LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history
The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.
In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to about $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.
Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.
More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.
“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.
These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA
Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.
“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.
“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.
The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.
The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.
These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.
At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.
The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.
On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.
The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.
At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.
On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.
Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.
The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.
“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.
“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
TikTok is to be banned in the US from Sunday if it is not sold by its Chinese parent company, the Supreme Court has ruled.
However, President Joe Biden has said he will not enforce the ban for the few remaining hours he is in office, leaving it up to Donald Trump to decide what to do when he enters the White House on Monday.
After the Supreme Court ruling, where the judges voted 9-0 in favour of the ban, the White House released a statement saying TikTok should remain available to Americans.
“TikTok should remain available to Americans, but simply under American ownership or other ownership that addresses the national security concerns identified by Congress in developing this law,” the White House said in a statement.
Analysis: America flinches as TikTok prepares to ‘go dark’ – will Trump save the day?
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Why is TikTok getting banned in the US?
The US’s top judges were deciding whether to overturn the ban after hearing appeals from TikTok creators and its lawyers.
US officials banned the app over concerns its parent company could give data on American citizens to the Chinese government. TikTok’s owners Bytedance have repeatedly said they won’t sell the social media platform.
President-elect Donald Trump also tried to get the ban delayed, so he could make a decision on it once he was in office.
However, the Supreme Court has decided to stick with the original ban.
Now, one day before Mr Trump returns to the White House, the social media app used by 170 million Americans will be banned.
File pic: Reuters
What happens on Sunday?
On Sunday, a few things could happen, especially now President Biden has said he will not enforce the ban.
There could be a quick beheading, with TikTok itself as the executioner.
There are reports the company will pull the plug for US users. When they attempt to open the app, people will see a pop-up message directing them to a website with information about the ban, Reuters is reporting.
At a Supreme Court hearing last week, TikTok’s lawyer said the app would “go dark” in the US if the ban came into force.
Although there are a lot of American TikTok users, more than 1.5 billion people use TikTok worldwide, so the company could well decide it can manage without its US influencers.
If Mr Trump decides to enforce the ban, there could be a slow, painful death for TikTok in the US, where companies including Apple and Google take it off their app stores.
That will mean no new users can download the app and there won’t be any updates.
The app will slowly get clunkier and buggier and US creators will start to disappear.
Or, the president-elect will work out a way of stopping the ban coming into force.
Pic: Reuters
Will Donald Trump save US TikTok?
Mr Trump gets into the White House the day after the ban begins.
He is now a big fan of TikTok with more than 14.8 million followers. He even credited the app with helping him win back the presidency.
He may try to undermine the ban, but he does not have the power to overturn it.
He could, however, say he won’t enforce it, and promise app store hosts such as Apple and Google they will not be prosecuted if they keep the app on their platforms.
Whether those major companies will want to take the risk of ignoring a legal ban is up for debate, however.
After the Supreme Court’s decision, Mr Trump said he would make a decision quickly on how to deal with TikTok but he “must have time to review the situation”.
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Devotees of TikTok gather in Washington as the ban was passed in 2024. File pic: AP
What is happening to US TikTok users?
US TikTokers have already started to migrate, with many heading to the Chinese social media app Xiaohongshu, or RedNote, which topped the US App Store this week.
In just two days, more than 700,000 new users joined Xiaohongshu, according to Reuters.
“They’re trying to give a big middle finger to the establishment,” Chinese RedNote user William Wang told Sky News, after he watched the app flood with Americans using the hashtag #TikTokRefugees.
“They’re rebellious, they’re going to go on a very Chinese application, not just TikTok, an entirely Chinese ecosystem.”
For the users not heading to RedNote, the more traditional apps are waiting in the wings.
Read more:
What is RedNote?
Social media expert Adam Tinworth told Sky News the last time a major country banned TikTok, in India in 2020, it was not start-ups who benefitted – despite “a bunch” trying to fill the gap.
He said: “Because Meta had its Reels project ready and Alphabet had Shorts in YouTube, the vast majority of the activity on TikTok just gravitated towards those two platforms.”
When the ban was being discussed last year, Mr Trump said one of his issues was that the ban would send more people to Mark Zuckerberg’s apps.
“Without TikTok, you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people,” he said in March 2024.
Donald Trump’s swearing-in ceremony is to be moved indoors due to cold weather forecast for Washington DC on Monday.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, the president-elect said he will now take the oath of office inside the Capitol Rotunda building, where dignitaries and guests will gather and prayers and other speeches will also be delivered.
It means the roughly 250,000 people who were ticketed to view the inauguration from around the Capitol grounds will no longer be able to do so.
Thousands more were expected to be in general admission areas or to line the route from the Capitol Building to the White House.
A guide to everything that will happen on 20 January
Mr Trump said the Capitol One Arena in Washington will open for a live viewing of his swearing-in ceremony and to host the Presidential Parade.
“I will join the crowd at Capital One, after my swearing-in,” he said.
Outlining the reasons for the inauguration to be moved in doors, he said: “The weather forecast for Washington DC, with the wind chill factor, could take temperatures into severe record lows.
“There is an Arctic blast sweeping the country. I don’t want to see people hurt, or injured, in any way.
“It is dangerous conditions for the tens of thousands of law enforcement, first responders, police K9s and even horses, and hundreds of thousands of supporters that will be outside for many hours on the 20th.
“In any event, if you decide to come, dress warmly.”
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A who’s who of the Trump family
Mr Trump wrote that all other events from his inauguration day will “remain the same”, including the Victory Rally at the Capital One Arena on Sunday and all three Inaugural Balls on Monday evening.
He added in his Truth Social post: “Everyone will be safe, everyone will be happy, and we will, together, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
A spokesperson for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies (JCCIC) said in a statement that it will “honour the request of the President-elect and his Presidential Inaugural Committee to move the 60th Inaugural Ceremonies inside the U.S. Capitol to the Rotunda”.
Preparations were under way for the presidential inauguration to take place outdoors. Pic: Reuters
The last time a swearing-in ceremony was held indoors was Ronald Reagan’s second inauguration in 1985. Monday’s forecast suggests the lowest inauguration day temperatures since that day.
The National Weather Service is predicting the temperature to be around -6C at noon during the swearing-in, the coldest since Mr Reagan’s second inauguration saw temperatures plunge to -14C.
Barack Obama’s 2009 swearing-in was -2C. Adding to the bite, the wind is forecast to be 30 to 35mph.
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If you think TikTok is messing with the heads of young people, consider what it’s been doing to America’s most powerful adults.
Last March, Congress voted overwhelmingly to ban the app on American soil unless a US buyer was found.
Despite claims or speculation that anyone from Elon Musk to MrBeast might be buyers, a deal has yet to emerge, with TikTok maintaining it’s not for sale.
Read more: TikTok to be banned in the US from Sunday, Supreme Court rules
Now, the US Supreme Court has dismissed legal challenges against the ban by the company and its users that said the new law would violate US free speech laws.
As things currently stand, the ban will take effect on January 19th, with TikTok saying the app will “go dark” in the US on Sunday.
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Why is TikTok getting banned in the US?
But will it?
Outgoing US President Joe Biden and his successor Donald Trump, who both originally backed the ban, are siding against it.
Mr Biden has said he will not allow prosecutions for violations of the ban during his last 36 hours in office.
Mr Trump has indicated he will use an executive order to effectively suspend the ban until a US buyer is found.
You can almost hear the chuckles in the corridors of the National People’s Congress in Beijing.
Though owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company, TikTok has never been available in China.
Pic: Reuters
It was the US Congress that decided the app was (delete as appropriate to your level of paranoia): distracting; influencing; spying on; brainwashing American youth.
Yet it looks as if Mr Biden’s last day in office may be overshadowed by 170 million, mostly young, Americans opening their favourite app to be confronted with a blank screen – and blaming him for it.
And Mr Trump celebrating his inauguration with the chief executive of TikTok Shou Zi Chew, but without his 14.8 million followers on TikTok.
Not to mention the seven million US businesses, according to TikTok, that profit from the platform having to hawk their wares on Facebook, Instagram and X and understandably wondering about the fairness of it all.
It’s looking as if America called TikTok’s bluff and it simply “swiped up”, threatening to take all the dances, trends, memes and marketing opportunities with it.
And America has flinched.
TikTok users protest against the ban. File pic: AP
So what happens now?
TikTok may accept the reassurance of Mr Trump and keep the app running in the US. But it’s a legally precarious position for a company as it would still be in breach of US law.
According to incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, team Trump will “keep TikTok alive… if there is a viable deal”.
But what does that even look like?
TikTok’s success is largely based on its technology.
Its algorithm is famous (or infamous, depending on whether you are a teenager or parent) in social media for its ability to feed users content that keeps them glued to the app.
A powerful AI curates the “For You” page that tailors videos, not just based on content a particular user views, but the faces, video length, text and topics it thinks they will like.
The company has key patents on automatic music generation and various filters that help users create videos.
While it has a hefty 170 million users in the US, it has more than 1.4 billion more worldwide.
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ByteDance has indicated that TikTok’s algorithm is not up for sale, nor, it’s reasonable to assume, are the rest of its patents.
Why would it give up all that for a fraction – albeit a lucrative one – of its overall market?
It seems unlikely a potential US buyer would pay much just to own TikTok’s platform and its list of US users if it had no way of offering them the same experience they enjoyed on the app before.
ByteDance (and the Chinese government which would have to approve the deal) could be persuaded to sell the app in its entirety to a US entity.
But the price is expected to be high: in the region of $100bn, which would be steep for even America’s richest tech titans.
That said, a deal could happen.
Mr Trump has announced he discussed TikTok on a call with China’s premier Xi Jinping.
Has the app become an unexpected pawn in US-China relations?
Keen to avoid punitive tariff’s threatened by Mr Trump, Beijing may be willing to let TikTok go.
Mr Trump may help close the deal, win favour with 170 million young voters, and gain powerful leverage over yet another social media platform.
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