Britain’s gas storage levels are “concerningly low” with less than a week of demand available, the operator of the country’s largest gas storage site has warned.
Plunging temperatures and high demand for gas-fired power are the main factors behind the low levels, Centrica said, adding that the need to replenish stocks could lead to rising prices ahead.
The UK is heavily reliant on gas for its home heating and also uses a significant amount for electricity generation.
National Grid data on Friday showed that natural gas accounted for 53% of power in the UK’s system, with renewables offering just 16% of the country’s needs.
Following the UK’s decision to ditch carbon intensive coal from its energy mix, extra strain is heaped on gas during cold snaps because wind generation can often be lower due to high pressure weather systems.
Earlier this week, the UK’s electricity grid operator issued a rare notice to power firms that sought higher output to prevent a greater risk of blackouts within the network.
As of 9 January, UK gas storage sites “were 26% lower than last year’s inventory at the same time, leaving them around half full,” Centrica said.
“This means the UK has less than a week of gas demand in store.”
The Labour government is investing more heavily in clean energy to bolster the battle against climate change and has shunned pressure to bolster gas supplies through additional North Sea fields.
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said in response to Centrica’s storage alert: “We have no concerns and are confident we will have a sufficient gas supply and electricity capacity to meet demand this winter, due to our diverse and resilient energy system.
“Our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower will maintain the UK’s energy security in the long term – investing in clean homegrown power and protecting billpayers.”
Centrica’s Rough gas storage site in the North Sea, off England’s east coast, makes up around half of the country’s gas storage capacity.
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Centrica has previously said it could invest £2bn to upgrade Rough further, but it would need support from the government through a price cap and floor mechanism to make this viable.
Combined with stubbornly high gas prices, this has meant it has been more difficult to top up storage over Christmas.
Centrica said the “situation is echoed across Europe” – where gas storage was at 69% at the start of this week, down from 84% during the same period the previous year.
Unlike Europe, Britain does not have a mandatory gas storage target.
“We are an outlier from the rest of Europe when it comes to the role of storage in our energy system and we are now seeing the implications of that,” said Centrica chief executive Chris O’Shea.
“If Rough had been operating at full capacity in recent years, it would have saved UK households £100 from both their gas and their electricity bills each winter,” he added.
Gas stores are important as they enable countries to not only guarantee supplies during the transition to renewables but also avoid short term price spikes on wholesale markets.
High storage is also an important tool in moderating price swings.
But the UK has been particularly vulnerable in this space since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when sanctions meant key taps to Europe were shut off, forcing nations such as the UK and Germany to scramble for supplies.
It has left Europe reliant on the US for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in particular, with Norway a key exporter of natural gas via pipeline to the UK.
The need for Europe as a whole to replenish depleted stocks at the end of winter is among reasons why wholesale prices have remained elevated, leaving households and businesses at the mercy of further hikes to energy bills.
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”
A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.
Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.
It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.
That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.
Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.
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If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.
Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.
His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.
News of more cuts has boosted markets.
The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.
State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.
The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.
Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.