The United States “doesn’t have high expectations” for negotiations in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to end the war, America’s top diplomat has admitted.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said he did not think there would be a “breakthrough” in discussions until Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet to discuss it directly.

Russia and Ukraine are preparing to hold their first direct peace talks in three years, but the negotiations will take place in the aftermath of Mr Putin declining Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s offer of an in-person meeting.

It came after Mr Putin proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine over the war “without any preconditions” after the “coalition of the willing” countries threatened Russia with fresh sanctions if it failed to take part in a 30-day ceasefire beginning on Monday. In response Mr Zelenskyy had called on Mr Putin to meet him in Istanbul.

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The Ukrainian president said he was sending a team headed by his defence minister, from the Turkish capital Ankara to Istanbul, to meet the Ukrainian delegation, though he said Moscow’s team did not include “anyone who actually makes decisions”.

Mr Zelenskyy accused Moscow of not taking efforts to end the conflict seriously by sending a low-level negotiating team he described as “a theatre prop”.

Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who is heading Moscow’s delegation, said: “The task of these direct negotiations with Ukraine is to establish long-term peace sooner or later by eliminating the root causes of this conflict.”

He later said he expected Ukraine’s representatives to turn up for the beginning of discussions on Friday morning.

Mr Rubio said he will meet Ukraine’s delegation on Friday, adding: “It’s my assessment that I don’t think we’re going to have a breakthrough here until the president [Mr Trump] and President Putin interact directly on this topic.”

The team sent by Russia “does not indicate a breakthrough”, he said, before going on to say: “I hope tomorrow the news says they’ve agreed a ceasefire. But it’s not my assessment.”

He was echoing remarks made by Mr Trump earlier in the day, when he said: “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.”

Asked if any plans were under way for a meeting between the US and Russian leaders, Mr Rubio said Mr Trump was going to make a decision once his trip to the Middle East finishes.

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Tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed on both sides in the war since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, along with more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, according to the UN.

Russian forces are preparing for a fresh military offensive, Ukrainian government and Western military analysts have warned.

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Sir Keir Starmer accused Mr Putin of “standing in the way of peace”, with the prime minister saying: “There was only one country that started this conflict – that was Russia. That was Putin. There’s only one country now standing in the way of peace – that is Russia, that is Putin.”

A top Iranian official has said the country is prepared to make a number of concessions related to its nuclear programme, in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

It comes as Donald Trump, during his tour of the Middle East, urged Qatar to wield its influence over Iran to persuade it to give up its nuclear programme.

Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke to Sky News’ US partner NBC News.

He said Tehran was willing to commit to never making nuclear weapons again, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, which can be weaponised, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use and allow international inspectors to supervise the process.

This was in exchange for the prospect of the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on the country.

Asked if Iran would sign an agreement today if those conditions were met, Mr Shamkhani told NBC: “Yes.”

His comments are the clearest public indication of what Iran hopes to get out of a deal and their willingness to do one.

“It’s still possible. If the Americans act as they say, for sure we can have better relations,” Mr Shamkhani added.

However, he expressed frustration at continued threats from the US president, describing them as “all barbed wire” and no olive branch.

Similarly, he warned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might try to derail the deal.

Trump goes to the Middle East

Elsewhere, on the second of three stops on his tour of the Middle East, Mr Trump appealed to Qatar for help in the process.

He urged the country to use its influence over Iran to persuade its leadership to reach a deal with the US and dial back its rapidly advancing nuclear programme.

Mr Trump made the comments during a state dinner.

He said: “I hope you can help me with the Iran situation.

“It’s a perilous situation, and we want to do the right thing.”

Over the years, Qatar has played the role of intermediary between the US and Iran and its proxies – including talks with Hamas as its 19-month war with Israel grinds on.

This comes after Mr Trump told a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week that he wants “to make a deal”.

However, he said that as part of any agreement, Iran must end its support of proxy groups throughout the Middle East.

A nuclear Iran

Mr Trump has always said Iran could not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.

While Iran has always denied doing so, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned that Tehran has enough enriched uranium close to weapons-grade quality for nearly six bombs.

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The US and Iran reached a nuclear deal in 2015, under Barack Obama, in which Iran agreed to drastically reduce its stockpile of uranium and limit enriching up to 3.67%.

But Mr Trump scrapped that deal in his first term.

Today, Iran enriches up to 60%, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels.

Washington and Tehran have engaged in four rounds of talks since early April.

Through long, winding roads, we weave through a wonderland. A place of intense beauty, with wide valleys, rushing rivers and terraced hills. The roads are brimming with hand-painted trucks, slowed only by the occasional herd of goats stopping traffic.

We’re entering Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a disputed borderland at the centre of decades of conflict and at the heart of recent escalating tensions with India.

We’re with the Pakistan army on our way to Muzaffarabad, the provincial capital. Few thought this city would be hit in the recent round of strikes, but it was.

Missiles destroyed Bilal Mosque, the roof’s been ripped off, there’s a vast crater in the floor and a huge hole in the ceiling of the prayer room.

Jameel Akhtar is staring into the distance. His 82-year-old father Muhammad was killed in the strike. But he is able to find comfort amid the rubble.

He says: “We are Muslim. My father was martyred in this attack. That’s honour for us. Revenge against India, that is the duty of our armed forces and government and we have full faith in them.”

The Indian government insist this was a terror site with links to Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist group designated as a “terrorist” organisation by the UN Security Council. But the imam of the mosque, Khursheed Ul Hasan, flatly denies that accusation.

“This is an allegation from their side,” he says. “I’ve been here for 17 years and everybody knows me. I am the leader of this mosque. You can see I’m a normal person. I’m not a terrorist.”

What is striking is how close this mosque is to homes and schools. Across a narrow path, I meet Nimra Safeer who was sleeping next to the mosque when the strike came.

She was hit in the chest with shrapnel and says she now can’t sleep. She is desperate to see her government and New Delhi sit down to talk about the enduring issue that plagues this region.

“Children like me who were attacked, our education system was disturbed,” she tells me. “I want to say to India, whatever your issues, we need to sit down and resolve it. Pakistan wants peace and I want Pakistan to talk on the Kashmir issue.”

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Strongmen, religious nationalism and modern warfare in the mix

But she may be waiting a long time. Islamabad sounds emboldened and hopeful after the recent clashes. But India’s leader Narendra Modi is conceding nothing. He’s made clear he doesn’t want a third party like America trying to mediate and he’s made no commitment to formal talks with Pakistan either.

While the world waits to see what the diplomatic shakedown of this moment is, ordinary people on both sides fear their safety net has slipped, the threat a little deeper, a little closer, a little more dangerous now.

There’s strongmen, religious nationalism and modern warfare in the mix and a fragile truce.

School also damaged in strike

In Muzaffarabad, right opposite the mosque, is a school that was also damaged. Thankfully, the children were at home sleeping. But in the cold light of day, you can see their unease and upset.

“Our school is destroyed,” Fatima tells me, her eyes narrowing as she speaks. “I have so much anger. Because we study here. Our principal built this school. They built it for us. But India destroyed it.”

The recent skirmishes may have abated for now. But with them has come more animosity calcifying in these beautiful mountain ranges.

India has made clear its muscular response is part of a “new normal” when responding to terror. Pakistan sounds like it feels it’s scored a win against the odds. That’s a defiant dynamic that could easily unravel.

Could pressure from a third party like America signal a sudden shift in this enduring conflict? Right now, that seems unlikely. But this week has been full of surprises.