A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel brings hope, but there’s still great uncertainty about whether deal can last

Published

6 months ago

January 16, 2025

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In a region bereft of hope, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a flicker of possibility – but make no mistake, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about the deal.

If all goes well, the violence in Gaza which has ravaged the enclave for 467 long and brutal days will halt and hopefully lead to a better future.

However, the question remains – just how likely is the ceasefire deal to succeed in the long term?

Ceasefire deal latest: Dozens reported dead in Gaza strikes

The agreement will in the short term offer at least a pause from the fighting. It’s perhaps better to look at it in that context, as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.

More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.

Israel launched its response after around 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023.

For Israel, the deal in the first phase will see the release of 33 hostages who have been held inside the strip since they were kidnapped that day.

It is not lost on anyone though how difficult it’s been – after many false starts – to get to this point.

The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and there’s a sense that it’s been left that way to simply get it across the line and started.

Much could still go wrong and there are more questions than there are answers.

Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it can have no place in post-war Gaza.

However, as an entity and fighting force, it is diminished but far from defeated.

It will almost certainly not give up power easily.

It is this ambiguity that raises the terrifying spectre that the fighting could start up again at any point – many of the main issues remain unresolved.

For instance, we still don’t know who will run Gaza in the longer term.

The international community’s answer to that is a reformed Palestinian authority but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that that’s not acceptable to Israel – neither is any role for Hamas.

As far as mediators are concerned, it seems there’s a hope that the deal can commence and then, over the six weeks of the first phase, more negotiations can take place – and hopefully, faith on both sides can be created to bring around a permanent ceasefire.

But if all of that collapses we could see a return to the violence.

There are also domestic considerations inside Israel – the deal in some respects is all things to all men.

It means Netanyahu can present it as both temporary or permanent, depending on who he’s speaking to or trying to appease.

But on an optimistic note, it does mean that as long as the negotiations continue, there’s no fighting.

More broadly it’s also worth bearing in mind that over the years there have been numerous attempts at ceasefire deals – most of which have ultimately failed to bring long-lasting peace to the region.

This pattern of repeated failures raises doubts about the likelihood of success this time.

Both sides have a long history of mistrust and animosity.

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At least 30 dead and 100 injured as armed groups clash in Syria, officials say

Published

9 hours ago

July 14, 2025

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At least 30 dead and 100 injured as armed groups clash in Syria, officials say

At least 30 people have been killed in the Syrian city of Sweida in clashes between local military groups and tribes, according to Syria’s interior ministry.

Officials say initial figures suggest around 100 people have also been injured in the city, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups.

The interior ministry said its forces will directly intervene to resolve the conflict, which the Reuters news agency said involved fighting between Druze gunmen and Bedouin Sunni tribes.

It marks the latest episode of sectarian violence in Syria, where fears among minority groups have increased since Islamist-led rebels toppled President Bashar al Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces.

The violence reportedly erupted after a wave of kidnappings, including the abduction of a Druze merchant on Friday on the highway linking Damascus to Sweida.

Last April, Sunni militia clashed with armed Druze residents of Jaramana, southeast of Damascus, and fighting later spread to another district near the capital.

But this is the first time the fighting has been reported inside the city of Sweida itself, the provincial capital of the mostly Druze province.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports the fighting was centred in the Maqwas neighbourhood east of Sweida and villages on the western and northern outskirts of the city.

It adds that Syria’s Ministry of Defence has deployed military convoys to the area.

Western nations, including the US and UK, have been increasingly moving towards normalising relations with Syria.

Concerns among minority groups have intensified following the killing of hundreds of Alawites in March, in apparent retaliation for an earlier attack carried out by Assad loyalists.

That was the deadliest sectarian flare-up in years in Syria, where a 14-year civil war ended with Assad fleeing to Russia after his government was overthrown by rebel forces.

The city of Sweida is in southern Syria, about 24 miles (38km) north of the border with Jordan.

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Meredith Kercher’s killer faces new trial over sexual assault allegations

Published

21 hours ago

July 13, 2025

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Meredith Kercher's killer faces new trial over sexual assault allegations

The man convicted of the murder of British student Meredith Kercher has been charged with sexual assault against an ex-girlfriend.

Rudy Guede, 38, was the only person who was definitively convicted of the murder of 21-year-old Ms Kercher in Perugia, Italy, back in 2007.

He will be standing trial again in November after an ex-girlfriend filed a police report in the summer of 2023 accusing Guede of mistreatment, personal injury and sexual violence.

Guede, from the Ivory Coast, was released from prison for the murder of Leeds University student Ms Kercher in 2021, after having served about 13 years of a 16-year sentence.

Since last year – when this investigation was still ongoing – Guede has been under a “special surveillance” regime, Sky News understands, meaning he was banned from having any contact with the woman behind the sexual assault allegations, including via social media, and had to inform police any time he left his city of residence, Viterbo, as ruled by a Rome court.

Guede has been serving a restraining order and fitted with an electronic ankle tag.

The Kercher murder case, in the university city of Perugia, was the subject of international attention.

Ms Kercher, a 21-year-old British exchange student, was found murdered in the flat she shared with her American roommate, Amanda Knox.

The Briton’s throat had been cut and she had been stabbed 47 times.

Ms Knox and her then-boyfriend, Raffaele Sollecito, were placed under suspicion.

Both were initially convicted of murder, but Italy’s highest court overturned their convictions, acquitting them in 2015.

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IDF blames ‘technical error’ after Gaza officials say children collecting water killed in strike

Published

24 hours ago

July 13, 2025

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IDF blames 'technical error' after Gaza officials say children collecting water killed in strike

The Israeli military says it missed its intended target after Gaza officials said 10 Palestinians – including six children – were killed in a strike at a water collection point.

Another 17 people were wounded in the strike on a water distribution point in Nuseirat refugee camp, said Ahmed Abu Saifan, an emergency physician at Al Awda Hospital.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it had intended to hit an Islamic Jihad militant but a “technical error with the munition” had caused the missile to fall “dozens of metres from the target”.

The IDF said the incident is under review, adding that it “works to mitigate harm to uninvolved civilians as much as possible” and “regrets any harm to uninvolved civilians”.

Officials at Al Awda Hospital said it received 10 bodies after the Israeli strike on the water collection point and six children were among the dead.

Ramadan Nassar, who lives in the area, said around 20 children and 14 adults were lined up Sunday morning to fill up water.

When the strike occurred, everyone ran and some, including those who were severely injured, fell to the ground, he said.

In total, 19 people were killed in Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, local health officials said.

Two women and three children were among nine killed after an Israeli strike on a home in the central town of Zawaida, officials at Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital said.

Israel has claimed it hit more than 150 targets in the besieged enclave in the past day.

The latest strikes come after the Israel military opened fire near an aid centre in Rafah on Saturday. The Red Cross said 31 people were killed.

The IDF has said it fired “warning shots” near the aid distribution site but it was “not aware of injured individuals” as a result.

The war in Gaza started in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage.

More than 58,000 Palestinians have since been killed, with more than half being women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

US President Donald Trump has said he is closing in on another ceasefire agreement that would see more hostages released and potentially wind down the war.

But after two days of talks this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there were no signs of a breakthrough, as a new sticking point emerged over the deployment of Israeli troops during the truce.

Hamas still holds 50 hostages, with fewer than half of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.