Reform within touching distance of Labour as poll suggests ‘new era’ for British politics
Reform UK has grown in support to within one percentage point of Labour according to a new poll for Sky News by YouGov which suggests Britain has entered a new era of three-way party politics.
Sir Keir Starmer looks set to spend the parliament locked in a fight with two right-wing parties after Labour support dropped sharply in the first YouGov poll since the general election.
The poll shows the Tories have now been pushed into third place – two months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader.
The data collected over the weekend puts Labour on 26%, Reform UK on 25%, Conservatives on 22%, Liberal Democrats on 14% and Greens on 8%.
This is a huge switch from the general election, when Labour was on 35%, Conservatives on 24%, Reform UK on 15%, Lib Dem on 13% and Greens on 7%.
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This is the first of YouGov’s weekly voting intention polls for Sky News, shared with The Times.
It reflects a drop in satisfaction with the government, a rise in support for Reform UK, and shows how the Labour vote has split in all directions since the election.
Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election – 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories – while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.
Reform UK’s vote has grown since the general election at the expense of all other parties, with 16% of voters who backed the Tories at the ballot last year now saying they’d support Reform.
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The judgement on Sir Keir’s first six months in office is damning, however.
Some 10% say the government has been successful while 60% say unsuccessful.
Older voters have turned away from Labour. Just 14% of over 65s would now vote Labour, down from 22% around the time of the election.
However, there are signs the Tory party remains a toxic brand. Reform UK are the least unpopular party, with a net favourability rating of -32, Labour a touch worse on -34 and the Tories down on -45.
YouGov interviewed 2,279 voters in Great Britain on Sunday 12 January and Monday 13 January.
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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget
Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
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Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.
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