A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel brings hope, but there’s still great uncertainty about whether deal can last
In a region bereft of hope, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a flicker of possibility – but make no mistake, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about the deal.
If all goes well, the violence in Gaza which has ravaged the enclave for 467 long and brutal days will halt and hopefully lead to a better future.
However, the question remains – just how likely is the ceasefire deal to succeed in the long term?
Ceasefire deal latest: Dozens reported dead in Gaza strikes
The agreement will in the short term offer at least a pause from the fighting. It’s perhaps better to look at it in that context, as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.
More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.
Israel launched its response after around 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023.
For Israel, the deal in the first phase will see the release of 33 hostages who have been held inside the strip since they were kidnapped that day.
The first phase of the ceasefire will see 33 Israeli hostages released. Pic: Reuters
It is not lost on anyone though how difficult it’s been – after many false starts – to get to this point.
The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and there’s a sense that it’s been left that way to simply get it across the line and started.
Much could still go wrong and there are more questions than there are answers.
Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it can have no place in post-war Gaza.
However, as an entity and fighting force, it is diminished but far from defeated.
It will almost certainly not give up power easily.
Read more:
What’s in the ceasefire deal?
World will be watching – this ceasefire could yet collapse
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Gazans celebrate ceasefire deal
It is this ambiguity that raises the terrifying spectre that the fighting could start up again at any point – many of the main issues remain unresolved.
For instance, we still don’t know who will run Gaza in the longer term.
The international community’s answer to that is a reformed Palestinian authority but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that that’s not acceptable to Israel – neither is any role for Hamas.
As far as mediators are concerned, it seems there’s a hope that the deal can commence and then, over the six weeks of the first phase, more negotiations can take place – and hopefully, faith on both sides can be created to bring around a permanent ceasefire.
But if all of that collapses we could see a return to the violence.
There are also domestic considerations inside Israel – the deal in some respects is all things to all men.
It means Netanyahu can present it as both temporary or permanent, depending on who he’s speaking to or trying to appease.
But on an optimistic note, it does mean that as long as the negotiations continue, there’s no fighting.
People protesting against the ceasefire deal in Jerusalem. Pic: Reuters
More broadly it’s also worth bearing in mind that over the years there have been numerous attempts at ceasefire deals – most of which have ultimately failed to bring long-lasting peace to the region.
This pattern of repeated failures raises doubts about the likelihood of success this time.
Both sides have a long history of mistrust and animosity.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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