In a region bereft of hope, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a flicker of possibility – but make no mistake, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about the deal.
If all goes well, the violence in Gaza which has ravaged the enclave for 467 long and brutal days will halt and hopefully lead to a better future.
However, the question remains – just how likely is the ceasefire deal to succeed in the long term?
The agreement will in the short term offer at least a pause from the fighting. It’s perhaps better to look at it in that context, as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.
More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.
Israel launched its response after around 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023.
For Israel, the deal in the first phase will see the release of 33 hostages who have been held inside the strip since they were kidnapped that day.
Image: The first phase of the ceasefire will see 33 Israeli hostages released. Pic: Reuters
It is not lost on anyone though how difficult it’s been – after many false starts – to get to this point.
The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and there’s a sense that it’s been left that way to simply get it across the line and started.
Much could still go wrong and there are more questions than there are answers.
Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it can have no place in post-war Gaza.
However, as an entity and fighting force, it is diminished but far from defeated.
It will almost certainly not give up power easily.
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Gazans celebrate ceasefire deal
It is this ambiguity that raises the terrifying spectre that the fighting could start up again at any point – many of the main issues remain unresolved.
For instance, we still don’t know who will run Gaza in the longer term.
The international community’s answer to that is a reformed Palestinian authority but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that that’s not acceptable to Israel – neither is any role for Hamas.
As far as mediators are concerned, it seems there’s a hope that the deal can commence and then, over the six weeks of the first phase, more negotiations can take place – and hopefully, faith on both sides can be created to bring around a permanent ceasefire.
But if all of that collapses we could see a return to the violence.
There are also domestic considerations inside Israel – the deal in some respects is all things to all men.
It means Netanyahu can present it as both temporary or permanent, depending on who he’s speaking to or trying to appease.
But on an optimistic note, it does mean that as long as the negotiations continue, there’s no fighting.
Image: People protesting against the ceasefire deal in Jerusalem. Pic: Reuters
More broadly it’s also worth bearing in mind that over the years there have been numerous attempts at ceasefire deals – most of which have ultimately failed to bring long-lasting peace to the region.
This pattern of repeated failures raises doubts about the likelihood of success this time.
Both sides have a long history of mistrust and animosity.
The Russian president thinks he’s winning this war, and it’s hard to escape the conclusion that he’s using diplomacy to play for time while he carries on beating down the Ukrainians’ will to win.
And at the moment, no one is stopping him
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At least 14 killed in Kyiv attack
Ukraineis hitting back, particularly at Russia‘s oil installations, more of them going up in thick black smoke, after being hit by long-range Ukrainian drones.
It is taking a heavy toll on Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’, but on its own, analysts don’t expect it will be enough to persuade him to end this war.
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British Council building hit in Kyiv
The West can wring its hands in condemnation.
But it’s divided between Europe that wants a ceasefire and much more severe sanctions, and Donald Trump, who, it seems, does not – strangely always willing to sympathise with the Russians more than Ukraine.
He’s back to blaming Ukraine for starting the war, saying earlier in the week that Kyiv should not have got into a war it had no chance of winning.
It is a grotesque perversion of history. Ukraine, of course, had no choice but to fight to defend itself when it was invaded in an act of unprovoked aggression.
Every time the US president has condemned Russia for these kinds of attacks, he has never followed through and done nothing to punish them.
Image: Rescue workers carry an injured woman after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
More worryingly for the Ukrainians, the Russians are getting the upper hand in the drones war, taking Iranian technology and souping it up into faster-moving drones that the Ukrainians are having increasing difficulty bringing down.
They expect as many as a thousand drones a night coming their way by the winter, and many, many more innocents to die.
A war that began as one man’s mad idea has, in three and a half years, metastasised into a titanic struggle between east and west, fought increasingly with machines in a dystopian evolution of war.
If Mr Trump is not prepared to use his power to bring this war to an end, what will another three and a half years of his presidency bring?
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
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New details released of US school shooting
‘Our hearts are broken’
Harper’s parents, Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin, remembered her as “a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her”.
“Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper’s sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss. As a family, we are shattered, and words cannot capture the depth of our pain,” their statement said.
They urged leaders and communities to “take meaningful steps to address gun violence and the mental health crisis in this country.”
“Change is possible, and it is necessary – so that Harper’s story does not become yet another in a long line of tragedies,” the statement added.
Image: The family of Fletcher Merkel said there was a ‘hole in our hearts’. Pic: Family handout/AP
‘Fletcher loved his family’
In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.
He said: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.
“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”
Mr Merkel also praised “the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church”.
“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful,” he added.
Image: Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters
Mayor calls for assault weapon ban
It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.
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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.
“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
Police have released new details about the killer in the US Catholic school shooting – including that they “idolised” mass murderers and they wanted to “watch children suffer”.
Two children, aged eight and 10, were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
Image: Robin Westman
Almost 120 rifle rounds fired, police chief says
In a news conference on Thursday, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said the attacker fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added.
The police chief said the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
When asked about the attacker obtaining the firearms used legally, Mr O’Hara said that they did not have a criminal history or any diagnosed mental health disorders.
While they had potentially concerning social media posts, the police chief added that there was no evidence to suggest that Westman was legally barred from purchasing a firearm.
Image: People mourn outside the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis. Pic: Reuters
Suspect ‘wanted to watch children suffer’
Joe Thompson, acting US attorney for Minnesota, also said evidence recovered of the killer’s plans showed “pure indiscriminate hate” and that they “idolised some of the most notorious school shooters and mass murderers in our country’s history”.
“I won’t dignify the shooter’s words by repeating them,” Mr Thompson added. “They are horrific and vile, but in short, the shooter wanted to watch children suffer.”
Earlier, the mayor of Minneapolis called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons after the deadly attack, saying “thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it”.
“There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload,” Jacob Frey said.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
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6:34
Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at a news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
In a post on Facebook, the hospital said “there are no words to describe the overwhelming pain many are feeling”, adding: “We feel that pain with you.
“To the entire Annunciation community, you have our deepest condolences. During this time of unimaginable grief and loss, we want you to know that we at Children’s Minnesota are with you.
“We will always be here to care for you. And in this moment, we hurt alongside you.”