LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history
The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.
In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.
Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.
More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.
“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.
These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA
Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.
“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.
“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.
The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.
The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.
These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.
At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.
The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.
On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.
The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.
At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.
On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.
Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.
The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.
“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.
“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump has paused US military aid to Ukraine just days after his row with President Zelenskyy.
A White House official, speaking anonymously, said: “President [Trump] has been clear that he is focused on peace.
“We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
There was no indication about the possible length of the pause, and there’s been no comment so far from Ukraine.
It comes after the astonishing clash between the two leaders – as well as vice president Vance – in the Oval Office on Friday.
Donald Trump‘s berating of Mr Zelenskyy has led to a show of support from European leaders as they try to formulate their own way forward.
The US president attacked the Ukrainian leader again on Monday, telling reporters he should be “more appreciative”.
The tens of billion in US aid has included Patriot air defence systems. Pic: Reuters
Writing on Truth Social, Mr Trump also said Mr Zelenskyy had made “the worst statement that could have been made” after he commented that peace was still “very, very far away”.
“America will not put up with it for much longer!” he posted.
“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.
Mr Zelenskyy then posted on X, saying Ukraine was “working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace”.
“Peace is needed as soon as possible,” he said.
Despite the diplomatic crisis, President Trump has said a deal is still possible.
An agreement giving the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth metals was meant to have been signed by the two presidents on Friday.
It was billed as an important step in a future peace deal – and part payback for aid already received.
However, the dramatic falling out has thrown that into jeopardy.
Mr Zelenskyy wants the metals deal to include guarantees on halting Russia should it break the terms of any peace agreement.
However, vice president JD Vance suggested on Monday that the metals pact was the best way to secure a lasting end to the war.
“If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine
again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine,” Mr Vance said.
“That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” he added.
European and world allies – who met the Ukrainian leader in London at the weekend – have discussed a “coalition of the willing” to deploy peacekeepers and deter further Russian aggression.
The prime minister said Britain was prepared to put “boots on the ground and planes in the air” under the plan – but it’s unclear who else might participate.
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How many countries will back Starmer’s plan?
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Keir Starmer told MPs on Monday that Britain must “lead from the front” on supporting Ukraine and the “security of our continent, the security of our country”.
However, the prime minister believes any international deployment of troops must have a US “backstop” deterrent to be taken seriously by Russia.
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Sky News gets rare access to drone launch
America has given around €64bn of military aid to Ukraine, compared with €62bn from European nations (including Britain).
The overall US total is €114bn and the European one €132bn. This includes humanitarian aid and other financial assistance to keep the country running.
Following the weekend summit, the UK also pledged £1.6bn in finance for Ukraine to buy another 5,000 air defence missiles.
Donald Trump has confirmed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, taking effect at 5am UK time on Tuesday.
The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US stocks down sharply.
The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.
Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.
As of 12:01am Eastern Standard Time (5.01am GMT), Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.
And tariffs on Chinese imports will double, raising them from 10% to 20%.
Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.
China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.
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What is America’s trade position?
Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America and sent financial markets reeling.
Markets the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.4% and 1.76% respectively.
The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.
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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.
Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.
Read more:
The effects of Trump trade tariffs explained
Trump hits out at Zelenskyy again
The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.
On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take on effects on all countries that impose duties on US products.
He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.
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