India is staring at an ‘oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) during a visit to the shipyard Zvezda, as Rosneft Russian oil giant chief Igor Sechin (C) accompanies them, outside the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok on September 4, 2019, ahead of the start of the Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russia.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images
India’s days of buying cheap Russian oil could be over.
Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against Russia’s energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push up inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, analysts said.
The country could be looking at a potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“India will be more affected than China by sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than China,” he told CNBC.
Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183 vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted to offload crude oil until March 12.
The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed.
Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers, 75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas’ senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following the sanctions.
The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify, Spanier added.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
Oil prices year-on-year
The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.
Increasing demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels is set to spur this growth of 330,000 barrels per day this year — the most of any country, forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
India consumed 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, EIA’s most recent data showed. This consumption is expected to have increased by 220,000 barrels per day last year.
India wasn’t always this dependent on Russian oil.
As recently as 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of India’s oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had spiked to 37.6%, Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler told CNBC.
The catalyst for increased oil imports was the Ukraine war, which prompted some Western countries to impose sanctions against Russia and curtail their purchases of Russian crude. As prices of Russian oil fell, India was able to hoover up supplies cheaply from companies that were not under sanctions.
The discount of Russia’s crude, Urals, to the global benchmark Brent has averaged around $12 per barrel from last August to October, according to S&P Global’s most recently published data last November. In 2024, Russia’s Urals were also cheaper by $4 per barrel compared to oil from Iraq, one of India’s main sources of crude oil imports, data from Kpler showed.
“If India were to fully comply with U.S. sanctions, we could see a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in February and potentially March,” Xu added.
Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email.
No more cheap alternatives?
While the impact may eventually be mitigated as affected importers scramble to source alternative suppliers in the Middle East, some industry watchers say that the relief might still take a few weeks to months to materialize.
Even then, the price of oil from these alternative sources will not be as cheap. The world’s crude benchmark Brent recently advanced to a five-month high to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the sanctions, after a year of languishing from oversupply and weak demand.
Prices of Middle Eastern crude, which are amongst India’s alternatives, have also surged this week, data provided by Kpler suggested.
“Depending on how quickly Russia resolves its logistical challenges and how cooperative India and China remain with the sanctions, oil prices could spike for a few weeks,” Kpler’s Xu said.
Additionally, as Donald Trump’s inauguration draws closer, the world’s supply of cheap Iranian crude, is also facing the risk of tighter sanctions. Iran made up 4% of the world’s oil production in 2023, according to an EIA report released last year.
“It is [also] a bit of a double whammy for the key importer [India] as Iran will likely face new sanctions pressure with the incoming Trump administration,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.
If the new sanctions are coupled with a potential curb on Iranian crude, Brent prices could rise even higher to $90 per barrel, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published after the announcement of the sanctions.
An Indian economy pain point
The Indian economy is “significantly vulnerable” to fluctuations in oil prices, a research paper published in 2023 established. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel surge “like rockets” in response to rising crude oil prices, Abdhut Deheri, assistant economics professor at the Vellore Institute of Technology and M. Ramachandran from Pondicherry University’s department of economics said in the research paper.
Analysis from the Reserve Bank of India in 2019 found that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation.
“High oil prices, if passed to consumers, could further hurt their purchasing power at a time when income and GDP growth have slowed,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ.
However, weak consumer demand could deter producers from passing on the cost burden to consumers, which means it could dent companies’ profits instead, Nim added. Although if the government chooses to shoulder the additional costs, it would strain its finances.
Not only will China and India have to pay more for the oil they consume, they will need to pay more to have it delivered to their shores because oil tanker rates have also risen, said Andy Lipow, president of energy consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker rupee, the impact on the India economy will be magnified, said Lipow.
India’s rupee recently plunged to a record low as a result of pressure from a strong greenback and selling by foreign portfolio investors.
The country is no stranger to protests over high fuel prices. In 2018, widespread protests across the country against record-high petrol and diesel prices led to the closure of businesses and schools in several regions.
After logging more than 100 million all-electric miles with deployed fleet of battery-powered semi trucks, Volvo’s latest EV milestone can be found OFF the highway: the company’s new L90 Electric wheel loader has reached its first customers.
“This is a milestone for our wheel loader lineup,” reads Volvo CE’s announcement, on LinkedIn. “The first L90 Electric has entered customer service and it’s ready to work.”
Volvo first announced the new L90 Electric wheel loader at last summer’s Volvo Days event, with has dedicated electric motors for propulsion and hydraulics, enabling full available power to both systems, but enjoys a faster response and shorter cycle times than conventional models. The L90 Electric offers 4-5 hours of continuous operation across most applications, and up to 8 hours in lighter duty applications.
The announcement was followed with an expansion of the company’s Shippensburg, PA production facility, which seems complete (enough) that the battery electric construction vehicles are now reaching customers.
This first Volvo L90 Electric has been to work at a groundbreaking for a new data center (which, let’s face it, the world needs like a hole in the head), providing all the flexibility and functionality of a diesel machine with lower on-site emissions and significantly reduced noise.
Electrek’s Take
Volvo CE has one of the most comprehensive lineups of electric equipment in the business, and they’re constantly expanding it. That lineup now includes mobile charging solutions, trailered battery energy storage systems, and on-site power generation.
Fleets looking to electrify their off-highway operations should talk to their friendly neighborhood tax experts, too, to see if, when, and how they can save on their new electric vehicle purchases under the revised Section 179 and 168(k) tax codes.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo; via LinkedIn.
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For the last few weeks, we’ve been running a sidebar survey about some of the factors that are convincing Electrek readers to add home solar power systems to their homes. After receiving over a thousand responses, here’s what you told us.
Our last survey focused on the loss of the 30% federal home solar tax credit that’s set to expire at the end of this year. One of the commenters expressed frustration with the question, saying that – tax credit or no – there were still plenty of other good reasons to go solar.
When our readers share their great ideas with us, we listen, and our most recent survey asked, “The federal solar tax credit ends after December 31st, but there are still plenty of reasons to go solar. What’s YOUR reason?”
Why YOU choose solar
Perhaps the most surprising result of this survey is that, with just 32.6% of the votes, “Lowering my monthly utility bills” wasn’t the biggest overall reason for people choosing to go solar. That result proving, if nothing else, that Electrek readers might be willing to spend a little more to do something positive for their environment and their community.
“Energy independence and less reliance on the grid” was the top reason readers would add a solar system to their homes, with over 25% reporting that they were convinced about the value of solar because, “It’s the right thing to do, climate-wise.”
The final surprising result was that just 2.33% of respondents – just 25 Electrek readers – said that the improved resale value of home solar was your primary decision-driver.
Surprising, perhaps, not because of the solar panels themselves, but because it really is a buyers’ market these days, especially in sun-rich markets like Texas and Florida, which have flipped the script in recent months, posting huge inventory numbers and plunging real estate prices throughout the 2025 hurricane season.
“With a rate of 6.5% for a $1 million loan, the [monthly] payment is now significantly more than it was two years ago—$6,300 versus $4,200,” according to Ron Shuffield, the Miami-based president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty. “When we have this conversation with our sellers, they say, ‘Well, why can’t I get what my neighbor got two or three years ago?’ And then we say, ‘Well, because your buyer does not have the same amount of money.’”
In that context, I’d expect sellers would at least try to differentiate their properties with features like home solar and battery energy storage. But, then again, what do I know? You guys know stuff – let us know what you make of this little look into the minds of your fellow readers and what conclusions you’d draw in the comments.
Original content from Electrek.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Dario Amodei, co-founder and chief executive officer of Anthropic, at the World Economic Forum in 2025.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic is doing all it can to keep pace with larger rival OpenAI, which is spending money at a historic pace with backing from Microsoft and Nvidia. Of late, Anthropic has been facing an equally daunting antagonist: the U.S. government.
David Sacks, the venture capitalist serving as President Donald Trump’s AI and crypto czar, has been publicly criticizing Anthropic for what he’s called a campaign by the company to support “the Left’s vision of AI regulation.”
After Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, AI startup’s head of policy, wrote an essay this week titled “Technological Optimism and Appropriate Fear,” Sacks lashed out against the company on X.
“Anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear-mongering,” Sacks wrote on Tuesday.
OpenAI, meanwhile, has established itself as a partner to the White House since the very beginning of the second Trump administration. On Jan. 21, the day after the inauguration, Trump announced a joint venture called Stargate with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank to invest billions of dollars in U.S. AI infrastructure.
Sacks’ criticism of Anthropic hits on the company’s very foundation and its original reason for being. Siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei left OpenAI in late 2020 and started Anthropic with a mission to build safer AI. OpenAI had started as a nonprofit lab in 2015, but was rapidly moving towards commercialization, with hefty funding from Microsoft.
Now they’re the two most highly valued private AI companies in the country, with OpenAI commanding a $500 billion valuation and Anthropic capturing a valuation of $183 billion. OpenAI leads the consumer AI market with its ChatGPT and Sora apps, while Anthropic’s Claude models are particularly popular in the enterprise.
When it comes to regulation, the companies have very different views. OpenAI has lobbied for fewer guardrails, while Anthropic has opposed part of the Trump administration’s effort to limit protections.
Anthropic has repeatedly pushed back against efforts by the federal government to preempt state-level regulation of AI, most notably a Trump-backed provision that would have blocked such rules for 10 years.
That proposal, part of the draft “Big Beautiful Bill,” was ultimately abandoned. Anthropic later endorsed California’s SB 53, which would require transparency and safety disclosures from AI companies, effectively going in the opposite direction from the administration’s approach.
“SB 53’s transparency requirements will have an important impact on frontier AI safety,” Anthropic wrote in a blog post on Sept. 8. “Without it, labs with increasingly powerful models could face growing incentives to dial back their own safety and disclosure programs in order to compete.”
Anthropic didn’t provide a comment for this story. Sacks didn’t respond to a request for comment.
U.S. President Donald Trump sits next to Crypto czar David Sacks at the White House Crypto Summit at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
For Sacks, the priority in AI is to innovate as fast as possible to make sure the U.S. doesn’t lose to China.
“The U.S. is currently in an AI race, and our chief global competition is China,” Sacks said in an onstage interview at Salesforce’s Dreamforce conference in San Francisco this week. “They’re the only other country that has the talent, the resources, and the technology expertise to basically beat us in AI.”
But Sacks has adamantly denied that he’s trying to take down Anthropic in the process of lifting up U.S. AI.
In a post on X on Thursday, Sacks contested a Bloomberg story that linked his comments to growing federal scrutiny of Anthropic.
“Nothing could be further from the truth,” he wrote. “Just a couple of months ago, the White House approved Anthropic’s Claude app to be offered to all branches of government through the GSA App Store.”
Rather, Sacks claimed that Anthropic has cast itself as a political underdog, positioning its leadership as principled defenders of public safety while pursuing a public campaign that frames any pushback as partisan targeting.
“It has been Anthropic’s government affairs and media strategy to position itself consistently as a foe of the Trump administration,” Sacks said. “But don’t whine to the media that you’re being ‘targeted’ when all we’ve done is articulate a policy disagreement.”
Sacks pointed to several examples of what he sees as adversarial actions. He referenced Dario Amodei’s comparison of Trump to a “feudal warlord” during the 2024 election. Amodei publicly supported Kamala Harris’ campaign for president.
Sacks also referenced op-eds the company ran opposing key parts of the Trump administration’s AI policy agenda, including its proposed moratorium on state-level regulation and elements of its Middle East and chip export strategy. Anthropic also hired senior Biden-era officials to lead its government relations team, Sacks noted.
The AI czar took particular umbrage to Clark’s essay and his warnings about the potentially transformative and destabilizing power of AI.
“My own experience is that as these AI systems get smarter and smarter, they develop more and more complicated goals. When these goals aren’t absolutely aligned with both our preferences and the right context, the AI systems will behave strangely,” Clark wrote. “Another reason for my fear is I can see a path to these systems starting to design their successors, albeit in a very early form.”
Sacks said such “fear-mongering” is holding back innovation.
“It is principally responsible for the state regulatory frenzy that is damaging the startup ecosystem,” Sacks wrote on X.
Anthropic has also stayed away from actions that many other tech companies have taken explicitly to appease Trump.
Leaders from Meta, OpenAI, and Nvidia have courted Trump and his allies, attending White House dinners, committing tens of billions of dollars to U.S. infrastructure projects, and softening their public postures. Amodei wasn’t invited to a recent White House dinner involving numerous industry leaders, the company confirmed to The Information.
Still, Anthropic continues to hold major federal contracts, including a $200 million deal with the Department of Defense and access to federal agencies through the General Services Administration. It also recently formed a national security advisory council to align its work with U.S. interests, and began offering a version of its Claude model to government customers for $1 per year.
But Sacks isn’t the only influential Republican tech investor voicing his critique of the company.
Keith Rabois, whose husband works in the Trump administration, waded into the mix this week.
“If Anthropic actually believed their rhetoric about safety, they can always shut down the company,” Rabois wrote on X. “And lobby then.”
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