India is staring at an ‘oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) during a visit to the shipyard Zvezda, as Rosneft Russian oil giant chief Igor Sechin (C) accompanies them, outside the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok on September 4, 2019, ahead of the start of the Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russia.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images
India’s days of buying cheap Russian oil could be over.
Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against Russia’s energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push up inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, analysts said.
The country could be looking at a potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“India will be more affected than China by sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than China,” he told CNBC.
Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183 vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted to offload crude oil until March 12.
The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed.
Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers, 75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas’ senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following the sanctions.
The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify, Spanier added.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
Oil prices year-on-year
The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.
Increasing demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels is set to spur this growth of 330,000 barrels per day this year — the most of any country, forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
India consumed 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, EIA’s most recent data showed. This consumption is expected to have increased by 220,000 barrels per day last year.
India wasn’t always this dependent on Russian oil.
As recently as 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of India’s oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had spiked to 37.6%, Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler told CNBC.
The catalyst for increased oil imports was the Ukraine war, which prompted some Western countries to impose sanctions against Russia and curtail their purchases of Russian crude. As prices of Russian oil fell, India was able to hoover up supplies cheaply from companies that were not under sanctions.
The discount of Russia’s crude, Urals, to the global benchmark Brent has averaged around $12 per barrel from last August to October, according to S&P Global’s most recently published data last November. In 2024, Russia’s Urals were also cheaper by $4 per barrel compared to oil from Iraq, one of India’s main sources of crude oil imports, data from Kpler showed.
“If India were to fully comply with U.S. sanctions, we could see a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in February and potentially March,” Xu added.
Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email.
No more cheap alternatives?
While the impact may eventually be mitigated as affected importers scramble to source alternative suppliers in the Middle East, some industry watchers say that the relief might still take a few weeks to months to materialize.
Even then, the price of oil from these alternative sources will not be as cheap. The world’s crude benchmark Brent recently advanced to a five-month high to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the sanctions, after a year of languishing from oversupply and weak demand.
Prices of Middle Eastern crude, which are amongst India’s alternatives, have also surged this week, data provided by Kpler suggested.
“Depending on how quickly Russia resolves its logistical challenges and how cooperative India and China remain with the sanctions, oil prices could spike for a few weeks,” Kpler’s Xu said.
Additionally, as Donald Trump’s inauguration draws closer, the world’s supply of cheap Iranian crude, is also facing the risk of tighter sanctions. Iran made up 4% of the world’s oil production in 2023, according to an EIA report released last year.
“It is [also] a bit of a double whammy for the key importer [India] as Iran will likely face new sanctions pressure with the incoming Trump administration,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.
If the new sanctions are coupled with a potential curb on Iranian crude, Brent prices could rise even higher to $90 per barrel, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published after the announcement of the sanctions.
An Indian economy pain point
The Indian economy is “significantly vulnerable” to fluctuations in oil prices, a research paper published in 2023 established. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel surge “like rockets” in response to rising crude oil prices, Abdhut Deheri, assistant economics professor at the Vellore Institute of Technology and M. Ramachandran from Pondicherry University’s department of economics said in the research paper.
Analysis from the Reserve Bank of India in 2019 found that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation.
“High oil prices, if passed to consumers, could further hurt their purchasing power at a time when income and GDP growth have slowed,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ.
However, weak consumer demand could deter producers from passing on the cost burden to consumers, which means it could dent companies’ profits instead, Nim added. Although if the government chooses to shoulder the additional costs, it would strain its finances.
Not only will China and India have to pay more for the oil they consume, they will need to pay more to have it delivered to their shores because oil tanker rates have also risen, said Andy Lipow, president of energy consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker rupee, the impact on the India economy will be magnified, said Lipow.
India’s rupee recently plunged to a record low as a result of pressure from a strong greenback and selling by foreign portfolio investors.
The country is no stranger to protests over high fuel prices. In 2018, widespread protests across the country against record-high petrol and diesel prices led to the closure of businesses and schools in several regions.
President Trump has nominated Jonathan Morrison to lead the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Morrison has previously criticized and tussled with Tesla in his previous role at NHTSA.
Morrison is now Trump’s nominee to head the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which is in charge of regulating the auto industry in the US.
The attorney was the agency’s Chief Counsel during Trump’s first term, and he had a few disputes with Tesla during that time.
In September 2018, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its Tesla Model 3 crash test results, and the EV got five-star safety ratings in every category.
Tesla interpreted the data from the test and claimed that Model 3 achieved “the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA“.
Morrison sent Tesla a cease-and-desist letter over the claim, arguing that it was misleading.
The lawyers also subpoenaed Tesla to get data about a specific crash in 2019.
Next week, Morrison is expected to have his confirmation hearing in the Senate and could take up his role shortly after.
The nomination is significant in the context of the current feud between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Trump.
Musk has been criticizing Trump and his allies over their recently passed budget and tax bill, which is expected to significantly increase the federal government’s debt and eliminate virtually all subsidies to electric vehicles and renewable energy, potentially harming Tesla.
Trump has warned Musk that he could go directly after his companies and NHTSA would be the top vehicle for that when it comes to Tesla.
The agency had already launched several investigations into Tesla over the years, with the largest one examining Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program and several fatal crashes related to the ADAS system.
Electrek’s Take
Most NHTSA probes into Tesla have resulted in slaps on the wrist at best, but this FSD probe involves several fatal crashes, and even though it started under the Biden administration, it could potentially ramp up under Trump, especially amid his feud with Musk.
On the one hand, it’s disheartening to see the US reach this point, where feuds between billionaires and elected officials are settled through regulatory agencies. Still, at the same time, Musk did buy the election for Trump, so he created this situation in the first place, and there are serious concerns about how safe FSD is.
At the very least, I would hope that NHTSA will start to force Tesla to release all its FSD crash and disengagement data.
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You might remember the GEM as a quirky little electric microcar that’s been cruising through campuses, resorts, and planned communities for years. But now, it’s taking on a more serious job – saving lives. Waev Inc., the maker behind the long-running GEM electric vehicle line, has just unveiled the GEM Ambulance, a purpose-built, all-electric, street-legal low-speed vehicle (LSV) designed specifically for emergency medical services.
While it might not replace a full-size ambulance on high-speed highways, this new electric responder is tailor-made for the dense environments where conventional ambulances often struggle: college campuses, sporting events, entertainment venues, airports, and more. With a top speed of 25 mph, it’s built for maneuverability, safety, and zero-emission performance in pedestrian-heavy areas.
“The GEM Ambulance fills a critical gap in medical response – delivering the ideal balance of agility and safety EMS teams need in crowded settings,” said Byron Dudley, Vice President at Waev Inc.
The new GEM Ambulance is built on the same proven electric platform that has powered GEM vehicles for over 25 years. It’s a highly refined LSV that combines practical engineering with professional-grade EMS functionality. In partnership with emergency equipment supplier QTAC, Waev integrated a skid-mounted EMS system that includes secure patient transport, attendant seating, optional oxygen and IV mounts, and rugged PolyTough™ construction designed to handle demanding conditions.
Unlike golf carts or UTV-based setups that have been DIYed into emergency vehicles, the GEM Ambulance offers a more stable, comfortable, and professional platform. The EMS skid is positioned between the wheels for better weight distribution, and the vehicle’s low deck height and rear step-up provide easy access for patients and personnel alike.
The GEM Ambulance doesn’t skimp on emergency essentials either. It’s equipped with a 360-degree red emergency lighting system, an SAE Class 1-compliant siren with multiple sound patterns, a public address system, turn signals, LED headlights and taillights, and even a pedestrian noise emitter for quiet zones. A backup camera and full 360° sightlines give drivers added confidence when navigating tight environments.
And since it’s 100% electric, there’s no tailpipe emissions to worry about when operating indoors or in crowded spaces. Maintenance is minimal thanks to GEM’s maintenance-free batteries, regenerative braking, and corrosion-resistant aluminum frame. There’s even a seven-year warranty on the lithium-ion battery option.
The biggest surprise might be the price. According to Waev, the GEM Ambulance can cost up to 80% less than a traditional ambulance and 50% less than electric trucks or UTV-based alternatives. Plus, with operating costs of just $0.03 per mile, it promises long-term savings with no fuel, no fluids, and no downtime from engine servicing.
With applications ranging from college campuses and amusement parks to military installations and warehouse sites, the GEM Ambulance could be a game-changer for localized EMS response. It’s available now through GEM’s nationwide dealer network and can also be purchased through government contracts like Sourcewell, Texas BuyBoard, and GSA procurement channels.
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The Kia EV5 is officially heading to North America in early 2026, paving the way for a potential US launch. If so, it could go head-to-head with the Tesla Model Y.
Is Kia launching the EV5 in the US?
On Tuesday, Kia unveiled the new EV5, a global version of its electric SUV that has been sold in China since 2023.
Starting at around $20,000 (149,800 yuan), the EV5 is leading Kia’s comeback in China. It’s also a top-selling EV in Australia, where it’s exported from Kia’s Chinese joint venture, Yueda Kia.
The global version will be made in Korea with a few slight upgrades. For one, it’s powered by an 81.4 kWh nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) battery pack, rather than the BYD LFP Blade battery used in the version sold in China.
In Europe, the EV5 will be initially available in two variants: a baseline model and a GT-Line model. Both are powered by front-wheel drive (FWD) with up to 215 hp (160 kW) and 218 lb-ft (295 Nm) of torque.
The global version is 4,610 mm long, 1,875 mm wide, and 1,675 mm tall, or a bit smaller than the Tesla Model Y. It’s about the size of the Hyundai IONIQ 5.
Inside, you’ll find a setup similar to the EV9 and EV3, featuring Kia’s new ccNC (connected car Navigation Cockpit) infotainment system. The setup features a 12.3″ instrument cluster and a 12.3″ infotainment display in a panoramic format. There’s also an added 5.3″ climate control screen.
During the launch event, Kia said the “rollout begins” in Korea and Europe in the second half of 2025, adding North American sales will start in early 2026.
Does that include the US? I wouldn’t get my hopes up. In January, Kia announced the EV5 will be “exclusive to the Canadian market in North America.” It will begin arriving at dealerships in 2026.
However, it might make sense. The EV5 for North America will have a built-in NACS port, unlocking access to Tesla Superchargers. It will be available in both AWD and FWD powertrains. Two battery sizes will be offered, 60.3 kWh and 81.4 kWh, offering a range of up to 310 miles (500 km).
With sales of the EV6 and EV9 slipping nearly 50% each through the first half of the year in the US, the EV5 could complement the two.
Electrek’s Take
Although it’s still unlikely, the EV5 could serve as a potential electric alternative to the Sportage, Kia’s top-selling vehicle in the US.
Through June, Kia has sold over 87,000 Sportage models in the US. In comparison, it’s only sold 4,938 EV9s and 5,875 EV6 models.
Kia is launching the EV4, its first electric sedan, in the US early next year. However, a smaller compact electric SUV may be an even better fit.
It already builds the EV9 and EV6 in Georgia, so it could produce the EV5 in the US to avoid extra tariff costs. Or, it could even potentially be built at Hyundai’s new EV plant in Georgia. However, nothing is confirmed.
Would you buy the Kia EV5 in the US? Prices would likely start at around $50,000. Drop us a comment below and let us know your thoughts.
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