Germany: Europe’s largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession
Forget this week’s minor decrease in the UK inflation number.
The most important European data release was the confirmation from Germany that, during 2024, its economy contracted for the second consecutive year.
Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.2% during 2024 – on top of a 0.3% contraction in 2023.
Now it must be stressed that this was a very early estimate from Germany’s Federal Statistics Office and that the numbers may be revised higher in due course. That health warning is especially appropriate this time around because, very unexpectedly, the figures suggest the economy contracted during the final three months of the year and most economists had expected a modest expansion.
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If unrevised, though, it would confirm that Germany is suffering its worst bout of economic stagnation since the Second World War.
The timing is lousy for Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, who faces the electorate just six weeks from now.
Worse still, things seem unlikely to get better this year, regardless of who wins the election.
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Germany, along with the rest of the world, is watching anxiously to see what tariffs Donald Trump will slap on imports when he returns to the White House next week.
Germany, whose trade surplus with the United States is estimated by the Reuters news agency to have hit a record €65bbn (£54.7bn) during the first 11 months of 2024, is likely to be a prime target for such tariffs.
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Aside from that, Germany remains beset by some of the problems with which it has been grappling for some time.
Because of its large manufacturing sector, Germany has been hit disproportionately by the surge in energy prices since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, while those manufacturers are also suffering from intense competition from China. The big three carmakers – Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW – were already staring at a huge increase in costs because of having to switch to producing electric vehicles instead of cars powered by traditional internal combustion engines. That task has got harder as Chinese EV makers, such as BYD, undercut them on price.
Other German manufacturers – many of which have not fully recovered from the COVID lockdowns five years ago – have also been beset by higher costs as shown by the fact that, remarkably, German industrial production in November last year was fully 15% lower than the record high achieved in 2017.
German consumer spending, meanwhile, remains becalmed. Consumers have kept their purse strings closed amid the economic uncertainty while a fall in house prices has further depressed sentiment. While home ownership is lower in Germany than many other OECD countries, those Germans who do own their own homes have a bigger proportion of their household wealth tied up in bricks and mortar than most of their OECD counterparts, including the property-crazy British.
Consumer sentiment has also been hit by waves of lay-offs. German companies in the Fortune 500, including big names such as Siemens, Bosch, Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bahn, are reckoned to have laid off more than 60,000 staff during the first 10 months of 2024. Bosch, one of the country’s most admired manufacturing companies, announced in November alone plans to let go of some 7,000 workers.
More of the same is expected in 2025.
Volkswagen shocked the German public in September last year when it said it was considering its first German factory closure in its 87-year history. Analysts suggest as many as 15,000 jobs could go at the company.
Accordingly, hopes for much of a recovery are severely depressed.
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As Jens-Oliver Niklasch, of LBBW Bank, put it today: “Everything suggests that 2025 will be the third consecutive year of recession.”
That is not the view of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, whose official forecast – set last month – is that the economy will expand by 0.2% this year. But that was down from its previous forecast of 1.1% – and growth of 0.2%, for a weary German electorate, will not feel that different from a contraction of 0.2%.
And all is not yet lost. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than any of its peers. Meanwhile, one option for whoever wins the German election would be to remove the ‘debt brake’ imposed in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis, which restricts the government from running a structural budget deficit of more than 0.35% of German GDP each year.
The incoming chancellor, expected to be Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU/CSU, could easily justify such a move by ramping up defence spending in response to Mr Trump’s demands for NATO members to do so. Mr Merz has also indicated that policies aimed at supporting decarbonisation will take less of a priority than defending Germany’s beleaguered manufacturers.
But these are all, for now, only things that may happen rather than things that will happen.
And the current economic doldrums, in the meantime, will only push German voters to the extreme left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht or the extreme right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland.
Adele, the Grammy award-winning artist, has joined the list of music superstars investing in Audoo, a music technology company which helps artists to receive fairer royalty payments.
Sky News has learnt that the British musician and Adam Clayton, the U2 bassist, have injected money into Audoo as part of a £7m funding round.
The pair join Sir Elton John, Sir Paul McCartney and ABBA’s Bjorn Ulvaeus as shareholders in the company.
Changes to Audoo’s share register were filed at Companies House in recent days.
Audoo, which was established by former musician Ryan Edwards, is trying to address the perennial issue of public performance royalties, in order to ensure musicians are rewarded when their work is played in public venues.
Mr Edwards is reported to have been motivated to set up the company after hearing his own music played at football stadia and in bars, without any payment for it.
Estimates suggest that artists lose out on billions of dollars of unaccounted royalties each year.
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London-based Audoo uses a monitoring device – which it calls an Audio Meter – to recognise songs played in public venues, and which is said to have a 99% success rate.
It has struck what it describes as industry-first partnerships with organisations including the music licensing company PPL/PRS to track and report songs played in public performance locations such as cafes, hair salons, shops and gyms.
“At Audoo, we’re incredibly proud of the continued support we’re receiving as we work to make music royalties fairer and more transparent for artists and rights-holders around the world through our pioneering technology,” Mr Edwards told Sky News in a statement on Friday.
“We have successfully reached £7m in our latest funding round.
“This funding marks a pivotal moment for Audoo as we focus on our growth in North America and across Europe, bringing us closer to our mission of revolutionising the global royalty landscape.”
Sources said the new capital would be used partly to finance Audoo’s growth in the US.
The latest funding round takes the total amount of money raised by the company since its launch to more than $30m.
Mr Edwards has spoken of his desire to establish a major presence in Europe and the US because of their status as the world’s biggest recorded music markets.
Adele’s management company did not respond to an enquiry from Sky News.
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