online sellers of weight loss jabs suggests that so many people are now taking effective medication that the inexorable rise in obesity could start to reverse.

According to Simple Online Pharmacy, which has access to wholesale figures, 500,000 people in the UK are currently taking either Mounjaro or Wegovy – and they can expect to lose 15% to 20% of their weight over a matter of months.

Rebecca Moore, the company’s chief operating officer, said: “Our projections are that around a million people will reverse their obesity in a year.

“We should be at the point now, we believe, where we’re starting to see rates decline.

“We would not be surprised if by the end of this year we’ve seen a really significant decline in obesity.”

Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy
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Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy

The company has supplied the drugs to 200,000 people, who have collectively lost 600 tonnes of their weight.

Demand for medication is growing by 10% to 40% month-on-month, and the company has had to build a walk-in fridge to store enough medication to supply 400 patients an hour.

“The narrative has really shifted in the last few months,” said Ms Moore.

“People are recognising that obesity is a lifelong chronic condition. They’re recognising that this medication is a once-in-a-generation revolutionary technology.

“People are much more open to it and I expect that next year there will be another huge surge in growth.”

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The weight-loss drug that’s ‘too good’

Latest NHS figures show 27% of adults in England are obese, up from 15% in 1993.

Rates have started to plateau in the last couple of years as public health measures such as the sugar tax take effect.

But there are indications that obesity jabs have already begun to reverse obesity in the US and the same is likely to happen in the UK.

Around 95% of all patients using the medication are buying it privately, at a cost of around £150 a month.

Access on the NHS is poor, with research by Sky News showing just 800 patients had been prescribed Wegovy in specialist clinics four months after the rollout started in December 2023. That’s just 6% of the expected number.

And last month the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) bowed to demands from the NHS to restrict access to Mounjaro to just 200,000 of 3.4 million eligible patients over the first three years of the rollout.

Read more:
King Kong’ of weight loss jabs just too effective for NHS
Thousands denied jab due to slow NHS rollout

Wegovy injections

Sarah Le Brocq, founder of All About Obesity, sits as a patient representative on the NICE committee.

She said it was “hugely frustrating” that so many patients in need are being denied treatment.

“It’s not the NHS’s fault that they can’t fund these drugs,” she said.

“They need to have that money coming through [from government] because they can’t take it from cancer and put it into obesity.

“We are going to have tiered access. The wealthy can be healthy, but people who really need treatment can’t have it.”

Angela Chesworth had to do a ‘clinical trial’ of treatment on herself to prove to the NHS that the drugs could stop agonising abdominal pains that she suffered several times a week.

Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul
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Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul

Her consultant had agreed that her extra pounds were pulling on scar tissue from previous stomach surgery, but he was powerless to prescribe the treatment.

But since the summer, when she started weekly injections of Mounjaro, she has only had a couple of abdominal cramps and the NHS has now agreed to fund treatment.

“When you know there’s something out there that can help you, but you can’t have that help because of money or somebody who makes the rules, you feel worthless,” she told Sky News.

“Come and live in my shoes and see how I am and see how it affects me and then tell me I’m not worth the money.

“You want me to be part of society, you want me to do a job, you want me to expand the economy?

“I needed help, so it was very frustrating to be told no. And especially by the medical professionals.”

Her husband, Paul, is still having to buy his supply privately, despite being on the cusp of type 2 diabetes. After three months of treatment, he has lost two stone and is now healthy.

“I want to be healthy as long as I possibly can,” he said.

“For the last 15 years of his life my dad did not have good health or a good quality of life. He wasn’t able to get up in the morning quickly and ended up on a mobility scooter because he couldn’t walk far.

“All those things I want to try and avoid.”

The Department of Health said new drugs recommended by NICE need to be funded from existing NHS budgets. A spokesperson added: “We are also acting to tackle [obesity’s] causes, shifting our focus from treatment to prevention as part of our 10 Year Health Plan.”

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Budget 2025: Raft of tax hikes expected today – as more policies confirmed

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Budget 2025: Raft of tax hikes expected today - as more policies confirmed

A raft of tax rises is expected in the budget this lunchtime – with the chancellor acknowledging that voters are “angry at the unfairness in our economy”.

In a newly released video, Rachel Reeves said the public is “frustrated at the pace of change” – but vowed to “take the fair and necessary choices” to tackle the cost of living crisis.

And in a dig at the Conservatives – especially former prime minister Liz Truss – she pledged not to impose austerity, lose control of public spending, or engage in more reckless borrowing.

Budget 2025: Follow the latest in the Money blog and Politics Hub

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10 times Labour promised not to hike taxes

Tax rises: What we know so far

Taxation will be a dominant part of the budget as Ms Reeves tries to plug an estimated £30bn black hole in the public finances.

A headline measure is expected to be an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.

But given the chancellor had ruled out such a measure last year – because it would “hurt working people” and “take more money out of their payslips” – this will attract criticism from opposition parties.

The chancellor has backed away from raising income tax rates outright, a move that would have breached Labour’s manifesto, but she still needs to find the cash to pay for her public spending plans.

Watch our special programme for Budget 2025 live on Sky News from 11am
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Watch our special programme for Budget 2025 live on Sky News from 11am

Some measures already confirmed by the government include:

• Allowing local authorities to impose a levy on tourists staying in their areas

• Expanding the sugar tax levy to packaged milkshakes and lattes

• Imposing extra taxes on higher-value properties

It is being reported that the chancellor will also put a cap on the tax-free allowance for salary sacrifice schemes, raise taxes on gambling firms, and bring in a pay-per-mile scheme for electric vehicles.

Setting the scene ahead of the budget at 12.30pm, Ms Reeves said she will “push ahead with the biggest drive for growth in a generation”, promising investment in infrastructure, housing, security, defence, education, and skills.

Although she has vowed not to “duck challenges” nor “accept that our past must define our future”, she admitted that “the damage done from austerity, a chaotic Brexit, and the pandemic were worse than we thought”.

What are the key timings for the budget?

11am – Sky News special programme starts.

About 11.15am – Chancellor Rachel Reeves leaves Downing Street and holds up her red box.

12pm – Sir Keir Starmer faces PMQs.

12.30pm – The chancellor delivers the budget.

About 1.30pm – Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch delivers the budget response.

2.30pm – The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) holds a news conference on the UK economy.

4.30pm – Sky News holds a Q&A on what the budget means for you.

7pm – The Politics Hub special programme on the budget.

The fiscal black hole is down to several factors – including a downgrade in the productivity growth forecast, U-turns on cuts to benefits and the winter fuel allowance, as well as “heightened global uncertainty”.

Nonetheless, the chancellor has promised more investment to cut NHS waiting lists, deal with “waste in the public sector”, and reduce the national debt.

“This budget is for you, the British people. So that together we can build a fairer, stronger, and more secure Britain,” she said.

Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride has said Ms Reeves is “trying to pull the wool over your eyes” – having promised last year that she would not need to raise taxes again.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper has accused her and the prime minister of “yet more betrayals”.

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What is the ‘milkshake tax’?

What could her key spending announcements be?

As well as filling the black hole in the public finances, these measures could allow the chancellor to spend money on a key demand of Labour MPs – partially or fully lifting the two-child benefits cap, which they say will have an immediate impact on reducing child poverty.

Benefits more broadly will be uprated in line with inflation, at a cost of £6bn, The Times reports.

In an attempt to help households with the cost of the living, the paper also reports that the chancellor will seek to cut energy bills by removing some green levies, which could see funding for some energy efficiency measures reduced.

Other measures The Times says she will announce include retaining the 5p cut in fuel duty, and extending the Electric Car Grant by an extra year, which gives consumers a £3,750 discount at purchase.

The government has already confirmed several key announcements, including:

• An above-inflation £550 a year increase in the state pension for 13 million eligible pensioners

• A freeze in prescription prices and rail fares

• £5m to refresh libraries in secondary schools

Extra funding for the NHS will also be announced in a bid to slash waiting lists, including the expansion of the “Neighbourhood Health Service” across the country to bring together GP, nursing, dentistry and pharmacy services – as well as £300m of investment into upgrading technology in the health service.

And although the cost of this is borne by businesses, the chancellor will confirm a 4.1% rise to the national living wage – taking it to £12.71 an hour for eligible workers aged 21 and over.

For a full-time worker over the age of 21, that means a pay increase of £900 a year.

Read more from Sky News:
Will expected ‘stealth tax’ announcement affect you?
Are we set for another astoundingly complex budget?

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What the budget will mean for you

Britons facing ‘cost of living permacrisis’

However, the Tories have hit out at the chancellor for the impending tax rises, with shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride saying in a statement: “Having already raised taxes by £40bn, Reeves said she had wiped the slate clean, she wouldn’t be coming back for more, and it was now on her. A year later and she is set to break that promise.”

He described her choices as “political weakness” – choosing “higher welfare and higher taxes”, and “hardworking families are being handed the bill”.

The Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper is also not impressed, and warned last night: “The economy is at a standstill. Despite years of promises from the Conservatives and now Labour to kickstart growth and clamp down on crushing household bills, the British people are facing a cost-of-living permacrisis and yet more betrayals from those in charge.”

She called on the government to negotiate a new customs union with the EU, which she argues would “grow our economy and bring in tens of billions for the Exchequer”.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski has demanded “bold policies and bold choices that make a real difference to ordinary people”.

The SNP is calling on the chancellor to “help families” rather than “hammer them with billions of pounds of cuts and damaging tax hikes that destroy jobs and hurt economic growth”.

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Budget 2025: What is a freeze on income tax thresholds – and will you pay more?

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Budget 2025: What is a freeze on income tax thresholds - and will you pay more?

A headline tax-raising measure expected in today’s budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.

The amount people pay is dependent on how much they earn, with different tax bands kicking in at different income levels.

Read more: Chancellor to announce tax rises in budget

In the past, these thresholds have been increased in line with inflation. But more recently they have been frozen, leaving people paying more to the exchequer even if actual tax rates stay the same.

The Conservative government began the thresholds freeze in 2021. At last year’s budget, Rachel Reeves said the Labour government would extend the freeze though not beyond 2028, as to do so would “hurt working people”.

Sky News looks at what the thresholds are, the implications of freezing them, and how that causes “fiscal drag”.

Income tax thresholds

England, Northern Ireland and Wales all have the same income tax rates, set by the British government.

Scotland’s income tax bands are set by the Scottish government, so Westminster budget announcements on income tax do not affect workers in Scotland.

For England, Northern Ireland and Wales, there is a “personal allowance” of £12,570, under which no income tax is paid.

For those earning above £100,000, the personal allowance goes down by £1 for every £2 of income, and can go down to zero, so a person can end up paying income tax on all of their income.

What does freezing thresholds do?

Thresholds were previously increased annually by consumer price index (CPI) inflation – the estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought by households.

But, because income tax thresholds have been frozen while wages continue to rise, more people are being brought into higher bands and having to pay more income tax.

A worker whose earnings just keep up with inflation is paying a larger proportion of their salary in tax due to the freeze.

This means more money for the government – a lot more.

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The budget vs your wallet: How the chancellor could raise billions

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates a continuing freeze in thresholds would raise about £42.9bn annually by the 2027/28 tax year.

And the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has projected that freezes to the basic and higher rates of income tax alone would raise £39bn a year by 2029-30.

That is roughly similar to the amount of revenue that would be raised by increasing all income tax rates by 3.5 percentage points.

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Sky News goes inside the room where the budget is decided

Fiscal drag

Freezing income tax thresholds without tax rates increasing has been branded a “stealth tax”, as the government collects more revenue without having to pass a law to raise tax rates.

It is also known as fiscal drag, as more people are pulled into paying tax, or into paying tax at a higher rate.

The OBR estimates the freeze will bring nearly four million more people into paying income tax, three million more people into the higher rate (40%) and 400,000 more into the additional rate (45%) by 2028-29.

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Army pauses use of Ajax armoured fighting vehicles after dozens of soldiers fall ill

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Army pauses use of Ajax armoured fighting vehicles after dozens of soldiers fall ill

The British Army has paused the use of its new Ajax armoured fighting vehicles after “around 30” soldiers suffered vibration and hearing problems following a training exercise at the weekend.

A Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesperson said on Tuesday the two-week pause comes after “a small number of soldiers reported symptoms of noise and vibration” in the exercise, which was “immediately stopped”.

The spokesperson said “around 30 personnel presented noise and vibration symptoms” after tests were carried out, but the “vast majority of these have now been medically cleared and are continuing on duty”.

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Is the army’s new fighting vehicle any good?

A small number “continue to receive expert medical care”, they said.

“Out of an abundance of caution, the minister for defence readiness and industry [Luke Pollard] has asked the army to pause all use of Ajax for training and exercising for two weeks, while a safety investigation is carried out into the events this weekend.

“A small amount of testing of the vehicle will continue, in order to ensure that any issues can to identified and resolved.”

The MoD said the decision “underlines our absolute commitment to the safety of our personnel. As with any major equipment programme, we continue to test and refine the vehicle to ensure safety and performance”.

More on Ministry Of Defence

“The safety of our personnel is our top priority,” the spokesperson said.

The Ajax, which costs nearly £10m and weighs more than 40 tonnes, is being billed by the ministry as a “next generation” fighting machine.

The Ajax has a 40mm gun
Image:
The Ajax has a 40mm gun

As heavy as a Russian tank, the vehicle is equipped with cameras, protective armour and a 40mm gun, with bullets that can rip through concrete.

Soldiers were taken to hospital this summer after suffering hearing and other injuries because of loud noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles.

Earlier this month, the MoD confirmed that a “small number” of troops had reported noise and vibration concerns following trials on three variants of the tracked vehicle.

Read more on Sky News:
Is the Ajax any good?
UK defence plan’s ‘glacial’ progress
Damning report into UK’s fast jets programme

Ajax military vehicles. Pic: MoD
Image:
Ajax military vehicles. Pic: MoD

A spokesperson said an investigation was carried out and “no systemic issues were found”.

An internal review published in 2021 found that senior soldiers and MoD officials had known for up to two years that earlier faults with the Ajax vehicle had been putting troops at risk of harm.

The health and safety report revealed that issues such as potential hearing damage had first been raised in December 2018, but trials were not suspended until November 2020.

At that time, more than 300 soldiers were offered hearing tests, with 17 still under specialist care as of December 2021.

A total of 589 of the various Ajax models have been ordered by the army, which it expects to receive by 2030.

The Ajax could be deployed to Ukraine to support any possible peace deal, the MoD has indicated.

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