Elon Musk misrepresents data that shows Tesla is still years away from unsupervised self-driving
Elon Musk is praising data that he claims shows Tesla is on the verge of achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving, when in fact, it shows it is still years away and he is misrepresenting it.
It’s hard to take Musk seriously when it comes to self-driving timelines because he has been so consistently wrong for years.
Some argue that you can’t hold that against him, even though he uses his claims to sell cars and sell “Full Self-Driving” packages for up to $15,000, because it is such a difficult and important thing to achieve.
Even if you agree with this argument, there are clear problems with Musk’s claims regarding Tesla’s progress and timelines toward unsupervised self-driving.
The biggest one is data.
Tesla has consistently refused to share any data regarding its self-driving progress. That’s despite more recently starting to use “miles between necessary disengagement”, sometimes called “miles between critical disengagement”, as a metric to track progress and claiming x multiplicators in miles between critical disengagement in recent updates without any actual data to back it up.
A recent example was Musk hyping Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software updates 12.4 and 12.5 by claiming they will be able to drive “5 to 10x more miles per intervention“.
Again, Tesla never released any data to back this up, but we have some crowdsourced data that pointed to FSD 12.5 achieving 183 miles (all versions combined excluding testers with fewer than 50 miles) between critical disengagement. Musk never specified the “5 to 10x” improvement was compared to what version, but if we compared it against the last update, FSD 12.3, miles between critical disengagement went down from 228 miles.
There are no prior versions of Tesla FSD over the last 3 years that would add up to a 3x improvement in miles between critical disengagement. We can forget about “5 to 10x.”
Now, Tesla has upgraded to FSD v13 and Musk again claims that it will “blow people’s mind.”
The automaker claimed that v13 would bring “5 to 6x improved miles between necessary interventions” compared to v12.5.
That means that Tesla anticipated FSD v13 to achieve between 915 and 1,098 miles between critical disengagement based on the crowdsourced data.
Currently, after over 8,000 miles of crowdsourced data, FSD v13 is at 493 miles between critical disengagement:
That’s a 2.7x improvement. It’s significant, but it is also a significant miss compared to what Tesla predicted.
Now, Elon and Tesla fans like to claim that this crowdsourced data is flawed and that Tesla FSD is actually performing better.
The data is indeed limited, but it is the best we have by far since Tesla refuses to share its own data. I have often fought against this accusation both because it is undoubtedly the best data available and because Elon Musk himself referred to this specific crowdsourced data in the past.
Now, he has done it again and he did it to claim “exponential improvement” in Tesla’s FSD performance, but it is grossly misleading:
This data only refers to highway miles and Tesla has been operating the same highway stack for years. The city driving software stack is different and based on “end-to-end neural nets”. The automaker kept promising to update it, but it barely ever did – leading to the stagnation you see in this chart.
Tesla worked on this update for years, but it actually wasn’t released in v13. It came in v12.5.6.1. If we take all the v12 updates after this one, the average on highway was already 393 miles:
This is no indication of “exponential improvement”. It is merely Tesla finally releasing a long overdue update to its highway software stack after working on the city software stack for the past 2 years.
Furthermore, if we can take this acknowledgment from Musk that this data is representative of Tesla FSD performance, which should be the case otherwise it would be greatly misleading for him to share it, it shows that Tesla is still years away from achieving unsupervised self-driving despite Musk saying it will happen in “q2 2025”, which is months away.
Ashok Elluswamy, the head of FSD at Tesla, has previously stated that for Tesla to enable unsupervised self-driving, Tesla needs to achieve the average in miles per critical intervention “equivalent of human miles between collision,” which stands at 670,000 miles, according to NHTSA.
Therefore, based on this data shared by Musk, Tesla needs to go from 493 miles between disengegament to 670,000 miles between disengagement within the next 5 months.
Electrek’s Take
I’m no hater. I’m a realist. Without patting myself too much on the back, you have to give me some credit for predicting this with v13. After Tesla’s AI team released the planned improvements coming with v13, I reported that I could see it achieve close to “690 to 828 miles between critical disengagement.”
But then I reported that v13 would result in improvements but come short of that goal after v13 was delayed by a few months and then released with a somewhat dumb-down version.
Now, it ends up at 493 miles between disengagement. It makes sense. It is an impressive improvement, but it is also far short of what Tesla said would happen and still hundreds of thousands of miles away from what Tesla itself said it needs to be to achieve unsupervised self-driving.
Not only that, but Elon is now misrepresenting the data to claim Tesla has achieved exponential growth without no evidence whatsoever.
He is purposely only looking at highway data, which is misleading because the stack was barely updated for years.
I think it’s clear that Elon either lies about self-driving or he has no idea what he is talking about, which somehow doesn’t stop him from confidently making statements that happen to help Tesla sell cars. It’s not suspicious at all.
Again, I liked to point out that I believe that if Tesla was developing FSD in a vacuum without Elon Musk making claims about Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving on x timeline, making “Tesla vehicles appreciating assets”, and then using this to sell cars and $15,000 self-driving packages, I think that Tesla’s FSd development would be celebrated.
Instead, it is vastly seen as a fraud by many people. That’s Elon Musk’s fault.
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Environment
Trump approves U.S. Steel merger with Japan’s Nippon after companies sign national security agreement
European EV charging provider Allego has launched what is says is Europe’s first rollout of the “world’s safest and most secure” Plug & Charge technology.
The new tech is based on the open industry standard OCPP 2.0.1 and promises to make EV charging as easy as, well, plugging in your car. Forget apps, cards, and complicated sign-ins. If your EV is compatible, all you have to do is pull up and plug in.
Jean Gadrat, Allego’s CMO, said, “By removing digital friction points, apps, and cards, we give drivers the confidence to travel further and charge more conveniently. Whether in the city, on the highway, or abroad, Plug & Charge delivers the same secure, one-step charging experience.”
Here’s how Allego’s Plug & Charge works
Plug & Charge is an ISO 15118-based authentication and payment method built by Allego on OCPP 2.0.1, standardizing communication between OCPP-compliant chargers and networks.
Once your car is enabled for Plug & Charge, the process is completely hands-off. You plug in, and your EV and the charger swap secure digital certificates to authenticate your account. There’s no need to tap an RFID card, open an app, or even press a button.
Allego’s system supports Mutual TLS encryption and certificate-based authentication, so only authorized vehicles can charge. That means no billing mistakes or fraudulent access, which has been a big concern with some older public charging setups.
Available across Europe now
Allego’s Plug & Charge functionality is at more than 5,000 fast and ultra-fast chargers across Europe, and it also works across partner networks, deploying a truly cross-network Plug & Charge experience.
It’s a future-ready platform, too. Thanks to OCPP 2.0.1, the protocol supports remote firmware updates, advanced security, and new features as they become available. So your charger can grow along with your EV.
“As new vehicle models and charging technologies emerge, OCPP 2.0.1 ensures your car always ‘speaks the same language’ as the charger,” said Manuel Trotta, Allego’s head of mobility solutions.
Allego partnered with Alpitronic, Hubject, and Ford to bring its cross-network Plug & Charge to life.
Read more: Waffle House is getting DC fast chargers – and it’s a genius move
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Environment
The Kia PV5 is a real-life Transformer: Here’s our first look at it as an electric truck
Kia is looking to shake things up with its new custom-tailored Platform Beyond Vehicles (PBVs). The PV5, Kia’s first electric van based on the platform, is already showing how versatile it is. After the PV5 was spotted for the first time with an open bed, Kia looks about ready to drop an electric truck variant.
Is Kia launching an electric truck PV5 variant?
At the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Kia revealed its PBV strategy for the first time. The vehicles are designed as “total mobility solutions” that combine fit-for-purpose EVs with Hyundai’s latest software and tech.
Kia’s PBVs are based on Hyundai’s new ultra-flexible E-GMP.S EV platform, which can be custom-tailored for different uses. The first EV based on the platform, the PV5, launched earlier this year in the UK in two variations, Cargo and Passenger.
The Passenger model is fairly self-explanatory as a personal, everyday van, while the Cargo version is designed for commercial use.
Kia said more variants were on the way, including a refrigerated truck, chassis cab, open-bed, luxury “Prime” passenger, and sliding truck models.
The open-bed variant was recently captured driving in Korea, giving us our first look at the Kia PV5 as an electric truck.
Although brief, the video from HealerTV, taken as the vehicle was driving by, reveals a few new details. It’s our closest look at the open-bed variant so far.
Like other PV5 variants, it appears to be the same up front. In fact, it’s almost identical to the first teaser Kia showed.
It’s hard to tell from a video, but the reporter mentioned the electric truck “seemed like it was just the right size.” Since the PV5 Passenger is 4,695 mm in length, 1,895 mm in width, and 1,899 mm in height, we can expect it to be about the same size. To give you a better idea, it’s slightly smaller than the Volkswagen ID.Buzz SWB.
More variants on the way
The electric truck, or open-bed variant, comes after we saw the PV5 “Conversion,” which will feature new models, including a light camper and a camper van.
We got a preview of the camper van after Kia revealed two new “Spielraum” PV5 concepts, including one with a refrigerator, microwave oven, and even a wine cellar. And then we got a look at the PV5 “WKNDR,” an “adventure-ready” electric van concept. Kia’s electric van even has a wheelchair-friendly version, the PV5 WAV.
What’s next? Kia plans to launch a full range of electric vans. Next up will be the larger PV7 in 2027, followed by the PV9 in 2029. There’s also a smaller PV1, expected to arrive in late 2026 or early 2027.
In the future, Kia plans ot launch a Robotaxi model through a collaboration with Motional. All PBV models will be built at Kia’s Hwaseong EVO plant in South Korea. The facility can build up to 150,000 vehicles annually.
Kia said its goal is to “design PBVs that are simple and intuitive to operate and engage with, regardless of where, when or how they are used.” In other words, Kia wants to make your life easier, “Whether the purpose of the vehicle is to transport people, move goods, or meet logistics or personal mobility needs.”
In the UK, the PV5 Passenger and Cargo models start at £32,995 ($44,000) and £27,645 ($37,000), respectively.
It’s available with two battery pack options: 51.5 kWh or 71.2 kWh, offering WLTP ranges of 179 miles and 249 miles, respectively. The Cargo version gets slightly more range with 181 miles or 247 miles, respectively.
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