India is staring at an ‘oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) during a visit to the shipyard Zvezda, as Rosneft Russian oil giant chief Igor Sechin (C) accompanies them, outside the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok on September 4, 2019, ahead of the start of the Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russia.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images
India’s days of buying cheap Russian oil could be over.
Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against Russia’s energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push up inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, analysts said.
The country could be looking at a potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“India will be more affected than China by sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than China,” he told CNBC.
Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183 vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted to offload crude oil until March 12.
The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed.
Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers, 75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas’ senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following the sanctions.
The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify, Spanier added.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
Oil prices year-on-year
The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.
Increasing demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels is set to spur this growth of 330,000 barrels per day this year — the most of any country, forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
India consumed 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, EIA’s most recent data showed. This consumption is expected to have increased by 220,000 barrels per day last year.
India wasn’t always this dependent on Russian oil.
As recently as 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of India’s oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had spiked to 37.6%, Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler told CNBC.
The catalyst for increased oil imports was the Ukraine war, which prompted some Western countries to impose sanctions against Russia and curtail their purchases of Russian crude. As prices of Russian oil fell, India was able to hoover up supplies cheaply from companies that were not under sanctions.
The discount of Russia’s crude, Urals, to the global benchmark Brent has averaged around $12 per barrel from last August to October, according to S&P Global’s most recently published data last November. In 2024, Russia’s Urals were also cheaper by $4 per barrel compared to oil from Iraq, one of India’s main sources of crude oil imports, data from Kpler showed.
“If India were to fully comply with U.S. sanctions, we could see a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in February and potentially March,” Xu added.
Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email.
No more cheap alternatives?
While the impact may eventually be mitigated as affected importers scramble to source alternative suppliers in the Middle East, some industry watchers say that the relief might still take a few weeks to months to materialize.
Even then, the price of oil from these alternative sources will not be as cheap. The world’s crude benchmark Brent recently advanced to a five-month high to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the sanctions, after a year of languishing from oversupply and weak demand.
Prices of Middle Eastern crude, which are amongst India’s alternatives, have also surged this week, data provided by Kpler suggested.
“Depending on how quickly Russia resolves its logistical challenges and how cooperative India and China remain with the sanctions, oil prices could spike for a few weeks,” Kpler’s Xu said.
Additionally, as Donald Trump’s inauguration draws closer, the world’s supply of cheap Iranian crude, is also facing the risk of tighter sanctions. Iran made up 4% of the world’s oil production in 2023, according to an EIA report released last year.
“It is [also] a bit of a double whammy for the key importer [India] as Iran will likely face new sanctions pressure with the incoming Trump administration,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.
If the new sanctions are coupled with a potential curb on Iranian crude, Brent prices could rise even higher to $90 per barrel, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published after the announcement of the sanctions.
An Indian economy pain point
The Indian economy is “significantly vulnerable” to fluctuations in oil prices, a research paper published in 2023 established. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel surge “like rockets” in response to rising crude oil prices, Abdhut Deheri, assistant economics professor at the Vellore Institute of Technology and M. Ramachandran from Pondicherry University’s department of economics said in the research paper.
Analysis from the Reserve Bank of India in 2019 found that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation.
“High oil prices, if passed to consumers, could further hurt their purchasing power at a time when income and GDP growth have slowed,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ.
However, weak consumer demand could deter producers from passing on the cost burden to consumers, which means it could dent companies’ profits instead, Nim added. Although if the government chooses to shoulder the additional costs, it would strain its finances.
Not only will China and India have to pay more for the oil they consume, they will need to pay more to have it delivered to their shores because oil tanker rates have also risen, said Andy Lipow, president of energy consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker rupee, the impact on the India economy will be magnified, said Lipow.
India’s rupee recently plunged to a record low as a result of pressure from a strong greenback and selling by foreign portfolio investors.
The country is no stranger to protests over high fuel prices. In 2018, widespread protests across the country against record-high petrol and diesel prices led to the closure of businesses and schools in several regions.
GM may have decided to pull the plug on the forward-looking Chevy Brightdrop electric van a few months ago, but don’t let that stop you, but don’t let that fool you. Right now might be the best time ever to get your hands on one.
SKIP THE STORY: jump right to the deals (trusted affiliate link).
It’s hard to overstate how good the deals on Chevy’s Brightdrop got while GM was still trying to build up demand for its fleet-focused van, and now that the company has decided to stop production, the deals have gotten even better, with a newly announced $699 lease for 39 mo. with $2,999 down through January 2nd — and that’s before you factor in an additional $3,000 discount reserved for Costco Executive Members!
Despite that, I’ve heard more than one fleet manager express hesitation at the thought of adding a discontinued product to their fleet, even if it is a killer discount. To them, I offer the following, model-agnostic rebuttal:
Legacy brands support their products
Companies like GM aren’t going anywhere soon, and neither are the customers they’ve spent millions of dollars acquiring over the past several decades. They’ll keep building parts and offering service and maintenance on vehicles like the Brightdrop for at least a decade — not least of which because they have to!
GM sells each Brightdrop with a minimum 8 year/100,000 mile warranty on the battery and other key components, which can be extended either through GM itself or through reputable third-party companies like Xcelerate Auto for seven more.
There are precious few large fleets out there looking at 15 year, 200-plus thousand mile vehicle replacement cycles. For those that are, however, all indications so far are that the vehicle’s battery health and general performance will still be well within usable limits.
So, yes: parts longevity and manufacturer support will be there (something I’d be less confident about with a startup like Rivian or Bollinger, for example), but there’s more.
Section 179 and local incentives
The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025 gutted America’s energy independence goals and ensuring its auto industry would fall even further behind the Chinese in the EV race, but the loss of Section 45W wasn’t the only change written into the IRS’ rulebook. Section 179, an immediate expense reduction that business owners can take on depreciable equipment assets, has been made significantly more powerful for 2025.
The section 179 expense deduction is limited to such items as cars, office equipment, business machinery, and computers. This speedy deduction can provide substantial tax relief for business owners who are purchasing startup equipment.
The revised Section 179 tax credit (or, more accurately, expense reduction) allows for a 100% deduction for equipment purchases has doubled to $2.5 million, with a phase-out kicking in at $4 million of capital investments that drops to zero at $6.5 million. That credit and can be applied to new and used vehicles, as well as charging infrastructure, battery energy storage systems, specialized tools, and more (as long as they’re new to you).
What’s more, with regional incentives like the up to $15,000 off a new medium-duty van available from Illinois utility ComEd, the net cost of GM’s $699 promo lease drops to ~$315/mo., and there is still state money out there, as well, depending on where you live.
All of which is to say: don’t let a little thing like GM discontinuing the Brightdrop convince you to skip it. If you do that, the bean counters that killed off the Buick Grand National, GMC Syclone, and Pontiac Fiero win.
SOURCE | IMAGES: GM Envolve.
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US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on November 25 and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign reveal that, during the first nine months of 2025 and for the past year, solar and battery storage have dominated growth among competing energy sources, while fossil fuels and nuclear power have stagnated.
Solar set new records in September
EIA’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through September 30, 2025), once again confirms that solar is the fastest-growing source of electricity in the US.
In September alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (>1 megawatt (MW)) ballooned by well over 36.1% compared to September 2024, while “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 12.7%. Combined, they grew by 29.9% and provided 9.7% of US electrical output during the month, up from 7.6% a year ago.
Moreover, generation from utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic systems expanded by 35.8%, while that from small-scale systems rose by 11.2% during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 29.0% and produced a bit over 9.0% (utility-scale: 6.85%; small-scale: 2.16%) of total US electrical generation for January-September, up from 7.2% a year earlier.
And for the third consecutive month, utility-scale solar generated more electricity than US wind farms: by 4% in July, 15% in August, and 9% in September. Including small-scale systems, solar has outproduced wind for five consecutive months and by over 40% in September.
Wind leads among renewables
Wind turbines across the US produced 9.8% of US electricity in the first nine months of 2025 – an increase of 1.3% compared to the same period a year earlier and 79% more than that produced by US hydropower plants.
During the first nine months of 2025, electrical generation from wind plus utility-scale and small-scale solar provided 18.8% of the US total, up from 17.1% during the first three quarters of 2024.
Wind and solar combined provided 15.1% more electricity than did coal during the first nine months of this year, and 9.8% more than the US’s nuclear power plants. In fact, as solar and wind expanded, nuclear-generated electricity dropped by 0.1%.
Renewables are now only second to natural gas
The mix of all renewables (wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) produced 8.7% more electricity in January-September than they did a year ago, providing 25.6% of total US electricity production compared to 24.2% 12 months earlier.
Renewables’ share of electrical generation is now second to only that of natural gas, which saw a 3.8% drop in electrical output during the first nine months of 2025.
Solar + storage have dominated 2025
Between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 31,619.5 MW, while an additional 5,923.5 MW was provided by small-scale solar. EIA foresees continued strong solar growth, with an additional 35,210.9 MW of utility–scale solar capacity being added in the next 12 months.
Strong growth was also experienced by battery storage, which grew by 59.4% during the past year, adding 13,808.9 MW of new capacity. EIA also notes that planned battery capacity additions over the next year total 22,052.9 MW.
Wind also made a strong showing during the past 12 months, adding 4,843.2 MW, while planned capacity additions over the next year total 9,630.0 MW (onshore) plus 800.0 MW (offshore).
On the other hand, natural gas capacity increased by only 3,417.1 MW and nuclear power added 46.0 MW. Meanwhile, coal capacity plummeted by 3,926.1 MW and petroleum-based capacity fell by an additional 606.6 MW.
Thus, during the past year, renewable energy capacity, including battery storage, small-scale solar, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass, ballooned by 56,019.7 MW while that of all fossil fuels and nuclear power combined actually declined by 1,095.2 MW.
The EIA expects this trend to continue and accelerate over the next 12 months. Utility-scale renewables plus battery storage are projected to increase by 67,806.1 MW (a forecast for small-scale solar is not provided). Meanwhile, natural gas capacity is expected to increase by only 3,835.8 MW, while coal capacity is projected to decrease by 5,857.0 MW, and oil capacity is anticipated to decrease by 5.8 MW. EIA does not project any new growth for nuclear power in the coming year.
SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong said:
The Trump Administration’s efforts to jump-start nuclear power and fossil fuels are not succeeding. Capacity additions from solar, wind, and battery storage continue to dramatically outpace those from gas, coal, and nuclear, and by growing margins.
Read more: EIA: Solar + storage dominate, fossil fuels stagnate to August 2025
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The bZ3X is off to a strong start as Toyota’s most affordable electric SUV, starting at around $15,000 in China.
The bZ3X is a $15,000 Toyota electric SUV in China
Toyota’s joint venture, GAC Toyota, launched the bZ3X in China this March, an affordable, compact electric SUV aimed at young families.
The bZ3X is Toyota’s “first 100,000 yuan-level pure electric SUV,” starting at just 109,800 yuan, or roughly $15,000.
By May, the electric SUV was the best-selling foreign-owned EV in China, beating out the Volkswagen ID.3, Nissan N7, BMW i3, and Volkswagen ID.4 CROZZ.
According to the latest update, the bZ3X remains a hot seller. GAC Toyota announced that bZ3X sales exceeded 10,000 units for two consecutive months, with 10,010 units sold in November. Cumulative deliveries have now surpassed 62,000 units.
GAC Toyota recently put the electric SUV through rigorous testing on a winter road trip across China, “showcasing its impressive capabilities as a 100,000-yuan-class pure electric vehicle.”
Measuring 4,645 mm in length, 1,885 mm in width, and 1,625 mm in height, the bZ3X is about the same size as BYD’s popular Yuan Plus (sold as the Atto 3 overseas).
Inside, the electric SUV is a major upgrade over the Toyota vehicles we’re accustomed to, with advanced ADAS features, smart storage, and large digital screens.
The bZ3X is available in seven different trims in China, two of which include a LiDAR. Upgrading to the LiDAR version costs 149,800 yuan ($20,500).
Toyota’s electric SUV is available with 50.04 kWh and 67.92 kWh battery pack options, providing a CLTC range of 430 km (267 miles) and 610 km (379 miles), respectively.
Less than two weeks ago, GAC Toyota launched pre-sales for the bZ7, a new flagship electric sedan. According to Toyota, the new flagship EV “possesses a higher level of intelligence than any of Toyota’s offerings in global markets,” as the automaker fights to regain market share in China’s fierce auto market.
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