Elon Musk misrepresents data that shows Tesla is still years away from unsupervised self-driving
Elon Musk is praising data that he claims shows Tesla is on the verge of achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving, when in fact, it shows it is still years away and he is misrepresenting it.
It’s hard to take Musk seriously when it comes to self-driving timelines because he has been so consistently wrong for years.
Some argue that you can’t hold that against him, even though he uses his claims to sell cars and sell “Full Self-Driving” packages for up to $15,000, because it is such a difficult and important thing to achieve.
Even if you agree with this argument, there are clear problems with Musk’s claims regarding Tesla’s progress and timelines toward unsupervised self-driving.
The biggest one is data.
Tesla has consistently refused to share any data regarding its self-driving progress. That’s despite more recently starting to use “miles between necessary disengagement”, sometimes called “miles between critical disengagement”, as a metric to track progress and claiming x multiplicators in miles between critical disengagement in recent updates without any actual data to back it up.
A recent example was Musk hyping Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software updates 12.4 and 12.5 by claiming they will be able to drive “5 to 10x more miles per intervention“.
Again, Tesla never released any data to back this up, but we have some crowdsourced data that pointed to FSD 12.5 achieving 183 miles (all versions combined excluding testers with fewer than 50 miles) between critical disengagement. Musk never specified the “5 to 10x” improvement was compared to what version, but if we compared it against the last update, FSD 12.3, miles between critical disengagement went down from 228 miles.
There are no prior versions of Tesla FSD over the last 3 years that would add up to a 3x improvement in miles between critical disengagement. We can forget about “5 to 10x.”
Now, Tesla has upgraded to FSD v13 and Musk again claims that it will “blow people’s mind.”
The automaker claimed that v13 would bring “5 to 6x improved miles between necessary interventions” compared to v12.5.
That means that Tesla anticipated FSD v13 to achieve between 915 and 1,098 miles between critical disengagement based on the crowdsourced data.
Currently, after over 8,000 miles of crowdsourced data, FSD v13 is at 493 miles between critical disengagement:
That’s a 2.7x improvement. It’s significant, but it is also a significant miss compared to what Tesla predicted.
Now, Elon and Tesla fans like to claim that this crowdsourced data is flawed and that Tesla FSD is actually performing better.
The data is indeed limited, but it is the best we have by far since Tesla refuses to share its own data. I have often fought against this accusation both because it is undoubtedly the best data available and because Elon Musk himself referred to this specific crowdsourced data in the past.
Now, he has done it again and he did it to claim “exponential improvement” in Tesla’s FSD performance, but it is grossly misleading:
This data only refers to highway miles and Tesla has been operating the same highway stack for years. The city driving software stack is different and based on “end-to-end neural nets”. The automaker kept promising to update it, but it barely ever did – leading to the stagnation you see in this chart.
Tesla worked on this update for years, but it actually wasn’t released in v13. It came in v12.5.6.1. If we take all the v12 updates after this one, the average on highway was already 393 miles:
This is no indication of “exponential improvement”. It is merely Tesla finally releasing a long overdue update to its highway software stack after working on the city software stack for the past 2 years.
Furthermore, if we can take this acknowledgment from Musk that this data is representative of Tesla FSD performance, which should be the case otherwise it would be greatly misleading for him to share it, it shows that Tesla is still years away from achieving unsupervised self-driving despite Musk saying it will happen in “q2 2025”, which is months away.
Ashok Elluswamy, the head of FSD at Tesla, has previously stated that for Tesla to enable unsupervised self-driving, Tesla needs to achieve the average in miles per critical intervention “equivalent of human miles between collision,” which stands at 670,000 miles, according to NHTSA.
Therefore, based on this data shared by Musk, Tesla needs to go from 493 miles between disengegament to 670,000 miles between disengagement within the next 5 months.
Electrek’s Take
I’m no hater. I’m a realist. Without patting myself too much on the back, you have to give me some credit for predicting this with v13. After Tesla’s AI team released the planned improvements coming with v13, I reported that I could see it achieve close to “690 to 828 miles between critical disengagement.”
But then I reported that v13 would result in improvements but come short of that goal after v13 was delayed by a few months and then released with a somewhat dumb-down version.
Now, it ends up at 493 miles between disengagement. It makes sense. It is an impressive improvement, but it is also far short of what Tesla said would happen and still hundreds of thousands of miles away from what Tesla itself said it needs to be to achieve unsupervised self-driving.
Not only that, but Elon is now misrepresenting the data to claim Tesla has achieved exponential growth without no evidence whatsoever.
He is purposely only looking at highway data, which is misleading because the stack was barely updated for years.
I think it’s clear that Elon either lies about self-driving or he has no idea what he is talking about, which somehow doesn’t stop him from confidently making statements that happen to help Tesla sell cars. It’s not suspicious at all.
Again, I liked to point out that I believe that if Tesla was developing FSD in a vacuum without Elon Musk making claims about Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving on x timeline, making “Tesla vehicles appreciating assets”, and then using this to sell cars and $15,000 self-driving packages, I think that Tesla’s FSd development would be celebrated.
Instead, it is vastly seen as a fraud by many people. That’s Elon Musk’s fault.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Japanese oil giant, Idemitsu Kosan, is building a new large-scale lithium sulfide plant that will supply the raw material for Toyota’s upcoming all-solid-state EV batteries.
New plant will supply Toyota’s all-solid-state EV batteries
Toyota has been promising to launch all-solid-state EV batteries for years, but those plans may finally be coming together.
Idemitsu announced on Thursday it will build a large-scale production plant for lithium sulfide, a raw material used in all-solid-state EV batteries.
All-solid-state batteries, often called the “holy grail” of EV battery tech, promise to deliver drastic improvements in driving range, charging speeds, and energy density. As the name implies, they feature a solid electrolyte rather than traditional lithium-ion batteries, which contain a liquid electrolyte.
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has already approved the planned construction site. It will cost around 21.3 billion yen ($142 million) and was deemed as a “plan for ensuring supply of storage batteries.”
Idemitsu aims to mass produce all-solid state batteries in 2027 and 2028. The plant will be able to produce 1,000 metric tons of lithium sulphide annually.
The company’s executive officer Tetsuji Mishina told the media (via Reuters) at its oil refinery in China, where it will build the new facility.
Mishina also said Toyota would be its first customer before it plans to expand to others later. Toyota and Idemitsu have been working together since 2023 to develop solid electrolytes for the mass production of all-solid-state EV batteries.
The new plant is another step in the right direction, part of Idemitsu and Toyota’s plans to commercialize all-solid-state EV batteries in 2027 to 2028.
In September, Toyota was granted a METI certification, which gave it the green light to build the new batteries in Japan.
The approval comes as Japan looks to wean itself off dependence on China or South Korea for batteries and establish a stable local supply chain. Toyota and Idemitsu are among several leading Japanese companies investing a combined $7 billion (1 trillion yen) in domestic battery production.
Electrek’s Take
Will Toyota actually launch EVs powered by all-solid-state batteries? They have been touting the new battery tech for years, but it seems to have made some progress recently.
Meanwhile, others are already getting a head start. Mercedes-Benz began testing the “world’s first” production EV powered by solid-state batteries earlier this month.
Through its partnership with US-based Factorial Energy and Mercedes AMG High-Performance Powertrains (HPP), the company tested a slightly modified EQS with over 621 miles of driving range. Mercedes said it was “the first car powered by a lithium-metal solid-state battery on the road.”
Factorial is working with other major OEMs, including Stellantis. Next year, Stellantis plans to launch a series of electric Dodge Chargers powered by Factorials solid-state batteries.
Honda, Hyundai, and let’s not forget global battery leaders CATL and BYD, are also racing to launch the promising new battery tech.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Environment
Tesla is hit with a fresh class action about its self-driving claims, hardware 3 computer
Tesla is hit with a fresh class action lawsuit about the performance and claims of its self-driving and Autopilot systems as well as its “hardware 3 computer.”
The automaker is already facing dozens of lawsuits over its self-driving claims, crashes using advanced driver assist systems, alledged breaches of fiduciary duties from its CEO and board members, but now ou can add another one to the list.
In Australia, law firms Woodsford and JGA Saddler organized a class action in the Federal Court of Australia against Tesla Motors Australia Pty Ltd (Tesla Australia) and Tesla, Inc. (Tesla US) “alleging that Tesla Australia marketed and sold motor vehicles manufactured by Tesla US that were defective.”
The firms are currently recruiting people who purchased or leased a Tesla Model 3 or Y vehicle in Australia between May 2021 and February 2025.
They are going after Tesla over three specific issues. When it comes to the alleged defect, they are focusing on the phantom breaking issues when using Tesla’s FSD and Autopilot features:
Tesla vehicles have the propensity to autonomously engage automatic emergency braking abruptly in inappropriate circumstances, leading to a risk of collisions.
Another focus of the lawsuit is the discrepancy between the advertised and real range in its vehicles:
They lack the ability to achieve, or come close to achieving, the advertised maximum range or the range displayed on the vehicle’s dashboard when the battery level is greater than 50%.
Finally, the lawsuit is also going after Tesla for claiming that all its vehicles produced since 2016 have the hardware capable of self-driving:
Despite statements or representations to the contrary, the hardware on Tesla vehicles is incapable of supporting fully autonomous or close to autonomous driving.
This lawsuit comes after CEO Elon Musk finally recently admitted that its Hardware 3 self-driving computer (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised self-driving.
It’s the first known lawsuit about this issue since the CEO admitted the situation.
Tesla has already been having issues selling vehicles in Australia recently. Tesla’s sales were down 17% in the country last year and 33% in the first month of 2025.
Electrek’s Take
I would expect to see a lot of these lawsuits pop up against Tesla in the coming months, especially about HW3 now that Elon admitted that it won’t be capable of unsupervised self-driving as promised.
He did say that Tesla would offer retrofits for people who bought the FSD package, and that’s enough for his fans, but I doubt it will hold in court.
The way I see it, Tesla used the claim that “all cars produced since 2016 have the hardware capable of self-driving” to see these vehicles whether or not people bought the self-driving software package. Buyers who believed Tesla’s claim expected their cars to hold better value because of that, and it never happened.
Tesla could very well have to compensate every single person who bought vehicles from them.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Xiaomi’s first electric vehicle, the SU7, took the market by storm, securing nearly 250,000 orders in just nine months. Today, the company launched a new flagship variant with over 1,500 hp, starting at under $75,000. Meet the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra.
Xiaomi launches new flagship SU7 Ultra EV variant
In less than a year, Xiaomi’s first EV has become one of the hottest sellers in China. The SU7 hit the market last March and in just nine months, the electric sedan secured nearly 250,000 locked-in orders.
During its product launch event on Thursday, Xiaomi’s CEO, Lei Jun, announced the company had delivered over 135,000 SU7s by the end of 2024.
The sleek electric sedan starts at 215,900 yuan, or just under $30,000. At the event, Xiaomi launched its new flagship “Ultra” SU7 variant.
Hitting the market at just 529,900 yuan ($73,000) on Thursday, the SU7 Ultra is actually much cheaper than expected.
Powered by three electric motors, packing up to 1,526 horsepower, the high-performance EV can sprint from 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) in just 1.98 seconds. After it went on pre-sale last October for 814,900 yuan ($112,000), the Ultra model went viral, securing 3,680 pre-orders in just 10 minutes.
That same month, an SU7 prototype claimed the title as the fastest four-door sedan at the famous Nurburgring race track in Germany.
At 5,115 mm long, 1,970 mm wide, and 1,465 mm tall, Xiaomi’s SU7 is about the size of the Porsche Taycan Turbo GT.
The flagship variant features CATL’s Qilin 2.0 battery pack, which has a 93.7 kWh capacity and can provide a CLTC cruising range of up to 385 miles (620 km).
Lei announced on Weibo that the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has already received over 6,900 orders. The company will begin deliveries in April and aim to deliver 10,000 models.
In 2025, Xiaomi expects to deliver around 300,000 vehicles. This would be a massive accomplishment, given that it started selling cars less than a year ago.
The SU7 wasn’t the only product to get a new “Ultra” edition. Xiaomi, one of China’s largest smartphone makers, launched the new Xiaomi 15 Ultra, starting at 6,499 yuan ($893).
Lei said buyers that place a deposit before March 31 will receive benefits worth up to 90,000 yuan ($12,400), including 15 pieces of carbon fiber (including the rear wing) and their choice of interior design. The offer includes Xiaomi’s full-scenario end-to-end intelligent driving system, free delivery, and more.
Electrek’s Take
For those that don’t remember, the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was the Chinese EV Ford’s CEO Jim Farley drove after shipping one from Shanghai to Chicago last year.
Farley called the electric car “fantastic” on the Fully Charged Podcast, and even said he “doesn’t want to give it up.”
According to Ford’s CEO, Xiaomi is an “industry juggernaut” and a brand “that’s much stronger than car companies.”One thing is for sure, Xiaomi will be a brand to keep an eye on as China’s electric car market expands into overseas territory.
Source: CarNewsChina, Xiaomi
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports11 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway