Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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Image: Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Pic: AP
On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
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10:32
Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”
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Rachel Reeves will need to find more than £40bn of tax rises or spending cuts in the autumn budget to meet her fiscal rules, a leading research institute has warned.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government would miss its rule, which stipulates that day to day spending should be covered by tax receipts, by £41.2bn in the fiscal year 2029-30.
In its latest UK economic outlook, NIESR said: “This shortfall significantly increases the pressure on the chancellor to introduce substantial tax rises in the upcoming autumn budget if she hopes to remain compliant with her fiscal rules.”
The deteriorating fiscal picture was blamed on poor economic growth, higher than expected borrowing and a reversal in welfare cuts that could have saved the government £6.25bn.
Together they have created an “impossible trilemma”, NIESR said, with the chancellor simultaneously bound to her fiscal rules, spending commitments, and manifesto pledges that oppose tax hikes.
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1:56
Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?
Reeves told to consider replacing council tax
The institute urged the government to build a larger fiscal buffer through moderate but sustained tax rises.
“This will help allay bond market fears about fiscal sustainability, which may in turn reduce borrowing costs,” it said.
“It will also help to reduce policy uncertainty, which can hit both business and consumer confidence.”
It said that money could be raised by reforms to council tax bands or, in a more radical approach, by replacing the whole council tax system with a land value tax.
To reduce spending pressures, NIESR called for a greater focus on reducing economic inactivity, which could bring down welfare spending.
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1:40
What’s the deal with wealth taxes?
Growth to remain sluggish
The report was released against the backdrop of poor growth, with the chancellor struggling to ignite the economy after two months of declining GDP.
The institute is forecasting modest economic growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. That means Britain will rank mid-table among the G7 group of advanced economies.
‘Things are not looking good’
However, inflation is likely to remain persistent, with the consumer price index (CPI) likely to hit 3.5% in 2025 and around 3% by mid-2026. NIESR blamed sustained wage growth and higher government spending.
It said the Bank of England would cut interest rates twice this year and again at the beginning of next year, taking the rate from 4.25% to 3.5%.
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Persistent inflation is also weighing on living standards: the poorest 10% of UK households saw their living standards fall by 1.3% in 2024-25 compared to the previous year, NIESR said. They are now 10% worse off than they were before the pandemic.
Professor Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at NIESR, said the government faced tough choices ahead: “With growth at only 1.3% and inflation above target, things are not looking good for the chancellor, who will need to either raise taxes or reduce spending or both in the October budget.”
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