The chancellor is under pressure because financial market moves have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, putting Rachel Reeves’ economic plans in peril.
So what’s going on, and should we be worried?
What is a bond?
UK Treasury bonds, known as gilts because they used to literally have gold edges, are the mechanism by which the state borrows money from investors.
They pay a fixed annual return, known as a coupon, to the lender over a fixed period – five, 10 and 30 years are common durations – and are traded on international markets, which means their value changes even as the return remains fixed.
That means their true interest rate is measured by the ‘yield’, which is calculated by dividing the annual return by the current price. So when bond prices fall, the yield – the effective interest rate – goes up.
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And for the last three months, markets have been selling off UK bonds, pushing borrowing costs higher. This week the yield on 30-year gilts reached its highest level since 1998 at 5.37%, and 10-year gilts briefly hit a level last seen after the financial crisis, sparking jitters in markets and in Westminster.
Why are investors selling UK bonds?
Bond markets are influenced by many factors but the primary domestic pressure is the prospect of persistent inflation, with interest rates staying high for longer as a consequence.
Higher inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupon, and higher interest rates make the bond less competitive because investors can now buy bonds paying a higher rate. Both of which apply in the UK.
Inflation remains higher than the Bank of England‘s 2% target and many large companies are warning of further price rises as tax and wage rises bite in the spring.
As a result, the Bank is now expected to cut rates only twice this year, as opposed to the four reductions priced in by markets as recently as November.
Nor is there much optimism that the economic growth promised by the chancellor will save the day in the short term, with business groups warning investment will be tempered by taxes.
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Sky News’ Ed Conway on the impact of increased long-term borrowing costs as they hit their highest level in the UK since 1998
Is the UK alone?
No. Bond markets are international and in recent months the primary influence has been rising borrowing costs in the US, triggered by Donald Trump’s re-election and the assumption that tariffs and other policies will be inflationary.
The UK is not immune from those forces, and other European nations including Germany and France, facing their own political gyrations, have seen costs rise too. (The US influence could yet increase if strong labour market figures on Friday reinforce the sense that rates will remain high).
But there are specific domestic factors, particularly the prospect of stagflation. The UK is also more reliant on overseas investors than other G7 nations, which means the markets really matter.
Why does it matter to Reeves?
The cost of borrowing affects not just the issuance of new debt but the price of maintaining existing loans, and it matters because these higher costs could erode the “headroom” Ms Reeves left herself in her budget.
Headroom is a measure of how much slack she has against her self-imposed fiscal rule, itself intended to reassure markets that the UK is a stable location for investment, to fund day-to-day spending entirely from tax revenue by 2029-30.
At the budget, she had just £9.9bn of headroom and some analysts estimate market pressure has eroded all but £1bn of that.
At the end of March the Office for Budget Responsibility will provide an update on the fiscal position and market conditions could change before then, but if they don’t then Ms Reeves may have to rewrite her plans.
The Treasury this week described the fiscal rules as “non-negotiable”, which leaves a choice between raising taxes or, more likely, cutting costs to make the numbers add up.
Why does it matter to the rest of us?
Persistently higher rates could push up consumer debt costs, increasing the burden of mortgages and other loans. Beyond that, the state of the economy matters to all of us.
The underlying challenges – persistent inflation, stagnant growth, worse productivity, ailing public services – are fundamental, and Labour has promised to address them.
Investment in infrastructure and new industries, spurred by planning and financial market reform, are all promised as medium-term solutions to the structural challenges. But politics, like financial markets, is a short-term business, and Ms Reeves could do with some relief, starting with helpful inflation and growth figures due next week.
Piers Morgan, the broadcaster and journalist, is raising tens of millions of dollars of funding from heavyweight investors as he seeks to turn Uncensored, his YouTube-based venture, into a broad-based global media business.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Mr Morgan is in the process of finalising a roughly $30m (£22.5m) fundraising for Uncensored that will give it a pre-money valuation of about $130m (£97m).
The new investors are understood to include The Raine Group, the New York-based merchant bank, and Theo Kyriakou, the media mogul behind Greece’s Antenna Group, owner of a stake in London-based digital venture The News Movement.
Michael Kassan, a marketing veteran, is understood to be advising the business on advertising-related matters and may also invest in a personal capacity, according to insiders.
A number of family offices from around the world are also said to be in talks to become shareholders in Uncensored.
Joe Ravitch, the prominent American banker and Raine co-founder who has advised in recent years on the sale of Chelsea and Manchester United football clubs, is said to be joining the Uncensored board as part of the capital-raising.
The move comes nearly a year after Mr Morgan announced his departure from Rupert Murdoch’s British empire through a deal which handed him full control and ownership of his Uncensored YouTube channel.
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Allies of Mr Morgan said this weekend that some details of the fundraising were likely to be confirmed publicly in the coming days.
While the size of his personal stake in the business was unclear this weekend, insiders said the crystallisation of a $130m valuation would mean that Mr Morgan’s economic interest was, on paper, worth tens of millions of pounds.
“The ambition is to grow this into a billion dollar company within a few years,” said one person close to the discussions with investors.
“With the scale of audiences now being driven to digital channels and the commercial opportunities there, that is definitely achievable.”
The former Mirror editor, whose career has also encompassed stints at ITV, with CNN in the US and Mr Murdoch’s global media conglomerates News Corporation and Fox, is now drawing up plans to transform Uncensored into a more diverse digital media group.
This is expected to include the launch of a series of ‘verticals’ attached to the Uncensored brand, including channels dedicated to subjects such as history, sport and technology.
Mr Morgan is already said to be in talks with prominent figures to spearhead some of these new strands, with a chief executive also expected to be recruited to drive the growth of the overall Uncensored business.
His appetite to establish a YouTube-based global media network has been driven by the scale of the global audiences he has drawn to some of his recent work, including interviews with the footballer Cristiano Ronaldo and the former world tennis number one Novak Djokovic.
Image: Piers Morgan interviewed Ronaldo. Pic: Reuters
Both of those athletes have collaborated with Mr Morgan by posting parts of their exchanges on social media platforms, attracting hundreds of millions of views.
Mr Morgan’s access to President Donald Trump, whom he has interviewed on several occasions, is also likely to be a factor in the timing of Uncensored’s expansion strategy.
While many ‘legacy’ news and media networks remain hamstrung by inflated cost bases, Mr Morgan’s decision to go it alone and focus on developing the Uncensored brand reflects his belief that the news and media industries are ripe for disintermediation by channels tied to prominent, and sometimes controversial, individual journalists and presenters.
The Piers Morgan Uncensored YouTube channel has 4.3 million subscribers, roughly half of whom are from the US.
Of the remaining 50%, however, only a minority are British, with a significant number based in the Middle East, South Africa and parts of Asia.
Image: Novak Djokovic at Flushing Meadows. Pic: AP
This has fuelled Mr Morgan’s view that there is journalistic and commercial mileage in creating content on issues which historically might have struggled to generate a significant international audience – such as ongoing military and political tension between India and Pakistan, and the white farmer ‘genocide’ furore in South Africa.
Under the deal he struck with Mr Murdoch in January this year, Mr Morgan has a four-year revenue-sharing agreement that involves News UK receiving a slice of the advertising revenue generated by Piers Morgan Uncensored until 2029.
Mr Morgan had returned to Mr Murdoch’s media empire in January 2022 with a three-year agreement that included writing regular columns for The Sun and New York Post, as well as presenting shows on the company’s now-folded television channel, Talk TV.
He also recently released a book, Woke Is Dead, which was published by Mr Murdoch’s books subsidiary, Harper Collins.
As part of his new arrangements, Mr Morgan also signed a deal with Red Seat Ventures, a US-based agency which partners with prominent media figures and influencers to help them exploit commercial opportunities through sponsorship and other revenue streams.
Among those Red Seat has worked with are Megyn Kelly, the American commentator, and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News presenter.
While many well-known American news media figures are followed because of their partisanship and affiliations to either the political left or right, Mr Morgan has positioned himself as a ‘ringmaster’ who is not ideologically hidebound.
His plans come at a time of continuing upheaval in the global media industry, with Netflix agreeing a landmark $83bn deal this week to buy the Hollywood studio Warner Bros.
In the UK, Sky, the Comcast-owned immediate parent company of Sky News, is in talks to acquire ITV’s broadcasting business, while the Daily Telegraph newspaper could soon find itself as a stablemate of the Daily Mail if a proposed £500m deal is successful.
Meanwhile, Reach, the London-listed newspaper publisher which owns the Daily Express and the Daily Mirror, now has a market valuation of just £176m – less than double that of Mr Morgan’s new standalone digital media company.
When Sky News revealed Mr Morgan’s move to separate from News UK earlier this year, he said: “Owning the [Uncensored] brand allows my team and I the freedom to focus exclusively on building Uncensored into a standalone business, editorially and commercially, and in time, widening it from just me and my content.
“It’s clear from the… US election that YouTube is an increasingly powerful and influential media platform, and Uncensored is one of the fastest-growing shows on it in the world.
“I’m very excited about the potential for Uncensored.”
This weekend, he added: “I am very excited that some of the most experienced and successful players in the global media industry, like Joe, Michael and Theo, share my ambitious vision for Uncensored.
It’s a debate that has raged since the end of the COVID pandemic but, despite regulatory scrutiny, it’s fair to say there’s been no clear answer to accusations that UK drivers pay over the odds for fuel.
What was once a promotional loss leader for supermarkets desperate for drivers to fill their car boots with groceries, unleaded and diesel costs have been unusually high for years.
Fuel retailers say there is a simple explanation: rising costs being passed on to motorists.
But critics argue there is a reason why the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has consistently found that we’re paying more than we should be – and that the disparity between wholesale costs and pump prices has got worse in recent months.
So: who’s right?
What the oil data tells us
Oil prices are well down on levels seen in January (between $75 and $82 a barrel) but fuel prices are clearly not.
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In recent weeks, Brent crude has traded in the range of $62 to $64 per barrel and yet drivers are currently, on average, paying £1.37 a litre for petrol and £1.46 for diesel.
The average pumps costs in January stood at £1.39 and £1.45 – despite the significantly higher oil costs seen at the time.
Prices can be affected by all sorts of factors including the value of the pound versus the oil-priced dollar, but that disparity is notable.
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0:57
Trump’s ambassador tells UK to drill for oil
There is another, emerging, factor to consider
It might surprise you to learn that the UK now has only four operational refineries to produce petrol and diesel after two major sites shut this year.
The decline has sparked an industry warning of a crisis due to high UK carbon charges, imposed by the government, that have made domestic fuel producers uncompetitive versus imports.
The loss of the refinery at Grangemouth this spring has been particularly acute as it left Scotland without domestic production and at the mercy of a more complicated and expensive delivery structure.
Fuel retailers say the impact has been minimal so far, mainly due to remaining UK refineries raising production.
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2:31
‘Drill baby drill’
The case for the prosecution
Quite simply, fuel price campaigners and motoring groups have long accused the industry of raising its profit margins.
Supermarkets focused price investment elsewhere as the cost of living crisis took hold but the days of Asda (before it was bought by the fuel-focused Issa brothers and private equity) leading a sector-wide fuel price war are long gone.
Reports by both the AA and RAC this week highlight price spikes despite a 5p slump in wholesale costs a fortnight ago.
The AA said: “At the height of the spike, it matched what had been seen in mid June. Then, the petrol pump average reached a maximum of 135.8p by late July.
It said that government data had since shown pump prices at levels not seen since March.
The body questioned the reasons behind that disparity and also pointed towards, what it called, a postcode lottery for pump costs with gaps of up to 9p a litre between towns only 10 miles apart.
The RAC declared on Thursday that pump prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months during November, with diesel at a 15-month high.
The critics have also included regulators as monitoring of fuel retailers by the CMA since its original market study has consistently found that drivers have been excessively charged.
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1:01
‘It’s either keep warm or eat’
What’s the fuel industry’s position?
It pleads “not guilty”.
The bodies representing retailers make the point that the CMA and its wider critics fail to take into account huge rises in costs they have faced over the past four years – costs which are being/have been passed on across the economy.
These include those for energy, business rates, minimum wage, employer national insurance costs and record sums arising from forecourt crime.
The Petrol Retailers’ Association (PRA), which represents the majority of forecourts, told Sky News that average margins across the sector are the same today as they were a year ago at between 3% to 4% after costs.
It suggests no fuel for the fire surrounding those profiteering allegations but that rising costs have been passed on in full.
Image: Pic: iStock
What has the regulator done?
The CMA’s road fuel market study committed to monitor the market and recommended a compulsory fuel finder scheme to help bolster competition. That was two-and-a-half years ago.
Limited data has been widely available via motoring apps ahead of the start of the official scheme, expected in spring next year, which will bring real-time pricing into a driver’s view for the first time.
The CMA hopes that by forcing each retailer to divulge their prices in real time, customers will vote with their feet.
In the regulator’s defence
The CMA could argue that government has dragged its heels in implementing its fuel finder recommendation.
While the Conservatives accepted it, Labour is now pushing it through parliament.
The regulator can only act within the powers it has been given. It would say that it can’t threaten or hand out fines until its recommendations are in play and they have been clearly flouted.
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5:10
What next for the UK economy?
So who’s right?
This is a debate all about transparency but we clearly don’t have a full view on the complicated, and shifting, supply chain which can influence pump prices.
The CMA hopes that postcode lotteries for pump costs will ease once more drivers are aware of the ability to compare and shop around.
But the main reason why this issue remains unresolved is that the CMA’s findings have been incomplete to date.
Its determinations that pump costs have been excessive have all been made without taking retailers’ operating costs into full account.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Why we are closer to an answer
The CMA’s next market update is expected within weeks and will, for the first time, take more extensive cost data into account.
A spokesperson told Sky News: “We recommended the Fuel Finder scheme to help drivers avoid paying more than they should at the pump, and the government intends to launch it by spring 2026.
“The scheme will give drivers real-time price information, helping them find the cheapest fuel and putting pressure on retailers to compete.
“We looked closely at operating costs during our review of the market, and they formed a key part of our final report in 2023.
“As we confirmed in June, we’ve been examining claims that these costs have risen and will set out our assessment in our annual report later this month.”
The hope must be that both sides involved can accept the report’s findings for the first time, to bring this bitter debate to an end once and for all.”
The chairman and chief executive of one of the world’s biggest banks has said countries have “got to be careful” with their budgets and ask themselves what a tax rise is for.
Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan was speaking about the UK budget to Sky’s Wilfred Frost on his The Master Investor Podcast.
While Mr Moynihan said the recent UK fiscal announcement was “fine with Bank of America”, he added that governments must be careful with financial markets’ reaction.
“All countries have to understand that the simple question a business asks is, you want higher taxes… higher taxes for what? If the ‘for what’ is not something that makes sense, that’s when you get in trouble,” Mr Moynihan said.
The American executive was complimentary of the UK as a centre for financial services, saying, “You’ve got to realise this is one of your best industries”.
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“You have many other good industries, but a great industry for you is financial services”.
The power of London
While Paris was looked to in the wake of Brexit, London has pulling power for Bank of America and its staff, Mr Moynihan said.
“London is a great city for young kids to come work. People from all over the world will come work here a while and leave, and others will stay here permanently.
“That’s the advantage you have. You’re built. And while other financial centres are trying to build…. you’re built, you’re there.”
London, he said, is Bank of America’s “headquarters of the world”.
Mr Moynihan was upbeat about the prospects for the country too. “It’s more upside for the UK right now than anything else,” he said.
Bank of America is the second-largest bank in America with a market capitalisation of nearly $300bn – making it roughly 10 times bigger than Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest, and more than three times bigger than HSBC.
Having met with the King again on his latest trip to the UK, the CEO said, “his briefing and his knowledge and his passion… it not only impresses me, but I’ve seen it in front of so many people over the last six years. It impresses everybody”.
Mr Moynihan – one of the longest-serving Wall Street chief executives – has been leading Bank of America since 2010, when he was brought after the financial crisis.