LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history
The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.
In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to about $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.
Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.
More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.
“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.
These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA
Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.
“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.
“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.
The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.
The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.
These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.
At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.
The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.
On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.
The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.
At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.
On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.
Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.
The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.
“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.
“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
It’s 5.30am, but the car park outside a laundrette in south central Los Angeles is already bustling.
A woman is setting up a stand selling tacos on the pavement and the sun is beginning to rise behind the palm trees.
A group of seven women and two men are gathered in a circle, most wearing khaki green t-shirts.
The leader, a man named Francisco “Chavo” Romero, begins by asking how everyone is feeling. “Angry,” a few of them respond. “Proud of the community for pushing back,” says another.
Ron, a high school history teacher, issues a rallying cry. “This is like Vietnam,” he says. “We’re taking losses, but in the end we’re going to win. It’s a war.”
Francisco ‘Chavo’ Romero leads a volunteer group, attempting to warn people ahead of ICE raids
This is what the resistance against Donald Trump’s immigration policy looks like here. In the past month, immigration and customs enforcement agents – known as ICE – have intensified their raids on homes and workplaces across Los Angeles.
Since the beginning of June, nearly 2,800 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in the city, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The previous monthly high was just over 850 arrests in May this year.
Police use tear gas against protesters, angry at a recent immigration raid at a farm in Camarillo, California. Pic: AP
Videos have circulated online of people being tackled to the ground in the car park of DIY shops, in car washes and outside homes. The videos have prompted outrage, protests and a fightback.
“Chavo” and Ron belong to a group of organised volunteers called Union del Barrio. Every morning, a group of them meet, mostly in areas which have high immigrant populations.
The day I meet them, they’re in an area of LA which is heavily Latino. Armed with walkie talkies to communicate with each other, megaphones to warn the community and leaflets to raise awareness they set out in cars in different directions.
A volunteer from Union del Barrio shows Sky’s Martha Kelner how they try to stay one step ahead of ICE agents
They’re looking for cars used by ICE agents to monitor “targets”.
“That vehicle looks a little suspicious,” says Ron, pointing out a white SUV with blacked-out windows, “but there’s nobody in it”.
An elderly Latino man is standing on a street corner, cutting fruit to sell at his stall. “He’s the exact target that they’re looking for,” Ron says. “That’s what they’re doing now. The low-hanging fruit, the easy victim. And so that is proving to be more successful for their quotas.”
This man, selling fruit on a street corner in LA, is a potential target of immigration agents
In the end, it turns out to be a quiet morning in this part of LA, no brewing immigration operations. But elsewhere in the city, dawn raids are happening.
ICE agents are under pressure from the White House to boost their deportation numbers in line with Donald Trump’s campaign promise to crack down on illegal immigration.
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In June, tear gas and rubber bullets were fired at protestors demonstrating against immigration raids
Maria’s husband Javier was one of those arrested in LA. He came to the United States from Mexico when he was 19 and is now 58.
The couple have three grown-up children and two grandchildren. But Javier’s work permit expired two years ago, according to Maria and so he was living here illegally.
Maria’s husband Javier was arrested after his work permit expired
She shows me a video taken last month when Javier was at work at a car wash in Pomona, an area of LA. He is being handcuffed and arrested by armed and masked ICE agents, forced into a car. He is now being held at a detention centre two hours away.
“I know they’re doing their job,” she says, “but it’s like, ‘you don’t have to do it like that.’ Getting them and, you know, forcing people and pushing them down on the ground. They’re not animals.”
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US troops accused of ‘political stunt’ after park raid
Maria wipes away tears as she explains the impact of his absence for the past four weeks. “It’s been so hard without him,” she says. “You feel alone when you get used to somebody and he’s not there any more. We’ve never been apart for as long as this.”
The family have a lawyer and is appealing for him to remain in the US, but Maria fears he will be sent back to Mexico or even a third country.
Maria fears her husband, who has lived in the US for nearly 40 years, will be sent back to Mexico
“I don’t know what to say to my grandkids because the oldest one, who is five was very attached to his papas, as he calls him. And he’s asking me, ‘When is papa coming home?’ and I don’t know what to say. He’s not a criminal.”
The fear in immigrant communities can be measured by the empty restaurant booths and streets that are far quieter than usual.
People in LA are being asked to report sightings of ICE officials so others can be warned
I meet Soledad at the Mexican restaurant she owns in Hollywood. When I arrive, she’s watching the local news on the TV as yet another raid unfolds at a nearby farm.
She’s shaking her head as ICE agents face off with protesters and military helicopters hover overhead. “I am scared. I am very scared,” she says.
All of her eight employees are undocumented, and four of them are too scared to come into work, she says, in case they get arrested. The process to get papers, she says, is too long and too expensive.
Read more from Sky News:
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Soledad, who owns a Mexican restaurant, plans to hide her illegal workers if immigration officials arrive
“They call me and tell me they are too afraid to come in because immigration is around,” she says.
“I have to work double shifts to be able to make up for their hours, and yes, I am very desperate, and sometimes I cry… We have no sales, and no money to pay their wages.”
There is just one woman eating fajitas at a booth, where there would usually be a lunchtime rush. People are chilled by the raids.
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Soledad says she plans to hide her illegal workers if immigration officials arrive.
“I’ve told them, get inside the fridge, hide behind the stove, climb up where we have a space to store boxes, do not run because they will hunt you down.”
The White House says they’re protecting the country from criminals. ICE agents have been shot at while carrying out operations, their work becoming more dangerous by the day.
The tension here is ratcheting up. Deportation numbers are rising too. But the order from Donald Trump is to arrest even more people living here illegally.
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