‘The future is in our hands’ scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold
Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.
Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.
The record heat has not only has real-world implications, as it contributed to deadly flooding in Spain and vicious drought in places like Zambia in southern Africa.
It is also highly symbolic.
Countries agreed in the landmark Paris Agreement to limit warming ideally to 1.5C, because after that the impacts would be much more dangerous.
The news arrives as California battles “hell on earth” wildfires, suspected to have been exacerbated by climate change.
And it comes as experts warn support for the Paris goals is “more fragile than ever” – with Donald Trump and the Argentinian president poised to row back on climate action.
What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?
Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.
The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.
The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.
But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.
Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.
Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.
Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.
Paris goal ‘not obsolete’
Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.
Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.
The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.
The California fires were whipped up by strong, dry winds and likely worsened by climate change. Pic: Reuters
Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.
Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’
Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.
The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.
The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.
Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.
The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.
“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said there is a “good chance” to end the war with Russia.
The embattled Ukrainian president was speaking after he accepted a proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire and Vladimir Putin stuck to his red lines on needing certain conditions to be met.
“Right now, we have a good chance to end this war quickly and secure peace. We have solid security understandings with our European partners,” Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.
“We are now close to the first step in ending any war – silence,” he said, referring to a truce.
Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
He later urged the US and other allies to place further pressure on Moscow and reiterated his belief Mr Putin will delay the ceasefire for as long as possible.
“If there is a strong response from the United States, they will not let them play around. And if there are steps that Russia is not afraid of, they will delay the process,” he said.
Mr Zelenskyy said a ceasefire along the more than 1,000km (600-mile) frontline could be controlled with US help through satellites and intelligence – earlier this week Washington resumed intelligence sharing and military aid after Ukraine accepted the ceasefire.
Mr Zelenskyy also said officials at a meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia this week discussed the issue of territory, but a difficult dialogue would be required to resolve it.
“The issue of territories is the most difficult after the ceasefire,” Mr Zelenskyy said.
It comes as Donald Trump said he sees “pretty good vibes coming out of Russia”, and he thinks Moscow will make a deal on the war.
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Ukraine has ‘agreed to ceasefire’
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has left thousands dead and injured, with millions displaced and towns and cities destroyed.
After three years of war Moscow’s forces now control nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory and have been advancing since the middle of last year.
“The ceasefire unblocks the way for the sides to end the war. And the territories… will be the point that makes it
possible to end the war after this issue is resolved,” Mr Zelenskyy said.
The Kremlin has demanded Kyiv permanently cede the territory it has claimed.
Mr Zelenskyy also said he was discussing future security guarantees and economic support with Kyiv’s allies, saying 100% air defence cover would be required as deterrence in a peace deal.
Meanwhile, Mr Putin met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the details of the proposal and has asked him to convey Moscow’s thoughts to Washington, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
It comes ahead of a video call between Sir Keir Starmer and around 25 world leaders on Saturday, in which he will urge them to make concrete commitments to support Ukraine and increase pressure on Mr Putin to accept a ceasefire.
World
Former president of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte appears in court accused of running death squads
Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, has appeared at the International Criminal Court, accused of crimes against humanity.
The 79-year-old appeared in the Netherlands via video link on Friday.
His lawyer said he was suffering from “debilitating medical issues” but the judge in The Hague, Iulia Motoc, said the court doctor had found him to be “fully mentally aware and fit”.
She said he was allowed to appear remotely because he had taken a long flight.
Wearing a jacket and tie, Duterte spoke briefly to confirm his name and date of birth.
He was read his rights and formally informed of the charges. His supporters contest his arrest and say the court does not have jurisdiction.
If convicted, he faces life in prison.
His daughter Sara Duterte, the current vice president of the Philippines, said she was hoping to visit her father and have the hearing moved after meeting supporters outside the court.
Back home in the Philippine capital region, large screens were set up to allow families of suspects killed in the crackdowns to watch the proceedings.
Police protested over the killings when Mr Duterte was still in charge in 2021. Pic: AP
Prosecutors accuse Duterte of forming and arming death squads said to have killed thousands of drug dealers and users during a brutal crackdown on illegal drugs.
Police say more than 6,200 people were killed in what they describe as shootouts while he was president from 2016 to 2022.
They claim he was an “indirect co-perpetrator” in multiple murders, allegedly overseeing killings between November 2011 and March 2019.
Before becoming president, Duterte was the mayor of the southern city of Davao.
According to the prosecution, he issued orders to police and other “hitmen” who formed the so-called “Davao Death Squads” or DDS.
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Why was Duterte arrested?
Estimates of the death toll during his six-year presidential term vary, from more than 6,000 reported by national police, to 30,000 claimed by human rights groups.
The warrant for his arrest said there were “reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Duterte bears criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder”.
Duterte has said he takes full responsibility for the “war on drugs”.
He was arrested on Tuesday amid chaotic scenes in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, after returning from a visit to Hong Kong.
He told officers “you have to kill me to bring me to The Hague” during a 12-hour standoff, a Philippine police general said.
He also refused to have his fingerprints taken and threatened Police Major General Nicolas Torre with lawsuits before he was bundled onto a government-chartered jet at a Philippine air base and taken to The Hague, Maj Gen Torre told the Associated Press.
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Steve Witkoff didn’t stay long in the Russian capital.
According to footage posted of his motorcade leaving and returning to Moscow’s Vnukovo airport, he was here for little more than 12 hours.
And for most of that, it seems, he was left waiting.
Trump’s fixer leaves Moscow – peace talks latest
US special envoy Steve Witkoff talking to reporters at the White House. Pic: AP
Mr Witkoff, a former property mogul who has become Donald Trump’s chief negotiator, and is often referred to as the president’s ‘fixer’, had been dispatched to Moscow to deliver the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to Vladimir Putin.
His visit had been scheduled near the start of the week, following the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.
But after arriving around lunchtime on Thursday, he was left twiddling his thumbs for at least eight hours before being called into the Kremlin.
Mr Putin was apparently too busy meeting someone else – Belarusian leader Aleksander Lukashenko – for a hastily arranged state visit that had been announced the day before.
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Is a ceasefire in Ukraine still viable?
Was ally’s visit a classic Putin power play?
We don’t know for sure if the timing of Mr Lukashenko’s visit was deliberate, but it certainly didn’t feel like a coincidence.
Instead, it felt like a classic Putin power play.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. Pic: Reuters
The Kremlin leader doesn’t like to be backed into a corner and told what to do, especially on his own turf.
This felt like a message to the Americans – “I’m the boss, I set the schedule, and I’m not beholden to anyone”.
He did eventually grant Mr Witkoff that all-important face time, once night had fallen and behind closed-doors.
We don’t know how long they spoke for, nor the exact details of their discussion, but I think we can make a pretty good guess given Mr Putin’s comments earlier in the evening.
At a press conference alongside Mr Lukashenko, he made it abundantly clear that he’ll only sign up to a ceasefire if he gets something in return.
And it’s not just one thing he wants.
All Russia’s red lines remain
By the sounds of things, he still wants everything.
His comment regarding the “root causes” of the conflict suggests all of Russia’s red lines remain – no NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO troops as peacekeepers, and for Russia to keep all the territory it has seized.
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According to Russian media outlet Radio Mayak, Mr Putin’s meetings in the Kremlin finished at 1.30am.
Around half an hour later, Mr Witkoff was back at the airport – leaving Russia, it seems – not with Mr Putin’s agreement but with a list of demands.
It’s now up to Mr Trump to decide what to do next.
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