LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history
The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.
In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to about $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.
Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.
More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.
“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.
These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA
Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.
“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.
“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.
The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.
The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.
These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.
At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.
The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.
On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.
The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.
At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.
On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.
Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.
The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.
“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.
“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
US President Donald Trump says he has yet to decide whether the US will join Israel militarily in its campaign against Iran.
Asked whether the US was getting closer to striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Mr Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it.”
Speaking outside the White House on Wednesday, he added: “Nobody knows what I’m going to do…Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.
“And I said, ‘why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?'”
Mr Trump said Iran had reached out to Washington, a claim Tehran denied, with Iran’s mission to the UN responding: “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would not surrender and warned “any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage” to US-Iranian relations.
Read more:
Why did Israel attack Iran?
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The families caught up in Iran-Israel attacks
Strikes continue
Hundreds have reportedly died since Iran and Israel began exchanging strikes last Friday, when Israel launched an air assault after saying it had concluded Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim Tehran denies.
Israel launched three waves of aerial attacks on Iran in the last 24 hours, military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin has said.
Israel deployed dozens of warplanes to strike over 60 targets in Tehran and western Iran, including missile launchers and missile-production sites, he said.
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Can Iran’s leadership be toppled?
“The aim of the operation is to eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel, significantly damage Iran’s nuclear programme in all its components, and severely impact its missile array,” he said.
Early on Thursday Israel issued an evacuation warning to residents of the Iranian Arak and Khandab regions where Iran has heavy water reactor facilities. Heavy water is important in controlling chain reactions in the production of weapons grade plutonium.
Meanwhile Iran says it has arrested 18 people it describes as “enemy agents” who it says were building drones for the Israelis in the northern city of Mashhad.
Iran also launched small barrages of missiles at Israel on Wednesday with no reports of casualties. Israel has now eased some restrictions for its civilians.
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The US is working to evacuate its citizens from Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, the US ambassador to the country has said.
In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer chaired a COBRA emergency meeting on the situation in the Middle East, with a Downing Street spokesperson saying: “Ministers were updated on efforts to support British nationals in region and protect regional security, as well as ongoing diplomatic efforts”.
A senior US senator who supports Donald Trump has told Sky News why he believes the US would be right to intervene in Iran.
Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas who ran against Mr Trump in 2016 but now backs him, told US correspondent David Blevins that Iran is an “acute threat to the national security of the US”.
He went on to claim that because “Iran is also building ICBMs (intercontinental ballistc missiles)” and “You don’t need an ICBM to go to Israel”, it indicated Iran’s intention “to take a nuclear weapon to the United States to murder Americans”.
“Nobody is talking about invading Iran,” Mr Cruz added. “We’re not going to see boots on the ground.”
Middle East latest: Trump says he ‘may or may not’ strike Iran
It comes after the US president said he “may do it, I may not do it” when asked if he would launch a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
So far, Israel has been attacking Iran alone since it ramped up its military action last Friday, launching strikes against what it says are Tehran’s facilities for developing a nuclear weapon and also destroying its air defences.
Iran has always denied seeking the ability to make a nuclear weapon from its uranium enrichment programme.
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Blevins’s fellow US correspondent Mark Stone says that while figures like Mr Cruz back military action, “a whole host of other figures are saying ‘do not do it'”.
“The social media space is absolutely full of MAGA [Make America Great Again] figures from the right… saying ‘we absolutely must not go into Iran’.”
If the US were to decide to take military action against Iran, it could have implications for the UK, as America may ask to station refuelling aircraft at a British base in Cyprus and B-2 bombers, which could carry the bunker buster bombs required to attack Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, could launch from the British base of Diego Garcia.
Mr Cruz told Sky News that while many of Mr Trump’s support base did not want to see the US involve itself in another war, “the overwhelming majority of Americans, nearly 80%, support President Trump, and support President Trump defending us against an Iranian nuclear weapon.”
America is deploying more fighter planes to the Middle East in a “demonstration of force” as tensions escalate and speculation about a possible US strike on Iran continues.
Pictures and flight tracking data show F-35 jets and tanker aircraft being moved towards the region, as well as the tasking of an aircraft carrier, providing options in case President Donald Trump decides to intervene in the conflict.
But one particular aircraft that has not been seen just yet – the B-2 stealth bomber – could reveal the most about America’s intentions towards Iran…
Why is America moving more aircraft to the Middle East?
“It’s giving them options,” says military analyst Michael Clarke. “They have got four types of aircraft – including fighters, interceptors and fighter-bombers – all in the right region.”
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Clarke: What could US involvement look like as Iran attacks ease
The new arrivals can be spread around several existing military bases that the US has in the region in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
“More is better and also it’s a demonstration of force,” Prof Clarke added. “There’s a political element behind it, to show the Iranians what they can do, but also to other allies.
“The Americans want to be taken seriously in all of this.”
A Boeing KC-46A Pegasus, primarily used for aerial refueling, is seen on tracking in the eastern Mediterranean. Pic: Flightradar24
Analysis: What aircraft have moved to the region?
Sky News analysis of flight-tracking data shows more than 30 US military planes have been active over parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea over the past three days.
These include planes used for reconnaissance, refuelling in mid-air as well as carrying cargo.
Map of US military bases in the Middle East
An air-traffic control recording from the US suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
In images taken by photographer Glenn Lockett in Suffolk, three US air tankers were seen flying over England, each accompanied by four F-35 jets.
F-35s are one of the most advanced warplanes in the world, known for their ability to evade enemy radar.
A US air tanker seen flying over England, accompanied by F-35 jets. Credit: Instagram/g.lockaviation
Flight tracking data shows that the tankers travelled to the Mediterranean and then returned to the UK.
Most of the US military planes tracked by Sky News regularly turn off their locations and final destinations, according to the data from Flightradar24.
Some of the planes moved from the US to Europe, while others appeared to move closer to the Middle East. At least five of the US military aircraft landed at Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.
An air-traffic control recording from the US also suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
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US insists deployments are defensive
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that the deployment of more aircraft was defensive in nature, as Washington looks to safeguard its forces in the region.
Fighter aircraft have been used to shoot down drones and projectiles in the past.
America already has a substantial force in the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops as well as air defence systems, aircraft and warships.
But as the conflict between Israel and Iran carries on – and President Trump continues to make threats against Tehran – it’s possible that multiple options could be on the table for intervention.
B-2 bombers – the ones to watch?
Asked what he’s looking out for as speculation about whether the US will intervene directly continues, Prof Clarke pointed to one particular aircraft that hasn’t been seen moving towards the region yet: The B-2 stealth bomber.
Known for its iconic triangle shape and ability to penetrate deep air defences undetected, the B-2 has lesser-known capability that could be crucial for any action over Iran: it can carry ‘bunker buster’ bombs.
So far Israel has not been able to damage Iran’s secretive Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which is buried deep beneath a mountain.
A B-2 stealth bomber flies over Washington DC during a 4 July celebration. File pic: AP
The only bomb believed to be powerful enough to penetrate the facility is America’s GBU-57, a 14-ton bomb that is so heavy it can only be launched from the US fleet of heavy bomber aircraft.
Any movement of B-2 bombers to the joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could “indicate the likelihood that the Americans are going to use bunker busters in Iran,” Prof Clarke says.
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